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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Christian Rodriguez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Rodriguez had been scheduled to face Garrett Armfield here, but Armfield withdrew due to a Staph infection and Weems was announced as the replacement on Tuesday. Rodriguez will be moving back down to 135 lb where he belongs, after losing a decision in his short notice UFC debut up at 145 lb on just six days’ notice against a tough/tall wrestler in Jonathan Pearce. That was Rodriguez’s first career loss after he won his first seven pro fights. Rodriguez originally tried to crack the UFC through DWCS, but wasn’t awarded a contract following an October 2021 decision win over Tracy Cortez’s older brother, Reyes Cortez Jr. Rodriguez notably missed weight for his DWCS fight, so he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins as he returns to 135 lb. Following the DWCS victory, Rodriguez returned to the regional scene for one fight, but after landing a first round submission win the UFC brought him on when they needed someone to fill a slot on short notice.
In Rodriguez’s last fight, Pearce looked for an early takedown, but Rodriguez locked up a guillotine choke as the fight hit the mat. Rodriguez looked very close to completing it, but Pearce was narrowly able to survive and control the remainder of the round on the ground. That ended up being the theme of the match, as Pearce landed 6 of his 10 takedown attempts with over 11 minutes of control time, but Rodriguez finished with three official submission attempts. We didn’t see much striking in the fight, with Rodriguez finishing ahead in significant strikes 26-18, but Pearce leading in total strikes 59-38. Pearce tired out down the stretch, but was still able to limp to a decision victory.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Rodriguez has three wins by TKO, three submissions, and one by decision. He has four first round finishes, although three of those occurred in his first three pro fights. He also has a second round submission win and a third round TKO. He’s fought anywhere between 135 lb and 150 lb in his career.
Overall, Rodriguez trains out of Roufusport in Milwaukee and appeared composed despite the loss in his UFC debut. While he’s primarily a striker, he is a BJJ purple belt and will look for defensive submissions to defend takedowns. Rodriguez is still just 24 years old and early in his career, so we’re more focussed on his future potential at this point than his past performances, as he should be making noticeable improvements between every fight. He does a good job of just touching his opponents, without loading up on his strikes. His defensive grappling also looks pretty solid, despite the fact that he got controlled for over 11 minutes by a much larger Jonathan Pearce in his UFC debut. We expect to see an improved version of Rodriguez here from the last time we saw him.
Joshua Weems
1st UFC Fight (0-0)The UFC was desperate to fill a slot on an already small card, which allowed Weems to get a shot in the UFC afterall, despite getting knocked out in the first round of a DWCS match in October 2021 against Fernie Garcia. Weems notably missed weight for that DWCS match by three pounds, which will be something to keep in mind as he prepares to make his UFC debut on just four days’ notice. Following that loss, Weems returned to the Mississippi regional scene and landed a pair of submissions.
In his last fight, Weems struggled to defend takedowns or land any of his own and was losing until he landed a late guillotine choke to steal the fight in the third round. He threw a ton of spinning kicks with very little success and generally struggled to get any offense going in the fight, outside of looking for defensive submissions off his back.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Weems has one TKO win (R1 2020), eight submission victories, and two decision wins. Both of his losses ended in knockouts, with one ending in round one and the other in round two. Nine of his last 10 fights have ended early and Weems rarely requires the judges.
Overall, Weems is a low-level fighter with poor striking who relies on landing defensive submissions to win fights. He throws a lot of kicks on the feet to try and disguise his lack of boxing ability and struggles both to land and defend takedowns. He’s spent his career fighting bad opponents on the Mississippi regional scene and got smoked when he faced a step up in competition on DWCS.
Fight Prediction:
Weems will have a 1” height advantage, but Rodriguez will have a 2” reach advantage. Rodriguez is four years younger than the 28-year-old Weems.
After making his UFC debut on short notice, Rodriguez will now be on the other side of the aisle as he steps into one of the more favorable spots you could ask for as he faces a low-level opponent in Weems, who’s making his debut on just four days’ notice. Weems has relied on landing submissions off his back to win fights, so it would make sense for Rodriguez to keep this fight standing, where he should be able to easily win the striking exchanges. While Rodriguez isn’t a huge power puncher, Weems’ chin has looked bad and cutting weight on short notice won’t help it any. We like Rodriguez to find a TKO finish, although it’s not impossible he looks to lock up a guillotine if Weems lands an unlikely takedown.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodriguez ITD” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Rodriguez couldn’t ask for a more favorable position to be in as he faces a low-level UFC newcomer who’s making his debut on just four days’ notice. Rodriguez showed the ability to stay safe on the mat against a much larger and more dangerous wrestler in Jonathan Pearce in his own short notice UFC debut, so he appears well equipped to stay out of danger against a far less talented grappler in Weems, who relies on landing hail mary submissions off his back to win fights. While we have total confidence in Rodriguez winning this fight, the only question is whether or not he can score enough to return value at his high price tag and end up in tournament winning lineups. He’s a fairly patient fighter, but six of his seven career wins have come early and Weems has been knocked out in both of his losses. We like Rodriguez’s chances of landing a knockout here, and it will just come down to whether or not he can outscore the majority of the other high priced fighters. The odds imply he has a 76% chance to win, a 45% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Weems has no business being in the UFC, but was available when the UFC was desperate to fill a slot so here he is. He’s shown poor striking, a suspect chin, and bad takedown defense/accuracy. He was losing his last two fights until he landed submissions off his back, after getting knocked out in two minutes on DWCS in 2021. We’ll be looking to target the opposition in DFS every time Weems fights until he inevitably gets cut when this first contract runs out. The only thing he has going for him here is that he’ll be low owned and has a history of landing submissions. Just keep in mind, this will be a big step up in competition for him and we’d be very surprised if he ever landed a submission in the UFC. The odds imply he has a 24% chance to win, a 15% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Carlos Mota
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut on less than a weeks’ notice, Mota is stepping in on short notice after Kleydson Rodrigues dropped out of this fight. Mota is two months removed from a highlight reel first round knockout victory to win the vacant LFA Flyweight belt. His last two and three of his last four wins have now ended in first round knockout wins.
In his last fight, things stayed entirely on the feet with Mota finding his striking rhythm early on. Mota initially stumbled his opponent to the mat with a straight left hand, which forced a desperation takedown attempt in response. Mota easily stuffed it and the fight stayed standing. Mota pushed forward, knowing he had his man hurt, and landed a clean lead left hook that immediately cadavered his opponent before he hit the mat as the fight ended midway through the first round in a near flawless performance.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Mota has four wins by KO and four decisions. His last three finishes all came in the first round, with his one other knockout ending in round two. While he’s never submitted anybody, he is a BJJ black belt and will look for submissions on the ground. The only loss of his career came in a January 2022 R5 TKO in an LFA title fight against Charles Johnson, who recently made his own UFC debut and lost a decision to Muhammad Mokaev. Mota has spent almost his entire career at 125 lb, but also has a 139 lb catchweight fight that he won by decision and actually fought all the way up at 145 lb in his second most recent fight and landed a 98 second first round KO.
Overall, Mota is a well rounded fighter who’s dangerous both on the feet and the mat. He’s been very active lately, and this will be his fourth fight this year. His last three and four of his last five bouts have ended in knockouts, and he’s only required the judges once since 2017. He started his career fighting for Shooto Brazil before joining the LFA in 2019. He also took one fight outside of the LFA earlier this year, with “North Iowa Fights.” That’s notably the only time he’s ever faced an opponent with a losing record in his career. While Mota seems like a decent talent, he’s certainly not a world beater and will be in a tough spot for his debut as he steps in on short notice. With that said, he’s actually lined as the favorite, which is very rare for a short notice debuting fighter.
Cody Durden
6th UFC Fight (2-2-1)Coming off a R1 TKO win over J.P. Buys, Durden’s last two fights have both ended in 68 seconds or less, and three of his last four have ended in under four minutes. Durden made his UFC debut against Chris Gutierrez in August 2020 and fought to a draw following a strong start in the first round. Then he got dunked on midway through the first round with a flying triangle submission by Jimmy Flick. Durden bounced back from the pantsing with a grappling-heavy decision win over Aoriqileng, before getting submitted again in the first round by a UFC newcomer, this time in Muhammad Mokaev who locked up a guillotine choke 58 seconds into the fight after catching Durden with a flying knee.
In his last fight, Durden found the mark with a pair of punches 30 seconds into the first round that hurt Buys. While Buys tried to recover, Durden dropped him a minute in and then unleaded with ground and pound until the fight was stopped just over a minute in. Durden finished ahead 23-7 in significant strikes and 34-7 in total strikes, while stuffing both of Buy’s desperation takedown attempts.
Now 13-4-1 as a pro, Durden has six wins by KO, five more by submission, and two decisions. He’s been submitted in three of his four losses, including in the first round in his last two defeats, while he also has one decision loss. Only five of his 18 fights have seen a third round. Nine of Durden’s 11 finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in each of the later rounds. His UFC debut took place at 135 lb before Durden dropped down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since. He mostly competed at 135 lb before he joined the UFC, losing his only pre-UFC 125 lb fight in a 2017 decision, leaving him just 2-3 at 125 lb in his career.
Overall, Durden is a former state champion high school wrestler who relies heavily on his wrestling, but did show the ability to find a finish with his striking alone in his last fight. He’s been prone to getting submitted and hasn’t shown the ability to escape chokes once they’re locked in. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 10 takedowns on 26 attempts (38.5% accuracy), while getting taken down twice himself on seven opponent attempts (71.4% defense). Durden generally does his best work early in fights and tends to slow down the longer they go.
Fight Prediction:
Durden will have a 1” height advantage, but Mota will have a 2.5” reach advantage. Mota is four years younger than the 31-year-old Durden.
It’s rare to see a fighter making their short notice debut end up as the favorite, but that’s exactly what we have here in Mota, so clearly the oddsmakers are giving him a lot of respect. One reason for that could be that Durden hasn’t shown great cardio in the past, so even if Mota isn’t as prepared to go three rounds as he would otherwise be with more time to prepare, we could see both guys slow down in the later rounds. With that said, the fight will need to get there first, and both of these two have seen their last two matches end in round one. Durden has been prone to getting choked out early in fights, and while Mota has no submission wins on his record, he is a BJJ black belt who will look for submissions on the mat. And if the fight stays standing, Mota has looked like a better striker than Durden. That should force Durden to take his chances on the mat and turn this into a wrestling match, where he’ll need to watch out for the submission attempts coming back his way. Mota has also shown the ability to reverse half-hearted takedown attempts from his opponents, which could play a factor if this makes it to the later rounds and his cardio holds up. Both of these two have seen their last three early wins end in the first round, so there’s a decent shot we see someone get finished early. Mota has looked pretty decent on tape and we could see this fight going either way, but we’re still taking Durden in this spot opposed to the guy who took the fight on five days’ notice. Give us Durden by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Durden DEC” at +360.
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DFS Implications:
Mota is an interesting fighter for DFS purposes as he lands a decent amount of volume, will mix in takedowns, and has shown good defensive grappling. While he doesn't have any submission wins on his record, he is a BJJ black belt and a threat to end fights on the mat. That’s notable considering Durden has been submitted in three of his four pro losses, with both of his UFC losses ending in first round submissions, with his opponents scoring 126 and 93 DraftKings points. Mota has also proven himself to be a dangerous striker and has multiple ways to finish a fight. Working against him, we expect Durden to be looking to take him down, which will make it tougher for Mota to score well in a decision, unless he’s able to control the grappling exchanges or find a finish. With Mota taking this fight on just five days’ notice, this should be treated as a high variance spot and you never know how fighters will react to the bright lights of the Octagon the first time they step inside. The odds imply Mota has a 60% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Durden has been a boom or bust fighter, with three of his last four fights ending in the first round (1-2). In his two UFC wins, Durden scored 112 and 93 DraftKings points, showing he can score pretty well even without a finish and also has a legit ceiling. However, he scored just 5 and 23 points in his two UFC losses, which both ended in first round submissions. So he has a non-existent floor but a solid ceiling. He relies heavily on his wrestling, which generally makes him a better play on Draftkings, and a little more reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. It’s rare we see the veteran show up as the underdog when facing a short notice replacement making their UFC debut, but that’s where Durden finds himself in this matchup. That gives off some trap vibes with Durden, but is also encouraging for his upside as we often see fighters struggle in their UFC debuts. Nevertheless, it doesn’t look like an easy matchup and we’re still treating Durden as a boom or bust option. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Chase Hooper
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Coming off his most impressive win to date, Hooper finally showed noticeably signs of improvement between his last two fights. He’s alternated wins and losses over his entire five-fight UFC career and this will be his chance to finally stitch two wins together. All three of his UFC victories have come early, with his last two finishes ending in round three, after the first of his career came in round one. Both of his UFC losses ended in decisions.
In his last fight, Hooper showed some improved striking, but still looked to drag the fight to the mat early on. However, he briefly ended up in bottom position following the initial attempt before the two returned to their feet. Hooper was able to catch a kick from Felipe Colares and use it to take the fight back to the ground, where he immediately took Colares’ back. However, Colares was able to turn into him and reverse the position as he turned into Hooper. The ref actually stood the fight up following a Colares fence grab as Hooper worked from the bottom, but Hooper immediately looked to engage in the clinch again. Once again he found himself in bottom position after attempting a takedown, but Hooper was the one attacking submissions regardless of the position. The fight continued to consist of crazy grappling scrambles, which wore on Colares, as Hooper kept a pace that Colares wasn’t prepared to keep up with. BY the third round Colares was completely exhausted and Hooper was able to patter away at him on the mat with ground and pound until the ref stopped the fight midway through the round. The fight ended with Hooper ahead 60-21 in significant strikes and 140-43 in total strikes. He landed four of his seven takedown attempts, while Colares landed two of his own takedowns on four attempts. Hooper also led in control time 7:04-4:14 and finished with three official submission attempts and five reversals, while Colares had three reversals.
Now 11-2-1 as a pro, Hooper has three wins by TKO, five by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have ended in decisions over his last three fights. After starting his career at 155 lb, Hooper dropped down to 145 lb in his fourth pro fight after finishing his first three opponents early. Both of Hooper’s UFC wins came against struggling opponents, with one combined UFC win between them, and neither guy ever fought again in the UFC following their losses to Hooper.
Overall, Hooper is a BJJ black belt and has historically struggled in the striking department. While he’s still not a good striker, he has shown signs of improvement as he’s worked with Stephen Thompson to improve his stand up game. Still just 23 years old, Hooper is still growing into his massive 6’1” frame for the 145 lb division. After only landing one takedown on 14 attempts between his DWCS appearance and first three UFC fights, Hooper has landed 7 on 15 attempts in his last two matches and has been steadily improving his takedown accuracy. He’s also great at fighting off his back and has no problem pulling guard or rolling for leg locks.
Steve Garcia
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Four months removed from the first KO loss of his career, Garcia is now moving back down to 145 lb, after going 1-2 at 155 lb in his first three UFC appearances. That recent defeat came just 74 seconds into the first round against a debuting 22-year-old in Maheshate. Prior to that defeat, Garcia had landed a second round TKO win of his own against a fragile Charlie Ontiveros, after losing a decision to Luis Pena in his 2020 UFC debut. Garcia’s last four wins have all come by TKO in the first round and a half of fights.
Garcia originally tried to make his way into the UFC through DWCS in 2019, but despite landing a first round knockout victory he still wasn’t rewarded with a UFC contract after missing weight by 3.5 lb for the 135 lb fight. After not getting a contract, Garcia then took a fight in the LFA in January 2020 up at 145 lb. Despite moving up to 145 lb, Garcia again missed weight, checking in a pound and a half over the limit. After fighting most of his career at 135 lb, with just a few fights at 145 lb (2-1), Garcia made his short notice UFC debut against Luis Pena in February 2020 up at Lightweight 155 lb, which was the first time Garcia had ever fought at the weight class. Pena smothered Garcia on the ground for the entire fight, finishing with over 14 minutes of control time on his way to winning a decision. Garcia then took 20 months off before returning to the Octagon in October 2021 for his second most recent match, also at 155 lb.
In his last fight, Garcia landed a couple of good shots early on, but then momentarily got sat down 30 seconds in. Garcia tried to tie things up against the fence to buy time to recover, but as soon as things returned to space Garcia got caught lunging in and put to sleep with a perfectly placed walk off right hand from Maheshate. The fight ended with significant strikes dead even at 7 apiece, with Garcia leading in total strikes 9-7 but getting knocked down twice in a fight that only lasted 74 seconds.
Now 12-5 as a pro, Garcia has nine wins by KO and three by decision. Four of those knockouts occurred in the first round, four ended in the first half of round two and one came in round three. He’s also been knocked out once and has been submitted another time, with both of the losses ending in under two minutes. The KO came in his recent fight against a debuting fighter and the submission was against a highly suspect Aalon Cruz in 2018. Garcia’s other three pro losses all ended in decisions. While Garcia’s last four wins have all ended in TKOs, it’s easy to poke holes in Garcia’s last three wins, as the last one came against a fragile Charlie Ontiveros, the one before that was a arguably a quick/bad stoppage, and just before that he weighed in at 139.5 lb to face a fighter who had largely been competing at 125 lb.
Overall, Garcia is an offensively minded brawler who throws punches with ill intentions as he looks to knockout every opponent he faces. His background is in kickboxing and after transitioning to MMA he spent a good chunk of time in Bellator before working his way into the UFC. He showed in his last fight he’s capable of taking fights to the mat and finishing opponents with ground and pound, but that’s essentially the extent of his grappling from what we’ve seen. After just losing to the 22-year-old Maheshate, Garcia will now face another young opponent in the 23-year-old Hooper.
Fight Prediction:
Hooper will have a 1” height advantage, while Garcia will have a 1” reach advantage. Garcia is seven years older than the 23-year-old Hooper.
This sets up as a striker versus grappler battle, but Garcia has shown solid ground and pound on the mat if he ends up in top position. While we’ve seen Hooper get beat up at times in the past due to his lack of striking, he’s still never been finished and he’s essentially a poor man’s Charles Oliveira as he can just flop to his back after getting hurt and most opponents won’t want to join him on the mat. That leaves opponents needing to either land a clean KO on the feet or risk getting submitted as they look for a finish on the ground. Garcia is a dangerous striker who also has good ground and pound, but he doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling and we saw him get controlled on the ground for the entire fight in his UFC debut. He also has an early submission loss on his record, which is the most likely outcome here if Hooper can get the fight to the ground in the first round. With Garcia dropping down a weight class, we also wonder how his cardio and chin will hold up. While Hooper isn’t going to be landing any bombs on the feet, he will push a crazy pace on the mat that will test Garcia’s cardio. That increases the chances for a late finish if the fight makes it that long, and Hooper’s last two early wins both came in round three. With that said, we like him to submit Garcia before the fight makes it that far, with a good chance it comes in round one.
Our favorite bet here is “Hooper ITD” at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Despite his grappling-heavy approach to fighting, Hooper has been a boom or bust DFS play with DraftKings scores of 143, 51, 74, 33, and 112 in his five UFC fights. However, he is coming off a career performance where he scored 143 DraftKings points and 125 points on FanDuel. That was heavily bolstered by an insane five reversals and three submission attempts, in addition to a ton of ground strikes, takedowns, and control time. That win came against a fellow grappler, which is why we saw so many reversals in the match, and prior to that Hooper only had two reversals in his first four UFC fights combined. So it’s not a stat you want to chase, however, the increased number of ground strikes were very encouraging for his future DraftKings scoring potential and that’s something he said he’s been working on. While he looked to be improving his striking in his last fight, he still relies on his grappling to win and has yet to top 74 DraftKings points in fights that go the distance. While this does look like a goods spot for him to find success on the mat as he squares off against a striker in Garcia, keep in mind Hooper is fine looking for submissions off his back or rolling for leg locks, so there are still ways he fails to return value at his high price tag even if he does land an early finish. The field is sure to chase his monster performance in his last fight, so expect him to be very popular, which lowers his tournament appeal. He’s also an unlikely candidate to ever land a knockdown, so he likely needs a dominant grappling performance and a well-timed finish to crack tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Garcia has only been to one decision in his last six fights and he’s even more boom or bust than Hooper. His last four wins have all ended in TKOs, but he’s also lost two of his last three fights and was violently knocked out four months ago in the first KO loss of his career. He’s now dropping down to 145 lb, where he was submitted earlier in his career, and looked rough on the scale. We also saw Garcia get controlled for 14 minutes on the mat in his 2020 UFC debut, so overall he doesn't have a lot going for him. With that said, he is a much more dangerous striker than Hooper and if he can keep the fight standing he should be the one inflicting far more damage. However, Garcia has often relied on landing ground and pound to look for finishes, and that will be a dangerous position for him to be in in this matchup, as Hooper is excellent off his back. That will make it even tougher for Garcia to hand Hooper the first early loss of his career, but Garcia does set up as an interesting leverage play and has clear finishing upside if the weight cut didn’t take it out of him. The odds imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Junyong Park
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Coming off a close/questionable split-decision win over Eryk Anders, Park has won four of his last five fights, with his one loss over that stretch coming in a R2 KO against Gregory Rodrigues in his second most recent fight. That’s the only time Park has ever been knocked out in his career, and he was close to finishing Rodrigues before having the tables turned on him in what turned into a wild back and forth brawl down the stretch.
In his last fight, Park was forced to defend takedowns all fight, as Anders finished with 24 takedown attempts, but was only able to land three of them with 4:45 in control time. Park failed to land his only takedown attempt in the fight, but did finish ahead in significant strikes 105-65 and in total strikes 108-75. One judge gave the fight to Anders, but the other gave it to Park.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Park has five wins by KO, three by submission, and six decisions. However, he’s still in search of his first UFC early win and his last finish came in a 2018 R1 TKO in his last fight before joining the UFC. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses have come in the second round. The one time Park was finished prior to joining the UFC came in a 2016 R2 rear-naked choke against Shavkat Rakhmonov, who’s now murdering everyone in his path in the UFC. Park was then submitted in the second round of his UFC debut by Anthony Hernandez, before getting knocked out in the second round by Gregory Rodrigues in his most recent loss. Nine of Park’s last 10 fights have made it to the second round, with six seeing round three, and five going the distance. Park spent a portion of his early career fighting at 170 lb before settling in at 185 lb in 2018. He went 5-1 at 170 lb with his lone loss ending in a split decision and four of those five wins coming early. He’s also had three fights at 174-176 lb, where he went 2-1, with all three fights ending early. He competed four times at 185 lb prior to joining the UFC, winning the last three of those, with two of those wins coming by KO. All six of his UFC fights have also been at 185 lb, where he’s gone 4-2, bringing his career 185 lb record to 7-3. Only two of his career finishes have come at 185 lb.
Overall, Park seems slightly undersized at 185 lb and is generally grinding out decisions with a mix of takedowns and striking. He’s generally a patient fighter who doesn't look for finishes, but we did see him let loose in his fight against Rodrigues before eventually getting finished. Park has only been taken down 12 times on 41 opponent attempts (70.7% defense), although 21 of those 29 misses came from Anders in his last fight and prior to that Park had just a 47.1% defense. Park has landed 11 takedowns of his own on 20 attempts (55% accuracy) and has been very smart/strategic as to when he looks to wrestle. In his fights against Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues, who are both grapplers, Park didn’t attempt a single takedown. However, in his fights against one dimensional strikers in Marc-Andre Barriault, John Phillips, and Tafon Nchukwi, Park landed 11 takedowns on 19 attempts. So he’s generally only been looking to take strikers down, although it will be interesting to see if he perceives his next opponent to be more of a threat on the feet or the mat.
Joseph Holmes
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to build some momentum as he comes off his first UFC win, Holmes was gifted Alen Amedovski, one of the worst fighters that’s been allowed to step inside the Octagon. Holmes at least capitalized on the opportunity with a first round submission win, but get in line. Prior to that, Holmes lost a decision to Jamie Pickett in his UFC debut, after winning seven straight fights following a decision loss in his 2019 pro debut.
In Holmes’ last fight, Amedovski tried to be the aggressor as he pushed forward and walked Holmes up against the cage, but his plan backfired as Holmes caught him coming in with a knee that sat Amedovski down and had him badly hurt. Holmes went in looking for ground and pound to try and find a finish, but Amedovski returned to his feet before Holmes dragged him back to the mat. As Amedovski again tried to return to his feet, Holmes got his arm under his neck and locked up a no-hooks rear-naked choke. The fight ended with Holmes ahead 16-1 in striking, while he landed his only takedown attempt with 21 seconds of control time.
Now 8-2 as a pro, Holmes has two wins by TKO and six by submission. Both of his TKO wins occurred in round one as did three of his submission victories. His other three submission wins occurred midway through the second round. Holmes generally fights at 185 lb, but has fought anywhere from 170 lb to 200 lb in the past. He’s lost both of the decisions he’s been to, but has never been finished.
Overall, Holmes is a work in progress who needs to improve both his wrestling and striking. Still just 26 years old, he appears to have all of the physical tools to be a dangerous UFC fighter and at 6’4” and he’s got good size for the Middleweight division. However, he’s still very raw in all facets of his game. He does train out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, so we expect to see improvements in Holmes’ game every time he steps inside the Octagon, but he only joined the UFC nine months ago. With a background in Jiu-Jitsu, he’s most comfortable on the mat looking for rear-naked chokes, but he struggled to get the fight to the ground in his recent debut. His cardio is also a concern and he looked to be fading early in the second round of that recent fight. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Holmes has been taken down twice on five opponent attempts (60% defense) and landed three takedowns of his own on eight attempts (37.5% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Holmes will have a sizable 6” height advantage and 7” reach advantage. He’s also four years younger than the 31-year-old Park.
These two are on opposite ends of the size spectrum at 185 lb, so it will be interesting to see what Park does to try and overcome that disadvantage. He has the ability to both strike and wrestle, but we’ve yet to see him try to take any grapplers down. Holmes likes to look for submissions on the mat, so it’s hard to know what level of respect Park will show him. Park is the more technical striker and also has much better cardio, while Holmes is just massive and physically gifted. From a technical standpoint, we expect Park to be the better striker, but he’ll need to be careful not to take a knee to the face or allow Holmes to land too many clean shots. Working in Park’s favor, Holmes slows down in the back halves of fights and we expect Park to take over down the stretch. That will leave Holmes reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds, or winning both of those rounds on the scorecards and limping to a decision to pull off the upset. We have seen Park get submitted twice before, but both of those times were against much better grapplers than Holmes. We like Park to win by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Park DEC” at +130.
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DFS Implications:
Park has been a decision grinder since moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb in 2018 and has just two career finishes at the higher weight class. In his four UFC decision wins, Park has shown a decent scoring floor through a combination of striking and grappling, with DraftKings totals of 79, 77, 128, and 93. The one explosion spot came against a horizontally challenged John Phillips, who got mauled on his back for the entire fight. We’re not expecting to see that type of performance here, although if Holmes gasses out in the third round, we could see Park fill up the stat sheet at that point. However, more likely, Park will struggle to return value at his expensive price tag as we rarely see him empty the tank and he’s typically content with grinding out decisions. Other than his cardio and technical striking advantages, the one thing he has going for him in DFS is that he’ll be low owned on a slate where it’s crucial to try and find some low owned plays to avoid a highly duped winning tournament lineup. Holmes is still very green and it’s possible Park looks to make a statement performance here, so we do have some hope that he puts on a more impressive performance than his last one. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Holmes is coming off his first UFC win in a layup spot against Alen Amedovski and scored 112 DraftKings points in the 64 second first round submission win. He’ll face a much tougher opponent here, so we wouldn’t count on similar results. With that said, Park has been submitted twice in the past and Holmes has a 100% finishing rate in his eight career wins, with six coming by submission. So if the physical size of Holmes can overcome the experience of Park, it’s always possible he just big brothers his way to a finish. The downside of Holmes—other than him being pretty terrible—is that the field will likely chase his recent scoring explosion to some extent, especially at his cheap price tag. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see him getting left out of winning lineups if he finds a finish here. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
15th UFC Fight (8-6)Looking to bounce back from a May 2022 decision loss to an indestructible Blagoy Ivanov, De Lima hasn't lost two fights in a row since 2012, but has also only won two in a row once since 2014, as he’s spent most of his career alternating wins and losses. Prior to his recent decision loss, De Lima knocked out a previously very durable Ben Rothwell in just 32 seconds after controlling Maurice Greene for 15 minutes on the mat in a decision win. While his last loss came in a decision, his other five UFC defeats all ended in submissions.
In his last fight, started strong, as he typically does, outlanding Ivanov 25-12 in striking in round one, while also defending both of his takedown attempts. De Lima didn’t look for any takedowns of his own in the round and appeared content with keeping the fight standing early on. Ivanov continued to look for takedowns in round two with no success. However, Ivanov was able to start doing damage on the feet as De Lima began to slow down midway through the fight. De Lima tried to get the fight to the mat in the third round, but despite Ivanov looking for a guillotine, the ref broke the fight up and pulled them off the fence. De Lima quickly looked to engage in the clinch again, but ended up getting reversed and pressed against the cage himself. De Lima finally landed the only takedown of the fight in the closing seconds, but was unable to do anything with it as time expired and all three judges awarded Ivanov the final two rounds as he won a unanimous 29-28 decision.
Now 19-8-1 as a pro, De Lima has 14 wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Despite being a BJJ “black belt” De Lima has been submitted in five of his eight pro losses and looks helpless off his back. He’s also been knocked out once (2012) and has two decision losses. However, he’s won two of the last three decisions he’s been to and his only decision loss since 2011 came in his last fight. All five of his submission losses have come in the first two rounds, with three in round one and two in round two. His last five wins and 9 of his last 10 have all ended in either first round knockouts or decisions. De Lima’s UFC wins have come against a series of questionable opponents, six of whom didn’t fight again in the UFC with the other two combining to go 1-3 after losing to De Lima.
De Lima worked his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2014, where despite getting submitted by Antonio Carlos Junior in his third fight on the show, he still got the chance to make his UFC debut just a couple of weeks later. He was competing as a somewhat undersized Heavyweight at the time, and tipped the scales at just 235 lb for his debut, which he won with a lightning fast 20 second R1 KO. He then dropped down to Light Heavyweight for his next six fights, where he went 3-3, before moving back up to Heavyweight in 2018 after he missed weight by four pounds in back-to-back fights trying to make Light Heavyweight. All six of his fights at Light Heavyweight ended early, including five in round one and one in round two. After fighting at 235 lb in his UFC debut at Heavyweight, De Lima shot up to 253 lb in his 2018 return to the weight class and has recently been as heavy as 264.5 lb. In his seven fights since returning to Heavyweight, De Lima has fought to three decisions (2-1), has landed two first round knockouts, and has been submitted twice (both times in under 1.5 rounds).
Overall, De Lima’s fight strategy appears to be to look for knockouts early in fights before settling into riding out top position on the mat. However, when he gets reversed or taken down himself it almost always ends up with him getting submitted and he’s terrible off his back. He’s a fast starter with bad cardio and tires out in the back half of fights. He hasn’t finished anybody beyond the first round since 2010..
Andrei Arlovski
38th UFC Fight (22-14, NC)Entering his 38th UFC fight on a four fight winning streak and now 43 years old, Arlovski has been on the winning end of multiple close decisions, with his last two being split. With that said, he’s still impressively won 6 of his last 7 fights, with his only loss since 2019 coming in a 2021 R2 submission against Tom Aspinall. Arlovski’s last 10 victories have all gone the distance, while his last two losses have both come in under seven minutes.
In Arlovski’s last fight, Collier took an early lead in striking and control time as he pushed Arlovski up against the fence. Arlovski narrowed the striking lead in round two, and striking was dead even in round three, but Collier landed a takedown in each of the later two rounds. In the end, Collier finished ahead in significant strikes 93-91, in total strikes 132-105, in takedowns 2-0, and in control time 3:28-0:01. He was also the one pushing forward more in the fight, but two of the three judges still thought Arlovski had done enough to win the fight.
Now 34-20 as a pro, Arlovski has 17 wins by KO, three by submission, and 14 decision victories. He’s also been knocked out 11 times, submitted twice, and has seven decision defeats. Arlovski originally joined the UFC in 2000, but left the organization in 2008, before returning in 2014. He won his first four fights back in 2014 and 2015, including a pair of first round knockouts, but has since gone 9-10 plus a No Contest, which was originally a decision loss.
Overall, Arlovski is a well seasoned vet who has made it to the judges in 14 of his last 16 fights, with the two exceptions being a pair of early losses to Tom Aspinall and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He has a way of drawing lower level opponents into slower paced matches that allow him to rely more on his experience than his athleticism. He doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to end fights early at this stage in his career, but he’s also been a tough guy to put away lately. In his last 32 fights, over the course of the last decade, the only people to knock Arlovski out are Stipe Miocic (2016 R1), Alistair Overeem (2016 R2), Francis Ngannou (2017 R1), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2019 R1). He was also submitted by Aspinall in his most recent loss. Arlovski has really struggled with the top guys in the division, but has been able to take his non-elite opponents to decisions and has quietly been on a bit of a run as he’s gone 6-1 in his last six fights. However, he’s really been scraping the bottom of the Heavyweight division lately and has been facing a series of strikers who generally also fight to decisions. Arlovski has only had four takedowns attempted against him in his last eight fights, and three of those were successful. So while he has a 76% career takedown defense, it’s been far less effective lately. He’s just 1-5 in his last six fights where he’s been taken down at least once, with the one win coming in his recent split-decision victory. He hasn’t landed a takedown of his own in his last 11 fights, and has relied on pointing his way to victory in low-volume striking battles.
Fight Prediction:
Arlovski will have a 2” height and reach advantage, while De Lima is six years younger than the 43-year-old Arlovski.
De Lima basically has a five minute window to finish opponents before he gets too tired to land a finish. He’s still shown the ability to limp to decision wins, but he hasn’t landed a finish beyond the first round since 2010. We expect him to be looking to wrestle more in this matchup than he was in his last fight, at least assuming he does land a quick knockout on the feet. While Arlovski has a 76% career takedown defense, it’s been somewhat shaky lately and he’s been taken down on three of his last four opponent attempts and got quickly submitted in his 2021 loss to Tom Aspinall as soon as the fight hit the mat. No one has knocked Arlovski out on the feet since 2019 when Jairzinho Rozenstruik landed a 29 second KO, so he’s been fairly durable in striking battles. Just keep in mind, he’s been fighting a lot of low-level decision grinders lately and De Lima hits harder than any of Arlovski’s recent opponents not named Tom Aspinall.
That makes a finish on the mat more likely than a knockout on the feet, but De Lima hasn’t submitted anybody since 2016 and has been largely content with sitting in top position in recent fights where he’s landed a takedown. He’s actually only landed a takedown in three of his 14 UFC fights, and all three of those matches went the distance (2-1). Arlovski is just 1-5 in his last six fights where he got taken down, so if De Lima is unable to find a knockout in the first round, there’s a good chance he just tries to ride out a decision on the mat. However, if he’s unable to get the fight to the ground, look for Arlovski to take over in the later rounds as De Lima predictably slows down. It’s an interesting live betting opportunity on Arlovski’s side of things and he’s the king of winning close decisions, but we still like De Lima to win this fight, either with a first round knockout or in a decision where he’s able to get the fight to the ground. However, if the fight does go the distance, there’s a good chance the last two rounds are close and a split decision is very possible.
Our favorite bet here is “De Lima R1 Win” at +320.
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DFS Implications:
De Lima has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his eight UFC wins and has been submitted in five of his six UFC losses. He typically aggressively hunts for first round knockouts, but will also sometimes look to grind opponents out on the mat for 15 minutes. Both of those tend to score well, especially on DraftKings, but he’s more dependent on a finish on FanDuel. He’s scored 95 or more DraftKings points in 7 of his 8 UFC wins, with six scores of 106 or more and four of 113 or greater. So he has massive upside and a grappling based floor when he wins, but has also been incredibly prone to gassing out and getting submitted, which generally makes it tough to trust him. Working in his favor here, Arlovski hasn’t submitted anybody since 2005 or knocked anybody out since 2015. So it’s unlikely we see De Lima get finished, which makes him a safer play in this spot. With that said, Arlovski is a really tough guy to score well against as he tries to slow down fights and grind out decision wins. It will be interesting to see how effective of a strategy that can be against a fast starter like De Lima, but Arlovski’s history of making fights ugly is certainly concerning for De Lima’s scoring potential if he can’t find a finish in the first round. It’s been three years since Arlovki has been finished in round one or knocked out, so he hasn’t been an easy guy to put away, but De Lima is also more of a finishing threat than any of Arlovski’s other recent opponents, other than Tom Aspinall. While Arlovski does have a 76% career takedown defense, he’s only stopped one of the last four attempts against him and that may be wearing down at this stage in his career. However, if De Lima gasses out as we expect midway through the fight, he still could struggle to land takedowns late in the match, lowering his scoring potential some in a decision. Everyone knows Arlovski is hard to score well against, so one of the best things De Lima has going for him on this smaller slate is that he shouldn’t be extremely highly owned, despite his massive ceiling. The odds imply he has a 69% chance to win, a 37% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Arlovski has averaged just 67 DraftKings points in his last 10 wins, with all of those victories ending in decisions. He failed to top 74 points in the last six of those and hasn’t finished anybody since 2015. While De Lima has been submitted in five of his six UFC losses, the 43-year-old Arlovski hasn’t submitted anybody since 2005 and is unlikely to capitalize on that. One thing Arlovski has working in his favor is that De Lima tends to gas out after the first round, so there’s always a chance Arlovski can come up big in the back half of the fight to boost his score in a decision win. And on a smaller slate, there’s always a chance he can serve as a value play in a decision win if we only see a few dogs win overall. Nevertheless, he’s a low floor, low ceiling play with a narrow path to victory. The odds imply he has a 31% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Phil Hawes
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Hawes is fresh off an absolutely dominant performance against Deron Winn that he capped with a late second round TKO. Prior to that career performance, Hawes suffered his only UFC loss in a R1 KO against UFC newcomer Chris Curtis. Leading up to that loss, Hawes had won seven straight fights and started 3-0 in the UFC. He knocked out Jacob Malkoun in his UFC debut, and then won a pair of grappling-heavy decisions over Nassourdine Imavov and Kyle Daukaus.
In his last fight, Hawes sat Winn down with an elbow early in the first round and stumbled him again a minute or so later as Hawes landed almost everything he threw. Hawes did a great job of mixing in elbows and punches throughout the fight and dictated the action from start to finish as he teed off on Winn for the entire fight. Known for his wrestling, Winn never even attempted a takedown in the fight, while Hawes landed one of his three attempts. After outlanding Winn 55-17 in significant strikes in the first round, Hawes continued with non stop pressure in round two, outlanding Winn 63-15 before the fight was stopped late in the round as Hawes teed off with elbows. The fight ended with Hawes ahead 118-32 in significant strikes and 126-34 in total strikes.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Hawes has eight wins by KO, two by submission, and two decisions. He’s been finished in the first two rounds in all three of his losses, with two KOs and one submission. Eight of his last nine fights either ended in round one (5-1) or went the distance (2-0), although his most recent win ended in round two.
Overall, Hawes is a powerful striker with a background in wrestling. Hawes has yet to be taken down in the UFC or in either of his DWCS appearances, but the only person to try was Kyle Daukaus (31% career takedown accuracy), who went 0 for 7 on his attempts. We’ve seen Hawes get hurt at multiple points in the past and his chin and late round cardio remain his biggest liabilities.
Roman Dolidze
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off his first early win since dropping down to 185 lb, Dolidze became the first fighter to ever finish Kyle Daukaus and it only took 73 seconds as Dolidze ended things with a R1 KO. That finish came just over a year after Dolidze won a boring decision grappling-heavy over Laureano Staropoli. Dolidze had looked significantly worse after moving down from 205 lb to 185 lb for his two previous fights leading up to his recent finish. He made his UFC debut at 205 lb in July 2020 and landed a first round knockout against a terrible Khadis Ibragimov. Then he won a grappling-heavy split decision over John Allan, before curiously choosing to move down to 185 lb for the first time in his career despite owning a perfect 8-0 pro record. It couldn’t have helped that he took his next fight on short notice, but he looked dreadful in his first match at 185 lb and he was lucky to just lose a decision to Trevin Giles, who has since moved down to 170 lb, as Giles was close to finishing Dolidze. He then hung on to Laureano Staropoli, who was moving up from 170 lb, for three rounds to notch his first win at 185 lb.
In his last fight, Dolidze dropped Daukaus 30 seconds in with a combination of punches. Still in the grasp of Dolidze, Daukaus was able to return to his feet, but Dolidze landed a well placed knee to the head of Daukaus that spilled him back to the mat and the fight was quickly stopped as Dolidze unloaded with ground and pound. The fight ended with Dolidze ahead 8-4 in significant strikes and 10-5 in total strikes.
Now 10-1 as a pro, Dolidze has five wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. His only career loss came in a 2021 decision in his first fight down at 185 lb, and he’s never been finished. After finishing the first seven opponents of his career, Dolidze has now gone the distance in three of his last four fights and five of his last seven matches have seen the second round.
Overall, Dolidze is a powerful striker with a grappling background who can finish fights both on the feet and the mat. He loves looking for heel hooks, but he hasn’t landed one since 2017 in his second pro fight. After looking bad in his first two fights at 185 lb, he appeared to regain some of his past explosiveness in his last match, although it ended so quickly that it’s hard to fully gauge where he’s at. He only averages 2.46 SSL/min and 1.45 SSA/min and has just a 37% takedown defense. All three of his opponents that have tried to take him down have been successful, and he’s been taken down five times on eight attempts. On the other side of things, he’s landed 9 takedowns of his own on 17 attempts (52.9% accuracy).
Fight Prediction:
Dolidze will have a 2” height advantage, but Hawes will have a 1” reach advantage. Hawes is two years younger than the 34-year-old Dolidze.
This is an interesting matchup as both guys have grappling/wrestling backgrounds and powerful striking. It will be interesting to see if either looks to test the other on the mat, or if they’re content with keeping it standing. Hawes has yet to be taken down in the UFC, while anytime there’s been a takedown attempt in one of Dolidze’s fights, we’ve seen the action end up on the ground at some point. Hawes is more focussed on control with his wrestling, while Dolidze is looking for heel hooks on the ground. So they have contrasting position versus submission styles. The only time Hawes has been submitted in his career was in a 2016 R2 guillotine and the last time Dolidze actually completed a submission was in 2017, back in his third pro fight. It’s more likely we see someone get knocked out here and Hawes has shown a dubious chin in the past, while Dolidze has never been finished. Hawes has a much higher output and we expect him to pull ahead early, the big question will be how he handles the power of Dolidze. Our guess is not well, and we’re taking Dolidze by R1 or R2 KO here.
Our favorite bet here is “Dolidze ITD” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Hawes has been a DFS scoring machine, averaging 114 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins, and is now coming off a career performance where he scored 135 points in a dominant second round TKO win. Even in his two decision wins, he still put up 95 and 96 DraftKings points as he relied heavily on his wrestling in both of those matches. He also scored 128 points in an 18 second R1 KO win over Jacob Malkoun in his 2020 UFC debut. While Dolidze has a grappling background, he has just a 37% takedown defense, so if Hawes wants to take this fight to the ground, he should be able to. With that said, he may opt to keep it standing as his striking has looked great lately. While Hawes’ last matchup couldn’t have been much more favorable as he faced a one-dimensional wrestler, this looks like a more challenging matchup as he faces a grappler who has never been finished and also has powerful striking. Hawes’ two weaknesses have been his chin and his cardio, so he’ll need to be careful not to get clipped or gas himself out, both of which are squarely in play. Coming off a slate-breaking performance, we expect Hawes to be incredibly popular, especially at his reasonable price tag, which lowers his tournament appeal some, but his high floor and massive ceiling always make him a solid play. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 18% chance it comes in round one.
Dolidze has also shown a solid floor and scoring ceiling, as he’s averaged 100 DraftKings points in his four UFC wins and still scored 86 and 92 points in his two decision wins. He’s also coming off a career best scoring performance, where he put up 115 DK points in a 73 second R1 KO win over Kyle Daukaus. That was the first time he’s finished an opponent since dropping down to 185 lb, and after looking less explosive in his first two fights at the new weight class, he looked better in that fight, at least in the short time it lasted. All five of his UFC fights have either ended in first round knockout wins or gone the distance, and he relies on his grappling to score well when he can’t land an early finish. With that in mind, Hawes has never been taken down in the UFC and is a former DI college wrestler, so this looks like a tougher matchup for Dolidze. In fairness, only one fighter has actually tried to take Hawes down, which was Kyle Daukaus (31% career takedown accuracy), who went 0 for 7 on his attempts against Hawes. Dolidze only averages 2.46 SSL/min, and if he’s unable to either land a finish or find grappling success, he’s both highly unlikely to win this fight and/or score well in a decision. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Dustin Jacoby
10th UFC Fight (6-2-1)Fresh off a first round walk off KO win, Jacoby hasn’t lost a fight since 2015, going 8-0-1 over that stretch. All nine of those fights have ended in either first round knockouts (3-0) or decisions (5-0-1). Two of his last three and four of his last six fights have gone the distance, but both of his last two knockouts came against seasoned veterans who had never been knocked out before. Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was cut in 2012 after an 0-2 start. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights outside of the UFC with three R1 KO wins, three decision victories, one decision loss, a R2 KO loss, and a R2 submission loss. He also stepped away from MMA entirely to try kickboxing for a four year period from 2015 to 2019, where he also went 6-3, including a win over UFC fighter Karl Roberson. Jacoby returned to MMA in 2019 and hasn’t lost a fight since.
In his last fight, Jacoby came in with a patient approach, mostly throwing leg kicks early on. However, midway through the first round Jacoby landed a walk off right hand that dropped Jung and ended the fight. While Jung did return to his feet fairly quickly, he was definitely out before he hit the ground and severely compromised. We have no problem with the stoppage. The fight ended with striking dead even at 14 apiece in an uneventful fight up until the finishing sequence.
Now 18-5-1 as a pro, Jacoby has 11 wins by KO, one by submission (2011), and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once (2014), submitted twice (2012 & 2015), and has two decision losses. Jacoby’s last 13 wins have all either ended in R1 KOs or decisions. The only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round in his career was a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. His other 17 wins have all ended in either decisions (6) or first round wins (11). He’s won or tied the last seven decisions he’s been to, with his last decision loss coming all the way back in 2012. In Jacoby’s initial stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however, he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required. He says he’s in a much better place now and is ready to make a run in the Light Heavyweight division.
Overall, Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who averages a healthy 5.27 SSL/min, while absorbing just 3.77/min. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight and doesn’t really add anything when it comes to grappling. It’s been seven and a half years since anyone finished him and he’s looked very durable at 205 lb.
Khalil Rountree Jr.
12th UFC Fight (6-5)Coming off a pair of second round TKO wins, Rountree has violently finished his last two opponents. However, he’s still just 3-3 in his last six fights and we’re accustomed to seeing a wide range of outcomes when he fights. Prior to that win, Rountree destroyed Modestas Bukauskas’ knee with a gruesome oblique kick that ended the fight. Leading up to the pair of wins, Rountree got knocked out by Ion Cutelaba in the first round and then lost a decision against a highly suspect Marcin Prachnio. Five of Rountree’s last seven fights have ended in knockouts (3-2), with none of those fights making it past the midway mark of round two.
In his last fight, we saw a slow paced first round with Rountree leading 18-17 in striking over the first five minutes. However, as soon as the second round started Rountree dropped Roberson with a heavy combination of punches and then beat him up with ground and pound, punctuated by a nasty body kick that you rarely see fighters throw at grounded opponents. Roberson quickly covered up in a ball on the mat as the fight was stopped. Roberson was notably moving up from 185 lb for that fight, and while he had never been knocked out before, he followed it up with another TKO loss since then. Rountree finished the fight ahead 26-17 in striking with a pair of back-to-back knockdowns before getting the finish 25 seconds into the second round.
Now 10-5 as a pro, Rountree has seven wins by knockout, including five in the first round and two in round two, and three decisions. He’s also been knocked out twice and submitted once, with all three of those early losses ending in round one. His other two losses both went the distance.
Overall, Rountree is a violent striker who’s shown a questionable chin at times, which is why so many of his fights have ended in the first round. While he’s fought exclusively at 205 in the UFC, he competed down at 185 lb some earlier in his career. He’s never landed a takedown and relies on his striking to win fights and six of his last seven wins have come by KO. He relies on power more than volume and only averages 3.34 SSL/min and 3.55 SSA/min.
Fight Prediction:
Jacoby will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 76” reach. Rountree is two years younger than the 34-year-old Jacoby.
This sets up as a high stakes striking battle between two dangerous fighters. Jacoby is the more technical of the two, while Rountree is looking to take your head off with every punch he throws. Jacoby has been the more durable and consistent of the two, so while Rountree is very dangerous, we like Jacoby’s chances here. There’s a chance Jacoby lands a first round knockout, but we think it’s a little more likely he wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Jacoby DEC” at +310.
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DFS Implications:
Jacoby consistently either finishes opponents in the first round or wins decisions and only one of his 12 career early wins came beyond the first round. He’s scored 106, 106 and 119 DraftKings points in his three R1 KO wins in the UFC and 80, 91, and 55 in his three decision victories. He’s a pure kickboxer who rarely lands any takedowns and he’s entirely reliant on striking, knockdowns and finishes to score well. While he does land a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.27 SSL/min in his career (2nd most on the slate), it’s still hard for him to return value as the favorite through striking alone and this looks like a bad matchup for him to land a ton of volume as Rountree only averages 3.55 SSA/min. That leaves Jacoby reliant on landing a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 61% chance to win, a 39% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Rountree has averaged 106 DraftKings points in his six UFC wins, with at least 95 points in each of those. He relies on damage to score well, as five of those wins ended in knockouts and the other was a decision with a ridiculous four knockdowns landed. This looks like a really tough matchup for Rountree to find a finish, as Jacoby has looked insanely durable at 205 lb and the only time he’s ever been knocked out was in 2014 in his second fight after moving up to 205 lb from 185 lb. That leaves us skeptical that Rountree can finish him, but the guy throws hammers and anything can happen in a fight. At his cheap price tag, if Rountree lands a finish he’ll almost certainly end up in winning lineups, so he clearly has upside. However, if he somehow wins a decision, he’s unlikely to score well, as he’s never landed a takedown and only averages 3.34 SSL/min. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Josh Fremd
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)This matchup had originally been scheduled back in July, but Fremd withdrew and Gore instead ended up getting knocked out by Fremd’s teammate, Cody Brundage. They now put the original matchup back together just three and a half months later.
Looking to bounce back from a smothering decision loss in his recent short notice UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez, Fremd got dominated on the mat for basically the entire fight. Two month’s prior to that loss, Fremd landed a second round submission win on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight to punch his ticket to the UFC. He’s won seven of his last nine fights, with six of those nine matches ending in the first two rounds. His only other loss over that stretch was a first round KO against Gregory Rodrigues, which is the only time Fremd has been finished in his career.
In Fremd’s last fight, Hernandez came in looking to grapple early and often as he landed four takedowns in the first round alone. He pushed a crazy grappling pace throughout the fight, landing eight takedowns in the fight on 11 attempts with 10:45 in control time and three official submission attempts. He also led in significant strikes 48-31 and in total strikes 91-43. Fremd did have some decent moments in round two, but overall struggled to maintain pace with Hernandez.
Now 9-3 as a pro, Fremd has four wins by KO, three submissions, and two decision victories. All seven of his early wins have come in the first two rounds, with three first round KOs, another in round two, and three second round submission wins. The only time he’s ever been finished came against UFC fighter Gregory Rodrigues in a first round knockout for the vacant LFA Middleweight belt in May 2021, with his other two losses going the distance.
Overall, Fremd is an aggressive fighter who likes to push forward and force the action. He trains with Dustin Jacoby, who he shares this cards with, at Factory X at elevation in Colorado. Fremd is a dangerous striker with good size for the division and he likes to throw violent flying knees. His aggressive fighting style has gotten him into trouble at times and he’s been prone to getting dropped, but it makes for exciting fights.
Tresean Gore
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Gore is just three and a half months removed from the first early loss of his career, in a R1 KO against Fremd’s teammate Cody Brundage. Prior to that, Gore lost his UFC debut against Bryan Battle in a low volume decision. That fight that had originally been scheduled as the The Ultimate Fighter finale before Gore injured his knee and was forced to sit on the sideline and watch Battle go on to win the show against a replacement. Not counting his exhibition fights on TUF, three of Gore’s last four fights have ended in the first round.
In Gore’s last fight, Brundage wasted no time looking to wrestle, as he shot for his first takedown 10 seconds into the first round. Gore did a decent job of momentarily fighting it off, but Brundage was still able to eventually land it. While Gore was able to return to his feet, Brundage held onto him for a while until the two finally returned to space 90 seconds in. Gore landed some good leg kicks, but wasn’t setting them up and Brundage finally timed one and dropped Gore with a big right hand. Gore tried to hang on as Brundage pounced on top of him on the mat, but was quickly rendered unconscious with ground and pound. The fight ended with Brundage ahead 15-8 in significant strikes and 23-8 in total strikes, while he landed one of his official two takedown attempts with 78 seconds of control time.
Still just 3-2 as a pro, Gore has one win by TKO, one by submission, and one decision (split). His lone TKO win resulted when he then had an opponent suffer a knee injury in the first round of his second pro fight, although it was unclear how the injury even happened so it seemed pretty flukey. He’s been knocked out once himself and also has one decision loss. Gore made his pro debut at 185 lb, but then fought his next two matches at 205 lb before dropping back down to 185 lb when he went on TUF, which is where it appears he’ll stay. The only two early wins of his career both came at 205 lb, and he said he had a really tough weight cut leading up to his recent KO loss.
Overall, Gore is a decent striker with heavy hands and kicks but is still really green. He also has some level of grappling ability as we’ve seen him look to end multiple fights with rear-naked chokes. He’s only been taken down twice on 10 opponent attempts so far (80% defense), while he’s landed two of his own three attempts (66.7% accuracy). He’s been reluctant to let his hands go and is only averaging 3.45 SSL/min in his first two UFC fights.
Fight Prediction:
Fremd will have a 4” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
Both of these guys are still in search of their first UFC win, so it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in either of them. With that said, it’s easier to forgive Fremd for losing his short notice UFC debut against a tough opponent, while Gore has now looked bad in two straight fights against less experienced competition with full camps to prepare for both. Fremd should now be fully prepared to face Gore, after he had already been scheduled to face him once and then his teammate, Cody Brundage, ended up fighting him instead. While Gore has shown himself to be a more patient striker, Fremd should be looking to push the pace more. Each of these two have only been finished once in their respective careers, so while they both have finishing upside, there’s no guarantee we see this end early, especially if Gore can dictate the pace and slow things down. We expect Fremd to be the busier fighter, so if this fight does go the distance, he’s the more likely of the two to get his hand raised. With that said, it will be interesting to see if Gore looks to wrestle here more, which wouldn’t be surprising following getting knocked out and how Fremd’s UFC debut went. Both guys have the potential to finish the other either on the feet or the mat, and they’ve each looked somewhat chinny at times, so this is an uncomfortable spot to make a prediction, but with Fremd’s higher output and size advantage, we like his chances to win with either an early knockout or by decision.
Our favorite bet here is Fremd’s ML at -155.
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DFS Implications:
Fremd is an offensively minded fighter with finishing upside, but is unlikely to return value in a decision as he’s primarily a striker. Working in his favor, Gore is coming off a R1 KO loss against Fremd’s teammate, Cody Brundage, but that’s also the only time Gore has been finished in his short career. Fremd has looked vulnerable to getting dropped at times in the past and Gore has heavy hands. Fremd also struggled to defend takedowns in his recent debut, and we could see Gore try to get this fight to the mat. Both of those leave Fremd with a shaky floor and he looks like a boom or bust play. The line has moved in Gore’s favor over the last week, leaving Fremd overpriced relative to the odds, which could actually help to keep his ownership lower, but also indicates he’s a risky play. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 17% chance it comes in round one.
Gore is a calculated striker who’s unlikely to put up huge striking totals, but has solid finishing ability and will also mix in grappling. He’s still very green, with just five pro fights under his belt and is trying to learn on the job following a run on The Ultimate Fighter. He attributes his recent KO loss to a rough weight cut and has fought at both 185 lb and 205 lb in the past, and he’ll be fighting at 185 lb again here. The recent losses do appear to have humbled him some, so it will be interesting to see how he looks here, as he desperately needs a win to avoid starting 0-3 in the UFC. Gore scored just 41 DraftKings points in a decision loss in his UFC debut, which isn’t overly encouraging for his scoring potential if he’s unable to land a finish, but we did see Fremd get dominated on the mat in his own recent debut, which would be one way Gore scores well in a decision. And at his cheap price tag, it’s certainly still possible for Gore to serve as a value play even if he doesn’t put up a huge score. The big question mark will be how his chin holds up just three and a half months after suffering his first KO loss, which definitely adds some uncertainty to the mix here. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off his third straight TKO win, Cortes-Acosta is fresh off a R1 TKO win on DWCS after he won the vacant LFA HeavyWeight belt just before that with a third round TKO. Cortes-Acosta is a former minor league baseball player, but was cut following a fight and embraced the result as he opted to become a professional fighter. While he turned pro in MMA in 2018, he was more focussed on boxing around that time, and went 4-3 in boxing matches from 2018 to 2021, before really focussing on his MMA career in the Summer of 2021. He’s now won six straight fights over the last 15 months.
In his last fight, both guys came out swinging, with little regard for defense. However, after neither guy went down in the opening two minutes, we saw Cortes-Acosta take a break in the clinch, before breaking free and landing a knockdown. He then finished the fight with ground and pound late in the first round. The fight ended with Cortes-Acosta ahead 43-15 in significant strikes and 47-18 in total strikes, with 103 seconds in control time.
Now 7-0 as a pro, Cortes-Acosta has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decisions. Despite five of his seven wins coming early, he had seen the second round in four straight fights leading up to his recent R1 TKO win on DWCS, which is the only first round knockout of his career. However, his lone submission win also occurred in the first round, which ended in a kimura in his second pro fight.
Overall, Cortes-Acosta is a one-dimensional striker whose background is in baseball, not martial arts. He then transitioned to boxing before really going all in on MMA over the last 15 months. While he has one submission win on his record, he really doesn’t offer anything in terms of grappling and has really struggled with getting taken down and controlled. He was losing his second most recent fight on the mat before his opponent gassed out and Cortes-Acosta finished him late in round three. Cortes-Acosta also has a really poor striking defense and simply looks to load up on punches and finish his opponents with punches before they can finish him. He’s yet to face any real competition and we don’t expect his undefeated record to stay intact very long at the UFC level.
Jared Vanderaa
7th UFC Fight (1-5)Fighting for his job here on the last fight of his contract, Vanderaa has lost four straight fights since notching his only UFC win in a 2021 decision over Justin Tafa. Since joining the UFC, Vanderaa has foolishly made a habit out of accepting fights on short notice against grapplers and he’s been finished by Sergey Spivak, Alexander Romanov, and Alexey Oleynik in three of his five UFC losses. He also has a close split-decision loss to Andrei Arlovski and was most recently finished by a terrible Chase Sherman in a R3 TKO.
In his last fight, Vanderaa insanely opted not to look for a single takedown, despite being a BJJ “black belt” and going against an opponent in Sherman who has proven he’s completely helpless off his back. Sherman took an early striking lead in the fight, outlanding Vanderaa 46-29 in round one. Vanderaa had a better second round and narrowed the striking gap, but Sherman’s cardio held up better than it had in previous fights and midway through the third round Sherman connected with a long combination of punches that had Vanderaa nearly out on the feet and forced to cover up along the cage as the fight was stopped. Sherman finished ahead 137-109 in striking, with no takedowns attempted in the fight and zero seconds of control time between them.
Now 12-9 as a pro, Vanderaa has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has three decision losses. While he’s technically a BJJ black belt and has landed three submissions in his career, those all came in his first seven pro fights and he hasn’t submitted anybody since 2017. While 16 of his 21 pro fights have ended early, 12 of his last 14 matches have seen the second round, with seven seeing round three, and five going the distance. Vanderaa has yet to finish anybody at the UFC level and his only first round win in his last 14 fights was on DWCS against Harry Hunsucker, who’s been knocked out in the first round in all six of his pro losses. That win over Hunsucker ended at the 3:34 mark in the first round, which is the second longest fight of Hunsucker’s 13 fight career, with the longest making it just another 22 seconds.
Overall, Vanderaa is a low-level Heavyweight who has struggled to find wins in the UFC, but has also been put in some very tough spots as he’s accepted fights on short notice and gone against several high-level grapplers. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he’s shown the ability to put up a big striking total when he’s not working off his back, as he landed 121 significant strikes against Justin Tafa in a decision win and 109 against Chase Sherman in a R3 TKO loss. While Vanderaa hasn’t attempted a takedown in his six UFC fights, he did take a terrible Harry Hunsucker down in the first round of his DWCS match and finished him on the mat. However, the fact that Vanderaa didn’t attempt a single takedown against Chase Sherman, who is insanely bad off his back, makes it tough to trust that Vanderaa will ever look to grapple. With that said, Vanderaa just switched gyms from Dan Henderson’s Athletic Fitness Center to Kings MMA, where there are several high level grapplers. Perhaps the new surroundings will convince him to try and wrestle some as he faces another one-dimensional striker in a must win spot.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’4” but Vanderaa will have a 2” reach advantage.
This is a low-level Heavyweight fight, which always comes with a high-level of uncertainty. While Vanderaa’s unwillingness to grapple so far in the UFC makes it impossible to trust him to try and get this fight to the ground against another one-dimensional striker, the change in gyms does at least provide a glimmer of hope as Vanderaa is now training with various high-level UFC grapplers. While he’s terrible off his back, Vanderaa is at least listed as being a BJJ black belt and was able to land a ground and pound finish on DWCS just before joining the UFC. We’ve seen Cortes-Acosta get controlled on the ground in recent fights, so it’s an obvious weakness for Vanderaa to attack should he choose to actually fight smart for the first time in the UFC. The stakes couldn’t be higher for him as he’s fighting for his job here in the final fight of his contract. Cortes-Acosta looks to be a more powerful striker than Vanderaa, but he’s also pretty wild with his punches and has a poor striking defense. Despite the fact that he’s coming off a R3 TKO loss, Vanderaa has been pretty durable for most of his career, with his only other two TKO defeats coming from ground and pound on the mat against high-level Heavyweight wrestlers in Sergey Spivak and Alexander Romanov. We’re willing to give Vanderaa a pass on those losses, but it’s harder to get past his recent loss to Chase Sherman, who was coming off four straight losses and has already been cut twice by the UFC in his career.
Ultimately, the trickiest thing about predicting the outcome in this match is trying to determine whether or not Vanderaa will look to get it to the ground. The switch in gyms gives us some reason for optimism, but the fact that he has yet to even attempt a takedown in six UFC fights, let alone land one, makes it hard to even remotely trust him to start now. Vanderaa also hasn’t come close to knocking anybody out on the feet in the UFC, further narrowing his chances of landing a finish. So if he doesn’t look to grapple, he’ll need to outland his way to a decision win, while trying not to get knocked out. He showed in the Justin Tafa fight that he’s capable of executing such a game plan, but Tafa also doesn’t have a ton of power. Cortes-Acosta looks to swing for the fences with every right hand he throws, which will test Vanderaa’s durability over the course of three rounds, and make it tougher for Vanderaa to simply point his way to victory. If you told us Vanderaa definitely wasn’t going to grapple, we would pick Cortes-Acosta. And if you told us Vanderaa definitely was going to grapple, we would pick him to win the fight. While we don’t know what his approach will be, based on the fact that he’s never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, we’re inclined to side with Cortes-Acosta here by late round knockout, and expect him to be landing the more impactful shots on the feet. Just keep in mind, neither one of these two are good, and they’re both fully capable of laying an egg here.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 1.5 Rounds” at -126.
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DFS Implications:
Cortes-Acosta is a low-level Heavyweight one-dimensional striker with limited pro experience and no grappling skills, who’s making his debut following a first round TKO win on DWCS, and checks in as the fourth most expensive option on the slate. If that doesn’t get you excited to play him we don’t know what will. The one thing Cortes-Acosta has going for him is that he’s facing another low-level Heavyweight in Jared Vanderaa, who’s lost four straight fights and was just knocked out by a terrible Chase Sherman. Vanderaa has also yet to even attempt a takedown in the UFC, so while he’s officially listed as a BJJ black belt, he’s less likely to expose Cortes-Acosta’s non-existent ground game. Vanderaa’s recent TKO loss is the first time he’s been finished on the feet in his career, which isn’t overly encouraging for Cortes-Acosta’s chances of landing a knockout, but still shows it’s possible. Vanderaa also absorbs a ton of strikes, averaging 5.84 SSA/min (3rd most on the slate), and Sherman scored 110 DraftKings points and 144 points on FanDuel in his recent third round TKO victory over Vanderaa. So depending on how Cortes-Acosta’s cardio holds up, he could still score decently even without an early knockout. In the end, this is a low-level Heavyweight fight, which typically means you want to have exposure to both sides as the outcome will be hard to predict. The odds imply Cortes-Acosta has a 64% chance to win, a 47% chance to land a finish, and a 24% chance it comes in round one.
Vanderaa will be fighting out his contract here in a must win spot following four straight losses. He just switched/upgraded gyms, which adds some uncertainty to an already uncertain matchup as Vanderaa will take on a UFC newcomer in Cortes-Acosta, who has yet to impress us and looks vulnerable on the mat. Cortes-Acosta is all offense and also tends to get hit a lot, which does create the potential for Vanderaa to score well with a win of any kind—as long as he can avoid getting knocked out. At his cheap price tag, there’s a good chance a decision win would still be enough for Vanderaa to serve as a value play, although at that point it would come down to what the other cheap dogs around him do. While 10 of Vanderaa’s 12 career wins have come early, his only UFC victory ended in a decision where he scored just 83 DraftKings points even in a high-volume brawl. Considering Vanderaa has yet to even attempt a takedown in six UFC fights, we certainly can’t trust him to look to grapple here, but this is the perfect spot for him to come in with a grappling heavy-gameplan, although the same could have been said about his last matchup. The switch in camps gives us a sliver of optimism that he’ll finally look to wrestle, so at least the potential for a dominating ground performance is there should he choose to go that route. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Max Griffin
14th UFC Fight (6-7)Looking to bounce back from yet another split decision loss, Griffin has gone the difference in 9 of his last 11 fights and somehow four of his last six decisions have been split, with him losing three of those. He also had four split decisions prior to joining the UFC (2-2 ), including a 2015 split decision loss to Chidi Njokuani. Of the 15 decisions he’s been to in his career, eight have been split (3-5). Prior to his recent loss, Griffin had won three straight, with two of those ending in KO/TKOs, after previously never winning consecutive fights in his first nine UFC appearances. One of his recent TKO wins came when he infamously punched the ear off Ramiz Brahimaj’s head.
In his last fight, Griffin dropped Magny midway through round one and won the round on all three judges’ scorecards as he also nearly doubled Magny up in striking in the round. Magny did much better in round two, in what was a close round, but Griffin once again finished ahead in striking, while also stuffing all four of Magny’s takedown attempts. However, Magny took over in round three as Griffin’s gas tank waivered, and Magny was able to land his only takedown in the fight and control Griffin for four minutes in the round. Magny won that round on all the scorecards, leaving the decision hinging on the close second round. Two of the three judges gave that round to Magny, handing him the split-decision win. Griffin finished ahead in significant strikes 67-54, while Magny led in total strikes 104-75. Magny was only able to land 1 of his 9 takedown attempts but did finish with four and a half minutes of control time, while Griffin failed to land either of his own takedown attempts. Following the fight, the UFC told Griffin they thought he won the fight and actually even paid him his win bonus, showing just how strongly they felt.
Now 18-9 as a pro, Griffin has nine wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. His two submission wins came in the first two rounds back in 2013 and 2014, while six of his knockouts came in round one, with the other three spread evenly across rounds two through four. He’s only been finished once in his career, which came in a third round KO against Colby Covington in his UFC debut, while his other eight losses all ended in decisions. Nine of Griffin’s 13 UFC fights have gone the distance (3-6), while four have ended in knockouts (3-1). After his first two UFC fights ended in TKO, he fought to seven straight decisions (2-5).
Overall, Griffin is a longtime veteran who relies mostly on his striking, but will mix in takedowns and has landed at least one in six of his last eight fights. He’s most threatening for knockouts in the first round of fights, and tends to slow down later in matchers, especially when he’s forced to wrestle or at least defend takedowns. With that said, he has a solid 75% takedown defense and no one has gotten him down more than once in his last 12 fights.
Tim Means
26th UFC Fight (14-10, NC)Also coming off a loss that snapped a three-fight winning streak, Means got submitted in the second round by Kevin Holland. Prior to the recent early loss, Means had won three straight decisions over Nicolas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli. He notably accrued over 14 minutes of combined control time in those three fights while landing three takedowns on 11 attempts. Perry and Staropoli both notably missed weight for those fights and are no longer in the UFC. Means’ last three losses all ended in the first two rounds, with his last two ending in submissions. Five of the thirteen decisions he’s been to in his career have been split (2-2-1), with him coming up on the wrong side of his last two split decisions.
In his last fight, Mean was able to take Holland down twice on five attempts, but was unable to control him for long on the mat, as Means finished with just 90 seconds of control time. Holland hurt Means early in the second round with a perfectly placed punch and then immediately locked up a submission to put him away. Holland finished ahead in significant strikes 36-21 and in total strikes 53-25, while failing to land his only takedown attempt.
Now 32-13-1 as a pro, Means has 19 wins by KO, five by submission, and eight decisions. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted six times, and has five decision losses. Means’ last three submission losses all ended in round two, after the first three of his career all came in round one. The only person to knock Means out since 2004 was Niko Price, who did so in the first round of a 2019 match. Means is now 38 years old and hasn’t finished anybody since landing a 2019 R1 guillotine against Thiago Alves. That 2019 finish is his only submission win since 2015 and only his second since 2011.
Overall, Means is a longtime UFC veteran who’s shown he can win fights in a variety of ways. He averages 5.01 SSL/min and 1.0 TDL/15 min, with 24 of his 32 pro wins ending early (75%). He’s more of a grinder than a guy that will blow you away in any one area, but he’s well rounded and pretty solid everywhere. He’s landed 9 takedowns on 25 attempts (36%) in his last eight fights, but hasn’t landed more than two in any of those fights. At 38 years old and coming off an early loss, Means did look to be slowing down in his last fight and we could be seeing his chin on its way out as he got hurt badly on the feet in that fight before shooting for a failed desperation takedown, where he then got his neck wrapped up and quickly tapped.
Fight Prediction:
Means will have a 3” height advantage, but Griffin will have a 1” reach advantage and is two years younger than the 38-year-old Means.
Griffin has looked good recently, showing solid power and a good takedown defense. His only issue has been he slows down at times later in fights, which results in him habitually being involved in close/split decisions. He’s landed a knockdown in three straight fights, with all three of those knockdowns occurring in the first round and that appears to be when he’s the most dangerous. Means has been prone to getting submitted throughout his career, but has only been knocked out once in his last 43 fights. While we typically see Griffin either land an early knockout or more often fight to close decisions, he does have two submission wins on his record, although those occurred in 2013 and 2014, prior to him joining the UFC. While we don’t really expect Griffin to be actively pursuing a submission, a club and sub like we saw in Means’ loss to Holland is very possible. We’re also not getting too hung up over Means’ past durability, as he’s now 38 years old and his chin looked compromised in his last match. So there’s a good chance Griffin can knock him out in the first two rounds. Means does have the ability to grind Griffin up against the cage and make this fight ugly, which would increase the chances that it ends in a close decision, but we like Griffin’s chances to find a finish in the first two rounds with either a clean knockout or a club and sub.
Our favorite bet here is “Griffin ITD” at +215.
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DFS Implications:
Griffin has been a R1 KO or bust DFS play throughout his career, with DraftKings scores of 108 and 121 in his two first round knockouts, but averaging just 73 points in his other four wins. In fairness to him, he put on a dominating performance against Thiago Alves in 2019 and got robbed of a decision, but still scored 77 DK points in the fight. So had the decision gone his way, as it absolutely should have, he would have still scored 107 points. His other three decision wins have been good for 85, 93, and 73 points and he also has a third round TKO win that scored just 77 points. At his high price tag, none of those scores would be useful, and Griffin likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to return value here. Working in his favor, Means has been finished in the first two rounds in his last three losses, but overall has been far more prone to getting submitted than knocked out. Griffin hasn’t submitted anybody since 2014, and is primarily just a knockout threat, but if he was ever going to land a submission in the UFC, this would be the time. Coming off his third split-decision loss in his last eight fights could give Griffin a little extra motivation to push for a finish opposed to leaving this one up to the judges and we like his chances of finding a finish. The odds imply Griffin has a 62% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Means generally scores pretty well in DFS when he wins through a combination of striking, grappling, control time, and finishes, although he totaled just 79 DraftKings in his last decision win. However, his two previous decisions were good for 90 and 103 points, and his two wins before that both came early and scored 110 and 111 DK points. Working against him, Griffin is very durable and has only been finished once in his career, which came in the third round of his 2016 UFC debut against Colby Covington. Griffin also has a solid 75% takedown defense and none of his last 12 opponents have gotten him down more than once. He also only averages 3.94 SSA/min and is overall a tough guy to score well against. Backing that up, Magny scored just 75 DraftKings points and 58 points on FanDuel in his recent split-decision win over Griffin. Now 38 years old, Means looked bad in his last fight and may have finally gone off the cliff in his lengthy career after turning pro all the way back in 2004. He likely needs a finish here to actually score well, although there’s always a chance he could still end up in tournament winning lineups as a value play in a decision victory if we once again only see a few underdogs win. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Arnold Allen
10th UFC Fight (9-0)Stepping into his first UFC main event, Allen has won 11 straight matches and is coming off his first knockout win with the organization. He hasn’t lost a fight since a 2014 decision with Cage Warriors. Prior to his recent knockout win over Dan Hooker, Allen won a decision over a tough Sodiq Yusuff, which is the only loss of Yusuff’s UFC career and snapped a six fight winning streak for Yusuff.
In his last fight, Allen patiently controlled the distance for the first minute before unloading on Dan Hooker with a lengthy combination of punches a minute in. While Hooker was narrowly able to survive the barrage of strikes, after taking a short break to prevent gassing out, Allen went back to work and forced a stoppage on the feet as he landed a series of punches, kicks and elbows against a defenseless Hooker along the cage. Allen finished ahead in significant strikes 49-14 and in total strikes 50-14, with neither guy attempting a takedown in the match. While the finish was very impressive, keep in mind Hooker was moving down a weight class for that fight and it also took place in Allen’s home country of England.
Now 18-1 as a pro, Allen has six knockouts, four submissions, and eight decision wins. However, six of those early wins came in his first seven pro fights. The only loss of his career was a 2014 decision and he’s never been finished. His first eight UFC fights all saw the third round, with six going the distance, and prior to his recent first round finish he had seen the second round in 11 straight fights and hadn’t finished anybody since landing a 2018 third round guillotine finish, which is also the same way he won his 2015 UFC debut.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Allen’s career, so we’ve never seen how his cardio looks in the championship rounds, nor does he truly know how his body will hold up in those rounds when the lights are on, regardless of how much he’s trained for it.
Overall, Allen is a crisp striker, with fast hand speed and good footwork. While he’s coming off a first round knockout, he’s generally not bonus hunting or looking for highlight reel finishes and has said in the past that he’s purely focused on winning fights. He’ll mix in occasional takedowns, but he’s only landed three in his last six fights, so they’ve been somewhat sporadic and he only averages 1.4 TDL/15 min despite having a 50% takedown accuracy. He’s also shown a solid 76% takedown defense and his last five opponents have combined to go 0 for 15 on their attempts against him. He also owns a solid 66% striking defense, and none of his nine UFC opponents have landed more than 49 significant strikes on him, with seven landing 35 or less. He’s also never been knocked down in the UFC and is overall very defensively sound.
Calvin Kattar
12th UFC Fight (7-4)Looking to bounce back from a close/questionable five-round split-decision loss to Josh Emmett, Kattar has alternated wins and losses for his last four fights, all of which ended in five-round decisions. Prior to his recent loss, Kattar had a convincing win over Giga Chikadze, after getting styled on by Max Holloway for 25 minutes in a record setting striking performance where Holloway set the record for the most significant strikes ever landed in a fight at 445, blowing past the previous record of 290, (also set by Holloway) by more than 50%. Holloway amazingly landed more significant strikes in the fourth round alone (141) than Kattar landed in the entire fight (133). That came just after Kattar won a decision over Dan Ige. The only other UFC fighters to defeat Kattar have been Zabit Magomedsharipov and Renato Carneiro, with both of those earlier losses ending in three-round decisions. While four of Kattar’s first five UFC wins ended in knockouts, he’s only knocked out one of his last six opponents, which was an aging Jeremy Stephens in 2020.
In his last fight, we saw a slow start with Kattar finishing round one ahead in significant strikes just 14-11 with Emmett failing to land the only takedown attempt in the round. Kattar’s respect for Emmett’s power was evident, as he looked to control the distance and snipe him from the outside opposed to hanging out in the pocket, however Emmett was still able to land a few good shots, which ended up being enough for all three judges to score the first round for him. Both guys did a better job of landing strikes in rounds two and three, but Emmett took a striking lead, despite wearing more of the damage. Kattar finished the fight strong as he took over in rounds four and five, severely outlanding Emmett in the championship rounds. The fight ended with Kattar ahead in significant strikes 130-107 and in total strikes 131-107, while Emmett failed to land any of his four takedown attempts and Kattar never attempted a takedown. All three judges agreed that Emmett won rounds one and three and that Kattar won round five. However, despite two of the three judges scoring round two for Kattar and a different two scoring round four for him, Emmett still finished ahead overall on two of the three judges’ scorecards and he went on to win a split decision. Had Chris Lee or Sal D’Amato given Kattar one more round, he would have won the fight, so it’s interesting to see that Chris Lee scored round four for Emmett, despite Kattar leading 41-21 in striking in the round. Regardless, it was largely a close fight, with neither guy really setting themself apart from the other.
Now 23-6 as a pro, Kattar has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and 10 decisions. He’s never been knocked out in his career and the only time he’s ever been finished was a 2008 first round submission in his fourth pro fight. His other five losses all went the distance and he’s won 15 of his last 19 fights. Fifteen of his last 17 fights have made it past the first round, with 14 seeing a third round and 13 going the distance.
This will be the 6th five round fight of Kattar’s career (3-2) and 5th in the UFC (2-2). His last four fights have all ended five-round decisions, while he also won a five-round decision back in 2009, eight years prior to joining the UFC.
Overall, Kattar is primarily a striker with strong boxing skills, but did wrestle in high school. He does a great job of mixing in elbows with his striking, which are some of his most damaging attacks. Kattar has an elite 91.3% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 23 attempts by his opponents, with no one getting him down more than once in a fight. The last person to get him down was Zabit Magomedsharipov in 2019, and even in that fight Kattar was only controlled for 52 seconds over the course of three rounds. On the other side of things, Kattar has landed 5 of his 17 takedown attempts (29.4% accuracy) over the course of his 11 UFC fights. He’s never landed more than two takedowns in a fight and has only landed a total of three takedowns in his last 10 matches. The only time he’s even attempted more than two takedowns in any of those 10 fights was when he took one-dimensional kickboxer Giga Chikadze down twice on seven attempts in a five-round decision win.
Fight Prediction:
Kattar will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also six years older than the 28-year-old Allen.
This is an interesting matchup between two technical strikers and we expect to see it play out almost entirely on the feet. While Allen does like to mix in grappling from time to time, Kattar has been exceptional at avoiding getting taken down and controlled. Both guys have been extremely durable with one early loss between them in 48 combined pro fights. Kattar has fought to four straight five-round decisions, while Allen has gone the distance in four of his last fights, and it would be surprising to see this fight end early. Allen is lighter on his feet and should have the speed advantage, but Kattar is taller, longer, and looks to be the more powerful of the two. Kattar is also the more technical boxer, so if he can control the distance and keep Allen in front of him he should be in a good position to win the fight. The only problem with that is Allen is constantly bouncing around, moving in and out of space, and mixing in kicks with his punches, while also threatening takedowns. That makes him a tough guy to nail down and if Allen shows he can keep that pace for five rounds, he’ll be a real problem. However, he’s yet to show that, and it’s hard to know how his cardio will hold up in the championship rounds considering he’s never been there. We expect this to end in a close decision that could go either way and the outcome could hinge on Allen’s late round cardio. With that said, Allen’s speed is the difference maker for us and we’re taking Allen by decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Over 4.5 Rounds” at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Allen is coming off the first useful DFS score of his nine-fight UFC career, where he scored 110 DraftKings points and 129 points on FanDuel in a high-volume first round TKO win over an emaciated Dan Hooker. That’s Allen’s only knockout in his last 12 fights dating back to a 2014 R1 TKO win with Cage Warriors. In his previous eight UFC fights, Allen averaged 68 DraftKings points and 67 points on FanDuel, failing to top 82 DK points or 87 points on FD in any of those. He failed to even score 70 DK points or 73 FD points in five of those fights and even in a pair of third round submission wins earlier in his UFC career he still returned DK/FD scores of just 59/72 and 65/75. Even if we extend his numbers from those first eight UFC fights (excluding his recent R1 TKO) over the course of five rounds, he would still be averaging just 93 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel, with half of those failing to top 90 points on either site. While Kattar leads the slate with 7.15 SSA/min, that number is skewed by an outlier performance against Max Holloway, who set a UFC record when he landed 445 significant strikes (17.8 SSL/min) against Kattar in a 2021 five-round decision. In Kattar’s other 10 UFC fights, he’s averaged 5.33 SSA/min and no one else has ever landed more than 128 significant strikes against him.
In Kattar’s recent five-round split-decision loss, Josh Emmett only scored 73 DraftKings points and 84 points on FanDuel in the victory and Emmett notably averages almost a full point higher than Allen in career striking numbers (4.28 vs. 3.31 SSL/min). None of that bodes well for Allen’s scoring potential in this upcoming matchup and further limiting his upside, not only has Kattar never been knocked out, he’s never even been knocked down in the UFC. He also has an elite 91% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 23 opponent attempts and zero times in his last five matches. That further limits Allen’s scoring, as in the past he’s been able to sprinkle in knockdowns and takedowns, which will both be tougher to come by here. In the end, we have a low scoring fighter stepping into the first five-round fight of his career, coming off the highest scoring performance of his career against a high-profile, but physically compromised opponent. That last detail may go overlooked by a good portion of the field, but is key when understanding the context of the finish. On a small card like this, it’s always a challenge to create unique or at least low duped lineups, but fading the main event favorite can certainly help with that. Without question, Allen has the striking ability to put up a big enough total to still score well in a decision under the right circumstances, but there are also several ways he fails. Based on his past numbers, we’d say it’s roughly a coin flip as to whether or not he returns value in a win, although at his cheap price he doesn’t need to put up a huge score to crack winning tournament lineups, making it tougher to comfortably fade him. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Kattar has averaged 98 DraftKings points in his seven UFC wins, with 101 or more in four of his last five victories. While that all looks promising, he only scored 52 DK points in his recent five-round split-decision loss, which still would have only been good for 82 points had the decision gone his way. He similarly scored 54 points in his five-round decision loss to Holloway in his third most recent fight. He also totaled just 79 points in a five-round decision win over Dan Ige just before that, so in three of his recent four five-round decisions he would have scored 79-84 points had they all gone his way. He did put up 122 points against Giga Chikadze in his other recent five-round decision, but that required him to fill up the statsheet against the one-dimensional kickboxer, which will be a tougher ask in this next matchup. Allen only averages 2.22 SSA/min and has a solid 76% takedown defense. No one has taken him down in his last five fights on 15 attempts, and Kattar will likely be entirely reliant on his boxing to win and score well in this fight. No one has ever landed more than 49 significant strikes on Allen, although keep in mind this will be the first five-round fight of his career. That brings into question what Allen’s cardio will look like in the later rounds, as this will be his first fight to potentially go past the 15 minute mark. While we’re not overly concerned in him, that does add some uncertainty to the mix and slightly raises Kattar’s ceiling if Allen slows down later in the fight. Kattar’s cheap price tag also makes it tougher for him to get left out of winning lineups in a victory, especially on a smaller slate with fewer alternative underdog options to outscore him. Katter should have a decent floor, as it would be surprising to see him get finished, but we don’t love his ceiling in this matchup and he’ll likely be looking to win a close decision and serve as a value play. His striking-heavy fighting style is better suited to the FanDuel scoring system compared to DraftKings, making it even tougher for him to get left out of winning lineups over there if he pulls off the upset. The odds imply he has a 48% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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