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Fight Day Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Elise Reed
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off her first UFC win in a split decision, Reed is actually somehow still undefeated at 115 lb in her career. The only loss of her brief career came in her short notice UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks up at 125 lb. Making matters even tougher for her, Eubanks was coming down from 135 lb for that fight. Eubanks immediately used her size and grappling advantage to take the fight to the mat in the opening 15 seconds and easily worked her way towards a first round finish.
In her last fight, Reed traveled into enemy territory as she took on McKenna in front of McKenna’s home London crowd. Reed did a decent job of not spending too much time on her back against the wrestler in McKenna, who finished with just 3:46 of control time with three takedowns landed on seven attempts. Reed finished ahead in significant strikes 76-60 and in total strikes 121-99.
Now 5-1 as a pro, Reed has two wins by TKO and three by decision. Her only loss came in a R1 TKO in her UFC debut up a weight class. Reed actually made her 2019 pro debut at Atomweight (105 lb), before moving up to 115 lb in 2020.
With a Taekwondo background, Reed is a pure striker who relies more on volume than power. She has good movement and quickness, but doesn’t add anything in the grappling department. To her credit, she’s at least active off her back, as she’s constantly throwing strikes and trying to reverse the position, however, she’s not a threat to land submissions.
Sam Hughes
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Also coming off her first UFC win in a split/majority decision, we definitely weren’t expecting Hughes to see a fifth UFC fight after losing her first three, but her upset win against Istela Nunes in her last match was apparently enough for the UFC to keep her around. She’s now fought to three straight decisions after six of her first seven pro fights ended early. Hughes turned pro in February 2019, initially fighting at 130 lb, but worked her way down to 115 lb by July 2020.
In her last fight, things looked bad early on for Hughes as she got outlanded 40-15 in striking in round one. However, the tide began to shift in round two where the striking was closer, with Nunes ahead in significant strikes 37-31, but Hughes ahead in total strikes 60-37. After not attempting any takedowns in round one, Hughes shot for four attempts in round two, landing one of them. After Nunes was already starting to slow down in round two, a late takedown is likely what won Hughes the second round. She then dominated round three as Nunes didn’t have a ton left in the tank. Hughes outlanded Nunes 30-12 in significant strikes in round three and 76-13 in total strikes, while also landing her only takedown attempt with nearly three minutes of control time. Nunes was also deducted a point for an eye poke in the round. The fight ended with Nunes ahead 89-76 in significant strikes, while Hughes led 151-90 in total strikes and landed 2 of her 5 takedown attempts with three and a half minutes of control time.
Now 6-4 as a pro, Hughes has one win by KO, three by submission, and two decisions. Her only KO/TKO loss came in her short notice UFC debut/execution against Tecia Torres, where the fight was stopped after round one when Hughes said she couldn’t see. The only other time Hughes has been finished was in a fourth round submission in an LFA title fight against Vanessa Demopoulos. Hughes also has two decision losses. Three of her four early wins came against opponents who had never fought professionally before and she hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level.
Overall, Hughes looked better in her last fight after really struggling in her first three UFC appearances. She’s still got a ways to go in terms of refining her game, but she was at least finally able to mix in some grappling. She’s been outlanded in significant strikes in all four of her UFC fights, and looks reliant on mixing in a combination of striking grappling to win fights as she’s an unlikely candidate to outland her way to victory against most opponents.
Fight Prediction:
Hughes will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.
This is the quintessential low level women’s MMA fight between two fighters who were seemingly brought into the UFC simply to fill slots. We’re still not 100% convinced that they're not actually the same person, but we’ll find out Saturday. They’re both 29 and turned pro in 2019, both suffered their first career TKO loss in the first round of their short notice UFC debuts against UFC veterans, and are both coming off split-decision wins in their first UFC victories. Where the similarities end are that Reed has no desire to go to the mat and Hughes has shown a newfound dedication to her grappling. And that’s likely where the outcome of this fight will be determined. Reed should be able to comfortably outland her way to victory if this fight remains on the feet for its entirety, but if Hughes can mix in some grappling, she should be able to steal some rounds like she did in her last match. Based on Hughes’ grappling advantage, we like her to pull off the upset and win this fight, but we don’t see her winning a pure striking battle.
Our favorite bet here is “Hughes Decision” at +230.
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DFS Implications:
Reed is a one dimensional striker with a Taekwondo background who doesn’t have a ton of power and offers nothing in terms of grappling. That makes it tough for her to return value at her higher price tag and she’ll either need to land a knockout or an absolutely insane amount of striking volume to end up in tournament winning lineups. Supporting that idea, she scored just 70 points in her recent split-decision win over Cory McKenna. Working in her favor, she faces another low-level fighter in Sam Hughes, so if Reed was ever going to hit a ceiling performance, this would likely be the time. However, her matchup and low ownership are really all she has going for her. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Hughes was able to salvage her UFC career with a split-decision win over a much more dangerous striker in Istela Nunes in her last fight and scored somewhat decently with a combination of striking and grappling as she put up 92 DraftKings points. That fight couldn’t have started much worse for Hughes, but she fought through some early adversity and landed a couple of late takedowns against a fading Nunes to secure the win. Hughes had failed to land any takedowns on three attempts in her previous three UFC fights, so it’s still hard to rely on her grappling, but she claims to have been working on it and the results support that. While Hughes doesn’t appear to be much of a finishing threat, at her cheaper price tag she could serve as a value play with a similar decision win here, and she’ll be going up against another one-dimensional striker who struggles off her back. The odds imply Hughes has a 41% chance to win, a 13% chance to get a finish and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Felipe Colares
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Continuing to trade wins and losses in six straight decisions, Colares is coming off a split-decision loss to Chris Gutierrez. Two of Colares’ five UFC fights have ended in split decisions (1-1) and most of his fights have been close—outside of the time he got mauled by Montel Jackson.
In his last fight, we saw a slower paced affair with Gutierrez finishing ahead in significant strikes 96-41 and in total strikes 115-70. Gutierrez failed to land any of his three takedown attempts, while Colares landed just one of his seven attempts, but did finish with four minutes of control time. Gutierrez started slow in the fight, landing just 19 total strikes in round one, but bounced back to land 41 in round two and 55 in round three. Gutierrez continued to land leg kicks as he always does, finishing the fight with 25, but he wasn’t able to do as much damage with them as we’ve seen in the past and Colares did his best to remain light on his lead leg. Overall, it wasn’t a very eventful fight, with both guys throwing a lot of kicks and fighting from the outside, while struggling to land takedowns when things got closer.
Now 10-3 as a pro, Colares has two wins by KO, five by submission, and three decisions. He’s never been finished and all three of his losses have come by decision since joining the UFC. His last seven fights have made it to the third round, with his last six going the distance. The last time Colares landed a finish was in a 2016 third round submission. Colares has bounced between 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career and this will be his third UFC fight at 145 lb (1-1). His last three fights before joining the UFC also all occurred at 145 lb, so this weight class is not completely foreign to him as he once again prepares to move back up to 145 lb after competing down at 135 lb in his last fight.
Overall, Colares is a durable grappler and BJJ black belt. While he’s constantly looking to get fights to the ground, he’s gone just 9 for 41 on his takedown attempts so far in the UFC. His best attribute has been his durability and he hasn’t looked especially dangerous offensively. Now he’ll face a somewhat similar opponent in many aspects.
Chase Hooper
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Also continuing to alternate wins and losses throughout his UFC career, Hooper is almost a year removed from a decision loss to Steven Peterson. Both of Hooper’s UFC wins have come early, while both of his losses have ended in decisions. His striking still needs a ton of work, and he remains reliant on landing submissions to win fights.
In his last fight, Hooper lost a grappling-heavy decision to Peterson in June 2021. Peterson was able to defend all of Hooper’s submission attempts while controlling him on the mat for extended periods of time. He finished ahead in control time 7:57-2:55, despite only landing one takedown on his only attempt. Meanwhile, Hooper finished 3 for 8 on his takedown attempts. Peterson finished ahead in significant strikes 49-31 and in total strikes 102-98. Hooper finished with two official submission attempts and has now notched at least two official attempts in four of his last five fights. However, he’s only landed one actual submission over that stretch, which came in a third round heel hook against Peter Barrett in his second most recent fight.
Now 10-2-1 as a pro, Hooper has three wins by TKO, five by submission, and two decisions. He’s never been finished and both of his losses have ended in decisions over his last three fights. After starting his career at 155 lb, Hooper dropped down to 145 lb in his fourth pro fight after finishing his first three opponents early. Both of Hooper’s UFC wins came against struggling opponents, with one combined UFC win between them, and neither guy ever fought again in the UFC following their losses to Hooper.
Overall, Hooper is a BJJ black belt and one-dimensional grappler who has yet to round out his skill set. Still just 22 years old as he prepares to make his fifth trip inside the UFC Octagon, it feels like Hooper was brought into the UFC too young, before he could really develop both physically and from a striking perspective. He’s been training with Wonderboy to try and round out his game and recently said he’s trying to incorporate more ground and pound on the mat, while also trying to improve his mental game. It’s been almost a year since he last fought, so he has had time to make improvements to his striking, but we’ll believe it when we see it. He came into his last fight with just a 7% takedown accuracy, but was able to land three takedowns on eight attempts, so he has shown some progress in that aspect of his game at least.
Fight Prediction:
Hooper will have a 5” height and reach advantage.
Both of these two are lanky BJJ black belts who struggle to get fights to the mat, but Colares will have the clear striking advantage. Neither guy has ever been finished, but Hooper’s last four wins have all come early, while Colares hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. Hooper will have a noticeable size advantage as Colares moves back up to 145 lb, but it’s unclear if Hooper will actually be able to utilize that with much effectiveness. We keep waiting on Hooper to make improvements to his striking, but we’ve yet to see it. He’s at such a young age that it could theoretically still happen, but we’re getting tired of waiting on it. While Hooper has proven he’s capable of landing submissions, it’s more likely we see Colares rely on his striking advantage to win a decision here and that’s what we’re expecting to see.
Our favorite bet here is “Colares Decision” at +165.
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DFS Implications:
Colares has yet to put up a useful score in five UFC fights, with DraftKings totals of just 82 and 75 in his two UFC decision wins. While he’s a BJJ black belt, he’s struggled to get opponents to the mat and owns just a 21% takedown accuracy. While he has five submissions on his record, his last six fights have all gone the distance and all of his finishes came against far less experienced opponents prior to joining the UFC. Colares’ grappling-heavy style lends itself more towards the DraftKings scoring system, and while there’s always a chance that this fight plays out entirely on the mat and Colares spends enough time in top position to score decently on DraftKings, he still likely needs a finish to be useful. And with that in mind, it doesn’t look like a favorable matchup for him to land a submission as he takes on another BJJ black belt grappler who also has never been finished. The odds imply Colares has a 63% chance to win, a 27% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Hooper continues to disappoint in DFS, as he’s now failed to top 74 DraftKings points in three straight fights and has glaring holes in his striking game. Even with a third round submission win in his second most recent fight, he still scored just 74 points and he’s now lost two of his last three fights. This looks like a tougher spot for him to get an early win as he faces a BJJ black belt who’s never been finished. At just 22 years old still, Hooper is at an age where he theoretically should be making major improvements between every fight and it’s been a year since we last saw him, but it feels like we say that every time he fights and we’re running out of patience waiting on him to improve his striking. With that said, at his cheaper price tag, there are more ways for him to end up in winning lineups if he can pull off the upset, but we don’t have a ton of confidence in him at this point. Working in his favor, Colares has just a 43% takedown defense and has been taken down 21 times so far in the UFC. So this does at least setup as an opportunity for Hooper to land more takedowns than we’ve seen out of him in the past. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 20% chance to get a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #9
Jonathan Martinez
10th UFC Fight (6-3)Moving back down to 135 lb, Martinez continues to bounce between 145 lb and 135 lb. He’s coming off a pair of decision wins, and his last three victories have all gone the distance. He’s won four of his last five fights, with the one loss coming in a 2021 second round KO against Davey Grant, which is the only time Martinez has been finished in his career.
In his last fight, we saw a lower volume decision win against Alejandro Perez, who was fighting up at 145 lb for the first time. The two fighters traded kicks for much of the match, but Perez was able to drop Martinez just as the first round ended. Martinez bounced back to win a low-volume decision as he led 74-52 in striking, with Perez failing to land the only takedown attempt in the match.
Now 15-4 as a pro, Martinez has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, has two decision losses, and one DQ loss. All nine of Martinez’s UFC fights have seen the second round, with eight making it to round three, and six ending in decisions. All three of his UFC fights to end early have come in late round KOs (2-1), with both of his finishes ending in third round knockouts.
Overall, Martinez is a patient striker who loves to throw knees and a ton of kicks, but doesn’t really add anything in terms of grappling. Training out of Factory X in Colorado, Martinez is teammates with Chris Gutierrez, who finished Vince Morales with leg strikes in 2020. Martinez struggled with getting taken down earlier in his career, as he was grounded three times in each of his first two UFC fights, but has since only been taken down once in his last seven matches on 17 attempts.
Vince Morales
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off his first early win in the UFC, Morales landed a first round knockout against Louis Smolka, who had previously never been knocked out although has now suffered two straight KO losses. Morales had been scheduled to face Nathaniel Wood on the London card back in March, but after flying over there he came down with an illness and was forced to withdraw. After starting out 1-3 in the UFC, he’s now won two straight to pull his record back to even and he arguably should have won the fight against Benito Lopez, but instead lost a unanimous decision. Morales originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS in 2018, but got submitted in the second round and then took a fight in Bellator before getting the call up to make his UFC debut in a brutally tough spot against Song Yadong. Morales at least showed his toughness and survived to see a decision, and he’s now gone the distance in five of his last seven fights.
In his last fight, Morales dropped Smolka two minutes into the fight with a short right hook that caught Smolka squarely in the jaw. Morales finished ahead in striking 27-23, while neither guy attempted a takedown. Smolka consistently pushed forward, forcing the action, and Smolka was landing 11.31 SS/min in the fight, while Morales landed 13.28/min.
Now 11-5 as a pro, Morales has six wins by KO, two by submission and three decisions. He has one loss by TKO (leg strikes), two by submission, and two more decision defeats. Eight of his last nine fights have seen the second round, with the one exception being his recent R1 KO win.
Overall, Morales is a well rounded fighter, who’s biggest issue has been defending leg kicks, but he claims he’s patched that hole in his game. After getting his legs violently attacked in two straight fights in 2019-2020, Morales dealt with multiple injuries that forced him into a 15 month layoff, and during that time he relocated to Vegas and switched teams to Syndicate MMA. He’s gone 2-0 since returning and has looked better recently. While Morales has a background in wrestling, he’s only even attempted a takedown in one of his six UFC fights, which was when he landed one takedown on four attempts in his second most recent match. Just keep in mind that skill set is always there if he needs it and Morales is also a cousin of wrestling ace Ricky Simon.
Fight Prediction:
Martinez will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.
Morales has been incredibly prone to leg strikes in the past, but he claims he’s worked on that. That statement should get tested in this matchup, as Martinez loves to throw a ton of kicks. Interestingly, Morales trains with Davey Grant who is the only person to ever knock out Jonathan Martinez, while Jonathan Martinez trains with Chris Gutierrez, who is the only person to ever hand Morales a KO/TKO loss. So these two should have a pretty good feel for what the other brings to the table. We’re expecting this to be a closer fight than the odds indicate, and Martinez has been vulnerable to getting dropped, as he’s been knocked down twice in his last three fights. While the most likely outcome is that Martinez uses his kicks to chip away at Morales and outland his way to another low-volume decision win, we like Morales’ chances of pulling off the upset either with a late knockout or in a close decision where he has the bigger moments and the judges put less value in Martinez’s kicks.
Our favorite bet here is Morales ML at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Martinez has only topped 75 DraftKings points once in nine UFC fights, which was when he landed a R3 KO against Frankie Saenz and tacked on a ridiculous three knockdowns. His other R3 win scored just 68 DraftKings points and with average striking volume and just one takedown landed in his last seven fights, he’s generally not a guy that helps you very often in DFS. To return value at his expensive price tag, he’ll either need to land a knockout in the first two rounds or the third round with multiple knockdowns behind it. The only time Morales has ever been finished on the feet came in a rare TKO by leg strikes against one of the more dangerous kickers in the game in Chris Gutierrez. We don’t see Martinez getting a finish by leg strikes here and he’ll need to be the first fighter to ever turn the lights out on Morales to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Morales is coming off a career performance where he scored 111 DraftKings points in a first round KO win over Louis Smolka. That was a great pace up spot where we fully expected the winner to score well and predicted a potential ceiling performance out of Morales going in. The same cannot be said here, but Morales’ cheap price tag and theoretical ability to wrestle keep him in the value play discussion. We could see his ownership elevated to some extent following his recent scoring explosion, which lowers his tournament appeal to some extent, but on a smaller slate there are definitely worse plays out there. We’ve seen Martinez get dropped in two of his last three fights and it’s possible Morales could fill up the stat sheet to still serve as a value play even without a finish, although it would likely require him to land a knockdown and multiple takedowns. He only scored 68 and 54 DraftKings points in his two UFC decision wins, and this sets up as a pace down matchup, so the most likely scenario is that the winner of this fight fails to score well. The odds imply Morales has a 32% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #8
Omar Morales
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Morales is smartly moving back up to 155 lb where he started his career with a perfect 10-0 record, after going 1-2 at 145 lb in his last three fights. He’s coming off the first early loss of his career, which came against Jonathan Pearce in a second round rear-naked choke. Prior to that, Morales fought to four straight decisions in his first four UFC appearances. The last time he finished an opponent came in a second round TKO by leg kicks on DWCS in 2019.
In his recent submission loss to Pearce, Morales got taken down 6 times on 11 attempts in a fight that lasted less than two rounds. Each fighter only landed 12 significant strikes, but Pearce led in total strikes 55-27 and in control time 5:33-0:19. It was a highly impressive grappling performance from Pearce, especially when you consider that Morales came into the fight 3-1 in the UFC and with a solid 87% takedown defense after only allowing one takedown on eight attempts in his previous five fights.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Morales has two wins by KO, five by submission, and four decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in his recent submission loss, with his only other career loss coming in a 2020 decision against Giga Chikadze in Morales’ first career fight down at 145 lb. While he has six first round finishes on his record, his last six fights have all seen the second round and the last time he landed a first round finish was in a 2018 Bellator fight just before going on DWCS. The only time he’s ever landed a finish beyond the first round was in his DWCS match when he finished his opponent 66 seconds into round two.
Overall, Morales is a durable fighter who’s gone the distance with dangerous strikers like Gabriel Benitez and Giga Chikadze. He generally slows down the pace in fights and he’s never landed more than 69 significant strikes in a UFC match or absorbed more than 65 and he averages just 3.40 SSL/min and 2.83 SSA/min. He’s also only landed three takedowns in his last six fights, despite having five submission wins on his record.
Uros Medic
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, Medic was submitted by Jalin Turner in the first round of his last fight. Prior to that, Medic knocked out a terrible Aalon Cruz in the opening minutes of his UFC debut after landing another first round knockout on DWCS in 2020.
In Medic’s recent loss, Turner was able to take him down early in the first round and control him for half the round before the fight briefly returned to the feet. Medic was clearly outmatched wherever the fight went, and Turner quickly had Medic covering up along the cage and then crumpled him to the mat. The ref gave Medic every chance to remain in the fight, which simply resulted in Turner going to the mat with him and immediately choking him out opposed to being awarded a TKO stoppage. It was a near flawless performance from Turner, after he entered as a slight underdog. Turner finished ahead 25-6 in significant strikes and 40-6 in total strikes, while landing his only takedown attempt. That fight lasted a tick over four minutes and was the second longest fight of Medic’s career.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Medic has still never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes, with seven of his fights ending in the first round and the other ending in the opening minute of round two. He has five wins by KO and two by submission, to go along with his recent submission loss. Medic notably started his pro career at 185 lb in 2016, but dropped down to 170 lb for his second pro fight. After fighting his next four matches at 170 lb, he then dropped another weight class down to 155 lb when he went on DWCS and that’s where he’s stayed. At 6’1” he has good size for the 155 lb division.
Overall, Medic is a one-dimensional striker who fought his entire pre-UFC career on the Alaskan regional scene facing a much lower level of competition. His aggressive approach to fighting generally forces the action, but it will be interesting to see if he institutes any changes following the first loss of his career. Both his striking and grappling defenses look highly suspect, and he relies entirely on quickly finishing opponents on the feet to win fights. Now he faces an opponent who’s never been knocked out.
Fight Prediction:
Medic will have a 2” height advantage, but Morales will have a 2” reach advantage. Medic is seven years younger than the 36-year-old Morales.
Both fighters in this matchup are coming off the first early loss of their careers, and both of those losses ended in rear-naked chokes. However, Morales has proven himself to be a durable fighter who can hang with high-level strikers in the UFC, while Medic has yet to prove anything at the UFC level. It will be interesting to see if Morales looks to capitalize on Medic’s non-existent ground game after seeing how successful Jalin Turner was on the mat against Medic. However, we really haven’t seen much grappling from Morales at the UFC level, despite the fact that he has five submission wins on his pre-UFC record. While he may not need to grapple to get the win, it would appear to be his path of least resistance. It’s also possible we see one or both guys come in a bit more tentative after getting finished for the first time, and Morales always seems to slow down the pace to some extent in his UFC fights. The real question is whether or not Medic will dial back his aggression as he’s generally the one looking to force the action. If Medic continues to fight the way he always has, he could get himself into trouble quickly and get finished by Morales. However, if we see a more methodical approach from Medic, there’s a very slight chance we could see this ending in a slower paced decision. Either way, we like Morales to get the win as the much more well rounded fighter.
Our favorite bet here is Morales’ ML at -135.
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DFS Implications:
Morales has failed to top 74 DraftKings points in any of his five UFC fights and his slower paced striking-heavy fighting style is poorly suited to DFS scoring production. However, he’s in a very favorable pace-up matchup against an Alaskan fighter who has never been in a fight that lasted longer than six minutes. Morales is also moving back up to 155 lb for this fight, where he went 10-0 prior to moving down to 145 lb for his last three fights. While we never want to be too heavily invested in Morales in DFS, this is probably the best spot he’s ever been in to hit a ceiling performance. Unless he puts on a dominating grappling performance, which we’ve yet to ever see from him, he still needs a finish to be useful and all three of his UFC wins have gone the distance. The odds imply he has a 56% chance to win, a 38% chance to get a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Medic put up a massive 122 point DraftKings score in an ultra favorable matchup in his UFC debut with the help of the ref allowing the fight to go on entirely too long. He unsurprisingly followed that up with a complete dud in his last outing where he scored just two points. He’s a one-dimensional striker with terrible defense and now faces an opponent who’s never been knocked out. Medic fought his entire pre-UFC MMA career on the highly questionable Alaskan scene and we’ve yet to see him defeat an actual UFC level talent. With that said, his aggressive approach to fighting is great for DFS and all seven of his pro wins have come in under six minutes. He looks like a round one or bust play who will be over owned relative to his chances of landing a first round finish, but he’s shown clear upside when he does win. The odds imply Medic has a 44% chance to win, a 28% chance to get a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in R1.
Fight #7
Jailton Almeida
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Almeida had been scheduled to face Maxim Grishin here, but Grishin withdrew once he turned on the tape and instead Almeida is moving up to Heavyweight to take on Parker Porter on 31 day’s notice.
Coming off a R1 TKO win in his recent February 2022 UFC debut, Almeida has only been in the UFC for three months, but apparently wants to stay active even if it means taking a fight at Heavyweight. He’s finished 10 straight opponents since losing a 2018 decision, which remains his only fight to make it past the seven minute mark. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round submission win on DWCS in September 2021 against a 9-0 Sambo “Master.”
In his recent TKO win in his UFC debut, Almeida took on a fraudulent Danilo Marques, who had lucked into a 2-1 start to his UFC career, but was cut following his second straight loss. It took Almeida all of seven seconds to shoot for his first takedown and then he methodically worked his way to full mount where he rained down ground and pound when Marques was on his back and threatened a rear-naked choke everytime Marques considered rolling to his stomach. It was clearly just a matter of time before the fight was stopped, and the ref eventually stepped in as Marques covered up.
Now 15-2 as a pro, Almeida has six wins by KO and nine by submission. His only early loss came in a 2017 16 second R1 KO, while he also lost the only decision he’s ever been to. All 15 of Almeida’s wins have come in under seven minutes, with 11 ending in round one and four in the opening two minutes of round two.
Overall, Almeida seems to come into every fight with the same game plan of quickly getting things to the mat as violently as possible while aggressively hunting for finishes. Three of his last four wins have come by submission and eight of his last 10 wins have ended in round one. He’s a BJJ black belt and an absolute powerhouse, which definitely makes you wonder about his cardio. Almeida has competed anywhere from Middleweight to Heavyweight in the past, but his last six fights have all been at Light Heavyweight. His two fights at Heavyweight both occurred in 2019 and both ended in first round knockouts, albeit against dubious competition.
Parker Porter
5th UFC Fight (3-1)Coming off his third straight decision win, Porter defeated another former Light Heavyweight in Alan Baudot. Prior to the string of decision victories, Porter was knocked out in the first round of his short notice UFC debut against Chris Daukaus. Porter is now 37 years old and was once knocked out by Jon Jones a lifetime ago back in 2008.
In his recent decision win over Baudot, Porter landed far fewer significant strikes than in each of his previous two fights, but he did land two takedowns on eight attempts with six and a half minutes of control time. Baudot actually finished ahead in significant strikes 55-43, while Porter led in total strikes 82-61. In his previous two decision wins, Porter outlanded his opponents 149-117 and 126-114 in significant strikes.
Now 12-6 as a pro, Porter has five wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. All six of his losses have come early, with three KOs. two submissions, and one DQ. Five of his six early losses occurred in round one, while two of his three submission wins came in round two, and three of his five knockout victories took place in round three. It’s been 11 years since he finished an opponent in the first round.
Overall, Porter is a Heavyweight journeyman who throws a good amount of volume and mixes in grappling, but lacks knockout power or overly impressive submission skills. After only one of his first 15 pro fights went the distance, Porter has now been to the judges in three straight fights and has yet to finish an opponent at the UFC level. He likes going for kimura and keylock submissions, but hasn’t landed one since 2019, with his second most recent submission win occurring in 2015. His only two KO/TKO wins since 2011 both came in the third round. It seems like his fighting style relies on waiting for his opponents to gas out, allowing him to look for a finish or to simply outland his way to decisions, which could actually be an effective approach in this next matchup.
Fight Prediction:
Almeida will have a 3” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, despite the fact that he’s moving up from Light Heavyweight to Heavyweight for this matchup. He’s also seven years younger than the 37-year-old Porter.
This is one of those weird/intriguing matchups where everyone thinks one thing will happen, but we have several unknown variables at play that have the potential to cause chaos. The first of those is that Almeida will be taking a fight up at Heavyweight on just 31 day’s notice after he had been planning on competing at Light Heavyweight. The second unknown is Almeida’s cardio. He lost the only fight he’s ever been in that lasted longer than seven minutes, which occurred back in 2018 when he was still competing down at 185 lb. He’s only been past the first round twice since then and both of those fights ended in early second round submissions. Almeida somehow went straight from fighting at 185 lb in 2018 to competing at Heavyweight in 2019, where he landed a pair of first round knockouts, albeit against guys making their pro debuts. After that Almeida dropped down to 205 lb later that year, where he stayed until now. While we don’t know what Almeida’s cardio will look like later in fights at this stage of his career, it would be surprising if it looked good based on how explosive he is and how much energy he exerts early in fights. Compounding that, he’ll now be facing an opponent who’s 60 lb heavier than the guys he has been fighting and it will require more energy to get Porter to the mat if he continues to rely on pure strength to land takedowns. While Almeida has a really good chance of landing a first round finish, if the fight makes it to the midway mark of round two, we expect him to slow down substantially, which would give Porter an opportunity to take over and either land a late finish or win the last two rounds to grind out a decision. It’s an interesting live betting opportunity going into round two. While we’re still predicting that Almeida lands a first round finish, it’s not nearly as confident of a pick as the odds might lead you to believe.
Our favorite bet here is “Almeida R1 KO” at +650.
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DFS Implications:
Almeida’s recent UFC debut went about as well as he could have asked for as he immediately got the fight to the mat and worked his way to a first round finish that scored 118 DraftKings points and 130 points on FanDuel. He now checks in as the most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate, with essentially no other exciting 9K fighters to pivot to. That should drive Almeida’s ownership up through the roof, despite the fact that he only has 177 seconds of UFC cage time and is moving up a weight class on just a month’s notice to take on a Heavyweight. We also have no clue what his cardio will look like if this fight makes it to the back half, as he’s only been in one fight that lasted longer than seven minutes in his career and that came in a 2018 decision loss when he was fighting down at 185 lb. His upside is undeniable as he’s a grappling powerhouse who has landed finishes in under seven minutes in all 15 of his career wins. However, while Almeida has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any fighter on the slate in a win, the weight move and cardio concerns still make this a high variance spot. He likely needs a first round finish to return value and he scored “just” 94 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel in his R2 submission win on DWCS just before making his debut. The odds imply he has an 82% chance to win, a 61% chance to land a finish, and a 37% chance it comes in round one.
Obviously everyone and their mom thinks Almeida is going to come in and pig roast Porter in the opening minutes, but what does this fight look like if he can’t get Porter out of there in the first round and a half? Does Almeida pull a Rodolfo Vieira and look like he was just roofied at that point? The uncertainty surrounding Almeida’s cardio and his move up to Heavyweight keep Porter in the gross tournament winning plays discussion in the biggest leverage spot on the slate. He most likely gets violently finished in the first round, but that’s the risk you take when you shoot for the top in DFS tournaments. Porter has shown the ability to score well in decisions through striking volume, and if he can survive the first 7-8 minutes he has the potential to be facing a gassed opponent, which would greatly increase his chances of landing a finish. It’s easy to get leverage on the field without going all in on Porter and that looks like the move here in tournaments. FanDuel hilariously priced Porter at $20, which makes him the ultimate high-risk leverage play over there where his ownership will be nonexistent. The odds imply Porter has a 18% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Joseph Holmes
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his UFC debut, Holmes had a seven fight winning streak broken by Jamie Pickett back in January. That was the first time Holmes has seen the third round since his 2019 pro debut, where he suffered his only other career loss in another decision defeat. Still just 26 years old, Holmes appears to have all of the physical tools to be a dangerous UFC fighter and at 6’4” and he’s got good size for the Middleweight division. However, he’s still very raw in all facets of his game. He does train out of Glory MMA & Fitness with James Krause, so we expect to see improvements in Holmes’ game every time he steps inside the Octagon, although it’s only been four months since he last fought.
In that recent loss to Pickett, we saw extended periods of time with the two fighters pushing each other up against the fence in a boring low-volume decision. The stats actually ended up being very close with Holmes leading 51-50 in significant strikes and 59-54 in total strikes, with both fighters amassing a little over three minutes of control time. However, Pickett landed more strikes in the later round after Holmes took an early lead in round one. Pickett also landed two of his four takedown attempts, while Holmes failed to land either of his two attempts. Holmes slowed down substantially early in round two and has yet to ever win a fight that lasted longer than eight minutes. He also appeared pretty wide-eyed in his debut, so it will be interesting to see how he looks in his second UFC appearance.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Holmes has two wins by TKO and five by submission. Both of his TKO wins occurred in round one as did two of his submission victories. His other three submission wins occurred midway through the second round. Holmes generally fights at 185 lb, but has fought anywhere from 170 lb to 200 lb in the past.
Overall, Holmes is a work in progress who needs to improve both his wrestling and striking. With a background in Jiu-Jitsu, he’s most comfortable on the mat looking for rear-naked chokes, but he struggled to get the fight to the ground in his recent debut. His cardio is also a concern and he looked to be fading early in the second round of that recent fight. He’s not a guy we have much confidence in right now, but the same can be said about his next opponent.
Alen Amedovski
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)It’s been almost three years since Amedovski took the dubious honors of becoming the only fighter that John Phillips ever defeated in his six UFC appearances. That loss came in an immediate 17 second R1 KO in September 2019. Since then, Amedovski has withdrawn from three booked fights and we were beginning to wonder if he was ever coming back. In his 2019 UFC debut, Amedovski took on decision machine Krzysztof Jotko and got dominated for three full rounds. In one of the more pathetic statistical performances you’ll see, Amedovski landed just six total strikes in 15 minutes, while Jotko landed 43 significant strikes and 111 total strikes. Jotko also went 4 for 4 on takedowns and amassed over nine and a half minutes of control time. Amedovski looked completely helpless off his back and seemed a little undersized for the Middleweight division.
In his last fight, Amedovski took on John Phillips and got knocked out in just 17 seconds as the two immediately met in the center of the Octagon. Amedovski landed just two strikes in the match and now has a total of eight significant strikes landed in two UFC fights.
Now 8-2 as a pro, all eight of Amedovski’s wins have come by KO in the first two rounds, including six in round one. However, the majority of those wins came against opponents with little to no experience. He’s also been knocked out in the first round himself and lost the only decision he’s ever been to.
Overall, Amedovski has done nothing to impress us so far in the UFC and showed in his first two UFC fights that he can be dominated both on the mat and the feet. He’s a one-dimensional striker who has yet to prove he can compete at the UFC level and hasn’t fought in years.
Fight Prediction:
Holmes will have a 6” height and reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 34-year-old Amedovski.
This is a low-level fight between unimpressive talents and in reality neither guy really belongs in the UFC. Holmes is primarily a grappler, but isn’t great at getting fights to the mat and has questionable cardio, while Amedovski is a pure striker who is helpless off his back. Neither one of these two have ever won a fight that made it to the third round. If Holmes can get the fight to the mat, there’s a good chance he can find a finish, most likely with a rear-naked choke, but if Amedovski can keep it standing then he has a puncher’s chance to land a knockout. We don’t have much confidence in either of them, but we’ll say Holmes wins by round two rear-naked choke submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Holmes R2 Submission” at +950.
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DFS Implications:
Holmes’ grappling makes him especially interesting on DraftKings, but the fact that all seven of his career wins have come in the first two rounds presents upside on all DFS platforms. He’ll now face an opponent in Alen Amedovski who’s terrible off his back so if Holmes can land a takedown he has a great chance of landing a finish. However, if the fight stays standing then things could get dicey. Holmes has good size for the division, but is still pretty green in his striking and is facing an opponent who has landed knockouts in all eight of his wins. Holmes also has cardio concerns and began to fade early in the second round of his last fight, so there are multiple ways he busts here. Overall, he’s a low floor, high ceiling, high-owned play. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 48% chance to land a finish, and a 23% chance it comes in the first round.
Amedovski amazingly has just 9 total DraftKings points combined between his first two UFC fights and that’s still one more point than the total number of significant strikes he landed in those two matches. He hasn’t fought in nearly three years since getting knocked out in 17 seconds, which adds a lot of uncertainty to the mix, but his 8-0 pre-UFC record with eight early knockouts at least presents some theoretical upside. If Amedovski can keep this fight standing, he has a puncher’s chance to land a knockout, which would essentially lock him into tournament winning lineups if it happens. However, if he gets taken down he’ll be helpless on the mat, so this is the definition of a boom or bust spot. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Junyong Park
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from the first KO loss of his career, Park was finished in the second round of an October 2021 fight against Gregory Rodrigues in what turned into a wild back and forth brawl down the stretch. Prior to that, Park had rattled off three straight decision wins since getting submitted in the second round of his 2019 UFC debut.
In his last fight, Park was finished midway through the second round in a crazy back and forth finishing sequence. Rodrigues took Park down midway through the first round and controlled him on the mat for the remainder of the round. Park came out in round two looking to land a knockout and we saw a wild early exchange with Park connecting on several heavy shots. At that point Rodrigues looked to get the fight back to the ground but almost got his neck wrapped up by Park before the two returned to their feet and resumed swinging. Rodrigues then again looked to return the fight to the mat and did so with a beautiful judo throw. However, Park returned to his feet as Rodrigues struggled to control him on the ground. The two stood and traded for the next 30 seconds and Rodrigues looked to be in danger, but Park was also slowing down and Rodrigues flipped the script with a big right hand that had Park stumbling backwards. The fight was quickly stopped as Rodrigues continued to land strikes against a dazed Park along the fence. Both guys looked exhausted by the end and Rodrigues came dangerously close to getting finished just before he was able to turn the tides and land a finish of his own.
Now 13-5 as a pro, Park has five wins by KO, three by submission, and five decisions. However, he’s still in search of his first UFC early win and his last finish came in a 2018 R1 TKO in his last fight before joining the UFC. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses have come in the second round. The one time Park was finished prior to joining the UFC came in a 2016 R2 rear-naked choke against Shavkat Rakhmonov, who’s now murdering everyone in his path in the UFC. Eight of Park’s last nine fights have made it to the second round, with five seeing round three, and four going the distance. Park spent a portion of his early career fighting at 170 lb before settling in at 185 lb in 2018. He went 5-1 at 170 lb with his lone loss ending in a split decision and four of those five wins coming early. He’s also had three fights at 174-176 lb, where he went 2-1, with all three fights ending early. He competed four times at 185 lb prior to joining the UFC, winning the last three of those, with two of those wins coming by KO. All five of his UFC fights have also been at 185 lb, where he’s gone 3-2, bringing his career 185 lb record to 6-3. So overall, only two of his career finishes have come at 185 lb.
Park seems slightly undersized at 185 lb and is generally grinding out decisions with a mix of takedowns and striking. Prior to his recent KO loss, he had been far more measured with his approach, and really seemed to be pushing for a finish in his last match. It will be interesting to see how the first KO loss of his career affects his approach to this next fight, but it would be surprising if he didn’t settle back down some based on how the last one ended. Working in his favor, Park likes to get fights to the ground and look for chokes and now he’ll face an opponent coming off his first career submission loss.
Eryk Anders
14th UFC Fight (6-6, NC)Also hoping to bounce back from an early loss, Anders suffered his first career submission loss against jiu-jitsu wizard Andre Muniz. Anders then recently had to deal with a chainsaw mishap where he bounced a running chainsaw off the top of his foot, cutting it wide open. Apparently he was able to get it stitched up without any lasting damage and only missed a few days of training though.
In Anders’ last fight, it didn’t take long for Muniz to get the fight to the ground, as he landed his first takedown attempt less than a minute into the fight. Anders did a good job of quickly returning to his feet, but he was never able to escape the grasp of Muniz, who returned the fight to the mat midway through the round. It didn’t take long from that point for Muniz to work his way to a belly down armbar submission and force a tap. That was Muniz’s third straight round one submission win and opponents rarely make it out of the first round against him, so we don’t hold it against Anders too much.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Anders has eight wins by KO, one by submission, and five decisions. The only time he’s ever been submitted came in the first round of his last fight, while his lone KO/TKO loss came in a 2018 five-round fight against Thiago Santos in a post round-three TKO where Anders couldn’t continue and the fight was stopped. His other four losses have all gone the distance, with two of those four decisions being split. He also has a 2019 split decision win. Anders has bounced between 185 lb and 205 lb throughout his career, with four of his 12 UFC fights taking place at 205 lb (2-2), including his lone TKO lone, and his other nine UFC fights occurring at 185 lb (4-4, NC). The last time Anders finished an opponent at 185 lb was late in the third round of a 2018 fight, with his only other early UFC win at 185 lb coming in a first round KO in his 2017 UFC debut. Ander’s only other finish in the UFC came up at 205 lb against an absolutely terrible opponent in Vinicius Moreira, who was once knocked out by a tightly wound screen door. To Anders’ credit, he was on the verge of finishing Darren Stewart at 185 lb in 2021, but idiotically landed an illegal knee to force a No Contest just as it appeared the fight was about to be stopped from strikes. Overall, seven of Anders’ 13 UFC fights have gone the distance, two have ended in third round KO/TKOs (1-1), and four have been stopped in the first round (2-1, NC). Prior to joining the UFC, Anders won his first eight pro fights, with five first round finishes, one third round win, and two decision victories, including a five-round decision win over Brendan Allen in an LFA title fight. Since landing a R1 KO in his 2017 UFC debut, 9 of Anders’ last 11 fights (not counting his No Contest) have made it to the third round.
Overall, Anders is a pretty well rounded UFC veteran who’s a BJJ brown belt, but is primarily looking for knockouts. With that said, he trains out of Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and recently said he’s been working more on his grappling. We generally see Anders involved in slower paced affairs and he’s never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a UFC fight, averaging just 3.16 SSL/min in his UFC career. He’s sporadic with his takedown attempts, failing to land any in seven of his last eight fights, but landing three or more in three UFC matches. He’s a former Alabama linebacker who had stints in the NFL, CFL and AFL and is massive at 185 lb. If the UFC had a 195 lb division, Anders would be perfect for it. He had a November 2020 fight canceled due to weight cutting issues, so it will be important to monitor him closely on the scale Friday.
Fight Prediction:
Anders will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Anders will have a considerable size advantage and it’s worth reiterating that he’s fought at both 185 lb and 205 lb in his career, while Park fought mostly at 170 lb before moving up to 185 lb the year he joined the UFC. While that should give Anders the power advantage, it will also likely mean that Park will be the quicker fighter. Park has also pushed the pace more than Anders in their respective UFC career and averages both more strikes and takedowns landed. That should give him the advantage if this fight goes the distance, but he’ll need to be careful not to get clipped or taken down by the larger fighter in Anders. It would be really surprising to see Park finish Anders, and he’s likely fighting for a decision. While Anders has the power and theoretically the submission skills to get Park out of there, his finishes have been few and far between. So overall, we expect this fight to end in a close decision, with Park likely landing more strikes, but the more impactful shots coming from Anders. The odds seemed to open way too wide and the betting market agreed, as we saw Anders’ line come down throughout the week. This fight still feels like it should be closer to a coinflip and we like Anders to pull off the upset, likely in a close decision, but with a chance he gets the finish.
Our favorite bet here is Anders’ ML at +175.
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DFS Implications:
Park has been a decision grinder since moving up from 170 lb to 185 lb in 2018 and has just two career finishes at the higher weight class. In his three UFC decision wins, Park has shown a decent scoring floor through a combination of striking and grappling, with DraftKings totals of 77, 128, and 93. The one explosion spot came against a horizontally challenged John Phillips, who got mauled on his back for the entire fight. It would be very surprising to see Park find that same level of ground and pound success against a much larger and better grappler in Eryk Anders. The chances of Park landing a finish are also quite low, so overall it will be a challenge for him to return value at his expensive price tag. However, we expect that to be the general consensus, so working in Park’s favor, he should end up being somewhat lower owned in tournaments making him an interesting pivot off of the higher owned options. The odds imply he has a 64% chance to win, a 25% chance to get a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Anders’ low striking volume generally makes it tough for him to score well without an early finish as he averages just 3.16 SSL/min. Also working against him, 9 of his last 11 fights (not counting a No Contest) have made it to the third round, with seven of those ending in decisions. However, he was on pace to break the slate in his second most recent fight at 185 lb before he idiotically landed an illegal knee that stopped the action late in round one and resulted in a No Contest. He still finished with 50 DraftKings points in the No Contest, which would have been good for 140+ had he legally finished the fight. So clearly he has a huge ceiling, it’s just rare for him to show it. In his last two decision wins he scored just 81 and 56 points, although he did score 91 points in his first UFC decision win. At his cheaper price tag and on a smaller slate, he has the potential to still serve as a value play with a decision victory, but that’s far from a sure thing. He’ll have a noticeable size and power advantage in this matchup and he’s competed multiple times up at 205 lb, while Park fought at 170 lb until 2018. So while we rarely see Anders land a finish, the potential is certainly there and Park is coming off a KO loss, albeit the first of his career. Anders will likely either need a finish in the first two rounds or for the majority of the other underdogs on the card to bust to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 36% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Tabatha Ricci
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Looking to build some momentum after notching her first UFC win, Ricci won a unanimous 30-27 wrestling-heavy decision over UFC newcomer Maria Oliveira. Ricci came into the UFC in June 2021 with a perfect 5-0 record and made her short notice debut against Manon Fiorot up a weight class in one of the tougher spots you could ask for. Ricci originally turned pro in MMA in 2013 at just 18 years old. However, she then went and fought in a Japanese hybrid Judo league called SEIZA for a while before returning to MMA in 2020. Upon her return, she joined the LFA and defeated on a series of very low level opponents in Kelsey Arnesen, who was fighting for the first time as a pro, a 36-year-old Vanessa Marie Grimes, who came in with a 1-5 pro record with four early losses, and Shawna Lee Ormsby, who entered with a 2-3 pro record.
In her recent win over Oliveira, Ricci immediately looked to get the fight to the ground, but forgot to set up her attempts and Oliveira was easily able to evade. After the majority of the first round played out on the feet, Ricci was finally able to land a takedown in the final minute after catching a kick, however, she didn’t have enough time to do anything with it. Ricci was able to get the fight to the mat earlier in round two as she landed her first takedown attempt 80 seconds into the round. Ricci looked like she was preparing to go for an armbar, but Oliveira was able to use the fence to return to her feet. Ricci landed another takedown late in the round, but again ran out of time before she could do much with it. She landed two more takedowns in round three, but once again wasn’t able to set up any sort of submission attempt and just rode out a decision on the mat.
Now 6-1 as a pro, Ricci has one win by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Her only career loss was the R2 TKO in her UFC debut. Both of her submission wins have come by R1 armbar, while two of her last three fights have ended in round two TKOs (1-1).
Overall, Ricci relies on her grappling to win fights. She’s a BJJ and Judo black belt and a training partner of Mackenzie Dern, so unsurprisingly she has a solid ground game and looks most dangerous with her armbar submissions. She can explode for flurries of strikes, but doesn’t have a ton of power so really isn’t much of a knockout threat. The fact that she wasn’t able to land a finish in her last fight is concerning for ability to land finishes in the future and all of her pre-UFC finishes came against a very low level of competition.
Polyana Viana
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Fifteen months removed from her second straight first round submission win, Viana finished Mallory Martin in February 2021 after defeating Emily Whitmire in August 2020. For the record, Martin has been submitted in both of her career early losses and Whitmire has been submitted in all five of her career losses, so those were both great matchups for Viana to get a finish. Viana hasn’t been the most active fighter, with just two fights since 2019, but she’s made the most out of both of them after losing three straight in 2018-2019. Viana also landed a first round submission win in her 2018 UFC debut, and her most recent UFC loss also ended in a first round submission. Her other two losses with the organization both went the distance. It’s somewhat concerning that Viana was submitted by Veronica Macedo, who went 1-4 in the UFC, although that fight did take place up at 125 lb, opposed to 115 lb where Viana typically competes.
In her last fight, Martin foolishly took Viana to the mat early in the first round after catching a kick. Viana quickly worked her way to an arm-triangle off her back and then it was just a matter of time before she either locked that in or transitioned to an armbar, which she did, to force a tap. Viana also landed a ton of ground strikes as she had Martin wrapped up in an arm-triangle, and while Martin finished ahead 5-4 in significant strikes, Viana led 71-14 in total strikes.
Now 12-4 as a pro, Viana has four first round wins by KO/TKO, including one over Amanda Ribas prior to joining the UFC, and eight submission victories, with seven coming in round one and one in round two. Six of her submission wins have ended in armbars, while she also has two wins by rear-naked choke. She’s also been submitted once in the first round by armbar herself, and has lost all three of the decisions she’s been to, although the last of those was split. She’s never won a fight that lasted longer than six minutes and twenty seconds and 12 of her 16 fights have ended in the first round. While she does have four KO/TKO wins on her record, three of those came in her first four pro fights and she hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2015. Polyana came into the UFC with a 9-1 record, but has since gone 3-3. Viana has fought almost her entire career at 115 lb, but did move up to 125 lb for one fight in 2019, which is when she suffered the only early loss of her career in a first round armbar.
Overall, Viana is a dangerous grappler who loves working off her back. She’s a BJJ brown belt and former jiu-jitsu world champion, as well as a 21-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion. She also won the Jungle Fight Strawweight belt back in 2015. Viana actually finished ahead in striking in both of her UFC decision losses (46-40 and 77-67), but came out behind in control time in each of those. Her one fault is that she’s so good at defensive grappling that she’s content with being controlled or working off her back. That makes it tougher to win decisions, but does allow her to hunt for submissions anywhere the fight goes.
Fight Prediction:
Viana will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup between two armbar specialists. Ricci is the more offensive wrestler, while Viana is the higher level submission threat. It will be interesting to see how willing Ricci is to put Viana on her back after the last two fighters to do that both got submitted in the first round. There’s always a chance that this turns into more of a striking battle than expected if Ricci prefers her chances on the feet, but then she’ll have to deal with the significant height and reach advantages of Viana. They’re both pretty green with their striking, so it’s tougher to say who wins this fight if it stays standing, but we’d be surprised to see either land a knockout. Considering Ricci is the more offensive grappler who’s 3-0 in decisions and Viana is 0-3 with the judges, we give the advantage to Ricci if this fight goes the distance, but Viana is the more likely of the two to land a finish, and it would most likely come in the form of a first round submission based on her track record. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the fight end in a close split-decision if it does go the distance and these two match up pretty evenly on paper, which makes it tougher to feel confident in either getting the win, but we’ll say Viana pulls off the upset.
Our favorite bet here is “Viana R1 Submission” at +1000.
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DFS Implications:
Ricci is coming off a grappling-heavy decision win that was good for 100 points on DraftKings and 87 points on FanDuel and her style of fighting is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system compared to FanDuel. This looks like one of the tougher matchups she could ask for at this stage in her career, as she faces a jiu-jitsu world champion who loves fighting off her back. Ricci will be at risk anytime she lands a takedown, which creates the potential for her to look to keep this fight standing more depending on how she thinks her striking holds up. She will be at a noticeable 4” height and 6” reach disadvantage, which could make things tougher for her on the feet as well. With that said, both of these two are grapplers who are still pretty green when it comes to striking. If it stays standing, look for the fight to end in a lower scoring decision, which presents a clear way this fight busts. However, if Ricci is willing to go to the ground with Viana, then we should see one of the two fighters score well—either Ricci in another grappling-heavy decision or Viana by submission. It’s also not impossible that Ricci can land a submission of her own on the mat, but it would be somewhat surprising considering her inability to get a finish against a much lower level opponent in her last fight. One other thing to consider here is that Ricci trains with one of the most dangerous submission threats in the world in Mackenzie Dern, who’s a ninja at locking up armbars. The odds imply Ricci has a 53% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Viana has been a quintessential R1 or bust fighter for her entire career, with 11 of her 12 pro wins coming in round one, with the other ending early in round two. She scored just 40 and 33 DraftKings points in her two UFC losses, which wouldn’t have been useful even if they had gone her way. Her defensive grappling approach to fighting is akin to Paul Craig’s, which generally scores better on FanDuel than DraftKings, as she’ll rack up submission attempts but not control time. However, with all of her wins coming in under seven minutes, she’ll still score pretty well on both sites when she wins, and it’s hard to see her getting left out of winning lineups at her cheaper price tag with a finish. Unfortunately, the field has caught on to her finishing upside, and Viana was 32% owned on a similar 11 fight card the last time she fought. That makes it tougher to get really excited about playing her in tournaments, but her upside is undeniable. The odds imply she has a 47% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one. Her round one line is laughably off everytime she fights and don’t forget 11 of her 12 career wins (92%) have come in the first round.
Fight #3
Chidi Njokuani
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Stepping into his second UFC fight, Njokuani couldn’t have asked for a better debut, as he became the first fighter to ever finish Marc-Andre Barriault when he landed a 16 second R1 KO. That was Njokuani’s third straight KO win, but the first time he’s finished an opponent since 2016, when he knocked out Andre Fialho in just 21 seconds. He also has wins over Max Griffin and Alan Jouban, among other guys who went on to compete in the UFC. His brother Anthony also previously fought in the UFC. Njokuani had a long 27 pro fight career prior to joining the UFC and is 33 years-old. From 2015 to 2019 he competed in Bellator and he turned pro all the way back in 2007, so he has more experience than your typical guy going into their second UFC fight.
Njokuani’s last fight ended so quickly that it’s hard to take too much away from it, as Barriault almost immediately got caught with a huge right hand and assaulted with ground and pound until the fight was quickly stopped. With that said, Njokuani’s knockout ability clearly translated to the UFC, but it will be interesting to see how he handles grapplers at this level. He often struggled to defend takedowns prior to joining the UFC.
Now 21-7 as a pro, Njokuani has 13 wins by KO, one by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been finished in six of his seven pro losses, with three KOs and three submissions. The last time he lost a fight (2019) was also the first time he ever lost a decision. Five of his six early losses came in the first round, while the other occurred in round two. Njokuani primarily fought at 170 lb until 2017 when moved up to 185 lb. He’s gone 4-2 since making the switch, with four of his last five fights ending early.
Overall, Njokuani is a really dangerous striker who’s tall and long for the division. In addition to his 21-7 pro MMA record, Njokuani went 12-1 as a kickboxer. Despite allegedly being a BJJ black belt, Njokuani's biggest weakness is his grappling and we’ve seen him struggle with being controlled both on the fence and on the mat. That’s how his last three losses occurred, with a 2019 smothering decision loss, a 2018 R1 submission loss, and a 2017 R1 ground and pound TKO loss.
Dusko Todorovic
5th UFC Fight (2-2)With his back against the wall after losing two straight bouts and sitting at 1-2 in the UFC, Todorovic landed a first round ground and pound TKO victory over Maki Pitolo in his last match. Prior to that much needed win, Todorovic lost a decision to UFC newcomer Gregory Rodrigues, who took the fight on short notice. Just before that, Todorovic suffered his first career loss in a R1 TKO against Punahele Soriano. Todorovic started strong in the UFC, with a second round ground and pound TKO victory in his 2020 debut.
In his recent win, Todorovic landed a takedown midway through the round, which Pitolo tried to defend with a Guillotine. While the attempt was decent, Todorovic was able to escape and control Pitolo for the remainder of the fight before forcing a stoppage late in the round as he flattened Pitolo out face down on the mat and pummeled him with punches. He finished ahead 30-13 in significant strikes and 67-13 in total strikes with 2:46 of control time.
Now 11-2 as a pro, Todorovic has seven wins by KO, three by submission, and one decision. He has one KO loss and one decision loss. All 11 of his fights to end early have been stopped in the first two rounds, with eight ending in round one (7-1) and three in round two (3-0). Todorovic is notably the only person to ever knock out Michel Pereira, which occurred in the first round of a 2018 fight just before Todorovic went on DWCS in 2019.
Overall, Todorovic has an aggressive fighting style that largely relies on head movement to avoid taking damage. He has toned that down some in his last couple of fights and now at least sort of keeps his hands up since suffering his first career loss against Soriano, but he might as well have had his hands in his pockets prior to that. That strategy worked for him until it didn’t, but he still doesn’t have a great striking defense and leaves his chin high. He’s a BJJ and Taekwondo black belt, and seems to do his best work on the mat landing ground and pound.
Fight Prediction:
Njokuani will have a 2” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This sets up as one of the most anticipated fights on the cards between two guys known for their finishes. While Todorovic has had a rocky go of things lately, he has the required skill set to attack Njokuani’s biggest weakness, which is his grappling. While Njokuani is technically a “black belt” you wouldn’t guess it by watching his tape. He looks great on the feet, but doesn’t offer much on his back and the outcome of this fight will likely hinge on where it takes place—the feet or the mat. That’s where things get dicey for Todorovic, who has just a 9% takedown accuracy so far going against the 75% takedown defense of Njokuani. Just keep in mind those numbers are based on limited data. Njokuani was taken down once on four attempts on DWCS and then didn’t face a takedown in his debut. Meanwhile, Todorovic has landed two takedowns on seven attempts in the UFC, but failed to land any of his 14 attempts on DWCS, which is also factored into his official UFC stats. The only UFC opponent that Todorovic has tried and failed to takedown is jiu-jitsu champion Gregory Rodrigues, who has yet to be taken down in three UFC fights and one DWCS appearance. If Todorovic can get this fight to the ground, there’s a good chance he can find a finish. However, if Njokuani can keep it standing his power and reach advantage should give Todorovic serious problems and make it tough for Todorovic to rely on just head movement to remain out of danger. In a pure striking battle we expect Njokuani to knock Todorovic out, but if Todorovic can get the fight to the mat we like his chances to finish Njokuani in the first two rounds—most likely through ground and pound but he does have a few submission wins on his record as well. Njokuani has such a size advantage that we could see Todorovic struggle to get him down, so we’ll still say Njokuani gets the win, but that will all depend on his ability to stay upright and this one could go either way.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in R1” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Njokuani is coming off a 16 second R1 KO win in his recent debut that was good for 130 DraftKings and 119 points on FanDuel. That unblemished score sheet should draw in the field like moths to a flame and we could see Njokuani’s ownership double from the last time he fought. That’s obviously concerning for tournaments. Just before exploding onto the UFC scene, Njokuani landed a third round TKO win on DWCS that would have been good for 113 DraftKings points and 101 points on FanDuel. While that doesn’t show up on his DFS stat sheet, it’s encouraging for his chances of returning value even with a later round finish. Working against Njokuani in this next matchup is that Todorovic will likely be looking to get the fight to the ground, which if successful will limit Njokuani’s ability to fill up the stat sheet and still score well in a late round finish. It’s also very unlikely that Njokuani will return value in a decision, so he’s dependent on landing a knockout to be useful here. The odds imply he has a 67% chance to win, a 44% chance to land a finish, and a 22% chance it comes in round one.
Todorovic has been a boom or bust DFS commodity, with 119 and 120 DraftKings points in his two UFC wins and 19 and 9 points in his two losses. Three of his four UFC fights have ended in the first two rounds and he has only been to two decisions in 13 pro fights, although both of those occurred in his last five fights. Ten of his 11 pro wins have come in the first two rounds, including seven in round one. Todorovic averages the third highest number of significant strikes landed on the slate at 5.80/min, while also absorbing the fourth most at 4.96/min. This sets up as a really tough matchup for him on the feet as he faces a taller, longer, and more powerful opponent, but if Todorovic can get the fight to the mat then we like his chances to find a finish. That’s easier said than done, which is why he’s a sizable underdog here, but he has a clear path to victory if he can put Njokuani on his back and control him. The odds imply Todorovic has a 33% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Michel Pereira
8th UFC Fight (5-2)On a four fight winning streak, Pereira has seen the third round in six straight fights, with his last three all going the distance. Those three decision wins came against a gauntlet of dangerous strikers in Khaos Williams, Niko Price, and Andre Fialho.
In his recent decision win over short notice replacement and UFC newcomer Andre Fialho, Pereira started slow, but turned it on in the later rounds. Fialho controlled the center of the Octagon in the first round and forced Pereira to circle the outside of the cage, as Fialho won the round on all three judges’ scorecards. After landing just 17 significant strikes in round one, Pereira landed 47 in round two and 43 in round three to win a unanimous 29-28 decision. The fight appeared much closer than the striking totals indicate, but Pereira finished ahead in significant strikes 107-45 and 112-48 in total strikes, while landing one of his four takedown attempts. Pereira chewed Fialho’s lead leg up throughout the fight as Pereira landed all 14 of the leg strikes he threw. Fialho went on to knock out his next two opponents in the first round, making the win more impressive for Pereira.
Now 27-11 as a pro, Pereira has 10 wins by KO, seven by submission, and nine decisions. The only time he’s ever been knocked out came in the first round of a 2018 fight against Dusko Todorovic, before they joined the UFC. Pereira has also been submitted once, which came in a 2014 R2 armbar. He also has eight decision losses and one by DQ. His only UFC fight not to make it to the third round was his 2019 debut against Danny Roberts where Pereira landed a first round KO. His only other finish was a late third round 2020 submission. Prior to joining the UFC, he had eight straight fights end early.
Overall, Pereira came into the UFC as a barbaric wild man, but has since toned down his antics immensely. Sure he’ll still throw in a random back flip into full mount from time to time, but those circus maneuvers have become few and far between opposed to the central part of his game plan. He does a good job of utilizing movement to avoid taking much damage and throws solid body kicks to maximize his massive frame and keep his opponents at bay. Pereira holds black belts in BJJ and karate and has impressive speed, knockout power, and submission skills. He’s huge for the 170 lb division, and has fought anywhere from 170 lb to 204 lb in the past. Pereira has also landed at least one takedown in six straight fights, with two or more in four of those.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Coming off a close split-decision loss, Ponzinibbio has now lost two of his last three fights since returning in 2021 following a 26-month layoff. His last two fights have both ended in close decisions, with him leading in significant strikes in both of those. Ponzinibbio won seven straight fights from 2015 to 2018, but then dealt with a bad staph infection that kept him out for 26 months. After not fighting at all in 2019 or 2020, Ponzinibbio got knocked out in the first round by Li Jingliang upon his return in January 2021. However, he bounced back with a hardfought decision win over a previously undefeated Miguel Baeza, who’s now dropped three straight and has been knocked out in his last two.
In his recent decision loss to Geoff Neal, Ponzinibbio led in striking in the first two rounds and landed a takedown in round two, but still had one judge rule all three rounds in favor of Neal. Ponzinibbio finished ahead in significant strikes 91-85 and in total strikes 91-86, while landing one of his four takedown attempts.
Now 28-5 as a pro, Ponzinibbio has 15 wins by KO, six by submission, and seven decisions. He’s been knocked out in three of his five career losses, but he’s never been submitted. His other two losses both ended in decisions. Of his 21 early wins, he impressively has 14 first round finishes. His last submission victory came all the way back in 2012 just before joining the UFC, and he seems far more reliant on knocking opponents out to get finishes at the UFC level. The only time since 2011 that he’s landed a finish beyond the first round was in a 2018 R4 KO over Neil Magny. That was also the last time he landed a finish and it’s been nearly five years since he finished an opponent in the opening three rounds.
Overall, Ponzinibbio is looking to turn fights into brawls, especially since returning from his extended layoff. His highest two totals of both significant strikes landed and absorbed came in his last two matches, where he landed an average of 7.07 SS/min and absorbed 6.30/min. That’s nearly 50% higher than his 4.79 SSL/min career average and 40% higher than his career 4.51 SSA/min. He’s 0-3 in UFC fights when he doesn’t finish ahead in significant strikes, as he relies on striking volume and knockout to win fights. He’s only landed five takedowns in 14 UFC appearances and three of those came against Mike Perry in 2017, so he’s combined for just two takedowns landed in his other 13 UFC matches. Looking at his defensive grappling, he has only been taken down once in his last seven fights, but has only faced three takedown attempts over that stretch. Looking at his entire UFC career, he’s been taken down 11 times on 28 attempts and owns a 60% takedown defense.
Fight Prediction:
Pereira will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 73” reach. Pereira is seven years younger than the 35-year-old Ponzinibbio.
This sets up as an exciting fight between two guys who generally put on a good show. With that said Pereira has dialed back his antics and appears to have actually focussed on winning lately. He’s been fighting smarter lately and doing a good job of maximizing his length and foot work to remain out of danger for the most part. Ponzinibbio is an aggressive fighter who should be looking to force the action, which will likely have Pereira circling the Octagon away from him, looking to counterstrike. We also expect Pereira to try and get this fight to the ground some. Pereira has landed nearly the same number of significant strikes on average as Ponzinibbio (4.71/min vs. 4.79/min), but has absorbed far less (3.24/min vs. 4.51/min). When you combine Pereira’s higher striking differential with his grappling advantage in this matchup, we expect him to come out ahead on the scorecards if this goes the distance. Both guys are dangerous strikers so there’s always a chance we see someone get knocked out, but Pereira’s last KO win was in 2019 and Ponzinibbio’s most recent was in 2018. We like Pereira to win a decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Pereira Decision” at +200.
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DFS Implications:
Pereira has failed to top 91 DraftKings points in his last four wins, and scored just 86 points in a 2020 third round submission win. The only time he’s broken the century mark was in his 2019 UFC debut when he landed a first round KO against Danny Roberts. Pereira’s mix of grappling and striking generally provides a decent scoring floor, with three of his last four wins totaling at least 80 points, but he spends a decent amount of time in fights evading contact and circling away from his opponents. At his cheaper price tag, it’s still possible Pereira could serve as a value play on this smaller slate even without a finish, but it would require another lower scoring slate and/or the majority of the cheaper plays to struggle. Working in Pereira’s favor, this is a favorable matchup to put up a higher striking total, as Ponzinibbio is an aggressive brawler who should be forcing the action. Pereira is generally a field favorite and at his cheaper price tag, with the line moving in his favor, we expect him to be very popular. The odds imply Pereira has a 56% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Ponzinibbio is heavily reliant on landing a first round KO to score well in DFS. Four of his 10 UFC wins have come by R1 KO, and he’s averaged 111 DraftKings points in those fights, with the most recent of those occurring back in 2017. His only UFC finish to come beyond the first round was in a 2018 R4 KO against Neil Magny, where Ponzinibbio scored 93 points. In his five UFC decision victories, Ponzinibbio has averaged 69 DraftKings, with only one score above 79, which was when he totaled 90 points when he landed a career best three takedowns plus a knockdown against Mike Perry in 2017. Michel Pereira has notably never been taken down or knocked down in the UFC and Ponzinibbio has landed just two takedowns in his other 13 UFC fights. With DraftKings totals of only 79, 67, 54, and 57 in his other four decision wins, Ponzinibbio is unlikely to return a usable score without a finish here. The odds imply he has a 44% chance to win, a 21% chance to get a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in the first round.
Fight #1
Holly Holm
13th UFC Fight (7-5)Now 40 years old, it’s been 19 months since Holm last competed when she convincingly defeated Irene Aldana in a five-round decision. Aldana was notably coming off a first round KO win over Ketlen Vieira for the MMA mathers. Following the win, Holm dealt with a kidney issue followed by a knee injury and was forced to withdraw from both of her booked fights in 2020.
After landing six total takedowns in her first 11 UFC fights, Holm surprisingly landed five on 14 attempts against Aldana, who entered the match with an elite 93% takedown defense. Holm was consistently able to use body locks to drag Aldana to the mat using sheer old lady strength. Aldana chased Holm around the Octagon for the majority of the fight, while was able to use combination of punches to and kicks to masterfully counterstrike while controlling the range at which the fight took place. Holm outlanded Aldana 154-69 in significant strikes and 187-92 in total strikes.
Now 14-5 as a pro, Holm has eight wins by KO and six decisions. She’s been knocked out once, submitted once, and has three decision losses. Six of her eight career KO wins came in her first seven pro fights before joining the UFC. In her 12 UFC fights, she’s gone 5-3 in decisions, landed a 2015 second round knockout of Ronda Rousey, a 2017 third round knockout of Bethe Correia, was submitted in the fifth round of a 2016 fight against Miesha Tate, and was knocked out in the first round in 2019 by Amanda Nunes. After winning her first three UFC fights in 2015, she’s gone just 4-5 in her last nine, but has now won two straight. Four of her last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being the 2019 R1 KO loss to Nunes. The last time Holm finished an opponent was in the third round of a 2017 fight. While the majority of Holm’s UFC career has been at 135 lb, she also has three fights up at 145 lb (1-2). All three of those fights went the distance, including a pair of 2017 title fight defeats against Germaine de Randamie and Cris Cyborg. Her one UFC win at 145 lb came in a three-round decision against Megan Anderson, who was making her UFC debut.
A former professional boxer who also has kickboxing experience, Holm relies on her strikers and has never submitted anyone in her career. However, she showed a willingness to get fights to the mat and look for ground and pound in her last outing. After landing 6 takedowns on 22 attempts (27%) in her first 11 UFC fights, Holm landed 5 on 14 attempts (36%) in that most recent match. That’s especially impressive considering Aldana came in with an elite 93% takedown defense. Looking at Holm’s takedown defense, she’s only been taken down six times on 26 attempts in her 12 UFC fights and holds a solid 76% takedown defense. However, she has only had to defend four attempts in her last seven fights and the only opponent to attempt more than one was able to get her down, which was Pennington who landed one of her two attempts. Holm has notably lost two of the three fights where she’s been taken down and both of the matches where she was taken down more than once.
Holm had never landed more than 77 significant strikes in a fight leading up to her last match, but after averaging 2.75 SSL/min in her first 11 UFC fights, she landed 154 significant strikes in that match (6.16/min). Aldana has been involved in several high-volume fights in the past and entered the matchup averaging 5.92 SSA/min, while Holm’s next opponent averages just 4.07 SSA/min and also has a stout 90% takedown defense.
This will be the ninth five round fight for Holm since she joined the UFC and 10th of her career. Her first five round fight came in 2014, just before she joined the UFC, and she won with a fifth round KO. Then in Holm’s third UFC fight, she knocked out Ronda Rousey early in the second round of a 2015 match to win the Bantamweight belt. However, she then lost the belt in her next fight in a 2016 fifth round submission against Miesha Tate in a fight that Holm was winning on the scorecards up until that point. That marked the beginning of a three fight skid, as Holm lost a five-round decision to Valentina Shevchenko later that year and then attempted to move up to 145 lb in 2017 to contend for the first women’s Featherweight title, but lost a five-round decision to Germaine de Randamie. Holm then moved back down to 135 lb and knocked out Bethe Correia in the third round of another five-round fight. However, she then moved back up to 145 lb to face Cris Cyborg for the 145 lb title, and again lost a decision. Despite going 0-2 in her first two UFC fights at 145 lb, Holm stayed at the weight class to win a three-round decision over Megan Anderson, before dropping back down to 135 lb in 2019 for yet another title shot, this time against Amanda Nunes, who knocked Holm out in the first round. Then in 2020, Holm accepted a three-round rematch against Raquel Pennington, who Holm had defeated by split decision in her 2015 UFC debut. Holm again won a decision, which brings us to her recent five-round decision win over Irene Aldana. So overall, Holm is 3-5 in her eight UFC five-round fights, but also had a R5 KO in her one five rounder to come before she joined the UFC. Five of her eight UFC five-round fights have been for a title, and she’s lost the last four and gone just 1-4 in those title fights (1-2 at 135 lb & 0-2 at 145 lb). Here other three UFC five-round matches have all been at 135 lb and she’s gone 2-1 in those, winning the last two, with the one loss coming against Valentina Shevchenko. Four of Holm’s eight UFC five-round fights have ended early, but two of her last three have gone the distance.
Here’s a quick summary of all of Holm’s five-round fights:
2020 R5 DEC W (135 lb) vs. Irene Aldana
2019 R1 KO L (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Amanda Nunes
2017 R5 DEC L (145 lb Title Fight) vs. Cris Cyborg
2017 R3 KO W (135 lb) vs. Bethe Correia
2017 R5 DEC L (145 lb Title Fight) vs. Germaine de Randamie
2016 R5 DEC L (135 lb) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
2016 R5 SUB L (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Miesha Tate
2015 R2 KO W (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Ronda Rousey
- - -
2014 R5 KO W (135 lb Pre-UFC) vs. Juliana Werner
Ketlen Vieira
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Continuing to alternate wins and losses over her last five fights, Vieira is fresh off a slower paced five-round decision win over Miesha Tate. Four of Vieira’s last five fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a 2019 R1 KO loss to Irene Aldana. She’s consistently been involved in close fights that generally come down to a single round to determine a winner.
In her recent win, Vieira unsurprisingly looked to keep the fight standing against a one-dimensional wrestler in Miesha Tate. Vieira’s only takedown attempt in the fight came in the first round and her corner immediately scolded her afterwards and told her to keep the fight standing. She heeded their advice from that point on and won a unanimous decision on the feet, while only allowing Tate to get her down once on six attempts in the fight. Tate actually finished ahead in significant strikes 122-113, but Vieira led in total strikes 156-145 and was clearly the one doing more damage with her strikes if you compared the faces of the two fighters following the match. Vieira was very patient with her striking and only threw four leg kicks in the fight, as she relied entirely on her boxing.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Vieira has two wins by KO, four by submission, and six decisions. Other than her 2019 R1 KO loss to Aldana, the only time she’s lost a fight was in a close 2021 decision against Yana Kunitskaya. Six of her eight UFC fights have gone the distance (5-1), with two of those wins being split. Vieira is a BJJ and Judo black belt and the only time she has finished anybody in the UFC was when she submitted Sara McMann late in the second round of a 2017 fight. Her second most recent finish was all the way back in 2015, prior to joining the UFC, but the first five wins of her career all did come early, and all in the first two rounds, albeit against opponents with a combined 1-1 pro record. She won her first 10 pro fights, including her first four in the UFC, but has since gone just 2-2 in her last four, although you could easily argue the decision loss to Yana Kunitskaya should have gone her way.
Overall, Vieira has the size, power, and grappling skills to be a real problem in the division, but has yet to really put it all together and look fully comfortable inside of the Octagon. She’s a former Brazilian national wrestling champion and Vieira loves to look for leg locks from defensive positions and arm-triangles from top position. She’s landed 13 takedowns on 28 attempts (46%) so far in the UFC, and while she only attempted one takedown in her last fights, she shot for a combined 13 in her previous two bouts. Looking at her defensive grappling, she has a 90% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice on 20 attempts in her eight UFC fights and only once in her last five matches.
This will just be the second five-round fight of Vieira’s career, but she is coming off a five-round decision win over Miesha Tate. That fight was slower paced and lacked almost any wrestling, so we still can’t be entirely confident that Vieira has the cardio to go five hard rounds in a more grueling match, but it was encouraging.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8”, but Holm will have a 1” reach advantage. However, Vieira is 10 years younger than the 40-year-old Holm.
Despite the fact that Holm shot for 14 takedowns in her last fight, while Vieira attempted just one in her most recent fight, we fully expect Vieira to be the one looking to get this fight to the ground. While Holm is a former professional boxer, she’s just a BJJ blue belt, and it would be foolish for her to look to engage with the BJJ and Judo black belt in Vieira on the mat. Conversely, while Vieira has decent power in her hands, she’s unlikely to win a striking battle against Holm, and will undoubtedly fare better on the mat. The outcome of this fight will likely hinge on whether or not Vieira is able to take Holm down and control her for periods of time. If it stays standing, Holm should be able to pick Vieira apart and either outland her way to a decision win or land a knockout. Vieira has good power, but leaves her chin exposed and runs the risk of getting knocked out against high level strikers, which she hasn’t faced many of. If Vieira can take Holm down then she has the potential to land a submission or more likely grapple her way to a decision win. Seven of Holm’s 12 UFC opponents have tried to take her down, three have been successful, and two of those went on to defeat her. However, the only time Holm has ever been submitted came in the fifth round of a 2016 fight, and Vieira hasn’t proven herself to be an especially dangerous finisher with just one early win in eight UFC appearances, which came in 2017. The fact that Holm hasn’t fought in 19 months and is now 40 years old certainly adds some uncertainty into the mix, but we still expect her to win as long as she can stay off her back, most likely in a lower-volume decision, but with a slight chance she lands another head kick KO in the middle rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Holm Decision” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Holm hasn’t fought in 19 months since putting on a career performance against Irene Aldana, where Holm scored 133 DraftKings points. In that fight, Holm doubled her previous career high in significant strikes landed in a UFC fight (154), while also landing five takedowns, which was just one takedown shy of matching the total number she landed in her first 11 UFC fights combined. However, since then she’s had to deal with a kidney issue and a knee injury and is now 40 years old. Holm is now 3-5 in UFC five-round fights and just 1-3 in five-round decisions. In those three five-round decision losses, she scored just 25, 55, and 29 DraftKings points, so it was surprising to see her explode for 133 points in her last win. It would be even more surprising to see her do that again, as now she’ll face a BJJ and Judo black belt with a 90% takedown defense, so she should be less inclined to look for takedowns. Ketlen Vieira also doesn’t push nearly as high a pace as Holm’s last opponent, Irene Aldana, so we should see a lower striking total. Holm is primarily a counter puncher, which worked perfectly against Aldana who chased her around the Octagon, but look for Vieira to come in with a more measured approach. With a lower striking total and the potential to land no takedowns, Holm will likely be dependent on landing a knockout to return value at her expensive price tag, and the last time she landed one of those was in 2017, with her last three wins all ending in decisions. It will be interesting to see where her ownership ends up after she was just 24% owned at $8,400 on DraftKings on another 11-fight card the last time she fought. The odds imply she has a 68% chance to win, a 21% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Vieira is coming off the first five-round fight of her career, where she won a decision over one-dimensional wrestler Miesha Tate. Vieira’s corner specifically told her after the first round to keep the fight standing due to Miesha Tate’s lack of striking ability. Vieira listened to her team and didn’t attempt another takedown after the first round, which is unusual for her considering she is a BJJ and Judo black belt and former Brazilian national wrestling champion. However, it also shows her willingness to adapt to her opponent. Now she’ll face a boxer/kickboxer in Holly Holm, so look for Vieira to return to her wrestling roots. Vieira landed five takedowns on 13 attempts in her two fights prior to her last one and she’s typically looking to get fights to the mat. Working against her, Holm has a 76% takedown defense and has only been taken down once in her last seven fights, although she’s only faced four attempts during that stretch. Vieira will have a tough time outlanding Holm, so she’ll either need a finish or to win multiple rounds on the mat to win this fight. Both of those are possible, although Vieira has only landed one finish in the UFC and that was almost five years ago back in 2017. She’ll more likely need a grappling-heavy performance to win a decision, which would inherently score better on DraftKings than FanDuel. Vieira has failed to top 89 DraftKings points in any of her six UFC wins, but if she pulls off the upset here she’ll likely end up in winning DraftKings lineups, even in a decision, at her cheap price tag. However, she’ll have a tougher time getting there on FanDuel without a finish. The odds imply she has a 32% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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- Michel Pereira OVER 14.75 Min
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