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Fighter Notes:
Fight #13
Ailin Perez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Perez will be moving back down to 135 lb after losing her September 2022 UFC debut at 145 lb against Stephanie Egger, who in fairness is also a career 135er but stepped into that matchup on 10 days’ notice after Zarah Fairn dropped out. Following that loss, Perez had been scheduled to fight Hailey Cowan back in February, but Cowan dropped out during weigh-ins, after Perez had already weighed in at 135 lb. So Perez has already successfully made the cut back down to 135 lb once since her debut. Despite Egger being a dangerous Judo black belt with a history of finishing opponents on the mat, Perez immediately looked to take her down, but ultimately ended up in bottom position, which ended up being the theme of the match. Egger was eventually able to make Perez pay on the ground as she locked up a rear-naked choke in the closing seconds of the second round. That was the first legitimate opponent Perez had ever faced, and her pre-UFC career was basically her bullying low-level opponents with ground and pound. Her last five and seven of her last eight fights have ended early, as she rarely requires the judges.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Perez has four wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two decisions. All five of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with three of those ending in round one. The first finish of her career ended in a submission, but the last four have all come by KO/TKO. Just keep in mind, she’s been facing dubious competition throughout her career and only one of her seven wins came against an opponent with a winning record. Two of her last three wins were against opponents with zero combined professional wins. Other than the submission loss in her UFC debut, her only other defeat came by DQ for illegal knees in a 2021 warehouse fight against Tamires Vidal. Perez made her pro debut at 125 lb in 2018, before moving up to 135 lb for her next two fights. She then took a fight up at 145 lb in her fourth pro match, which she won by decision, before dropping back down to 135 lb for her most recent four matches. She then moved back up to 145 lb for her UFC debut, but will not be returning to 135 lb.
Overall, Perez has shown the ability to exert heavy top pressure and rain down ground and pound against low-level opponents, but has yet to defeat any legitimate competition. She’s definitely not the brightest and we’ve seen her make several terrible decisions in the past, while she also doesn’t have a very diverse skill set. However, when given the right matchup she’s shown the ability to bully opponents on the ground and typically end fights early. Whether or not that will be an effective strategy at the UFC level remains to be seen, but this looks like a great bounce back opportunity in a low-level matchup that she typically thrives in. She doesn't appear to offer much in terms of submissions and she’s just a BJJ blue belt, with ground and pound being more of her forte.
Ashlee Evans-Smith
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Who even knew Ashlee Evans-Smith was still on the UFC roster after nearly three years removed from her last fight and just 1-4 in her last five outings? The last time we saw her she was getting dominated by Norma Dumont in a 135 lb November 2020 unanimous 30-26 decision loss. Just before that, Evans-Smith lost a unanimous 30-24 decision to Andrea Lee at 125 lb. The last time Evans-Smith won a single round on any judge’s score card was in a 2018 decision win over Bec Rawlings, who was in the midst of a five fight skid and got cut from the UFC following the loss. Evans-Smith has gone the distance in her last three and four of her last five fights, but has also been submitted in the first round in two of her UFC losses. She said that in her time away she had spine surgery and that lots of people close to her didn’t even want her to continue fighting.
Now 6-5 as a pro, Evans-Smith has three wins by TKO (all in R3), and three decision wins. She’s been submitted twice (both times in R1), and has three decision losses. Nine of her 11 pro fights have made it to the third round, with six going the distance. After starting her career off at 145 lb, Evans-Smith dropped down to 135 lb when she joined the UFC. However, after going 2-3 at 135 lb she decided to drop down further in 2018 to Flyweight (125 lb). She went 1-1 at Flyweight in her next two fights, before moving back up to 135 lb for her last fight, where she’ll stay here.
Overall, Evans-Smith is a 36-year-old low-level fighter who hasn’t fought in the last 959 days. She has a wrestling background and is #big but hasn’t done much to impress us. She’s very lumbering with her movements, lacks much power in her striking, is coming off spine surgery, and is busy doing lots of other things outside of fighting. Maybe she’s just making her return to promote her podcast, who knows. In her eight UFC fights, she’s landed 7 of her 30 takedown attempts (23.3% accuracy), and has never landed more than two takedowns in a fight. On the other side of things, her opponents have gotten her down on 5 of their 15 attempts (66.7% defense). Her last three opponents all landed 88 or more significant strikes against her and she seems very hittable, averaging 4.69 SSA/min in her career and 6.51 SSA/min in her last three fights.
Fight Prediction:
Evans-Smith will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Perez is eight years younger than the 36-year-old Evans-Smith.
Evans-Smith comes in with more red flags than a Soviet parade, as she hasn’t fought in 32 months, is coming off spine surgery, has lost two straight and four of her last five, is 36 years old, and has several endeavors outside of fighting that she’s involved in. She looked terrible in her last fight and it’s been 5+ years since she won a round, let alone a fight. While she has a wrestling background that could come in handy here, Perez looks like the stronger and more aggressive fighter, and we still expect her to bully the taller Evans-Smith, who hasn’t looked good at all off her back. Evans-Smith has not handled pressure well and we expect her to wilt on her back as Perez rains down ground and pound and finds a TKO finish in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Ailin Perez R1 or R2 KO” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Perez is coming off a second round submission loss in her UFC debut against Stephanie Egger, in what was a terrible matchup for her as Egger was able to completely neutralize everything Perez wanted to do on the mat. However, Perez will now be dropping back down to 135 lb and gets a more favorable matchup in her second UFC fight as she takes on a struggling 36-year-old opponent who’s coming off spine surgery and hasn’t fought in almost three years. We like Perez’s chances of getting this fight to the mat where she can rain down ground and pound from top position and likely land a finish. If she’s successful in achieving that, she should put up a big score on both sites, although her floor is safer on DraftKings if this goes the distance. Because she’s coming off a loss in her debut and is somewhat expensively priced, we expect her ownership to remain under control, despite the big line move in her favor. The odds imply she has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Evans-Smith has only once topped 83 DraftKings points, which was in her lone early win in the UFC when she landed a third round TKO against Veronica Hardy in 2016 and scored 103 points. Her two UFC decision victories were good for just 59 and 83 points and it’s been over five years since she won a fight. She’s now coming off a really long layoff after having spine surgery and is 36 years old, none of which is encouraging for her outlook. She has two things going for her here. She’ll be low owned and this is a low-level WMMA fight that automatically comes with a higher level of volatility. It’s not like Perez has proven anything in the UFC and if Evans-Smith can look better than expected maybe she can out wrestle her way to victory. She wouldn’t have to put up a huge score to serve as a value play at her cheap price tag on DraftKings, but we’re less excited about her on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 34% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #12
Alexander Munoz
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)It’s been 27 months since Munoz last fought after he tore his ACL for the second time and then dealt with complications following surgery. He lost a split decision to Luis Pena in his last fight, where Munoz landed 4 of his 9 takedown attempts, but only finished with 2:21 in control time and Pena led in significant strikes 90-80. Prior to that, Munoz lost a decision in his UFC debut against Nasrat Haqparast, and the last time Munoz won a fight was in a 2019 decision win. Munoz originally tried to crack the UFC roster through DWCS back in 2018, but despite winning a wrestling-heavy decision against an opponent who was born with only a partial left arm, Munoz was not awarded a contract and had to fight once more on the regional scene before getting the call up in 2020.
Now 6-2 as a pro, Munoz has two KO/TKO wins, one submission, and three decision victories. His three finishes all ended in the first round, but those also all came against a lower level of competition in his first three pro fights in 2015 and 2016. His last five fights all went the distance, with two of those decisions being split.
Overall, Munoz is a wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male, but he’s also been working on improving his striking and recently claimed that he’s now, "Just as comfortable standing as wrestling." He said he put on a lot of muscle during his time away and got all the way up to 205 lb, so it will be interesting to see how different he looks on the scale on Friday. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Munoz landed 9 of his 23 takedown attempts (39.1% accuracy), while no one attempted to take him down. Both of his UFC opponents landed 90 or more significant strikes against him, and he averages 5.49 SSA/min, the second most on the slate.
Carl Deaton
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Deaton basically got shut out of his recent short notice UFC debut, as he landed just a single significant strike while getting taken down twice and controlled for eight minutes and 51 seconds in a fight that only lasted nine minutes and 55 seconds. Deaton spent the entire fight defending rear-naked choke attempts, and while he was narrowly able to survive the first round, he got choked unconscious late in round two. Prior to making his debut, Deaton landed a second round submission of his own on the Michigan regional scene, after fighting to three straight decisions (1-2). His only win in those three decisions came against former UFC fighter Justin Jaynes and we saw Deaton get absolutely dominated on the mat in one of those decision losses, where he got taken down 10 times over three rounds and controlled for 9+ minutes.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Deaton has three wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out once (R1 2013), submitted twice (R2 2014 & R2 2023), and has three decision losses. His last five and 9 of his last 10 fights have made it out of the first round, with seven of those going the distance. Deaton started his career all the way down at 135 lb and went back and forth between 135 lb and 145 lb until 2019 when he ballooned up to 160 lb for a pair of Catchweight fights. He was able to get back down to 145 lb for one fight in 2021, but then moved back up to 155 lb in 2022, where he’s stayed since. Despite moving up, he’s still missed weight at 155 lb at multiple points and is always a guy to monitor closely on the scale.
Overall, Deaton is a low-level fighter who will mix in takedowns and is a BJJ purple belt, but hasn’t looked very impressive on the mat and struggles with being controlled on the ground. He doesn’t throw a ton of striking volume, or have especially impressive power, and nothing really stands out with him. He has a decision loss to a terrible Vince Murdock, who lost on both DWCS and TUF and is now competing at 135 lb. It looks like Deaton was simply in the right place at the right time to step in on short notice for his last fight, and now he gets to ride out that initial deal before he inevitably gets cut.
Fight Prediction:
Munoz will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Munoz comes in with a wrestling background and Deaton has struggled with being taken down and controlled on the mat, so it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this is a great stylistic matchup for Munoz. However, it has been over two years since he last fought and he’s coming off his second ACL surgery, so you never know how he’s going to look out there. While he wasn’t terrible in his first two UFC fights, he did lose both of those and struggled to control his opponents on the mat when he landed takedowns. He also hasn’t looked like much of a finishing threat and there’s a good chance this one goes the distance. We’re interested to see the striking improvements that Munoz claims to have made, and also how much ring rust he has to shake off after his extended absence. That leaves some volatility here and we really don’t know exactly how he’ll look. With that said, Deaton has done nothing to prove he belongs in the UFC and looks like a blown up 145er competing at 155. That’s enough for us to back Munoz here and we’ll say he wins by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Munoz DEC” at +120.
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DFS Implications:
Munoz has lost a pair of decisions in his two UFC fights and is now coming off a 27 month layoff and his second ACL surgery. He hasn’t finished anybody since 2016 or looked like much of a finishing threat, with his last five fights all going the distance. So while this looks like a great matchup for him to find wrestling success, he’s less likely to find a finish. That makes him a more interesting play on DraftKings where he could potentially still score well in a wrestling-heavy decision. He’s also somewhat mispriced on DraftKings after the line moved in his favor throughout the week, which will drive his ownership up. That makes him a solid low-risk play, but lowers his tournament appeal somewhat. The odds imply Munoz has a 64% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Deaton has done nothing to impress us on tape and has really struggled with being taken down and controlled at times. That’s definitely not ideal as he takes on a wrestler here and Deaton is undersized at 155 lb, after spending most of his career at 135 lb and 145 lb. He showed some ability to defend submissions in his UFC debut, but still ultimately got choked unconscious late in the second round. He’s given us no indication that he belongs in the UFC, but he will be really low owned and is facing an opponent who is coming off his second ACL surgery and hasn’t fought in over two years. So there’s always a chance Munoz comes out and looks terrible or suffers an in-fight setback to his knee. Deaton is basically a bet on chaos and anything can happen in a cage fight. The odds imply Deaton has a 36% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #11
Azat Maksum
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut with an undefeated record, Maksum has spent almost his entire career fighting in his home country of Kazakhstan, although it looks like he’s been doing some training with Justin Gaethje out in Colorado at Elevation Fight Team in preparation for this fight. Five of his last six wins have come early, with his last two finishes both ending in first round submissions.
Now 16-0 as a pro, Maksum has five wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and four decision victories. Eleven of his 12 finishes have come in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and five in round two. His last two and four of his last six finishes have come by submission, but he did land a pair of knockouts in 2021 in his two fights with the Brave Combat Federation.
Overall, Maksum is a well-rounded fighter but has mostly been relying on his grappling lately. While he struggled some with his takedown accuracy earlier in his career, he’s shown major improvements in that area and landed five takedowns in the opening minute of his last fight, before finding a submission late in the round. He’s a patient striker, who won’t put up big striking totals, but has sneaky power. It looks like this will just be his second fight outside of Kazakhstan and he’s still only 28 years old, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of making his UFC debut.
Tyson Nam
8th UFC Fight (3-4)Quickly approaching his 40th birthday, Nam is four months removed from the first submission loss of his career and only has one win since late 2020. In his recent loss to Bruno Silva, we saw a slower paced first round before Nam got dropped with a front kick to the chin early in round two. Silva then took Nam’s back as he tried to return to his feet and quickly choked him unconscious. Prior to that, Nam landed a first round knockout against Ode Osbourne in August 2022, following a 19 month layoff resulting from ACL surgery. Before the knee injury, Nam lost a split decision to Matt Schnell, after knocking out a pair of low-level opponents in Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev. Both of those fights took place at 135 lb, while the rest of Nam’s UFC career has been at 125 lb. He started out 0-2 with the organization with a pair of decision losses to Kai Kara-France and Sergio Pettis. All three of Nam’s UFC wins have ended in knockouts in under six minutes, and while he’s gone 2-0 at 135 lb in the UFC, he’s just 1-4 at 125 lb.
Now 21-13 -1 as a pro, Nam has 13 wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and seven decision victories. He’s been knocked out in the first round three times, although those all occurred much earlier in his career (2006, 2008 & 2013) and all up at 135 lb. He’s also been submitted once and has nine decision losses. Nam has bounced back and forth between 125 lb and 135 lb throughout his career, but five of his seven UFC fights have been at 125 lb. He only has one UFC win at 125, but insists on staying at the weight class.
Overall, Nam is a pure striker, and we’ve yet to see a takedown landed by anyone in any of his seven UFC fights. However, the only two fighters who tried to take him down were Bruna Silva, who failed on his only attempt, and Kai Kara-France, who went 0 for 4. Kara-France is also the only opponent Nam tried to take down, also failing on all four of his attempts. Nam relies mostly on his power and doesn’t throw much volume, averaging just 3.49 SSL/min and he’s only finished ahead in striking in one of his seven UFC matches. That makes it really tough for him to ever win a decision and looks entirely reliant on landing knockouts to win fights at this level. He turns 40 in October and it’s rare to see Flyweights that old find much success.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7”, but Maksum will have a 2” reach advantage and is 11 years younger than the 39-year-old Nam.
While Nam’s 100% takedown defense looks good on paper, only two fighters have tried to take him down and we really haven’t seen his defensive wrestling tested much. The one time we saw him involved in any grappling exchanges was after he got dropped in his last fight and he almost immediately gave up his back and got choked unconscious. That’s not very encouraging for his chances here as he takes on an undefeated prospect with seven submission wins, who should be looking to grapple early and often. You don’t see many Flyweights pushing 40 in the UFC and Nam’s days are likely numbered with the organization. Two of his three UFC wins came up at 135 lb against terrible opponents and he’s just 1-4 at 125 lb in the UFC. Maksum has the ability to knock Nam out, but a submission is more likely, and we like Maksum to finish Nam in the first two rounds.
Our favorite bet here is “Azat Maksum SUB” at +280.
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DFS Implications:
Maksum looks like an interesting prospect as he comes into the UFC with a perfect 16-0 pro record, that includes 12 finishes. While he has decent striking, he’s generally looking to grapple, which gives him a safer floor on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. However, his history of landing finishes presents a solid ceiling on both sites. While Nam’s 100% takedown defense may seem imposing on paper, he’s only had to defend five takedowns in the UFC and four of those were against Kai Kara-France, who’s not much of a grappler. We finally saw Nam have to work on the mat in his last fight and he quickly gave up his back and got choked unconscious by Bruno Silva, who hadn’t submitted anybody since 2014 coming into that fight. There’s no reason to think Maksum can’t find similar success and two of his last three wins have ended in first round submissions. He’s put up big takedown numbers in each of his last two fights and has shown the ability to chain wrestle and land takedowns in bunches. That creates the potential for him to put up a huge score here. The only thing he’ll need to be wary of is the power coming back his way, as all three of Nam’s UFC wins have ended in knockouts. As long as Maksum doesn't get knocked out, he should cruise to a victory, with both a solid scoring floor and ceiling, and going off Nam’s KO line, there’s only about a 12% chance he knocks Maksum out. The odds imply Maksum has a 76% chance to win, a 49% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Nam has been a KO or bust play throughout his UFC career, with all three of his UFC wins ending in knockouts. He’s now 39 years old, which is the Flyweight equivalent of being 75, and is coming off the first submission loss of his career. Two of Nam’s three UFC wins were up at 135 lb against terrible opponents, and he’s just 1-4 in the UFC at 125 lb. Now he’s facing an undefeated prospect who should be looking to take Nam down, which will limit Nam’s opportunities of landing the hail mary knockout he needs to score well. He adds nothing in terms of offensive grappling and only averages 3.49 SSL/min. Not that he’s ever won a decision in the UFC, but we don’t see him scoring well if he ever does, and he failed to top 23 DraftKings points in any of his three decision losses. Nam is ultimately a very binary play in DFS. If he lands a knockout, then he’ll be a near lock to end up in tournament winning lineups at his cheap price tag, but if he doesn’t he won’t. The odds imply Nam has a 24% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Evan Elder
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Still in search of his first UFC win, Elder was unfortunate to lose his last fight against Nazim Sadykhov. Elder won the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards, but then had a really bad cut opened up over his eye in round three and the doctor immediately stopped the fight. Prior to that, Elder lost a grappling-heavy decision in his short notice UFC debut against Preston Parsons that Elder took up a weight class on just four days’ notice. That was the first loss of Elder’s career, after he started out 7-9 on the Missouri regional scene.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Elder has four wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. His first four finishes all came in the first round, while his most recent was a third round TKO. He has one decision loss, and one TKO loss via doctor stoppage. Five of his last six fights have seen the third round, but three of his last four matches have ended in KO/TKOs.
Elder wasn’t going up against the toughest competition before he joined the UFC, and only two of his seven career wins came against opponents with winning records. His last win was against a 9-16 opponent. Elder made his 2018 pro debut at 170 lb and landed a first round knockout, but then immediately dropped down to 155 lb for his last six fights, before taking his UFC at 170 lb. He then dropped back down to 155 lb, where it appears he’ll stay.
Overall, Elder is a durable striker who will occasionally mix in takedowns, but is more often looking to keep fights standing. He’s only landed one of his eight takedown attempts in his two UFC fights (12.5% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on five of their seven attempts (28.6% defense). He’s been training at Kill Cliff FC, so he has a good team around him and is still just 26 years old and should constantly be improving. He looked much better in his last fight than he did in his debut, and we expect to see an even better version of him here, in what looks like a great matchup for him to showcase his talents.
Genaro Valdez
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)Also coming off a pair of losses in his first two UFC fights, Valdez went to the judges for the first time in his career in his recent loss to habitual decision grinder Natan Levy. Valdez got outlanded 67-49 in significant strikes, while also getting taken down six times and controlled for almost five minutes. Prior to that, Valdez suffered the first loss of his career in a wild R1 TKO in his UFC debut against Matt Frevola, who knocked Valdez down four times officially in a fight that only lasted 195 seconds. We also saw Valdez take part in a crazy brawl on DWCS just before that, where he landed an early R2 TKO against Alaskan fighter Patrik White, who’s the cousin/training partner of Carlton Minus.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Valdez has only seen the third round twice in his career, with just one of those requiring the judges. He has seven wins by KO/TKO and three submission victories, with six of his finishes coming in the first round, three ending in round two and one occurring in the opening two minutes of round three. He’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss, with both of those losses coming in the UFC. Valdez didn’t face much in the way of competition prior to joining the UFC, and it remains to be seen if his chaotic fighting style can be successful at the UFC level.
Overall, Valdez is a brawler who looks to finish all of his opponents early. He’s only been in two fights that lasted longer than seven minutes, although showed he could go 15 minutes in this last match. He trains at Entram Gym with fighters like Michael Morales, so he has a decent team around him and still has time to make improvements to his game, but he is already 31 years old and isn’t some super young prospect. He’s looked incredibly hittable and sloppy, but will push a crazy pace when he has a willing dance partner, which wasn’t the case in his last fight. While he hasn’t landed a takedown in the UFC on just a single attempt, on the regional scene he would often try to get fights to the mat to look for submissions and ground and pound. In his DWCS fight, he landed four of his eight takedown attempts, and between that fights and his two UFC matches, he’s landed 4 of his 9 takedown attempts (44.4% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 6 of their 10 attempts (40% defense). Valdez always makes for exciting fights, but we don’t see him finding much success against legitimate competition.
Fight Prediction:
Elder will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 72” reach. Elder is five years younger than the 31-year-old Valdez.
This sets up as a banger and should be a fun fight to watch. Both guys are willing to throw down, but Valdez is the more reckless fighter and has been very prone to getting dropped. Elder recently talked about how he needs a win by any means necessary, whether it comes in a knockout or by decision. He made it sound like he wouldn’t get overly aggressive looking for a finish, which is just something to keep in mind here. With that said, unless Valdez suddenly dials his aggression way back, he should force Elder into a firefight, which raises the chances that we see a knockout. You can’t question Valdez’s heart, but he absorbs a massive amount of damage and Elder has decent power. We fully expect Elder to hurt Valdez and likely drop him at some point early in this fight, it’s just a matter of how hard he’ll push for a finish at that point. According to him he won’t completely sell out looking for one, but if it’s there, look for him to take it. It’s been five months since Elder had that really nasty cut opened up over his eye that stopped his last fight. You would hope that it’s 100% healed, but based on the location there’s always a slight chance it could get reopened. That’s one of the few ways we see Valdez pulling off the upset, but it’s a very unlikely outcome. We like Elder to win by either knockout or decision, with a knockout being the most likely outcome.
Our favorite bet here is “Evan Elder DEC or KO” at -175.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Elder was extremely unfortunate not to win his last fight, as was anyone that bet his decision line, after he won the first two rounds on all three scorecards. A nasty cut over his eye in the third round resulted in the fight immediately being stopped, and dropped his UFC record to 0-2. His previous loss came in his short notice UFC debut, which took place up a weight class, so we’re just throwing those results out as he was set up to fail. Elder was on pace to put up a decent score even in a decision in his last fight before it was stopped, and now he’ll get an even more favorable matchup. However, at his expensive price tag in this fight, he’ll still probably need a finish to be useful, unless he can completely fill up the stat sheet, while also finding more success on the mat. Considering he’s lost both of his UFC fights, has yet to top 49 DraftKings points, and is now very expensively priced, we expect him to fly largely under the radar, despite this being a dream matchup. The odds imply Elder has a 71% chance to win, a 50% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
Valdez’s aggressive fighting style is perfect for DFS, although we’re typically more excited about playing his opponents than him. He got knocked down four times in less than four minutes in a R1 TKO loss in his UFC debut, and then got taken down six times in a decision loss in his last fight. There’s always a chance he could get a little less aggressive here as he gets more and more desperate for a win, but that remains to be seen. Based on how he’s fought his entire career up until this point, he just wants to go out there and bang. It looks like a tough matchup for him, although Elder is also winless in the UFC and just had his last fight stopped due to a nasty cut over his eye. Maybe Valdez can reopen that wound and force another early stoppage, but we don’t have much confidence in Valdez winning this fight. With that said, crazy things happen every week inside the Octagon and based on Valdez’s cheap price tag and brawling fighting style, if he does win, he should score well. The odds imply he has a 29% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Melquizael Costa
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Costa is moving down to 145 lb after getting submitted in the second round of his recent short notice UFC debut against a really tough Thiago Moises, who took Costa down four times and controlled him for five and a half minutes leading up to the finish. Prior to that loss, Costa landed a third round TKO win in the LFA and his last three wins all came early. While he’s only been to two decisions in his last six fights, five of those six matches made it out of the first round. He’s lost three of the last five decisions he’s been to, so he hasn’t fared especially well with the judges.
Now 19-6 as a pro, Costa has seven wins by KO/TKO, six submissions, and six decision victories. He has one TKO loss resulting from a 2017 post R1 doctor stoppage and has also been submitted twice (R3 2018 & R2 2023). His other three defeats all came via decision. He fought all the way down at 135 lb early in his career, and has gone back and forth between 145 lb and 155 lb since 2017. He’s moving back down to 145 lb here, after his last few fights were at 155 lb. He landed submissions in each of his last two 145 lb fights (R1 2019 & R2 2022).
Overall, Costa is a patient fighter who throws a lot of kicks, and he’s looked decent but unexceptional. He trains out of Chute Boxe in Brazil and is a BJJ brown belt and Muay Thai black belt. Costa’s takedown defense has looked poor, which has gotten him into trouble at multiple points in the past and he got taken down four times on seven attempts in his recent debut. It will be important to monitor Costa closely on the scale as he drops down to 145 lb here.
Austin Lingo
5th UFC Fight (2-2)Lingo has already exceeded expectations simply by making it to a second UFC contract. He’s coming off a second round submission loss to Nate Landwehr, which is the first time Lingo has ever been finished, but was able to win the first round in that fight. Prior to that loss, Lingo won a pair of decisions against Luis Saldana and Jacob Kilburn, after losing a decision to Youssef Zalal in his 2020 UFC debut. Lingo has only fought once since 2021 after he had three booked fights canceled leading up to his recent loss. Just two weeks before facing Landwehr, Lingo had been scheduled to fight Ricardo Ramos, but Ramos missed weight so badly the fight was canceled after Lingo had already made weight.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Lingo has three KO/TKO wins, two submissions, and four decision victories. All five of his early wins ended in the first round of fights in 2018 and 2019 against low-level opponents. He’s never been knocked out, while he’s coming off his first submission loss. His only other defeat was the decision in his UFC debut.
Overall, Lingo is an aggressive one-dimensional striker who pushes forward and relies mostly on his boxing to try and knock opponents out. He’s a black belt in Taekwondo, but just a BJJ purple belt and doesn’t offer much in the way of grappling. In his four UFC fights, he’s landed two takedowns on three attempts (66.7% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents 8 times on 37 attempts (78.4% defense). Just keep in mind, his takedown defense looks better on paper than it actually is, as a desperate Jacob Kilburn (5% career takedown accuracy) landed just one of his 18 attempts against Lingo. Youssef Zalal (31% career takedown accuracy), was able to take Lingo down six times as he landed 50% of his attempts against. Lingo then got taken down in his last fight and showed terrible defensive grappling and positional awareness as he immediately gave up his back trying to stand up and Landwehr immediately snatched up his neck and forced a tap.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10’ but Costa will have a 1” reach advantage.
Neither of these two have been overly impressive, but Costa is the more well-rounded fighter and if he’s smart he’ll be looking to attack Lingo’s glaring grappling deficiency. Costa likes to throw a lot of kicks, while Lingo has a more boxing heavy approach, so it would make sense for Costa to use his kicks to keep Lingo at bay and then look to grapple when Lingo is able to close the distance. With that said, Costa didn’t land a takedown in either of his last two fights, so it’s hard to trust that he’ll come in with a grappling-heavy approach here and we could just see these two duke it out on the feet. If that happens, there’s a good chance it goes the distance, as they only have one KO/TKO loss between them and that was due to a doctor stoppage back in 2017. So we like this to end in either a Costa submission win or a close decision, and keep in mind Costa has lost three of the last five decisions he’s been to, while Lingo is 4-1 in five career decisions. We still lean towards Costa winning by submission based on how bad Lingo’s ground game has looked.
Our favorite bet here is “Costa SUB” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Costa unsurprisingly struggled in his recent short notice UFC debut against Thiago Moises, but gets a much more favorable spot here against a low-level opponent. However, Costa hasn’t looked like any sort of world beater himself, so it remains to be seen if he can fully take advantage of this opportunity. Lingo has looked dreadful on the mat, and while Costa isn’t a great grappler himself, he is a BJJ brown belt with six submission wins on his record. So Costa is smart, he’ll look to get this fight to the ground, but it won’t be shocking if he forgoes the path of least resistance and keeps it standing. Lingo has never been knocked out, so it looks less likely that Costa will find a finish if the fight remains standing, although he’s shown the ability to land liver kicks that could definitely put Lingo down. The fact that Costa is dropping down to 145 lb adds some volatility to the matchup, and if his weight cut is a tough one it could affect his chin and/or cardio. Costa has also lost three of the last five decisions he’s been to and has yet to win a UFC fight, so overall it’s hard to completely trust him even in this favorable matchup. That just leaves him with a wider range of scoring outcomes and he’ll still have a solid ceiling if he comes in with a smart game plan. The odds imply Costa has a 66% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Lingo is more or less of a one dimensional striker, but he will occasionally mix in a takedown attempt and has landed two in his four UFC matches. While Lingo has five finishes on his record, all of those came on the regional scene against a lower level of competition and both of his UFC wins went the distance. Lingo was able to score 93 DraftKings points in one of those decisions, but that came in a dream matchup against a terrible Jacob Kilburn, and he only scored 72 points in his other decision win. Lingo has decent power, but doesn’t offer a ton of variety in his strikes and the potential for him to get taken down and controlled also limits his scoring potential. At his cheap price tag, there’s always a chance he could serve as a value play in a decision win, but we’re mainly treating him as a KO or bust option. Working in his favor, Costa is dropping down to 145 lb, which has the potential to impact his ability to take a punch if it’s a tough weight cut. Costa has competed at 145 lb in the past, so we’re not especially worried about the cut, but his last few fights have been at 155 lb. The odds imply Lingo has a 34% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Viktoriia Dudakova
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Eleven months removed from a wrestling-heavy decision win on DWCS, Dudakova comes into the UFC with a short but perfect 6-0 record, after turning pro in late 2020. She wasn’t especially impressive in her DWCS fight, but was able to land four takedowns with over 10 minutes of control time. It looked like she hurt her knee late in the second round of the fight as she took a really bad step, but afterwards she claimed that she came into the fight with that injury. Regardless of when the injury happened, she had ACL surgery a couple of weeks after the fight. That was Dudakova’s first trip to the judges after she finished her first five opponents.
Now 6-0 as a pro, Dudakova has one TKO win (R1 2021), four submission wins, and one decision victory. Three of her four submission wins occurred in the later rounds. Keep in mind, she had been facing really suspect competition before going on DWCS so all of her finishes should be taken with a grain of salt.
Overall, Dudakova is a 24-year-old Russian grappler, who’s still incredibly green in MMA after turning pro less than three years ago. While it’s been 11 months since she last fought and she should be making lots of improvements at this stage in her career, she spent a good chunk of that time off recovering from ACL surgery following her last fight. Dudakova’s background is actually in swimming opposed to martial arts, before she decided to take her career in a different direction. She looks like a complete fraud and we expect her to really struggle at the UFC level when she’s unable to get opposed down and lay on them from top position.
Istela Nunes
4th UFC Fight (0-3)Continuing to lose fights on the mat, Nunes is no3 0-3 in the UFC and fighting for her job here. She’s coming off a second round ground and pound TKO loss to Yazmin Jauregui, although Nunes was able to drop Jauregui in the first round of that fight. Aggressive striking in the first round of fights is Nunes’ strong suit, but she consistently fades in round two and wilts off her back. It’s been the same story in all three of her UFC matches. In her second most recent loss, Nunes lost a decision to Sam Hughes, where Nunes outlanded Hughes 40-15 in strikes in the first round, but faded in the back half of the fight. Hughes was able to take Nunes down late in round two and then again in round three to secure the decision win. Nunes was also deducted a point for an eye poke, but Hughes finished ahead 29-27 on two of the scorecards so the point didn’t actually play a factor. Prior to that, Nunes got submitted in the third round of her UFC debut against Ariane Carnelossi, who’s known for her striking and not her grappling. Nunes’s only win in her last five fights was a 2018 decision, after she got submitted again just before that. So she’s just 1-4 in her last five fights and hasn’t won a match since 2018. The last time she finished anybody was in a 2016 R3 KO, with her only other early win coming in a R1 KO in her 2015 pro debut. She had originally been scheduled to make her UFC debut in 2019, but tested positive for steroids and was suspended for two years. She’s yet to win a fight since returning from that suspension.
Now 6-4 as a pro, Nunes has two wins by KO (2015 and 2016) and four decision victories. She has one TKO loss, two submission losses, and one decision defeat. All three of those early losses occurred in the later rounds of her last five fights, with two ending in round two and one in round three. Nunes has spent almost her entire career at 115 lb, but did move up to 125 lb for one fight in 2018.
Overall, Nunes is a two time Muay Thai world champion and a really dangerous striker, but lacks any sort of grappling skills and has terrible cardio. She’s probably one of the worst fighters in the UFC when it comes to fighting off her back and it’s amazing that she hasn’t made any improvements in that area. In her three UFC fights, Nunes has been taken down 7 times on 15 attempts (53.3% defense), while failing to attempt any takedowns of her own. She’s been finished on the ground in two of her three UFC losses and needs to keep fights standing at all costs to have a chance to win. The UFC isn’t taking any mercy on her as they match her up against a one-dimensional grappler in Nunes’ last chance to save her job.
Fight Prediction:
Dudakova will have a 1” height and reach advantage, while Nunes is six years older than the 24-year-old Dudakova.
Both of these two are incredibly one-dimensional and have completely opposite skillsets. Nunes might be the worst grappler to ever grace the Octagon, while Dudakova has shown no striking game whatsoever. The fight will entirely come down to whether or not Dudakova is able to get it to the ground. If she can’t land an early takedown, Nunes will carve her up on the feet and likely land an early knockout. However, if Dudakova can take Nunes then she should be able to easily control her on the mat and will have a decent shot at locking up a submission, even though we haven’t been that impressed by Dudakova’s submission skills. It also wouldn’t be shocking to just see Dudakova just lay on Nunes and wait out a decision. With such massive gaping holes on both sides of this fight, it’s a volatile matchup that could go either way. It’s one of those fights where whoever you pick you may immediately regret 30 seconds into the first round. While we’re really tempted to take the dog shot here, this looks like a terrible stylistic matchup for Nunes and there’s a really good chance she spends most of the fight looking helpless on her back. So while we do think she’ll be live to land an early knockout, Dudakova will still be the official pick to win either by late submission or in a wrestling-heavy decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Istela Nunes R1 or R2 KO” at +900.
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DFS Implications:
Dudakova’s wrestling-heavy approach to fighting will generally score better on DraftKings than FanDuel, but she has landed finishes in five of her six pro wins. Just keep in mind, all of those early wins came against low-level opponents and she makes her UFC debut with an undefeated, but likely fraudulent record. With that said, she couldn’t ask for a better matchup to find wrestling success here and Nunes has been terrible off her back, getting finished on the mat in two of her three UFC fights and losing a decision on the mat in her other one. While Dudakova should find success if she can get the fight to the mat, she looks like a real liability on the feet and Nunes is a very dangerous striker. That will leave Dudakova at risk of getting knocked out anytime this fight is on the feet, and it will be essential that she quickly gets Nunes to the mat. We’ve seen Nunes fade late in fights, so if Dudakova can simply survive the opening round and a half she should be in a good position to either find a late finish on the ground, most likely by submission, or grind out a grappling-heavy decision win. Both of those have the potential to score decently on DraftKings, but she’ll be reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. The odds imply Dudakova has a 63% chance to win, a 36% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.
Nunes is a really solid striker but an absolutely terrible grappler and also has bad cardio. She’s lost all three of her UFC fights on the mat, with two of those losses ending early. We’ve seen her start strong in fights, only to wilt midway through round two, which seemingly leaves her more dependent on landing a knockout in the opening round and a half. It’s not impossible that she could do enough in the first 7-8 minutes to win a decision even if she fades down the stretch, but she would have a tougher time scoring very well in that scenario. Dudakova will also be looking to control Nunes along the fence and take her down, which will also limit Nunes’ ability to put up a big striking total. So while it’s not impossible she could serve as a value play in a decision win at her cheap price tag, it’s safer to consider her an early KO or bust option. Because Dudakova is making her UFC debut following ACL surgery and is still so green, this looks like a pretty volatile spot, which adds to Nunes’ tournament appeal. Just keep in mind she’s a boom or bust option and could very well get controlled on the mat for the entire fight if she can’t keep the fight in space. Sitting at 0-3 on the UFC, this should be Nunes’ final fight in her deal and last chance to save her job. The odds imply Nunes has a 37% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Melsik Baghdasaryan
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, Baghdasaryan got submitted in the second round by Joshua Culibao, who had previously never submitted anyone in his career. Baghdasaryan won the first round in that fight, but as soon as Culibao was able to take his back in round two he locked up a rear-naked choke and finished the fight. Prior to that, Baghdasaryan had withdrawn from his previous two scheduled matchups and it had been 15 months since he last competed. He landed an impressive R2 knockout in his UFC debut, before fighting to a frustrating decision against an opponent who refused to engage in his next match. Baghdasaryan also won a decision on DWCS in September 2020. Before going on DWCS, Baghdasaryan had finished his previous four opponents in a combined 62 seconds with ridiculous fight times of 14, 32, 9 and 7 seconds. We’ve seen him dial back his aggression some in recent fights, presumably in an effort to preserve his cardio, whereas he used to always come in selling out for that immediate knockout.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Baghdasaryan has five wins by KO/TKO and two decision victories. The first four knockouts of his career all came in 32 seconds or less, while the most recent ended midway through round two. Both of his career losses ended in submissions, with one of those taking place in the first round of his 2014 pro debut and the other in the second round of his last fight. Following that first loss, Baghdasaryan switched to boxing and kickboxing from 2015 to 2018. However, following a 2018 kickboxing decision loss in a KJP Championship fight, Baghdasaryan decided to return to MMA in 2019 and proceeded to rattle off four straight lightning fast first round finishes over a six month span before being invited onto DWCS a year later.
Overall, Baghdasaryan is an ultra-aggressive southpaw kickboxer, who doesn’t add anything in terms of grappling and tends to slow down later in fights. He looks extremely dangerous early on, but that explosiveness comes at a price and he only has a round or a round and half of hard fighting in him. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Baghdasaryan has been taken down by his opponents on 3 of their 13 attempts (76.9% defense), while he failed to land either of his own two attempts, both of which came on DWCS. Baghdasaryan routinely gets warned for his extended fingers, so it’s probably just a matter of time before he accidentally pokes an opponent in the eye and has a point deducted or even worse, has a fight stopped. Between his fast starts, slow finishes, and eventual eye pokes, we wouldn’t be shocked to see a draw end up on his record at some point.
Tucker Lutz
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Likely fighting for his job here after losing two straight and sitting at 1-2 in the UFC, Lutz recently got submitted in the second round by Daniel Pineda. Despite Pineda being a dangerous grappler, Lutz attempted four takedowns in that fight, although was unable to land any of them and it was Pineda that ultimately found success on the mat. That March 2023 loss is Lutz’s only fight since he lost a lopsided decision to Pat Sabatini in November 2021. Lutz had fought to four straight decisions before getting submitted in his last fight and the last time he finished anybody was in a 2019 R2 TKO against a 2-2 opponent. Lutz’s only UFC win came in a decision in his UFC debut against a washed up Kevin Aguilar. Lutz finished ahead in striking in that fight and tacked on a few takedowns, but he kind of limped to the finish line and it wasn’t the most impressive win. Prior to that, Lutz won a pair of decisions on DWCS to punch his ticket to the big show. Both of those DWCS matches were at 155 lb, but all three of Lutz’s UFC fights have been down at 145 lb.
Now 12-3 as a pro, Lutz has six wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and four decision victories. Both of his submission wins came by R1 guillotines in his first five pro fights and all six of his knockout wins occurred in his first 10 pro fights when he was facing a lower level of competition. He’s been submitted once and knocked out, with both of those early losses coming in the later rounds. His lone TKO loss came in the third round of his 2015 pro debut. He also has one decision on his record. Prior to losing his last two fights, he had won 12 straight. However, you have to question the level of competition he had been facing prior to joining the UFC, and only two of his eight finishes came against opponents with winning records and he had been fighting exclusively on the unheralded Maryland regional scene. Lutz started his pro career at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb in 2018. He said after his second DWCS appearance that his future would be 145 lb but he had been dealing with a nagging chest cartilage injury that he needed to take care of first. He lived up to his word and all of his UFC fights have been at 145 lb, where this next one will also be.
Overall, Lutz has a background in kickboxing and is also a BJJ purple belt and wrestled some when he was younger. It seems like a lot of people are higher on Lutz than we are and he consistently gets the betting action in his favor, but hasn’t done much to impress us in his career. He does a decent job of blending his striking and grappling, but hasn’t stood out anywhere and has never finished any legitimate competition. Between his three UFC fights and his two DWCS appearances, he’s landed 8 of his 16 takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while getting taken down by his opponents on 8 of 26 attempts (69.2% defense). It would be surprising if Lutz remained on the roster if he suffers his third straight loss here.
Fight Prediction:
Baghdasaryan will have a 1” height advantage, but Lutz will have a 2” reach advantage.
Baghdasaryan comes into every fight looking for an early knockout, but he’s very one-dimensional and also has a limited gas tank when he’s pushed. He has no ground game to speak of and anyone with a brain should be looking to take him down and wear on him. Considering Lutz was trying to land takedowns against a dangerous submission threat and BJJ black belt in Daniel Pineda in his last fight, it would be mind-numbingly idiotic if he didn’t also come in looking to land takedowns in this fight. Whether or not he lands them is a different story and his grappling is sort of meh. However, even if he can just push Baghdasaryan up against the cage and negate his knockout power for the first half of the fight, things should get easier for Lutz the longer the fight goes as Baghdasaryan begins to slow down. Baghdasaryan is always live to land an early knockout, but we actually like Lutz to grind out a boring decision win here to save his job.
Our favorite bet here is “Lutz DEC” at +330.
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DFS Implications:
Baghdasaryan is a one-dimensional kickboxer who relies on landing early knockouts to score well in DFS. In his one UFC decision win, he scored just 61 DraftKings points, and even in his second round knockout he scored “just” 101 points. At his high price tag, a similar score here likely wouldn’t be enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups, which appears to leave him more reliant on landing a knockout in the first round or multiple knockdowns with a later finish. The only time Lutz has ever been knocked out was in the third round of his pro debut and now he’s fighting for his job and could come in with a more conservative, grappling-heavy gameplan. So it doesn't look like a great matchup for Baghdasaryan to showcase his striking and find the quick knockout he needs to return value, but he’s dangerous enough that you’ll be holding your breath for the first round if you fade him—especially for the first 60 seconds as he has four knockout wins in 32 seconds or less. The odds imply Baghdasaryan has a 59% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Lutz’s decision win in his UFC debut was good for a respectable 93 DraftKings points as he landed a decent number of significant strikes and tacked on three takedowns, but since then he’s dropped two straight and now appears to be fighting for his job. While this is a dangerous matchup for him where he could get knocked out early, there’s also a good chance he can find some grappling success and control Baghdasaryan on the mat. That bodes well for Lutz’s scoring potential on DraftKings, and at his cheap price tag he’s squarely in the value play discussion. However, we’re less excited about his outlook on FanDuel, where he’ll be more reliant on landing a finish to score well. Per usual, the line has moved heavily in Lutz’s favor throughout the week, as the field has always been strangely obsessed with this guy. Lutz was hilariously 44% owned on DraftKings in a terrible spot against Pat Sabatini and then 37% owned in his last fight, taking a large chunk of the field down in both of those matches. It will be interesting to see how popular Lutz is now, after burning the field in each of his last two fights. He hasn’t finished anybody since 2019, when he was taking on low level opponents on the Maryland regional scene, so he’s yet to show any true upside at the UFC level. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Nazim Sadykhov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Sadykhov is coming off a very fortunate R3 TKO win over Evan Elder, where Sadykhov lost the first two rounds on all three score cards. Luckily for him, he opened up a bad cut above Elder’s eye in the third round and the doctor did not allow the fight to go on, resulting in a stoppage victory for Sadykhov. Elder finished the fight ahead in striking and also knocked Sadykhov down in the first round, while each fighter landed a takedown. That was Sadykhov’s eighth straight win since he got submitted in the first round of his 2018 pro debut. Seven of those eight wins ended early, and interesting, four of his last five finishes came in the third round. Just before making his UFC debut, he landed a third round knockout on DWCS and his last four finishes all came by KO/TKO.
Now 8-1 as a pro, Sadykhov has six wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and one decision victory. Three of his finishes came in round one, with the other four ending in round three. The only loss of his career was a first round submission in his 2018 pro debut. Sadykhov didn’t face much in the way of competition before he joined the UFC, and his first six pro opponents had six combined pro wins between them.
Overall, Sadykhov looks decently well rounded, but also not overly impressive. He’s got some power in his striking and decent wrestling, but he’s not the quickest and he looked a step behind in a lot of the striking exchanges in his recent debut. His takedown defense has looked pretty solid, and between his DWCS fight and his UFC debut he was only taken down by his opponents on 3 of their 15 attempts (80% defense). He also landed his only takedown attempt in those two fights. Sadykhov said he started training karate as a kid before moving onto Combat Sambo, Judo, and kickboxing. He has a shorter 69” reach, so it will be interesting to see how he fairs against higher level strikers who can stay on the outside. He’s also struggled with being controlled at times, and even an opponent making his pro debut was able to control Sadykhov for extended periods of time along the fence in his fourth most recent fight. Sadykhov trains at Longo And Weidman MMA with guys like Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Matt Frevola, who got knocked out in seven seconds by Sadykhov’s next opponent, Terrance McKinney. Sadykhov said Frevola should be in his corner for this fight.
Terrance McKinney
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Looking to bounce back from his second loss in his last three fights, McKinney recently got knocked out with a flying knee from Ismael Bonfim in the second round. McKinney never looked comfortable in the fight, as Bonfim took an early lead in striking and also stuffed both of McKinney’s takedown attempts. That fight took place in front of Bonfim’s home crowd and the trip down to Brazil seemed to be a learning experience for McKinney, for more reasons than one. He recently talked about how he wished he had gone down sooner to make the weight cut easier and he acknowledged that he was too tentative in the fight, after being overly aggressive in past fights and then overcorrecting. His previous eight fights all ended in round one, and that was the first time McKinney saw a second round since going on DWCS in 2019, where he also got knocked out in the second round from a flying knee, that time against Sean Woodson. McKinney then got submitted in just 57 seconds by Darrick Minner in his next fight, before rattling off four straight knockouts in 62 seconds or less, including a seven second KO win over Matt Frevola in his UFC debut, followed by a first round submission over Fares Ziam. McKinney nearly finished Drew Dober early in his fight after that, but DOber was able to survive and outlast McKinney to land a first round knockout of his own and hand McKinney his first UFC loss. McKinney bounced back with a first round submission win over a terrible Erick Gonzalez, leading up to his recent loss to Bonfim.
Now 13-5 as a pro, McKinney has still never been to the judges and only one of his 18 pro fights even made it past the midway mark, which was a 2018 submission win 43 seconds into round three in McKinney’s fourth pro fight. He has five wins by KO/TKO and eight submissions. He’s also been knocked out four times and has one submission loss. Fifteen of his 18 pro fights ended in round one (12-3), two ended in round two (0-2), and one ended in round three. Amazingly, seven of those first round finishes ended in the opening minute (5-2), and his last nine and 12 of his 13 career wins came in under three minutes.
One of his four career losses results from a leg injury, while the other four were all against fighters currently in the UFC, in Sean Woodson, Darrick Minner, Drew Dober, and Ismael Bonfim. McKinney turned pro in 2017 and started off at 145 lb before moving up to 155 lb. He went back and forth between the two weight classes early in his career and even fought as high as 170 lb once, but it appears he’s settled in at 155 lb.
Overall, McKinney is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands. He’s also a former college wrestler and is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down after the first three minutes. His two biggest weaknesses are his cardio and striking defense, both of which he’s been able to mask in all of his early wins. However, it seems like he’s trying to slow things down some, which is exposing his flaws. It’s never easy to reinvent yourself on the biggest stage and we’ve seen other aggressive finishers like Randy Costa try, only to throw away the one thing they were good at—landing quick finishes. To McKinney’s credit, he’s a much more well-rounded fighter than Costa, but the point remains. Following his recent loss, McKinney moved from Spokane, Washington down to Texas and is now training with Kevin Holland and a new team. He said he’s made a lot of improvements to his striking since making the move, so it will be interesting to see how different he looks and how aggressive he comes into this next match.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’10”, but McKinney will have a 4” reach advantage.
McKinney seems to be in a transitional phase of his career as he tries to find a sustainable gameplan that doesn’t leave him reliant on immediately finishing opponents before he gasses out three minutes into the first round. He’s training with a new team and claims he’s made major improvements to his striking, while trying to find the right level of aggressiveness to approach fights with. That automatically makes this a more volatile spot, as we don’t know exactly what we’ll get from him. He dialed things back for his last two matches, but he made it sound like he’ll be a little more aggressive here than in his last fight. He looks to have the quicker hands in this matchup, but Sadykhov is the more durable of the two and clearly has a cardio advantage. They both have decent wrestling, so that could be a wash, leaving this outcome dependent on whether or not McKinney can knock Sadykhov out before he gasses out trying. With that in mind, Sadykhov has never been knocked out, but he’s also never faced anyone like McKinney and also got momentarily dropped in the first round of his last fight. It remains to be seen how different McKinney will look, but it’s only been six months since we last saw him, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll look like a completely different fighter. Maybe his striking technique will be slightly improved, but his cardio and durability concerns will remain and he’ll likely still need a finish in the first round to win. His speed advantage should give him every opportunity to find that finish, but if he gets too aggressive he could also easily get knocked out himself and defense has never been his thing. And the longer the fight goes, the more likely it will be that McKinney gasses and Sadykhov knocks him out, so regardless of who wins, it would be shocking if this didn’t end early. As the odds suggest, we could see this going either way and it’s always hard backing a guy with bad defense and terrible cardio. However, we’re not sold on Sadykhov either and we think the key factor will be McKinney’s speed advantage early on in the fight. That should give him every opportunity to find another quick knockout, but if the fight makes it out of round one we’ll definitely be looking to live bet Sadykhov if the line hasn’t already gotten out of control. It feels pretty fishy, but McKinney by R1 KO is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “McKinney R1 KO” at +500.
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DFS Implications:
Sadykhov scored just 78 DraftKings points in his recent R3 TKO win in his UFC debut and his previous R3 KO win on DWCS would have only been good for 92 DraftKings points. He only attempted one takedown in those two fights and failed to top 64 significant strikes landed in either of them. While all but one of his eight career wins have ended early, four of his last five finishes occurred in the later rounds and he appears reliant on landing finishes in the first two rounds to really score well. With that said, Terrance McKinney does not fight to see the third round and his kill or get killed style of fighting obviously increases the scoring potential for both guys in this one. While Sadykhov walked away with a third round doctor stoppage TKO in his UFC debut, he was fortunate to do so, as he lost both of the first two rounds on all three judges’ scorecards. He looked a step behind in most of the striking exchanges, which isn’t encouraging for his potential here as he faces a more dangerous finisher in McKinney. With that said, McKinney has suspect durability and terrible cardio, so if Sadykhov can land something clean early or even simply survive the opening round, he’ll have a good shot at knocking McKinney out and scoring well in the process. McKinney is always incredibly popular, which also adds to Sadykhov’s tournament appeal as a leverage play. The odds imply Sadykhov has a 57% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 27% chance it comes in round one.
McKinney is the ultimate boom or bust fighter, which is news to literally no one. He’s never been in a match that lasted longer than 11 minutes and has only been past the first round three times in 18 pro fights. He averaged 110 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, all of which came in 137 seconds or less and has now reverted back to dog status after getting knocked out in two of his last three fights. The last two times McKinney was priced as a dog on DraftKings, he came in at 42% and 56% ownership, although both of those were smaller cards. Nevertheless, and despite his recent loss, we expect him to be very popular once again. We do have some new variables in play, as McKinney just moved from Washington to Texas and is now training with Kevin Holland. McKinney claims he’s improved his striking since making the move, but it’s his durability and cardio that really concern us. Twelve of his 13 pro wins have come in under three minutes, which leaves him with a very narrow window to win fights. We saw him come into his last fight a little less aggressive, but that appeared to be to his own detriment, as he just lowered his chances of finding a finish and still eventually slowed down in round two and got knocked out. He made it sound like he plans on being a little more aggressive here, but only time will tell. He’s the most volatile fighter on the card, with a massively wide range of scoring outcomes, a cheap price tag, and incredibly high ownership. Getting this spot right will be essential in tournaments, but that’s easier said than done and either guy could get knocked out here. The odds imply McKinney has a 43% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Norma Dumont
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Fresh off a low-volume decision win over Karol Rosa, Dumont has gone the distance in six straight fights (5-1), after getting knocked out in the first round of her UFC debut against Megan Anderson. Rosa was able to knock Dumont down in the third round, in an otherwise uneventful fight where Dumont finished ahead in significant strikes just 35-33 and in takedowns 1-0. Prior to that, Dumont won a decision over a debuting one-dimensional boxer in Danyelle Wolf, who Dumont was easily able to take down in the back half of the fight once she actually attempted a takedown. Dumont continued to showcase her non-existent IQ in that fight as she waited until midway through the second round to attempt her first takedown and never pushed for a finish on the mat. Dumont’s only loss in her last six fights came against the freakishly tall Macy Chiasson, who was able to take Dumont down six times and win a split decision.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Dumont has two career R1 submission wins and seven decision victories. She’s been knocked out once and has one decision loss. Her two submission wins came in her first three pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0 and 0-2 and Dumont has never finished an opponent who has won a single pro fight. Dumont has fought at both 135 lb and 145 lb in her career, but has shown no ability to successfully make 135 lb since joining the UFC. Following the loss to Anderson in her debut at 145 lb, Dumont attempted to drop down to 135 lb but never even came close to hitting the mark, weighing in at 139.5 for her one fight to actually happen at 135 lb and having another fight canceled because she missed weight so badly. Her last five fights have all been at 145 lb and the UFC realized it’s pointless to offer her 135 lb fights anymore. She claims she can make 135 lb, but she says a lot of stupid things and she’s even missed weight cutting to 145 lb.
Overall, Dumont is a BJJ brown belt and a black belt in Sanda, which is a form of Chinese kickboxing, so she’s fairly well rounded. She’s never knocked anybody out and hasn’t looked like any sort of submission threat at the UFC level, but her biggest issue is her non-existent IQ and she’s just completely clueless about pretty much everything. She has all of the physical tools required to make a run in the division, but it almost seems like she consciously chooses not to use them. She only averages 3.45 SSL/min and 2.07 SSA/min and has been content with grinding out boring decisions and then calling for title shots. In her seven UFC fights, she’s landed 8 takedowns on 14 attempts (57.1% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on 6 of their 22 attempts (72.7% defense). A lot of people think the UFC is threatening to get rid of the women’s Featherweight division because Amanda Nunes retired, but in reality they just want to get rid of Norma Dumont once and for all.
Chelsea Chandler
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Chandler is coming off a first round TKO win in her UFC debut against Julija Stoliarenko, which took place at 140 lb Catchweight. Chandler’s two previous fights had both been at 145 lb, while Stoliarenko had been fighting at 135 lb and is actually planning on cutting down to 125 lb on next week’s card (good luck). Stoliarenko was able to easily take Chandler down early in the fight and quickly looked for her signature armbar, but Chandler easily escaped the position and ended up in top position and took over from that point on before finishing Stoliarenko with ground and pound later in the round. That was Chandler’s fifth straight win since losing a decision in her 2018 pro debut. Three of her last four wins ended in under nine minutes.
Now 5-1 as a pro, Chandler has two wins by TKO, one submission, and two decision victories. All three of her finishes ended in the first two rounds, with her last two finishes ending in round one. Her only loss came in a decision in her 2018 pro debut. She’s never faced an opponent with a losing record, and her first four opponents all entered with undefeated records, albeit none with more than four pro fights. Chandler’s first three pro fights were at 135 lb, before she moved up to 145 lb for her next two matches. She made her UFC debut at a 140 lb Catchweight, but will now be going back up to 145 lb. She says that’s where she prefers to fight and she’s hoping to lead the charge in keeping the division alive, but if the UFC gets rid of it she’ll try and cut down to 135 lb.
Overall, Chandler is a brawling bully who will throw down on the feet but also looks to take opponents down and finish them on the mat, typically with ground and pound. She has spent time training at Tiger Muay Thai as well as the Nick Diaz Academy, and Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu, and she fights out of Stockton, California. She’s only a BJJ purple belt, but uses her strength well in the grappling exchanges. She can get reckless on the feet, but has heavy hands and typically gets the best of wild exchanges and lands a good amount of volume. She’ll also drop thudding elbows and punches on the mat and looks to inflict damage with every strike she throws. She didn’t attempt any takedowns in her UFC debut, but did a good job of ending up on top when Stoliarenko initiated the grappling exchanges, with Stoliarenko landing one of her three takedown attempts.
Fight Prediction:
Chandler will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This will be the ultimate test to see if anyone can force Dumont into an exciting fight, as Chandler is an aggressive fighter who’s always looking to do damage. Both women have acknowledged that the future of the Featherweight division may rely on them putting on an exciting fight but trusting Dumont to live up to that requires a leap of faith. Here are the significant striking totals in Dumont’s last five fights: 35-33, 52-20, 38-32, 65-33 (five rounds), 68-47. Chandler will be the aggressor in this match, while Dumont will be looking to counterstrike. The only fighter to ever get Dumont down was Macy Chiasson, so it will be interesting to see if Chandler can become the second. Dumont is a pretty good technical striker when she actually lets her hands go, although her defenses aren’t great as she keeps her chin high and she’s been dropped twice in the UFC. Chandler is more of a brawler, so she’ll want to make this fight ugly and force Dumont into more of a dog fight. That’s where things will get interesting and we could see both of them landing clean shots on the other. We like Chandler’s chances in that type of fight, but Dumont has far more UFC experience and we’ve yet to see Chandler tested in a striking battle at the UFC level. If anyone lands a finish, it will probably be Chandler knocking Dumont out, but the oddsmakers still expect this to go the distance, which isn’t surprising considering Dumont has fought to six straight decisions. Because we like Chandler to be the one pushing the pace, we also give her the advantage in a decision, although we could see it being really close if this hits the scorecards. Dumont seems like a tough matchup for Chandler, but we’re still leaning towards the underdog in this one and we’ll say Chandler wins a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is Chandler’s ML at +125.
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DFS Implications:
Dumont is one of the most frustrating fighters to play in DFS as she actively tries to sabotage her scoring production and refuses to take the path of least resistance in fights. Her rock chewing mentality to fighting and disconnect with reality make it impossible to trust her, and she’s fought to six straight decisions, winning five of those. She averaged 80 DraftKings points in those five decision wins, but the only time she ever really scored well was in a 2020 decision victory over Ashlee Evans-Smith, in a 135 lb fight where Dumont showed up at 139.5 lb, and scored 103 DraftKings points. In her four decision wins since then, Dumont has only topped 74 DraftKings points once, which was when she scored 92 points against a one-dimensional boxer in Danyelle Wolf. If Dumont had any clue, she would have immediately taken that fight to the ground and found a finish, but alas, it’s Norma Dumont we’re talking about here. The only reasons to consider playing Dumont here are that she’s consistently low owned on DraftKings (17%, 15%, and 8% in her last three fights) and Chandler will be looking to push the pace and force Dumont to have a little more output. The odds imply Dumont has a 57% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.
Chandler’s aggressive fighting style is perfectly suited to DFS production, as she’s looking to brawl on the feet and take opponents down and finish them on the mat. We saw that play out in her recent UFC debut where she landed a first round ground and pound TKO and scored 111 points on DraftKings. However, she will get a tougher matchup here and Dumont has been a master of slowing fights down and dragging them to decisions. Dumont also has a solid 72% takedown defense and tree trunks for legs. That could make it tougher for Chandler to land takedowns, although we have seen Dumont dropped twice in the UFC and she keeps her chain way up in the air. If Chandler can march her down and make her uncomfortable, it’s definitely possible she can knock her out, but as matchups go this isn’t a favorable one for scoring well. Nevertheless, at Chandler’s cheap price tag, she has the potential to serve as a value play in a decision and also has finishing upside. The odds imply Chandler has a 43% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
JunYong Park
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off a pair of submission wins after his first four UFC wins all went the distance, Park was able to make the most out of two very favorable matchups. The most recent of those submission wins came in the first round against Denis Tiuliulin, after Park landed a second round submission against Joseph Holmes. Prior to the pair of finishes, Park won a close/questionable split-decision over Eryk Anders, who spent the entire fight trying to take Park down but was only able to complete 3 of his 24 attempts. Park’s only loss in his last seven fights came in a 2021 R2 KO against Gregory Rodrigues, in a fight that Park nearly landed a finish of his own. That’s the only time Park has ever been knocked out in his career. Park’s only other losses in his last 16 fights were a second round submission loss in his UFC debut against Anthony Hernandez and a second round submission loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov back in 2016.
Now 16-5 as a pro, Park has five wins by KO/TKO, five more by submission, and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once, submitted twice, and has two decision losses. All three of his early losses have come in the second round. His first seven UFC fights all saw the second round, with four going the distance, before he landed a first round submission most recently.
Park spent a portion of his early career fighting at 170 lb before settling in at 185 lb in 2018. He went 5-1 at 170 lb with his lone loss ending in a split decision and four of those five wins coming early. He’s also had three fights at 174-176 lb, where he went 2-1, with all three fights ending early. He competed four times at 185 lb prior to joining the UFC, winning the last three of those, with two of those wins coming by KO. All eight of his UFC fights have also been at 185 lb, where he’s gone 6-2, bringing his career 185 lb record to 9-3.
Overall, Park seems slightly undersized at 185 lb, which makes sense considering he used to fight at 170 lb. He’s a pretty well rounded fighter, with decent striking and grappling, and has recently shown the ability to find finishes when given the right matchup. He’s generally a patient fighter, but we did see him let loose in his fight against Rodrigues before eventually getting finished. Park has only been taken down 12 times on 41 opponent attempts (70.7% defense), although 21 of those 29 failed attempts came from Eryk Anders and prior to that Park had just a 47.1% defense. Park has landed 14 takedowns of his own on 27 attempts (51.9% accuracy) and has been very smart/strategic as to when he looks to wrestle. In his fights against Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues, who are both grapplers, Park didn’t attempt a single takedown. However, in his fights against one dimensional strikers in Marc-Andre Barriault, John Phillips, Tafon Nchukwi, and Denis Tiuliulin, Park landed 12 takedowns on 22 attempts. Now he’s facing a wrestler, so it will be interesting to see if Park relies more on his striking or if he tries to see how Duraev fares off his back.
Albert Duraev
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fresh off a split-decision win over Chidi Njokuani, Duraev has gone the distance in two of his three UFC fights, with the one exception being a 2022 post R2 TKO loss to Joaquin Buckley. That loss snapped a 10-fight winning streak and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Duraev’s second most recent loss. Prior to that loss, Duraev won a decision in his 2021 UFC debut against Roman Kopylov. Duraev surprisingly didn’t even attempt a takedown in the first round but started looking for takedowns in the later rounds after getting dropped in the opening seconds of round two. However, he was only able to land 1 of his 9 takedowns in the fight. He gassed out late in the fight after nearly finding a finish on the mat late in round two. Duraev originally punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round submission win on DWCS just six weeks prior making his debut, but hadn’t fought in three years prior to that. He won the Russian ACB Middleweight Championship belt in 2017 in a striking battle that only ended up on the mat once Duraev hurt his opponent and forced him to look for a takedown, at which point Duraev reversed it and finished the fight with ground and pound. Duraev also previously won the ABC Welterweight title in 2016, as he’s fought at both 170 lb and 185 lb throughout his career.
Now 16-4 as a pro, Duraev has three wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and four decision victories. All four of his career losses have come by KO/TKO in the first two rounds and only 6 of his 20 pro fights have made it to a third round. Duraev has competed at both 170 lb and 185 lb for periods of time in his career. He’s gone 6-1 at 170 lb and 10-3 at 185 lb. One of Duraev’s four KO losses came against decision grinder Ramazan Emeev, who hasn’t shown the ability to finish a hot meal since joining the UFC, which isn’t a great sign for Duraev’s chin.
Overall, Duraev is a Russian grappler who does his best work on the mat, landing ground and pound and hunting for submissions. However, he’s shown a non-existent fight IQ and he’ll forgo takedown attempts and duke things out on the feet, where he’s been far less impressive.
Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed just 6 of his 22 takedown attempts (27.3% accuracy), while he’s been taken down himself on 1 of 2 opponent attempts (50% defense). Duraev has shown a suspect chin and a fragile orbital so far in the UFC, getting knocked down three times in his three UFC fights, with his orbital habitually swelling up badly. Duraev trains out of Xtreme Couture and is one of Sean Strickland’s primary sparring partners, which helps to explain why he lets his ego dictate his game plans.
Fight Prediction:
Duraev will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
These two look pretty evenly matched, as they’re both solid grapplers who also don’t mind keeping things standing. Park looks to have the advantage in cardio, IQ, and durability, which should be enough to set him apart in this fight. It will be interesting to see how many takedowns are attempted in the match, as it’s entirely possible the grappling will be a wash and it turns into a pure striking battle. With that said, we’d be somewhat surprised if no takedowns were attempted. While this most likely ends in a close decision with Park getting his hand raised, we wouldn’t be shocked to see Park land a late finish.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -112.
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DFS Implications:
Park is coming off his first two early wins in the UFC after his first four victories with the organization all ended in decisions. While he was able to put up a big score in his infamous decision win over John Phillips, he’s generally been reliant on landing finishes to really score well. And while he’s coming off two straight early wins, those were both teed up matchups designed for him to find success, this should be a tougher spot to find a finish. Duraev has been prone to getting knocked out, but Park’s last KO win was all the way back in 2018 against an opponent who had just three pro fights. The most likely outcome here is for Park to win a decision and score 75-90 DraftKings points, which won’t be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups, and he’ll likely need a finish to be useful. The odds imply Park has a 57% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Duraev is constantly looking for new ways to blow golden opportunities, and even in favorable matchups he’s yet to show any sort of scoring ceiling. Now he gets a tougher matchup to find wrestling success, so we don’t have much confidence in him. With that said, he still has theoretical scoring potential through his grappling, but Park has a pretty solid 70% takedown defense. If Duraev wins another decision, it’s possible he could still serve as a value play even without putting up a huge score, but with several high-upside underdogs priced around him there are still lots of ways he gets left out of winning tournament lineups even if he does pull off the upset. He’ll either need a finish or grappling-heavy decision win to really score well, and it won’t be surprising if this fight remains on the feet for extended periods of time. The odds imply Duraev has a 43% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Francisco Prado
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Prado will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss in his UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey, which was the first loss of Prado’s young career. He’s still only 21 years old and just turned pro in 2019, but finished all 11 of his opponents on the Argentinian regional scene. Mullarkey came in with a much more cautious game plan than we’re accustomed to seeing from him, where he took Prado down three times and controlled him for a third of the fight, while also finishing ahead 59-28 in the low-volume fight. Prado was at a reach and height disadvantage in that matchup and it showed, as he struggled to find his range in the fight.
Now 11-1 as a pro, Prado has five wins by KO/TKO and six submission victories. Eight of those 11 finishes came in round one, two ended in the first half of round two, and one occurred in the opening two minutes of round three. The only time he’s ever been past the 11:07 mark was in the decision loss in his recent UFC debut. He also hadn’t faced much in the way of competition prior to joining the UFC.
Overall, Prado is a young, aggressive finisher, who is often looking to get fights to the ground to look for finishes. We have seen him partake in pure striking battles, but two of his last three finishes came on the ground. While he failed to land either of his takedown attempts in his recent UFC debut, and got taken three times on four attempts by Mullarkey, Prado got deep on a kimura attempt in the third round and was at least able to use it to reverse position on the mat. Mullarkey was a BJJ black belt with a wrestling background and a size advantage, so that wasn’t a great spot for Prado to find grappling success, but he’ll get a more favorable matchup here. With that said, Prado is still very young and green and has yet to prove he can win fights at the UFC level.
Ottman Azaitar
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off the first loss of his career in a R1 KO against Matt Frevola, Azaitar has only fought the one time since September 2020. He had been scheduled to fight in November 2021, but got pulled from the card for being sketchy and breaking COVID protocol #potatogate. He knocked out a fragile Khama Worthy in the first round of his second most recent fight, back in 2020, but who hasn’t? Worthy has been knocked out in 9 of his 10 career losses and submitted in the other. Prior to that, Azaitar knocked out Teemu Packalen in the first round of Azaitar’s 2019 UFC debut. Packalen went 1-3 in the UFC and never fought again following the loss.
Now 13-1 as a pro, Azaitar has 10 wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and one decision victory (2016). His last three and 10 of his 12 wins ended in round one. Both of his submissions came back in 2015, and he generally relies on his power to win fights, with his last five wins all ending in knockouts. Basically all of his career wins have come against pretty suspect competition, and when he finally faced a legitimate opponent in his last fight he got knocked out.
Overall, Azaitar is a dangerous power puncher with a background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. While he’s of Moroccan descent, he grew up in Germany, which is where he fought his first seven pro bouts until he joined Brave in 2016, before moving onto the UFC in 2019. Azaitar rarely requires more than five minutes to finish opponents and four of his 12 finishes have come in under a minute. However, after taking 26 months off from 2020 to 2022, he didn’t look great in his last fight, and his inactivity is concerning. The last time he was in a fight that lasted longer than three and a half minutes was in 2017, so his current cardio levels remain a mystery. The only time his chin has been tested in the UFC it failed him, which also leaves questions surrounding his durability. He’s also only had to defend one half-hearted takedown in the UFC, while failing to attempt any takedowns of his own, so we have no idea what his grappling looks like at the UFC level. However, we did see him get controlled on the mat in a 2017 fight with the Brave organization that ended in an Azaitar R3 TKO win via body kick, which is the only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round since 2014. Azaitar has several unanswered questions surrounding him, but he’s definitely high on our list of potentially fraudulent fighters.
Fight Prediction:
Prado has a 2” height advantage, but Azaitar has a 2” reach advantage. Prado is 12 years younger than the 33-year-old Azaitar.
Both of these two rely heavily on landing finishes to win fights and they’ve each only been to one decision in their respective careers. Prado has been the much more active fighter in recent years, and while Azaitar only has one fight since September 2020, Prado has competed nine times since then. Prado is also the younger and more well-rounded fighter, and the more likely of the two to be making noticeable improvements at this stage in his career. They’re both coming off their first career loss, and neither of them had been facing much in the way of competition before that, which creates the potential for one or both of them to be fraudulent. That also adds some uncertainty to how aggressive they’ll come into this next match, as you never know how fighters will respond to their first pro loss. That’s especially concerning for Azaitar, who just got knocked out, while Prado lost an uneventful decision where he probably wishes he had been more aggressive. While they’re both dangerous, neither of them have landed more than 28 significant strikes or notched a takedown in a UFC fight and it’s not impossible that this fight starts off with a prolonged feeling out process with very little early activity. That’s probably not what most people are expecting when they see the fight is favored to end in under a round and a half, but it’s definitely in play. Prado has shorter arms and struggled to find his range in his recent debut and he’d be wise to try and get this fight to the mat to negate the power of Azaitar. However, he’s a young guy without a ton of experience, so it’s hard to fully trust him to take the path of least resistance. If the fight remains standing, both guys are capable of knocking the other out, and it will likely come down to who lands the cleaner shots first. We see more ways for Prado to win, while Azaitar has largely relied on landing first round knockouts. While the line has moved in Azaitar’s favor throughout the week, we like Prado to finish Azaitar. A knockout or submission are both in play, and the finish may come easier the longer the fight goes, as Azaitar begins to slow down.
Our favorite bet here is Prado’s ML at -110.
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DFS Implications:
Prado was never able to get much going in his recent UFC debut, but in fairness to the kid he was 20 years old and making his UFC debut on a PPV card and fighting a veteran in Jamie Mullarkey in front of Mullarkey’s home crowd. That was also the first time he had ever fought outside of Argentina, so he had all sorts of factors to adjust to. He at least survived to see the judges and was still looking for a finish late in the fight as he nearly locked up a kimura in the third round. So there were still some positives to take away from it and we expect him to build on the performance here. While he’s going up against a dangerous knockout artist in this fight, he should have a grappling advantage and would be wise to use it. If he can get the fight to the mat, he can neutralize the power of Azaitar and wear on his gas tank. All 11 of Prado’s career wins have come early, split pretty evenly between knockout and submissions, which shows clear upside in DFS. However, all of those wins came against a lower level of competition on the Argentinian regional scene and Prado still needs to prove he can win fights at the UFC level. He’s certainly not a “safe” play and will run the risk of getting knocked out early if this fight remains standing, but he has more ways to find a finish than Azaitar and will also be lower owned. That makes him a great high-risk leverage play in tournaments with tons of scoring potential. The odds imply Prado has a 51% chance to win, a 40% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Azaitar is coming off his first career loss where he got knocked out by Matt Frevola midway through the first round last November. That’s the only time Azaitar has fought since late 2020 and he never looked good in the fight. While Azaitar is known for landing his own early knockouts, all of his wins have come against very dubious competition and he has all the makings of a fraud. The line flipped for his last fight and after he opened the week as a slight -105 underdog, he closed as a -165 favorite. He was only priced at $7,700 on DraftKings, which contributed to him being 50% owned in the loss. He’s in a similar situation this week, as he opened as a +110 underdog and got priced at $8,000 on DraftKings before the line moved in his favor. We should once again see him be very popular, although probably to a lesser extent than last time now that he’s coming off a loss and is not quite as mispriced. While he’s proven he can put up big scores when he lands knockouts, he’s very one-dimensional and hasn’t shown any sort of grappling game. So if he somehow wins a decision, he’s unlikely to score well, although 10 of his 12 career wins ended in round one and he’s only been to one decision in his career. Ultimately, he looks like a super highly owned R1 KO or bust option who’s facing an opponent who’s never been finished. What could go wrong? The odds imply he has a 49% chance to win, a 38% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Jack Della Maddalena
5th UFC Fight (4-0)This will be Della Maddalena’s third booked opponent in the last couple of weeks, so hopefully this one finally sticks. He originally had been scheduled to fight Sean Brady on last week’s card, but Brady dropped out and Harrell was announced as the replacement six days before that event. Then Harrell wasn’t medically cleared and dropped out after weigh-ins, when both guys had already made weight. Della Maddalena hung around and said he still wanted to get a fight after traveling all the way from Australia, and the UFC found him another short notice opponent for this card.
Della Maddalena has won 14 straight fights, finishing 13 of those opponents, after losing his first two pro matches. He’s finished all four of his UFC opponents in under three and a half minutes. While two of those were complete layups, his finishes over Ramazan Emeev and Randy Brown were more impressive. We even saw a rare submission out of him in his recent win over Brown. The only time he’s required the judges in his career was when he went on DWCS in 2021 and faced an incredibly durable Ange Loosa, who’s never been finished in his career. Prior to joining the UFC, Della Maddalena was the five-time Eternal MMA Welterweight Champion in Australia.
Now 14-2 as a pro, Della Maddalena has 11 wins by KO, two submissions, and one decision victory. He got knocked out in the third round of his 2016 pro debut, and was then submitted in the first round of his next fight, but hasn’t lost since then. Eight of Della Maddalena’s 13 finishes came in round one, with the other five ending in round two, and he’s only seen the third round twice in his career, and only once in his last 15 matches.
Overall, Della Maddalena relies mostly on his crisp boxing to win fights, but he is a BJJ brown belt and also has some Judo experience. He showed in his last fight that he’ll wrap up a neck given the opportunity, but he’s generally looking to knock opponents out. He’s a former Australian rugby player and an all around tough and durable fighter. He leads the slate in striking volume, averaging 8.27 SSL/min and does a good job of mixing in devastating body shots with his punching combinations. His striking is primarily boxing based and we haven’t seen him mix in a ton of leg kicks, although did look to attack the long legs of Randy Brown some in his last match, after only landing one leg kick in his previous three UFC fights. Della Maddalena has yet to attempt a takedown in his four UFC fights, while going 0 for 3 on his attempts on DWCS. In those five fights, his opponents got him down twice on seven attempts (71.4% defense), but he’s been both a tough guy to get down and also tough to hold down. This will be the second straight week Della Maddalena has cut weight, so keep an eye on him on the scale.
Bassil Hafez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut, this match was only announced on Monday. Hafez is coming off the first knockout win of his career, which came in the third round of a five-round Fury FC Welterweight title fight in a rematch against Evan Cutts. Prior to that, Hafez won a three-round split decision over Anthony Ivy, after losing a five-round split decision to Evan Cutts the first time those two fought. Hafez also notably fought Jeremiah Wells to a draw back in 2017, although how that fight ended in a draw remains a mystery as there were no point deductions or apparent 10-8 rounds. Five of Hafez’s last eight fights have gone the distance (2-2-1), with four of those five decisions being split (1-2-1). Five of his last six fights have seen the third round, with the one exception being a 2020 R1 submission win.
Now 8-3-1 as a pro, Hafez has one KO win, four submissions, and three decision victories. All three of his submission wins ended in round one, while his lone knockout came in round three. All three of his losses went the distance, and he’s never been finished.
Overall, Hafez is dangerous both on the feet or the mat and is a first degree BJJ black belt. He had been training at Factory X, but switched to Elevation Fight Team before his last fight and his striking looked improved in his one fight since making the move. He won the Welterweight belt with both Cage Fury FC and Fury FC, although he lost his only title defense. Hafez said he’s been staying ready lately with the goal of stepping into a short notice UFC fight and saying yes to a bunch of names when spots have opened up, but no one had agreed to fight him until now. Despite training at elevation, we’ve seen him slow down late in grappling-heavy fights at multiple times in the past, so it will be interesting to see how his cardio looks here if this fight runs long, considering he’s stepping in on short notice. Either way, even if Hafez struggles here, he’ll be a guy to keep an eye on moving forward and there are lots of guys he can beat on the UFC roster.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’11”, but Della Maddalena will have a 1” reach advantage and is five years younger than the 31-year-old Hafez.
This is a much tougher matchup for Della Maddalena than the one he had been preparing for last week (Harrell), but still an easier one than he had been getting ready for originally (Brady). Hafez is solid all around and will have the grappling advantage in this matchup, but we’ve seen him tire himself out through grappling in the past, and we doubt he has three rounds of grappling in him after stepping in on short notice. While Hafez’s striking looked improved in his last fight, he’s still way behind Della Maddalena in that department, and we expect Hafez to be forced to look to grapple. Della Maddalena has shown the ability to escape submissions and Hafez only has one submission win since 2018, so while it’s not impossible that Hafez can lock something up on the mat, it is unlikely. And while Hafez’s grappling could create opportunities for Della Maddalena to look for submissions, we don’t see him being able to submit the BJJ black belt unless he’s half unconscious first. What we could see happening here is for Hafez to find some early grappling success, but then slow down in round two and get knocked out by Della Maddalena. However, if Hafez’s cardio holds up, it’s not impossible he could survive a bit longer or even take this all the way to the judges considering he’s never been finished in his career. It’s definitely not a slam dunk knockout for Della Maddalena but we’ll say he gets it done in the second round.
Our favorite bet here is “Jack Della Maddalena R2 or R3 KO” at +380.
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DFS Implications:
Della Maddalena has dominated all four of his UFC opponents, finishing each of them in the first round and averaging 114 DraftKings points in those four wins. The guy is a wrecking ball and incredibly dangerous with his hands. While he hasn’t attempted a takedown in any of his four UFC fights, he leads the slate with 8.27 SSL/min and has also notched 5 knockdowns in his four UFC appearances. Obviously when you have a guy finishing everybody in the first round, they’re going to be very popular, and his DraftKings ownership has checked in at 36%, 61%, 39%, and 40% in his four UFC matches. We expect him to be one of the most popular fighters once again here, but as the most expensive fighter on the card we could see him get priced out of winning tournament lineups even if he lands an early knockout. Back-to-back weight cuts is far from ideal, and that at least adds a sliver of uncertainty to Della Maddalena here. Nevertheless, he’s shown massive scoring potential in the past and now he gets to go up against a short notice debuting opponent. The odds imply Della Maddalena has an 81% chance to win, a 70% chance to land a finish, and a 46% chance it comes in round one.
Hafez is a far more interesting prospect than your typical short notice debuting fighter, but he’s being put in an incredibly tough spot to succeed against a really tough opponent. Hafez showed improved striking and aggression in his last fight after making the move from Factory X to Elevation Fight Team, which is encouraging for his scoring potential moving forward, but his background is still in grappling where he’s a first degree BJJ black belt. We expect him to rely on that grappling background here, as he faces a more-or-less one-dimensional striker in Della Maddalena. The only problem with that is that Hafez has historically slowed down in grappling-heavy fights and you don’t want to be gassed out and locked in a cage with Della Maddalena. That will make it tougher for Hafez to grind out a decision on the mat, and leaves him more reliant on landing a finish. The fact that Della Maddalena is cutting weight for the second time in as many weeks adds a little volatility here, and could impact his chin and/or cardio. That’s enough for us to want to have some exposure to both sides here, but we’ll be more interested in playing Hafez in future fights. The odds imply Hafez has a 19% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Holly Holm
15th UFC Fight (8-6)Coming off a wrestling-heavy three-round decision win over Yana Santos, Holm has now gone the distance in four straight and six of her last seven fights, with the one exception being a 2019 R1 KO loss to Amanda Nunes. Since her infamous head kick KO win over Ronda Rousey in 2015, Holm is just 5-6 in her last 11 fights. After winning the women’s Bantamweight belt against Rousey, Holm immediately lost it in her next fight to Miesha Tate in a fifth round submission. Holm then moved up to 145 lb in 2017 for a pair of title shots against Germaine de Randamie and Cris Cyborg, but lost by decision in both fights. She stayed at 145 lb for one more match, where she won a three-round decision over Megan Anderson, before cutting back down to 135 lb in her 2019 KO loss to Nunes. Holm has stayed at 135 lb since then, winning three of her last four fights, with the one loss coming in a controversial five-round split decision to Ketlen Vieira in Holm’s second most recent fight. Now 41 years old, the last time Holm finished anybody was in 2017, when she knocked out Bethe Correia in the third round. Holm hasn’t been especially active lately, with just two fights since October 2020. That was largely due to the fact that after a 2020 five-round decision win over Irene Aldana, Holm dealt with a kidney issue followed by a knee injury and was forced to withdraw from both of her booked fights in 2021.
Now 15-6 as a pro, Holm has eight wins by KO/TKO and seven decisions. All eight of her knockout wins ended in the later rounds, with five coming in round two, two in round three, and one in round five. Six of those eight KO/TKO wins came in her first seven pro fights before joining the UFC. She’s also been knocked out once herself, submitted once, and has four decision losses. Both of her early losses came in title fights, one in a 2016 R5 submission against Miesha Tate and the other in a 2019 R1 TKO against Amanda Nunes. Ten of Holm’s 14 UFC fights have gone the distance (6-4). While the majority of Holm’s UFC career has been at 135 lb, she also had three UFC fights up at 145 lb (1-2).
This will be the 11th five round fight for Holm’s career and 10th since she joined the UFC. Her first five-round fight came in 2014, just before she joined the UFC, and she won in a fifth round TKO. Then in Holm’s third UFC fight, she knocked out Ronda Rousey early in the second round of a 2015 match to win the Bantamweight belt. However, she then lost the belt in her next fight in a 2016 fifth round submission against Miesha Tate in a fight that Holm was winning on the scorecards up until that point. That marked the beginning of a three fight skid, as Holm lost a five-round decision to Valentina Shevchenko later that year and then attempted to move up to 145 lb in 2017 to contend for the first women’s Featherweight title, but lost a five-round decision to Germaine de Randamie. Holm then moved back down to 135 lb and knocked out Bethe Correia in the third round of another five-round fight, before returning to 145 lb to face Cris Cyborg for the Featherweight title, where Holm lost another decision. Holm stayed at the weight class to win a three-round decision over Megan Anderson in her next match, before dropping back down to 135 lb in 2019 for yet another title shot, where she got knocked out by Amanda Nunes in the first round. Holm’s next five-round fight came in a 2020 decision win over Irene Aldana, followed by a 2022 five-round split decision loss to Ketlen Vieira in her most recent five-round fight. So overall, Holm is just 3-6 in her nine UFC five-round fights. Five of her nine UFC five-round fights have been for a title, with her losing the last four of those, while she’s gone 2-2 in her four non-titlefight five-round UFC fights. Four of Holm’s nine UFC five-round fights have ended early, but three of her last four have gone the distance.
In case that was hard to follow, here’s a quick summary of all of Holm’s five-round fights:
2022 R5 DEC L (135 lb) vs. Ketlen Vieira
2020 R5 DEC W (135 lb) vs. Irene Aldana
2019 R1 KO L (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Amanda Nunes
2017 R5 DEC L (145 lb Title Fight) vs. Cris Cyborg
2017 R3 KO W (135 lb) vs. Bethe Correia
2017 R5 DEC L (145 lb Title Fight) vs. Germaine de Randamie
2016 R5 DEC L (135 lb) vs. Valentina Shevchenko
2016 R5 SUB L (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Miesha Tate
2015 R2 KO W (135 lb Title Fight) vs. Ronda Rousey
- - -
2014 R5 KO W (135 lb Pre-UFC) vs. Juliana Werner
Overall, Holm is a former professional boxer who also has kickboxing experience. She’s also been adding more wrestling into her game lare in her career, and after only landing two takedowns in her first eight UFC fights, she’s landed 13 in her last six matches. Only once in her first 11 UFC fights did she land more than a single takedown, but now she’s landed four or more in two of her last three fights. Looking at her entire 14 fight UFC career, she’s landed 15 of her 48 takedown attempts (31.3% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on just 7 of their 33 attempts (78.8% defense). Holm only averages 3.17 SSL/min and 2.77 SSA/min, and has only topped 96 significant strikes landed once in her career, despite all of her five-round fights.
Mayra Bueno Silva
9th UFC Fight (5-2-1)Bueno Silva has won all three of her fights since moving up to 135 lb in 2022, after going 2-2-1 at 125 lb in her first five UFC fights. She submitted each of her last two opponents in the first two rounds, after winning a decision over Wu Yanan in her Bantamweight debut. The first of those submissions came against a judo black belt in Stephanie Egger, who Bueno Silva quickly submitted after Egger took her down in round one. The finish ended in controversy, however, as Bueno Silva released the submission before the ref stopped the fight after she said Egger tapped. Egger refused to say whether or not she actually tapped and they were forced to go to replace and then pool the judges as there was no clear video evidence. It was eventually ruled a submission, but it could have gone terribly for Bueno Silva there, who mercifully released the armbar after Egger tapped. Most recently, Bueno Silva landed a second round kneebar against a 40-year-old Lina Lansberg, who came in on a three fight losing streak. After failing to land a takedown in her first seven UFC fights or in her DWCS match, Bueno Silva took Lansberg down twice, so perhaps we’ll finally see her start to wrestle some moving forward. In the past, she had relied on her opponents taking her down to utilize her dangerous grappling, despite four of her five UFC wins ending in submissions, with three of those coming by first round armbar.
Now 10-2-1 as a pro, Bueno Silva has one win by TKO, seven submissions, and two decision victories. While her most recent submission win came in the second round, her previous six all ended in round one, with five of those ending in armbars. Her lone TKO win also came in the first round, all the way back in 2016 in her second pro fight. Both of her career losses went the distance and she’s never been finished. Twelve of her 13 pro fights have either ended in the first round (7-0) or gone the distance (2-2-1). Bueno Silva bounced between 125 lb and 135 lb early in her career, but her first five UFC fights were all at 125, before she moved up to 135 lb for her last three.
This will be the 1st five-round fight of Bueno Silva’s career, so we’ve never seen what her cardio looks like in the championship rounds.
Overall, Bueno Silva is a powerful striker and dangerous submission threat, but has historically been perfectly fine with keeping fights standing. Between her first seven UFC fights and her DWCS, she only attempted a single failed takedown. However, she finally got on the board in her last match, where she landed two of her three attempts, so maybe she’s adding in some wrestling to her game and now owns a 50% takedown accuracy. Her opponents have gotten her down on 11 of their 34 attempts (67.6% defense), but we’re always surprised that people want to take her down based on how dangerous she is off her back, with five first round armbar wins on her record. She’s also extremely durable, in addition to being very dangerous off her back, which makes her a really tough opponent to put away. She used to train at Chute Boxe Diego Lima with Charles Oliveira and countless other high-level fighters, but moved to American Top Team in 2022 and is now training with Kayla Harrison. She recently said she just got a new UFC deal as she headlines a card for the first time.
Fight Prediction:
Holm will have a 2” height advantage and 3” reach advantage, while Bueno Silva is 10 years younger than the 41-year-old Holm.
Holm has been more reliant on her wrestling to win fights lately, but that will be a dangerous game to play against Bueno Silva, who loves looking for armbars off her back and is damn good at completing them. Silva is also made of stone and Holm better bring a bat if she wants to finish her. That leaves Holm with a pretty narrow path to victory here, as she’ll need to outland her way to a decision win on the feet, while avoiding both the power and submission threats of Bueno Silva. Working in Holm’s favor, Bueno Silva averages 4.71 SSA/min and has been a little too content at times showing how tough she is while eating shots. However, her striking numbers have improved since moving up to 135 lb, and in those three recent 135 lb fights she’s averaged 4.99 SSL/min and just 3.65 SSA/min, after averaging 3.82 SSL/min and 5.22 SSA/min in her five 125 lb UFC fights. Holm only averages 3.17 SSL/min and has only topped 96 significant strikes landed once in her 14 UFC appearances, so it’s not as if she’s a big volume striker. That doesn’t mean she can’t dance around the Octagon and methodically pick Bueno Silva apart from the outside, while also potentially holding her up against the cage for periods of time, but that’s probably her lone path to victory. Bueno Silva is obviously the more dangerous grappler, but also looks to have more power in her strikes and is the more durable and much younger of the two. She’ll have a shot at landing a finish anywhere this fight goes, and is still capable of winning a decision if it goes the distance, although who knows what the judges are watching these days. At plus money, it’s hard not to back Bueno Silva here, who is far more live for a finish and probably close to a coin flip if it goes the distance.
Our favorite bet here is “Bueno Silva ML” at +150.
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DFS Implications:
Holm has nine previous five-round UFC fights (3-6) for us to pull data from, although keep in mind she’s also now 41 years old. In her three wins in UFC five-round fights, Holm averaged 100 DraftKings points, although she’s notably gone just 1-4 in five-round decisions. Her lone win in those five fights was against Irene Aldana in 2020, and Holm landed a career best in both significant strikes (154) and takedowns (5), as she scored 133 DraftKings points, also a career high. Her second most recent win in a five-round fight was a 2017 R3 KO that only scored 65 points, with her only other main event victory being her infamous R2 head kick knockout win over Ronda Rousey in 2015 that was good for 101 DraftKings points. In her four five-round decision losses, Holm returned DraftKings totals of 75, 25, 55, and 29 points, and also scored just 27 points in a 2016 R5 submission loss. While she would have scored 105 DraftKings points had the split-decision loss to Ketlen Vieira gone her way, the only real upside Holm has ever shown in her career was against Aldana, which required her to set career marks across the board. It would be foolish of her to try and take Bueno Silva down in this fight, which leaves us far less excited about Holm’s scoring outlook. Holm was only 36% and 24% owned on DraftKings in her last two five-round fights, where she was respectively priced at $9,100 and $8,400 on DraftKings. She projects to come in lower owned than your typical five-round favorite once again, which slightly boosts her tournament appeal. She’s also obviously the much more experienced fighter, and this will be the first five-round fight of Bueno Silva’s career. That adds some uncertainty with Bueno Silva’s cardio in the championship rounds, and Holm has gone five full rounds five times in the UFC and trains at altitude in New Mexico, so her cardio shouldn’t be an issue. With all that said, we don’t see Holm finishing Bueno Silva, and it will be dicey whether or not can Holm score enough to be useful in a decision win. The odds imply Holm has a 61% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Bueno Silva is coming off the first finish of her career to come beyond the first round, when she submitted a washed up 40-year-old Lina Lansberg in round two and scored 109 DraftKings points. Three of her previous four UFC wins came by first round submission, while she’s gone just 1-2-1 with the judges. Her lone UFC decision win only scored 66 DraftKings points and 82 points on FanDuel, although if we extend her numbers over five rounds she would be looking at 91 DraftKings points and 124 points on FanDuel. After failing to land a takedown on just a single attempt in her first seven UFC fights, Bueno Silva landed two of her three attempts in her last fight. Hopefully she’ll continue to look to wrestle more, because she’s a very dangerous submission threat on the mat. Working against her, Holm has a solid 78% takedown defense and only averages 2.77 SSA/min, so it’s not a great matchup for Bueno Silva to fill up the stat sheet. At her cheap price tag she could still serve as a value play in a decision win, but she may need a finish to really score well. This is the first five-round fight of her career, which adds some uncertainty to her cardio in the later rounds and also creates the potential for her to look to pace herself some, both of which are somewhat concerning for her scoring potential. The odds imply Bueno Silva has a 39% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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