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The Hawes/Imavov Fight is OFF!
Fighter Notes:
Austin Lingo
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Lingo came into the UFC with a perfect 7-0 pro record, before losing a February 2020 decision in his debut against Youssef Zalal. Lingo landed an anemic 12 significant strikes and one takedown in the loss, and really struggled with both Zalal’s agility and ground control.
Prior to the decision loss, Lingo had won five of his last six fights in the first round. Three of those came by KO and two were by submission. Six of his seven pre UFC fights were in the LFA. With four of his early wins coming in the first 60 seconds, Lingo has shown the ability to close the show quickly when he gets an opponent who’s willing to stand and trade. We haven’t seen enough of Lingo on the UFC level to know if his finishing ability will translate, but he definitely didn’t give us much to get excited about in his debut.
It’s now been 11 months since Lingo last fought. In a recent interview, Lingo made it seem that he and his coaching staff were waiting for the perfect opportunity before getting back in the Octagon. So apparently they really like this spot.
Jacob Kilburn
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Kilburn is also coming off an even more pathetic showing in his December 2019 UFC debut, where he got completely manhandled by Billy Quarantillo and then submitted in the second round. Quarantillo was also making his UFC debut for what it’s worth. Kilburn had won his two fights prior to that, both by KO, but bouts were under some back alley banner and fighting some seriously suspect opponents.
Outside of his lopsided UFC debut, the only time Kilburn seemingly went up against legitimate competition was when he made an appearance on DWCS back in 2018. He ended up spending six minutes on his back doing his best John Phillips impersonation, before eventually getting submitted early in the second round.
Kilburn now hasn’t fought in 13 months following his debut. During that time he moved to Florida to train with America Top Team—so who knows, maybe they taught him something. In a recent interview he claimed his wrestling has improved. He also blamed his last performance on a bulging disk that he was suffering leading up to the fight and claimed if he got a rematch it would be lopsided again, but this time, like the other way around. There were also some hand gestures involved as he belabored that point.
Fight Prediction:
Lingo will have a 1” height advantage, but Kilburn will own a 2” reach advantage. Despite being a questionable UFC talent himself, Lingo gets a juicy matchup here and we think he should be able to capitalize. He’s shown the ability to finish lower level opponents in the past and this matchup should make him feel like he’s right back in the LFA knocking over trash cans. After losing his UFC debut 11 months ago, Lingo has been patiently waiting for the perfect opportunity to secure his first UFC win and he couldn’t ask for a much better spot. We like Lingo to get the finish in the first two rounds here.
DFS Implications:
Lingo looks like a great DFS buy low opportunity after he got clowned by Zalal in his debut and put up a pathetic 13 DraftKings points. Casuals will surely balk at his hefty price tag, while failing to realize that you’re not paying for his talent but for the privilege of gracing the Octagon with Jacob “The Killer” Kilburn. The only concern with Lingo is trusting that he’ll actually take full advantage of the gift being presented to him and attack Kilburn’s helpless ground game. That’s not to say Lingo can’t win this fight standing up—he absolutely can and that’s generally where he prefers to fight—but Kilburn’s ground game is next level bad and Lingo would be a fool to ignore that.
Kilburn doesn’t appear to have any business inside of the UFC and he is 100% the type of fighter we’re looking to attack in DFS. His god-awful ground game and frightening fight IQ have resulted in him getting submitted in 3 of his 11 pro fights. He does have six finishes on the obscure regional scene, but it’s hard to see him continuing that in the UFC. We can’t in good conscience recommend playing any of Kilburn on this slate, even as a low owned contrarian play.
Sarah Moras
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Moras fought just once in 2020, which ended in a decision loss to Sijara Eubanks last May. Moras was outlanded 85-44 in significant strikes and got taken down twice in the lopsided decision.
Moras did get a R3 KO finish in her fight before that, but that came against a debuting Liana Jojua who looked like she made a wrong turn looking for the bathroom and accidentally stumbled into the Octagon. Even in the victory against a hopeless opponent Moras landed just 44 significant strikes with no takedowns. The performance was her highest scoring DFS effort to date on DraftKings, but still notched just 97 points under the new DraftKings scoring system.
Prior to that win, Moras had dropped her previous three fights, leaving her with just one win in her last five attempts. Moras got knocked out in R2 of her 2019 match against Macy Chiasson, which is the only time she has been finished in her 12 fight pro career. She had lost back to back decisions before the KO loss.
Moras did have a R1 Armbar Submission victory against Ashlee Evans-Smith back in 2017, but each lady landed just three significant strikes and no takedowns were registered, so the finish still scored just 92 DraftKings points. Prior to that, she split a pair of decisions in her first two UFC fights, including going the distance in a loss against Jessica Andrade, which you could argue is a moral victory [dusts off the participation trophy].
In total, five of Moras’ eight UFC fights have ended in decisions, with her losing the last four. Her last two wins have notably both come early, giving at least a fleeting hope for a ceiling performance here.
With that said, Moras has no appreciable power and is reliant on looking for armbars off her back to get finishes. Going against an opponent in Melo, who’s gone 0 for 3 on takedowns in the UFC, Moras is unlikely to get many, if any, of those offensive guard opportunities in this match.
Vanessa Melo
4th UFC Fight (0-3)While Melo has lost all three of her UFC fights in decisions, she has gone up against stiff competition. She fought Irene Aldana on short notice in her 2019 UFC debut. Then she got Tracy Cortez two months later, and most recently went up against Karol Rosa in July 2020. Melo notably missed weight badly in two of her three fights, coming in 4 and 5 lb over the limit in her first and third UFC fights respectively.
Melo has only been finished once in her 18 pro fight career, which was a 2012 R1 KO in just her second pro fight. She doesn’t have any KO victories herself, but she does have two submission wins, both by Rear-Naked Choke. However each of those came early in her career in 2013 and 2015, well before joining the UFC. Her last ten fights have now all ended in decisions.
This will be Melo’s first UFC opponent with a losing UFC record and it appears to be her easiest matchup to date by a wide margin. When you add that to the fact that she’s likely fighting to keep her job, there are some reasons to think we see a ceiling performance out of her—assuming she even has one in her.
Fight Prediction:
Moras will have a 2” height and reach advantage in this fight. This could potentially be an elimination match to see who gets to stay in the UFC. In her eight UFC fights Moras has been outlanded by her opponents 347-213 in significant strikes, while Melo has been outlanded 324-153 in just three fights. No one has put up huge striking numbers on Moras the way they have on Melo, but she’s been consistently outclassed for the majority of her career. Barring a flukey Armbar by Moras, we think this fight is destined to end in another decision, bringing Melo’s decision streak to 11.
Moras opened the week as a -240 favorite, which seemed far too wide for a fighter who’s lost 4 of her last 5 fights. We’ve seen it bet down some, but we still think the value lies on Melo’s side. You never know which way the judges will go in a decision so you might as well have the juice on your side in what feels closer to a coin flip than a blowout. Melo Wins by Decision at +300 feels like the only line worth looking at here unless you want to get crazy and go with Moras Wins by R1 Submission at +1400 or Moras’ anytime Submission line at +615, which both seem like long shots.
DFS Implications:
Moras has failed to land above 44 significant strikes in any of her eight UFC fights. However, she should benefit from the new DraftKings scoring system as only 46.11% of her strikes have gone down as significant in her eight UFC fights. She also gets a dream matchup from a striking standpoint, going against a fighter in Melo who’s absorbed an average of 7.2 significant strikes per minute across 45 minutes of UFC Octagon time. If this goes the distance, it would be surprising if we didn’t see a ceiling performance in terms of the significant strikes landed by Moras—but that’s not saying much considering her previous best is just 44.
With that said, Moras’ best shot at returning DFS value would still likely be to land an early Armbar Submission—which is how she’s accumulated her only two R1 finishes in her pro career. Moras is laughably priced at $9,100 on DraftKings and $20 on FanDuel, and it’s hard to imagine many people clicking her name come Saturday. She really only makes sense as a super contrarian tournament play.
Melo is a low floor, low ceiling DFS play who would likely not only need a win to be useful, but also needs the other fighters priced around her to all lose. Think of her like betting on the zeros in roulette. She’s absorbed more than twice as many significant strikes as she’s landed in her UFC career and has yet to land a takedown on just three attempts.
Ramazan Emeev
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Emeev bounced back from his first UFC loss, which came in a 2019 decision against Anthony Rocco Martin, with a July 2020 decision win against UFC newcomer Niklas Stolze. In the win, Emeev set a new personal best for takedowns landed in a UFC fight with four. He also scored a career high in DraftKings, putting up a whopping 82 points [and there was much rejoicing, yaaaaay].
All five of his UFC fights have been low-volume, low-scoring affairs. Here are the significant strikes landed by Emeev and his opponents over those five fights, beginning with the most recent: 29-30, 30-41, 36-22, 39-12, and 38-29. Pretty gross.
The Dagestani wrestler has landed 10 takedowns across his five fights, including four in his last match, but that’s not enough to make up for his lack of striking if his fights keep ending in decisions, which his last six have.
Emeev fought at 185 lb until 2018 when he dropped down to 170 lb for his second UFC fight. He’s now won 8 of his last 9 fights and is 19-4 as a pro. His only KO loss came in R4 of a 2014 match. His only submission loss came in just his second pro fight back in 2009 by way of R1 Triangle Choke. His two decision losses occurred in 2010 and 2019.
He does have 10 finishes in his 19 career wins, including three KOs and seven submissions, but those all came prior to joining the UFC. He notably did have a period from 2013-2016 where he landed five straight early finishes on the tough Russian M-1 scene, so there is some reason for optimism in terms of his ability to eventually turn out some finishes in the UFC. You could argue he’s “due” after going to six straight decisions.
David Zawada
3rd UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off a R1 Triangle Choke Submission win followed by a 13 month layoff, Zawada lost his first two UFC fights before finally turning things around and then taking a year long victory lap. In all seriousness though, Zawada was scheduled to fight twice in 2020, but the entire April slate was scrapped due to COVID and his October fight against Mounir Lazzez was canceled when Lazzez tested positive for COVID.
Now 17-5 as a pro, 15 of his 17 wins have come early as have 3 of his 5 losses. He has 11 wins by KO and four by submission. Impressively, 10 of those 15 early wins came in the first round. He has also been finished twice himself in the first round, with a KO loss in 2013 and a submission loss in 2014. His only early loss in the UFC was a R3 KO resulting from a kick to the body by Jingliang Li. Just before joining the UFC, Zawaba had won five straight, with four early finishes (3 KOs & 1 Submission).
This will be Zawada’s second straight fight taking on a Dagestani fighter after he submitted Abubakar Nurmagomedov, cousin of Khabib, in R1 of his last match. Zawada looked to be very active off his back as he landed the Triangle Choke on Abubakar. That offensive guard could certainly come into play in this next match, against a wrestler who will almost certainly be looking to take the fight to the ground.
Zawaba has said that the Triangle Choke is his favorite submission, which isn’t surprising based on his aggressive guard. The only time Emeev has ever been submitted notably came via Triangle Choke.
Fight Prediction:
Zawada will have a 2” height advantage, but Emeev will be the one with a 1” reach advantage. We’ve grown accustomed to expecting all of Emeev’s fights to end in decisions, but a submission win for either of these fighters is definitely possible. Interestingly, their submission lines are essentially identical (depending on where you look), despite Emeev being a -260 favorite and having nearly twice as many submission wins on his record. If neither guy is able to land the submission, we expect this to end in another low volume, low scoring decision.
DFS Implications:
Emeev could benefit some from the DraftKings scoring changes as he generally accumulates a decent amount of control time and a number of his strikes have not registered as significant. However, he’s a pace down fighter and is still entirely reliant on an early finish to score well in DFS. Based on his sky-high price on DraftKings of $9,200 and $20 on FanDuel, Emeev would very likely need a R1 finish to hit value. The oddsmakers set his R1 win line at +600, which implies just a 13% chance that it happens. Emeev looks exclusively like a contrarian play in DFS as his ownership will likely be in the low teens.
While we would expect Emeev to win in the event this fight goes to a decision, the near identical submission lines between the two fighters suggest Zawaba’s chances in an early finish are closer than his overall +220 moneyline implies. And because a decision would likely go down as a DFS loss regardless of who gets it, we really only care about the early finish. That makes Zawaba somewhat of an intriguing low-owned dog play if his ownership ends up being as low as we’re projecting.
Carlos Felipe
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Yer “Boi” is coming off a decision win over Yorgan De Castro, and man was he pumped to get his first UFC victory. De Castro continuously pushed Felipe up against the cage late in the fight, not really looking to do any actual damage or even make an attempt to get a finish, which was strange considering he was clearly behind. De Castro notably knocked Tafa out cold a year earlier.
Felipe and Tafa are both 1-1 in the UFC, but Felipe has twice as many pro fights, and has gone 9-1 as a pro with just the one decision loss in his UFC debut. Despite being two years younger, the 25-year-old Felipe went pro three years before Tafa.
Felipe does have six KO wins as a pro, but four of his last seven fights have ended in decisions, including both of his UFC fights. In his UFC debut, he lost a decision to Sergey Spivak, who exposed Felipe’s nonexistent ground game. That’s really more of a situational issue with Heavyweights though, as so many of these big fellas exclusively fight on their feet. We have no reason to believe that Tafa will be looking to take this fight to the mat, as he too appears to have more of a boxing background.
Felipe has only fought twice in the last three and a half years, as he was handed a two-year suspension after testing positive for steroids in 2017. So far we’ve yet to see him knock anyone out since he got off the juice.
Justin Tafa
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Eleven months removed from his first UFC win, Tafa has just five pro fights to his name (two in the UFC), but they’ve all ended in KOs. He won his first three fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC so early in his pro career.
His UFC debut was short lived, as he was put to sleep on his feet by Yorgan De Castro with a face-planting strike 130 seconds into the match. Tafa’s chin looked pretty suspect in the loss, but it’s also the only time we’ve seen it tested in the UFC, so it’s hard to make a definitive judgement.
Tafa bounced back from the loss with a R1 KO of his own over Trent Williams’ stunt double, Juan Adams. His win was far less impressive than his loss was concerning, as he never really put Adams out, but the ref properly stopped the fight. The loss was Adams’ third straight, bringing his UFC record to 1-3, and he hasn’t made it longer than two minutes in his last two fights. So it’s hard to get too excited about Tafa beating him.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” tall, but Felipe will have a 1” reach advantage. We think Felipe will test Tafa’s chin at some point in this fight. How it holds up will likely decide if Felipe gets his first UFC KO or wins another decision. We shouldn’t completely write off Tafa’s chances of getting a KO of his own, as the jury is still out on both of these fighters and anything can happen with Heavyweights. Tafa’s ITD line is +255, implying he has a respectable 26% chance to finish Felipe. We still think Felipe wins this one, but with Heavyweights especially, one punch can change things at any moment.
DFS Implications:
Both of these guys seem like your prototypical R1 or bust Heavyweights, and we don’t anticipate any takedowns to pad DFS scores. They both have landed a similar average of significant strikes in their first two UFC fights, and it’s not enough to keep a decision win in play, barring numerous knockdowns.
Felipe almost certainly needs the R1 finish to be usable in DFS and his R1 win line is set at +400 (19%). He’s especially expensive on FanDuel where he’s priced at $20 (20% of salary), compared to DraftKings where he’s $8,600 (17% of salary). From a value perspective, it makes sense to have the majority of your Felipe ownership on DraftKings, if you’re playing on both sites. However, an argument could be made that his FanDuel price will make him more of a contrarian play over there.
It’s possible Tafa could still be in play with a R2 finish at his discounted price, depending on how the other underdogs perform. His R1 win line is +500 (16%) while his R2 line is +700 (12%). Tafa is considerably cheaper on FanDuel, relative to the salary, where he’s just $11/11%. On DraftKings he’s $7,600/15%. So again, if you’re playing on both sites it makes sense, at least from a value perspective, to have your Felipe exposure on DraftKings and your Tafa exposure on FanDuel.
Wu Yanan
4th UFC Fight (1-2)After winning 10 of her first 11 pro fights, Yanan is now 1-2 in the UFC. She lost a decision to Gina Mazany in her 2017 UFC debut, but bounced back with a R1 Armbar Submission win over Lauren Meuller in 2018. Yanan suffered some sort of shoulder injury, possibly a dislocation, at the end of the first round against Mazany, but was still able to finish the fight. Yanan fought at 135 lb until her second UFC fight when she dropped down to 125 lb and beat Lauren Mueller. This fight looked to be originally scheduled at 125 lb, but is now set to take place at 135 lb.
Following her R1 win over Meuller, Yanan lost an August 2019 split decision to Mizuki Inoue. Despite outlanding Inoue 123-93 in significant strikes, and with neither fighter landing a takedown, Yanan apparently didn’t do enough in the eyes of the judges. It’s now been 17 months since Yanan stepped into the Octagon following the loss.
Two of Yanan’s three career losses have come by decision. The only time she’s been finished early came prior to joining the UFC in a 2016 R2 KO at the hands of current UFC fighter Yana Kunitskaya.
On the other side of things, Yanan’s last seven wins have all come early—as have 9 of her total 11 pro wins. Both of her two decision wins came in her first four pro fights, in 2014 and 2015 respectively. However, nothing in her game really stands out as exceptional on tape and her pre-UFC record is extremely padded. Here are the records of her pre-UFC opponents coming into her fights: 0-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 8-2 (Loss), 0-3, 0-0, 0-0. Amazingly, her 10 wins prior to joining the UFC came against opponents who had combined for two wins and six losses coming in. Six of those 10 opponents had never fought professionally before.
Since joining the UFC, Yanan lost to Mazany (3-4 in the UFC), and Inoue (1-1 in the UFC). Her win came against Mueller who is 1-3 in the UFC, and has lost her last three fights.
Joselyne Edwards
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Stepping into her UFC debut on relatively short notice after Bethe Correia dropped out of this fight, Edwards was announced as the replacement on January 7th—nine days before this event.
The Panamanian fighter Edwards comes in 9-2 as a pro, where she’s been fighting on the Central American regional scene. She did have one fight in the LFA in 2018, where she lost a five round split decision to wrestler Sarah Alpar—who you may remember got absolutely destroyed in her September UFC debut against a formerly unimpressive Jessica-Rose Clark. Edwards’ only other career loss was a 2015 R2 Armbar Submission in her second pro fight. She has eight career early finishes, five by KO and three by submission.
Edwards has only fought once in the last 26 months following her November 2018 LFA loss to Sarah Alpar, which was last July in a 28 second R1 KO of the much smaller 5’1” Pamela Gonzalez. Gonzalez came into the fight with a 3-4 record, with her three wins coming against 0-0, 0-1 and 0-0 opponents. Gonzalez did not look like a professional fighter and this win should be taken with a boulder size grain of salt.
While Edwards has won 8 of her last 9 fights, including five in the first round, those wins came against a lower level of competition than what she’ll face in the UFC. Here are the records of her opponents coming into her fights: 0-1, 0-1 (Loss), 0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 3-3, 8-3, 7-4 (Loss), and 3-4.
Judging by the faces of her opponents, Edwards does look to have decent power, but appears a bit unrefined with her striking. She also looks pretty hittable with not much of a striking defense. She appears to rely on her power to overwhelm her opponents with combinations of hooking punches.
Edwards is accustomed to being the bigger fighter in her past matches, which generally helps her to bully her way to victories. Now coming in as the shorter fighter, it will be interesting to see what effect that has. We do think she should still have the power advantage here though.
Fight Prediction:
Yanan will have a 2” height advantage, but Edwards will have a 1.5” reach advantage. It’s hard to get too excited about either one of these fighters, as they both have fought mostly questionable competition in the past. Obviously Yanan is the one with the UFC experience, but she’s coming off an extended layoff and hasn’t blown us away with anything she’s done. If this fight turns into a striking battle, which it likely will, we could see Edwards overpowering Yanan and potentially even getting a finish. However, if Yanan can avoid absorbing too many hooks from Edwards, she should be able to take advantage of Edwards’ over aggressiveness and poor striking defense. The line has already moved in Edwards’ favor, pushing this to coin flip. Despite 89% of Edwards’ wins coming early, as have 82% of Yanan’s victories, the oddsmakers have the ITD line set at +180. That seems like the play here opposed to guessing who wins (we’re guessing Yanan).
DFS Implications:
At $19 on FanDuel, Yanan seems like an easy fade, which is sure to lead to her being incredibly low owned. Going against a fighter making their UFC debut generally adds some hidden upside, but it’s hard to get too excited about playing Yanan after watching her tape. She did land 123 significant strikes in her last fight and notched a R1 submission win in the fight prior to that, so there are certainly reasons for optimism, at least on paper. She should carry a little more ownership on DraftKings where she’s relatively less expensive, but we still expect her to go pretty low owned. Treat her as a contrarian tournament play on both sites and a better value on DraftKings.
Based on the line movement, Edwards stands out as a value play on both DFS sites, but especially on FanDuel where she’s just $11. She opened the week as a +150 dog but by Wednesday this fight had become a pick ‘em. The field will likely jump all over this and drive Edwards’ ownership higher than it should be. As we mentioned above, Edwards lost a five round fight to Sarah Alpar, who got dominated and eventually KO’d in R3 of her UFC debut by Jessica-Rose Clark. Clark was coming off back to back losses and had been to 11 straight decisions. So if Clark is bad and still dominated Alpar, and Alpar beat Edwards, what does that say about Edwards? We understand that can be a flawed line of reasoning, but still.
One other thing to consider is that we’ve seen the late replacement female fighters making their UFC debuts really struggle recently. Here’s a list of the ones we could find (let us know if we missed anyone) over the last 6 months along with their results, beginning with the most recent:
Sam Hughes (R1 KO Loss)
Liliya Shakirova (R2 Submission Loss)
Stephanie Egger (R3 Decision Loss)
Sarah Alpar (R3 KO Loss)
Julija Stoliarenko (R3 Decision Loss)
Phillip Hawes
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)THIS FIGHT IS OFF!
Coming in red hot, Hawes has won his last five fights, all in the first round. That includes an 18 second KO victory in his October 2020 UFC debut. Hawes is 9-2 as a pro and if you told him judging is part of MMA, he’d have to take your word for it. All 11 of his fights have ended in the first two rounds and his last seven wins have all come in the first.
A ferocious striker, seven of his nine wins have come by KO. However, Hawes’ background is actually in wrestling, where he competed collegiately at Iowa State. He has two submission wins on his record—a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2014 R1 Armbar.
Both of Hawes’ career losses came in the second round. His first loss was a 2016 Guillotine Choke. He then got knocked out in his next fight via head kick at the hands of current UFC fighter Julian Marque. That second loss came in his first of two appearances on DWCS. After the loss, Hawes didn’t fight again for almost two years before coming back in mid 2019. Apparently he spent some time traveling the world, competing in grappling matches and training in Thailand. He’s also notably trained with Jon Jones in the past.
Nassourdine Imavov
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Also 9-2 as a pro and coming off a win in his UFC debut, Imavov enters on a six fight winning streak and also has a history of early finishes. His UFC debut, however, ended in a sloppy decision. Imavov landed an inadvertent headbutt and a vicious knee to the groin in the first round of that fight, which looked to slow his opponent Jordan Williams down from the very beginning. There was also another clash of heads in the third round that Williams took the worst of. Every time Williams shot for a takedown in that fight, Imavov looked for a Guillotine Choke Submission and looked close to completing it at times.
Imavov is seven years younger than Hawes and has never been knocked out. The only time he’s been finished early was a R1 Guillotine Choke submission in his first pro fight back in 2016. His only other pro loss came in a 2017 decision. He has seven R1 wins with three KOs and four submissions. However, two of those R1 submission wins came in his first three pro fights. In his last six wins, he has two KOs, two submissions and two decisions.
Prior to joining the UFC, he wasn’t fighting the toughest competition (or the worst), but we’ve yet to see him finish anyone of UFC caliber. Here are the records coming into his fights of his opponents that he finished on the regional scene: 0-0, 5-3, 3-0, 0-0, 1-2, 6-5, and 9-1.
After his last fight, Imavov said that Williams hits harder than he had expected. Maybe he was just paying him lip service, but if he thinks Williams hits hard, just wait until he’s introduced to Hawes. We don’t think Imavov has faced anyone with this sort of power yet in his career, so it will be interesting to see how his chin holds up.
Fight Prediction:
Imavov will have a 3” height advantage, but Hawes will have a 2” reach advantage. Hawes definitely looks like the more powerful and explosive fighter. This will just be Imavov’s third pro fight at 185 lb, after he’s spent the majority of his career fighting at 170 lb. Hawes on the other hand has fought his entire career at 185 lb and even fought an exhibition bout at 205 lb against Andrew Sanchez on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016.
Hawes has been a wrecking ball in the first round, but has lost his last two fights that have made it beyond that. And we’ve also never seen what he looks like in the second half of a fight. Based on the unknown alone you could argue that Imavov has a chance if he can survive Hawes’ initial onslaught. With that said, Imavov has been a bit of a bipolar fighter as well, with all of his fights either ending in the first round or going to the judges. Imavov opened the week as a +130 dog but the line was slowly bet down to +110 by mid week. In his last fight, he opened as a +135 dog and had the line flip to -122 by lock. So it will be interesting to keep an eye on things.
Hawes has the second highest implied R1 win chances on the slate after Buckley, and this fight is the most likely on the slate to end early according to the oddsmakers. We tend to agree, and think Hawes has a solid shot to win this one in the first round. It’s far from a lock though, and if the fight slips into the second things get a little dicey. While Hawes has been extremely impressive on offense, he’s shown a vulnerable defense.
Some books have “Hawes Wins by Submission” as high as +2500, which seems way too high considering Hawes was a college wrestler and 2 of his 9 wins have come by submission. Also, Imavov has never been knocked out but has previously been submitted.
DFS Implications:
We think both of these guys will be popular in DFS and this will be an important spot to get right, so choose wisely: Hawes, Imavov, or contrarian fade.
So far in Hawes’ career, someone would have put up a big score in every fight he’s ever been part of, and Hawes seems like a prime candidate to benefit from DraftKings’ new scoring system that gives a bonus for finishes in the first 60 seconds. Based on his scoring upside, Hawes seems fairly priced on both DFS sites, despite the line moving against him. While there’s no guarantee he gets the win, if he does, we think there’s a great chance he ends up in optimal lineups. It makes sense to have a solid amount of exposure to Hawes.
Similar to Hawes, if Imavov wins, there’s a good chance it comes early and at his price he would be a near lock to end up in optimal lineups. He also successfully defended all three of Williams’ takedown attempts in his UFC debut, so there’s the possibility that further boosts his FanDuel score if Hawes looks to take the fight to the ground. You’ll definitely want some hedge exposure to Imavov as well.
We don’t feel confident enough in either of these two fighters to fully fade the other, and we’re looking to make stands elsewhere. In times like these, you can look to the lines for guidance. Hawes’ ITD line is +125 (42%), while Imavov’s is +230 (28%). Those seem like reasonable ceilings for exposure targets based on the likelihood this ends early.
Dusko Todorovic
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Undefeated as a pro, 9 of Dusko’s 10 wins have come early with six KOs and three submissions. The only time he’s been introduced to the judges was in his August 2019 DWCS decision win over Teddy Ash. Even in decisions Dusko makes an impact. He landed 213 total strikes, 102 significant strikes and had 9:41 of control time in that fight. With the new DraftKings scoring, that would have been good for 110.43 points. Dusko notably went 0 for 14 on takedowns in that fight while he racked up control time against the cage.
Prior to that win, Dusko had eight straight early victories, including six in R1 and two in R2. He notably knocked out Michel Pereira in his previous fight before going on DWCS, which is the only time Pereira has ever been knocked out in 36 pro fights.
In his October 2020 UFC debut, Todorovic got the TKO over Dequan Townsend through heavy ground and pound. Townsend had impressively only been knocked out once prior in 32 pro fights.
Todorovic’s hands down striking defense is dependent on exceptional footwork and elusive head and body movement to avoid taking damage. He does also have a solid chin, which could be why he feels comfortable leaving it exposed so often. This tactic seems to help draw opponents in and increase the pace of his fights. Todorovic throws a high amount of volume with heavy strikes and is an exciting fighter to watch.
"Two undefeated, aggressive prospects. This is a fight you have to see!"
-Dana White on Todorovic vs. Soriano
Punahele Soriano
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Also undefeated as a pro, six of Soriano’s seven pro wins have come in R1 with four KOs and two submissions. Both of his submission wins were by Rear-Naked Choke. His lone decision win came on DWCS in 2019 against Jamie Pickett, who’s never been knocked out, including in his recent UFC debut against a violent Tafon Nchukwi who had knocked out his previous four opponents. Soriano was visibly shaken and disappointed that he didn’t get the finish on DWCS and promised to do better in the future. Despite ending his DWCS fight in a dreaded decision, Soriano still got his shot in the UFC after that match—possibly because he apologized.
In his UFC debut, Soriano was gifted a suspect Oskar Piechota who had been finished early in each of his previous two UFC fights, and now his last four to date. Soriano landed a R1 KO win in the December 2019 bout, but now hasn't fought in 13 months. He had two fights scheduled in 2020—3/28 vs. Eric Spicely and 5/16 vs. Anthony Hernandez—but was forced to withdraw from both of them due to apparent injuries.
Soriano is a violent striker and was also an All-American collegiate wrestler, so he has his wrestling to fall back on when things get hairy. Despite having less than four years of pro experience, the Hawaiian fighter has notably trained with Dan Ige in the past. His limited pro experience is definitely something to consider however. He has just seven pro fights to his name, and two of those came against opponents with one combined win.
Fight Prediction:
Todorovic will have a 2” height and reach advantage in this fight. In addition to having more fights and years of experience as a pro, Todorovic appears to have faced tougher competition than Soriano, who is actually two years older than Todorovic. While Soriano has solid knock out power in addition to his wrestling ability, we think he ends up getting dusted by Dusko. Todorovic’s elite elusiveness, granite chin, violent power, and overall composure seem like the perfect skill set to combat Soriano’s heavy hands. We think Todorovic will patiently wait for an opening and then catch Soriano with a flurry of destructive strikes. We’ve yet to see Soriano’s chin be tested at the UFC level, but we should learn a lot about it here. We like Todorovic to finish this one in the first two rounds.
DFS Implications:
Soriano’s undefeated record, flawless UFC debut and affordable price tag are surely going to drive up his ownership. He scored a panty dropping 127.6 DraftKings points in his debut, and the majority of people won’t pay attention to the fact that it came in a dream matchup. We think he ends up being one of the most popular underdogs on the slate. His perceived value and theoretical upside are likely too great to completely fade him, but we think the play here is definitely to be well under the field. Just keep in mind, if he does win, he’ll very likely end up in optimal lineups.
We think Todorovic has a bright future in the UFC and will really make a name for himself in 2021. A key component of that will be getting a finish over a fellow undefeated prospect on Saturday. Todorovic’s pricing doesn’t match his upside on either DFS site, but he’s especially underpriced on DraftKings. Obviously his opponent has a lot to do with that, as this is far from a slam dunk matchup, however, we think that’s a good thing from a DFS perspective. If Todorovic was going against some trash can they rolled off the street, he would be the most expensive fighter on the slate and end up being 50%+ owned. Because he’s paired up against another high-upside fighter with no warts on his record, we get to play Todorovic at a slightly more sustainable level of ownership and a lower price tag. Todorovic is our favorite fighter on the slate for both DFS sites.
Joaquin Buckley
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Fighting for the fifth time in the last six months, Buckley got his shot in the UFC following first and and second round KO wins in the LFA in 2019 and 2020. He ended up fighting Kevin Holland in his UFC debut, just a week after his July R2 LFA KO victory. Holland had originally been scheduled to fight the week before but Trevin Giles infamously fainted just before the walk out.
Holland had a massive 7” height advantage and 8” reach advantage over Buckley, to go along with his years of UFC experience. Buckley, on the other hand, came into the fight with what he described as “no plan”. With the deck stacked against him, Buckley still landed a number of violent strikes, but Holland ate them all with a smile. Holland showed great patience picking his spots and eventually knocked Buckley out in the third round with a stiff right hand.
Buckley bounced back two months later with the knockout of the year against formerly undefeated up-and-comer Impa Kasanganay. Despite being the underdog in that fight, Buckley seemed to take the lead from the beginning, as he landed several heavy shots before going full zero gravity on Kasanganay.
He followed that up with another convincing R2 KO over a second undefeated opponent in fraudulent Jordan Wright. Buckley nearly finished things in the first round, but Wright held on just long enough to make it to the second round, where he was then immediately knocked out.
Buckley’s last four wins have now all come by KO, with the last three occurring in R2 (the other was in R1). Of his 12 pro wins, nine have been by KO and three have come in decisions. His three pro losses have consisted of two KOs and one decision.
Notably, Buckley fought at 170 lb until 2019, when he moved up to 185 lb. He’s now 4-1 at Middleweight (185 lb), with all five fights ending in KOs. He notably weighed in at just 182.5 lb for his last fight, well under the limit, but it didn’t appear to make a difference. At just 5’10” his biggest challenge at Middleweight appears to be his height, but he had no trouble dispatching the 6’2” Wright in his last match.
Alessio Di Chirico
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Di Chirico comes in having dropped his last three fights, and with his last four ending in decisions. Of his eight UFC fights, six have now gone to the judges. His only early win was a 2017 R2 KO over Oluwale Bamgbose, who went 1-4 in the UFC before he got dropped from the organization following his third straight loss, which occured in the match against Di Chirico.
The only time Di Chirico has been finished early in his 17 pro fight career was a 2017 R1 Triangle Choke Submission against Eric Spicely. Di Chirico has never been knocked out and notably survived to see decisions against Julian Marquez (6 of 7 Career wins by KO), Kevin Holland (11 of 21 Career wins by KO), and Makhmud Muradov (16 of 24 Career wins by KO).
Holland dislocated his shoulder half way through the fight against Di Chirico, but still managed to win a decision with one hand essentially behind his back. Di Chirico showed a low fight IQ, failing to take advantage of the injury even in the slightest.
While Di Chirico does have five KOs and 4 submission wins on his record, eight of those nine wins came in his first eight pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 5-2, 0-0, 5-2-1, and 17-11-3. Four of those guys never fought again and one of them only fought once more in another loss. Alessio’s three UFC wins have come against: Garreth McLellan (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), Oluwale Bamgbose (1-4 UFC record, no longer in the UFC), and most recently Julian Marquez in a questionable split decision that one judge ruled 30-27 for Marquez.
Di Chirico is a tentative low-volume striker who could be fighting to stay in the UFC at this point. His 83% striking defense tends to suck the fun out of fights and leads to disappointing decisions. In his last fight, the ref was yelling at the fighters for more action and could be heard barking “let’s fight!” in the early to mid stages, and then pleading with them to “pick up the pace, engage” in a more dejected tone towards the end of the match.
Cummings did notably drop Di Chirico with a left kick to the chin fight at the final horn, which left Di Chirico stumbling and some confusion (at least in Cumming’s mind) as to whether the fight was called or if it was going to the judges.
Fight Prediction:
Di Chirico will have a 2” height advantage but Buckley will be the one with a 2” reach advantage. We expect Buckley to push the pace, while Di Chirico opts for as little action as possible. We think this fight ends in one of two ways—either with another Buckley KO victory or a Buckley decision win. It’s unlikely Buckley fills his entire UFC career with highlight finishes and this seems like a great spot for a let down decision. So while the oddsmakers think a Buckley KO win (+110) is the most likely outcome, we actually think Buckley Wins by Decision (+265) is how this one likely ends.
DFS Implications:
Buckley has seen his odds and DFS price tag increase in each of his four UFC fights. Now peaking as the most expensive fighter on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel, this looks like the optimal time to jump ship. There’s a fine line between genius and madness, and fading a fighter who you’re predicting to win AND has the highest R1 KO chances on the slate certainly falls into the gray area. We don’t think you should completely fade Buckley, however we do think being under the field is the play here.
Di Chirico is DFS antimatter. Despite going to six decisions in his eight UFC fights, neither he nor his opponents have ever landed more than 65 significant strikes in those matches. He’s the cheapest fighter on both DFS sites and for very good reason—only deranged lunatics, Italian nationalists and blackout drunks will click his name. For every dollar of entry fees that include Di Chirico in your lineup you should be charged two, as you clearly have no regard for money and are just here to donate.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
12th UFC Fight (9-2)Ponzinibbio was originally scheduled to fight Muslim Salikhov in this match before Salikhov withdrew due to ongoing COVID symptoms. Jingliang stepped in on relatively short notice as he was announced as the replacement on January 4th.
Ponzinibbio has won his last seven fights (4 KOs & 3 Decisions), but hasn’t stepped into the Octagon since November 2018 when he knocked out Neil Magny in R4 of their main event. Of his 27 career wins, 21 have come early (15 KOs & 6 submissions). He impressively has 14 R1 finishes in those 21 early wins. His last submission win came all the way back in 2012 just before joining the UFC, and he seems more reliant on knocking opponents out to get finishes at the UFC level.
Since joining the UFC in 2013, Ponzinibbio has lost just two of his 11 fights. He lost a decision in his UFC debut against Ryan LaFlare, and then lost his fourth UFC in 2015 against Lorenz Larkin by way of R2 KO. His only other career loss was a 2011 R1 KO prior to joining the UFC. In his nine UFC wins he has five KO’s (including four in R1) to go along with four decisions. He’s notably the only person to ever knock out either Court McGee or Gunnar Nelson.
After beating Mike Perry in a 2017 decision, Ponzinibbio had been scheduled to fight Kamaru Usman in 2018, but was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury. Six months later he was matched up against Magny instead. After beating Magny, Ponzinibbio was set to face Robbie Lawler in 2019, but was forced to withdraw again, this time due to a staph infection. Now 26 months removed since his last fight, it will be interesting to see how much ring rust he has to knock off.
"It is the best Argentinian versus the best Chinese Welterweight in the world!"
-Dana White on Ponzinibbio vs. Jingliang
Li Jingliang
14th UFC Fight (9-4)Jingliang had been scheduled to fight Dwight Grant on December 12th before Grant tested positive for COVID three days before the event. Unable to find a short notice replacement on that slate, Jingliang had to wait a month for a spot to open up.
Coming off a decision loss to Neil Magny, Jingliang has still won 7 of his last 9 fights after starting his UFC career off going 2-2. Jingliang is 17-6 as a pro, but has only been finished early once, which was a 2015 R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission. He’s never been knocked out. His nine UFC wins have consisted of three decisions and six KOs. He does have five submission wins on his record, four by Guillotine and one by “Punches” in his first pro fight, but those all came prior to joining the UFC.
Jingliang’s last 5 fights and 6 of his last 7 have made it to the third round, as have 14 of his 23 pro fights. The one exception over those seven was a R1 KO win in 2017. Jingliang seems like a grinder and has never lost two fights in a row. His last two wins both came by R3 KO.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 6’0” tall, but Ponzinibbio will have a 2” reach advantage. For what it’s worth, Ponzinibbio beat Neil Magny and Nordine Taleb, both of whom defeated Jingliang in decisions. Ponzinibbio opened as the biggest favorite on the slate and we’ve just seen the line get wider from there. However, we think it’s too wide and could see Jingliang winning this one. Obviously it’s not the most likely scenario, but betting Jingliang wins by KO at +580 and wins by R3 KO at +2700 seem like the value bets. We think this fight most likely ends with either a Ponzinibbio decision win or a Jingliang KO victory, but it’s also within the realm of possibility that Ponzinibbio makes us look foolish for doubting him.
DFS Implications:
In his last four decisions, Ponzinibbio has scored 90, 67, 54, and 57 DraftKings points. While he landed a still-not-impressive 79 and 78 significant strikes in his last two fights, he had previously never landed more than 58 significant strikes in his prior nine UFC fights. When you combine that with the fact that he’s failed to land a takedown in 9 of his 11 fights, it’s clear that he will need an early finish to score well in DFS.
Early in the week, the oddsmakers set Ponzinibbio’s ITD line at +140, implying a 39% chance he gets it done. His R1 win line is set at +325, implying a 22% chance. All of his UFC fights that have scored well have been R1 finishes—we’ve yet to see him finish a fight in the second round at the UFC level. With an opening moneyline of -275, Ponzinibbio started the week as the biggest favorite on the slate and is the most expensive fighter on FanDuel and second most expensive on DraftKings. We think he will have a tough time paying off at that price on either site unless he gets another R1 finish here.
Priced at just $6,900 on DraftKings and $9 on FanDuel, Jingliang seems like a solid value play on both sites. If he wins, he has a good chance to put up a decent score with two-thirds of his UFC victories coming by KO. He also gets an opponent coming off a long layoff, which adds some additional reason for optimism in Jingliang and uncertainty with Ponzinibbio, who should be pretty popular on the slate, which makes Jingliang a solid leverage play.
Carlos Condit
18th UFC Fight (8-9)After losing five fights in a row from 2016-2018, Condit didn’t fight for almost two years before bouncing back with a decision win this past October against Court McGee. Condit had been scheduled to fight Mickey Gall in December 2019, but was forced to withdraw from the match due to a detached retina.
In his last 11 fights, Condit has gone just 3-8. Other than his recent decision victory, his only other two wins over that period were a 2015 R2 KO against Thiago Alves, and a 2013 R4 KO versus Martin Kampmann. The eight losses consisted of four decisions (including two 5 rounders), three submissions (Kimura, Guillotine Choke & Rear-Naked Choke), and one “KO” by leg kick.
Condit has just one official KO loss on his 44 pro fight record. That “knockout” came when Condit appeared to suffer a freak knee injury in his 2015 match against Tyron Woodley. Condit looked to hurt his right knee as he got taken down by Woodley early in the second round. After getting stood back up by the ref, Woodley kicked Condit in the left, uninjured knee causing Condit to pick up his left leg and and put all of his weight on his injured right knee. The force of Woodley’s kick also caused Condit’s body to rotate on his bad knee. Condit spun to the mat in agony and the fight was immediately stopped. It was later confirmed that Condit suffered a torn ACL and partially torn meniscus.
The injury caused Condit to miss 14 months of action before he returned with a R2 KO win over Thiago Alves in 2015. For what it’s worth, Alves went on to lose 5 of his next 7 fights after that. Following the win over Alves, Condit lost 5 in a row before winning a decision over Court McGee most recently. The losses came against Robbie Lawler (Decision), Demian Maia (R1 Rear-Naked Choke), Neil Magny (Decision), Alex Oliveira (R2 Guillotine Choke) and Michael Chiesa (R2 Kimura).
While Condit has struggled to do much over the last five years, he has a history of finishing fights early. After a series of tough matchups, it looks like he finally gets a favorable one here against a 40-year-old Matt Brown.
Matt Brown
27th UFC Fight (15-11)Coming off a R2 KO loss against Miguel Baeza last May, Brown appeared to be leading with his chin as he aggressively hunted for a KO. He was able to stumble Baeza at one point in the first round, but his reckless style quickly caught up with him as he got knocked down late in the first before getting put down for good in the second. Intent on closing the distance, Brown consistently looked to land big shots from the outside, while offering heavy right elbows from the clinch.
His last five fights have all ended with KO’s and his last seven have ended early. While Brown does have KO wins in two of his last three fights, those came against washed up fighters in Ben Saunders and Diego Sanchez. Brown is 2-4 in his last six fights and 3-6 in his last nine.
Prior to 2016, he had never been knocked out as a pro, but since then he’s been knocked out three times. He did have 10 submission losses prior to that, although only one of those came in the last nine years—which was a 2016 Rear-Naked Choke against Demian Maia. In total, 13 of his 17 career losses have come early. His four decision losses came in 2006, 2008, 2014 and 2015.
On the other side of things for him, 20 of his 22 career wins have also come early. His only two decision wins were a 2011 three round win over John Howard and a 2012 three round decision win over Stephen Thompson. Of his 20 early wins, 14 have come by KO and 6 have been by submission. However, he’s only had one submission win since 2008, which was a 2015 R1 Guillotine Choke against Time Means.
Fight Prediction:
Condit will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach. While Matt Brown seems to still have the power to knock opponents out, it appears he no longer has the speed and reflexes to protect himself from getting dropped. We think Condit should be able to take advantage of this and like his chances to get his first early finish since 2015. We like Condit ITD at +255, and apparently we’re not the only ones as that line continues to be bet down.
DFS Implications:
While Condit’s DraftKings statsheet and price are unlikely to get people excited about playing him, 5 of his last 7 wins have come early and he gets a high-upside matchup here. Of concern, he only has three takedowns in his last 15 fights, and just one in his last six. When you combine that with his relatively low striking volume, you can see he’s entirely reliant on early finishes to score well. Early in the week, the oddsmakers had his ITD line set at +255, implying he has about a 26% chance of getting the early victory. We think that line is a little wide and his chances are actually higher, but that gives you a rough idea for his success rate. We also believe that he’ll be owned at a lower percentage in DFS both compared to his ITD chances and to his opponent Brown. This sets up as a good leverage spot in DFS.
Brown has landed just three takedowns in his last eight fights and shares similarly low striking volume to Condit. So he’s also entirely reliant on an early finish to do well—something he’s achieved in his last eight wins. Brown is one of those guys where if he does win, it’s likely to be high scoring and end up in optimal lineups. That’s generally exactly what we’re looking for, especially in cheap underdogs. However, we think the field will notice that as well and he’ll likely be fairly heavily owned. Taking an early look at his ITD line, it’s set at +310, implying just a 23% chance he finishes this fight early. While we mentioned that Condit will be less owned than his chances of landing a finish, we think Brown will be more owned than his chances. The sharp play appears to be going with Condit here, but if Brown gets the early finish in this one he’ll almost certainly make it into the optimal.
Both of these fighters are relatively cheaper on FanDuel compared to DraftKings. While Condit is the fifth cheapest favorite on DraftKings, he’s actually the cheapest favorite on FanDuel. Because of that, his FanDuel ownership should be much higher. So while he’s more of a contrarian leverage play on DraftKings, he should be decently owned as a value play on FanDuel. We like him on both sites, just keep in mind he won’t be nearly as useful in differentiating your lineup on FanDuel, but he will provide some solid salary relief.
Max Holloway
24th UFC Fight (17-6)After turning pro at just 18 years old in 2010, Holloway won his first four professional fights before getting signed by the UFC in 2012. In his first UFC fight, the 20-year-old Holloway was matched up against then 23-year-old Dustin Poirier, who was 3-0 in the UFC at the time and 11-1 as a pro. Poirier submitted Holloway with a Triangle Armbar a few minutes into the first round, in what remains the only time Holloway has ever been finished early in his career.
Holloway bounced back from the loss with three straight wins before suffering back to back three round decision losses in 2013 at the hands of Dennis Bermudez and Conor McGregor.
Following the pair of losses, Holloway rattled off a historic 13 straight wins, including a 2016 KO win over Anthony Pettis for the vacant Featherweight Belt. Holloway went on to successfully defend the belt in his next three fights with two KO wins against Jose Aldo followed by KO victory over Brian Ortega.
Holloway landed an insane 290 significant strikes in 20 minutes of action against Ortega (14.5 SS/min) and has outlanded his opponents 1208-873 in significant strikes over the course of his last eight fights.
Following the win against Ortega, Holloway attempted to move up a weight class to go after the vacant Lightweight Belt. That marked Holloway’s first UFC fight at Lightweight in what would be a rematch against Dustin Poirier. Clearly the more powerful fighter, Poirier went on to beat Holloway in a decision, claiming the belt for himself.
Holloway then dropped back down to Featherweight where he defended his belt for the fourth and final time, in a 2019 decision win over Frankie Edgar.
Five months after the win, Holloway lost a decision to Alexander Volkanovski, who was able to consistently attack the legs of Holloway, leaving him in a compromised state. Holloway was granted a rematch this past July, where he lost a controversial split decision, in a fight he appeared to have won.
While 10 of Holloway’s 21 career wins have come by KO, his last four fights have all ended in five round decisions. He tends to wear on his opponents and win the war of attrition, opposed to knocking opponents out with power punches. Holloway currently holds the record for the most strikes landed in a fight in UFC history (307 against Ortega), the most wins in the UFC Featherweight Division (16), the most KO wins in the Featherweight Division (8), and the longest winning streak in the Featherweight division (14). His last four KO wins all came in the third round or later and he only has two R1 wins in his UFC career.
His six career losses have come against Volkanovski (twice), Poirier (twice), Conor McGregor and Dennis Bermudez. After fighting in eight straight title fights, Holloway is still just 29 years old. He will now need to prove he deserves another shot at the belt by beating a fellow striker in Calvin Kattar. After losing three of his last four fights, a loss here would be a major setback for Holloway to get another title shot in the near future.
Interestingly, Holloway said in a recent interview with Ariel Helwani that he didn’t spar in training camp for this fight, just as didn’t for the last Volkanovski fight.
Calvin Kattar
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Despite joining the UFC five years after Holloway, Kattar is three years older and went pro three years before Holloway. Kattar joined the UFC in 2017 on an eight fight winning streak, with his last six ending in decisions. That streak continued with a decision win over Andre FIli in Kattar’s UFC debut. He followed up the win with a R3 KO against Shane Burgos—which is the only time Burgos has been finished early in his 15 pro fights to date.
Kattar lost a decision in his next match against Renato Carneiro, who was able to successfully attack Kattar’s lead leg and end his 10 fight winning streak. Kattar impressively bounced back with consecutive R1 KO wins over Chris Fishgold and Ricardo Lamas, showing his explosive knockout power.
Following the pair of early wins, Kattar lost a decision to Zabit Magomedsharipov, but then bounced back with another KO victory, this time in the second round against an overweight Jeremy Stephens. Kattar did a good job of attacking the lead leg of Stephens in that fight, which could be a wise approach against Holloway, given the success that Volkanovski had attacking Holloway’s lead leg in their first fight.
Kattar suffered a nose injury in the victory over Stephens that looked like it continued to bother him in his most recent match against Dan Ige. Nevertheless, in Kattar’s first five round fight in the UFC, he beat Ige in a decision and continued to climb the ranks.
With exceptional boxing skills, Kattar is a power puncher who seamlessly stitches together dangerous combinations. With just three takedowns in eight UFC fights—and two of those coming in his UFC debut—it’s unlikely he’ll look to take this fight to the mat unless he finds himself in a desperate situation.
Fight Prediction:
At 5’11”, Holloway is often the taller fighter in his Featherweight matches, however Kattar is also 5’11” and will have a 3” reach advantage in this fight. Kattar will be the more powerful striker in this fight, but Holloway throws more volume. Holloway has never been knocked out, and as we mentioned previously his only submission loss came in his UFC debut against Dustin Poirier. Kattar has similarly never been knocked out, and has also only been submitted once in his career— which came all the way back in 2008 in just his fourth pro fight.
This fight sets up as a high-volume brawl that most likely ends in a decision. We give the edge to Holloway based on his experience and movement, but if the judging in 2021 is anything like 2020, you never know who will get the nod. We think Holloway wins by decision at +145 and Kattar wins by decision at +300 are both better bets than betting the money lines of Holloway at -150 or Kattar at +130.
With that said, if the fight were to end early we think Kattar has the better shot at an early finish. Likely still on tilt after seeing the decision not go his way in his last fight, it’s possible Holloway pushes a little too hard and walks into something he can’t walk away from.
DFS Implications:
In his last four fights, Holloway has struggled to score well in DFS. Obviously it doesn’t help that he lost three of the four, but even if the last two decisions had gone his way he still would have only scored 73 and 84 DraftKings points respectively. He did score a whopping 165 DraftKings points in his 2018 R4 KO win over Brian Ortega, so it will be interesting to see how much weight the field puts on his recent struggles. We’re still expecting him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate and think we’ll see increased volume from his past few fights. We’re looking for him to come in with a chip on his shoulder after his recent snub by the judges. We think Holloway is a solid play on both DFS sites.
Kattar projects for a little less volume than Holloway and is coming off a five round decision win where he only scored 79 DraftKings points. Keep in mind that was against Dan Ige who came in only absorbing 3.13 significant strikes per minute while Holloway is up at 4.52 significant strikes per minute. So we’ll likely see Kattar land more strikes here in what we’re anticipating to be a pace up fight. If Kattar wins, he’ll almost certainly be in winning DraftKings lineups where he’s priced at just $7,300.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma