The Sheet

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Fighter Notes:

Fight #14

Lucie Pudilova

9th UFC Fight (3-5)

Pudilova is coming off her first UFC win since 2018 and only finish since 2016 (before she ever joined the UFC). She’s in her second stint with the organization and she originally joined the UFC in 2017 when she was just 22 years old. She lost a decision to Lina Lansberg in her debut, but bounced back with decision wins over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras. However, she then lost four straight, with decision losses to Irene Aldana, Liz Carmouche, and Justine Kish, and a submission loss to Antonina Shevchenko. At that point, the UFC cut ties with Pudilova following a January 2020 loss and she returned to fighting in the Czech Republic, where she fought to six straight decisions, winning five of them. The UFC then brought her back last August and Pudilova showed improved grappling as she landed a second round ground and pound TKO over Wu Yanan.

Now 14-7 as a pro, Pudilova has three wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and nine decisions. She’s never been knocked out, with her one early loss ending in a 2019 R2 submission against Antonina Shevchenko. Pudilova’s other six losses have all gone the distance. Seven of her last eight fights went the distance.

Overall, Pudilova had looked like a one-dimensional striker for her entire career but then randomly put on a grappling clinic in her recent return to the UFC. She has a solid jab and good speed/quickness, but she’s been inconsistent throughout her career and we never know what to expect from her. Pudilova landed more takedowns in her last fight (2) than she did in her previous seven UFC fights combined (1), which is encouraging for her grappling moving forward. Looking at her eight UFC fights, she’s landed three of her 11 takedown attempts (27.3% accuracy), while her opponents have gotten her down on seven of their 18 attempts (61.1% defense).

Joselyne Edwards

6th UFC Fight (3-2)

Coming off a pair of decision wins, Edwards has gone the distance in all five of her UFC fights, winning three of those. She outlanded her way to victory in all three of those wins, while she got dominated on the mat in both of the losses.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Edwards has five wins by KO, three by submission, and four decisions. She’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once, and has three decision losses, including a five-round split-decision loss to a terrible Sarah Alpar in a 2018 LFA Bantamweight title fight. Edwards’ submission game appears limited to looking for armbars off her back, which is how she finished her last two submission wins. All eight of her early wins have occurred in the first two rounds, with six ending in round one and two in round two. Three of her five knockouts occurred in under 60 seconds, but none of those were against opponents with winning records. After eight of her first nine pro fights ended early, six of her last seven have gone the distance. After fighting almost her entire career down at 135 lb, with one fight even at 125 lb, Edwards moved up to 145 lb for the first time in her second most recent match, but then dropped back down to 135 lb, where she missed weight by a pound and a half (but still won).

Overall, Edwards is basically a one-dimensional striker with a background in boxing, but she will look for armbar attempts off her back, which is really the extent of her grappling. After getting taken down 10 times on 19 attempts in her first three UFC fights (52.6%), Edwards was only taken down once on 11 attempts (9.1%) in her last two matches, although that can largely be explained by the level of competition she faced. She’s landed over 100 significant strikes in each of her last two fights, and averages 5.61 SSL/min and 3.65 SSA/min.

UPDATE:Edwards missed weight for the second straight fight!

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” but Edwards will have a 3” reach advantage.

Edwards should be able to out volume Pudilova on the feet, but the difference maker should be Pudilova’s newfound grappling attack, assuming she still goes to it. Edwards has been dominated on the mat in both of her UFC losses and Pudilova suddenly showed decent grappling in her last fight. While we’d be somewhat surprised if Pudilova was able to find another finish, she’s got a good shot at winning this fight through a combination of striking and grappling. However, if for some reason she opts not to grapple, then Edwards likely outlands her way to a decision win. With that said, give us Pudilova by decision in this one.

Our favorite bet here is Pudilova’s ML at -135.

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DFS Implications:

Pudilova apparently learned how to grapple in her time away from the UFC and after landing just one takedown in her first seven UFC fights, she landed two in her recent return to the organization and punctuated that with a second round ground and pound TKO that was good for 107 DraftKings points. She still needs to prove that wasn’t a fluke, but that raises her scoring potential moving forward and this sets up as a good matchup for her to find grappling success against Joselyne Edwards, who got dominated on the ground in both of her UFC losses. We should still temper expectations with Pudilova to some extent as she has still lost four of her last five UFC fights and only has one early win since 2016. However, if she can continue to find grappling success she’ll be an interesting DraftKings play even in fights where she doesn’t land a finish. The odds imply she has a 56% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.

Edwards landed over 100 significant strikes in each of her last two fights, and has shown a solid floor through sheer striking volume. However, we’ve also seen her get dominated on the mat twice in the UFC and any time she spends being controlled on the ground will limit her ability to put up the big striking total she needs to score well without a finish. While she showed finishing upside earlier in her career, all five of her UFC fights have gone the distance and she’s now missed weight for the second straight time. She appears content with patiently attacking opponents from the outside, relying heavily on kicks. That limits her finishing upside, but she does always have a shot at locking up an armbar when she gets taken down. The only problem is, that’s essentially her only grappling defense, and when it doesn’t work she ends up spending entire rounds on her back. At her cheap price tag, we could see Edwards serve as a value play even in a decision win, but she’ll need to keep the fight standing to do so. The odds imply she has a 44% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #13

Gaston Bolanos

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Making his UFC debut after spending his entire MMA career in Bellator, Bolanos is a year removed from a first round TKO win in his last Bellator fight. Prior to that, he didn’t compete at all in 2021 after losing a split decision in early 2020 and getting submitted in the first round in late 2019. Leading up to the pair of losses, Bolanos had knocked out four straight opponents after getting submitted in the second round of his second pro MMA fight back in 2017. A large reason for Bolanos’ recent inactivity has been that four of his last five booked fights have fallen through due to his opponents dropping out.

Now 6-3 as a pro, all six of Bolanos’ career wins have ended in knockouts, with five ending in round one and one in round two. He’s never been knocked out himself, but he has been submitted twice and lost a split decision after getting taken down repeatedly and controlled in his lone trip to the judges. Bolanos will be dropping down to 135 lb for the first time for his UFC debut after spending the rest of his MMA career at 145 lb.

Overall, Bolanos is a one-dimensional Muay Thai striker who has no grappling game whatsoever. He loves to throw spinning back elbows, probably a little too much, but is definitely dangerous with the technique. He’s got a lot of power in his punches and kicks as well, and it will be interesting to see how that translates down at 135 lb. While he looks like a serious threat to knock opponents out, unless he makes drastic improvements to his grappling he’ll have a tough time going very far in the UFC.

Aaron Phillips

4th UFC Fight (0-3)

Finally making his return to the Octagon, Phillips hasn’t fought since getting submitted by Jack Shore in July 2020. He’s had four fights scheduled since then, but all four were canceled. Phillips withdrew from two of those citing an injury and then an illness, and also had two opponents withdraw. Phillips originally made his UFC debut in 2014 and got smothered on the mat for three rounds as he was taken down five times and only landed 18 significant strikes in the fight. His second UFC fight went basically the same way as he got taken down six times and controlled for 13 minutes in another smothering decision loss. After getting dominated in those two matches he then got cut from the UFC, but took a fight outside of the organization against Chris Gutierrez, who broke Phillips’ leg. Following the injury, Phillips didn’t fight again for nearly three years before rattling off five straight wins in 2018 and 2019. Following the winning streak the UFC brought him back in 2020 to step in on short notice against Jack Shore, and just like his first two UFC fights, Phillips again got dominated on the ground, although this time he got submitted in the second round.

Now 12-4 as a pro, Phillips has six wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and four decision wins. He has one TKO loss, which came following the third round in a 2015 five-round fight against Chris Gutierrez, and one submission loss, which occurred in the second round of his last fight. His other two defeats both went the distance. Only 4 of his 12 pro wins came against opponents with winning records, so his victories should be taken with a grain of salt. Phillips has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb, but all of his UFC fights have been at 135 lb.

Overall, Phillips is a 4th degree Taekwondo black belt and a one-dimensional striker who has looked dreadful on the mat in all three of his UFC fights. He failed to land his only takedown attempt in those matches, while his opponents took him down 14 times on 25 attempts (44% defense). Phillips has spent so much time on his back that it’s hard to even evaluate his striking on the UFC level and his three years away also adds a lot of uncertainty.

Fight Prediction:

Phillips will have a 2” height and reach advantage.

Both of these two are pure strikers with atrocious grappling, but if the fight does somehow hit the mat whoever is in top position should have a major advantage. Bolanos looks like the better striker, but it’s hard to know where Phillips’ striking is even at these days considering he hasn’t fought in three years and got smothered on the mat in all three of his UFC fights. That time away also creates the opportunity for him to have improved his grappling, but it’s impossible to know what improvements he’s made over that time until we see him back inside the Octagon. Bolanos looks to have Phillips outgunned when it comes to power, but the fact that Bolanos is dropping down to 135 lb for the fight time does add some uncertainty to both his chin and cardio. So both fighters will have some question marks surrounding them, but we like Bolanos’ chances of knocking Phillips out in the first two rounds as long as the weight cut goes smoothly.

Our favorite bet here is “Gaston Bolanos ITD” at +110.

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DFS Implications:

Bolanos looks like he’ll be extremely matchup dependent moving forward, as he’s a solid striker, but a terrible grappler. So in matchups like this where he’s taking on another one-dimensional striker, he looks like a solid play. But anytime he takes on anyone with decent grappling we’ll be looking to fade him in the future. In terms of this matchup, Phillips has never been truly knocked out, but does have one TKO loss on his record when he broke his leg against Chris Gutierrez back in 2015. However, we’ve yet to see his chin really tested at the UFC level and we have no reason to think he’s especially durable. Bolanos loves to throw spinning back elbows and if he can connect cleanly on one of them we could see a highlight reel finish in a walk off knockout. At his high price tag we don’t see him coming close to returning value unless he knocks Phillips out, so he’s a pretty straightforward play. Outside of his nonexistent grappling, the one uncertainty with him will be the fact that he’s dropping down to 135 lb for the first time in his career. The odds imply he has a 63% chance to win, a 43% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

Phillips hasn’t fought in three years after getting submitted in the second round by Jack Shore. That was Phillips first fight back with the UFC after he got smothered on the mat in a pair of decisions back in 2014 before being cut. After getting dominated in all three of those fights on the ground, it’s no surprise that he’s never come close to scoring well, but we also haven’t seen him have a chance to compete in a striking battle yet. So between how his past fights have played out and his three years away, there’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding him coming into this next matchup against a pure striker. When you combine that with Bolanos dropping down a weight class as he makes his debut, there are several unknowns in play. When you combine that with Phillips’ very low projected ownership, it’s easy to look at him as a game theory play, despite the fact we have no reason to think he’s even a half decent fighter. The odds imply he has a 37% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #12

Bruna Brasil

1st UFC Fight (0-0)

Coming off a R2 head kick walk off KO win on DWCS, Brasil has won seven straight fights after starting her pro career just 1-2-1. While she more or less controlled her last fight and eventually landed a knockout, she did get taken down three times in the match and controlled for three minutes. Prior to that knockout, she won a decision after finishing two more opponents in the opening two rounds.

Now 8-2-1 as a pro, Brasil has three wins by KO/TKO, two by submission, and three decision victories. Both of her submission wins came by guillotine in the later rounds. Both of her losses ended in TKOs, with both of those ending in the first two rounds of her first four pro fights, including a R1 TKO loss in her 2014 pro debut to UFC fighter Ariane Carnelossi. Six of Brasil’s last eight fights have ended early, while she’s won the last three decisions she’s been to, after her first career decision ended in a draw.

Overall, Brasil is a former Brazilian kickboxing champion and relies heavily on her kicks in MMA. She does a good job of mixing up her target and will attack opponents with leg kicks, head kicks, and kicks up the middle. At 5’6” she’s got good size for the 115 lb division, which when combined with her kick-heavy approach can make it tough for opponents to find their range against her, often resulting in lower volume fights as she’s a pretty patient striker herself. She’s not entirely helpless when it comes to grappling and will occasionally mix in takedown attempts, but she definitely earns her keep on the feet. She will look for guillotines and armbars or leg locks off her back, but she’s not especially dangerous off her back.

Denise Gomes

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Looking to bounce back from a decision loss in her UFC debut against Loma Lookboonmee, Gomes came close to locking up multiple submissions in that fight, despite being known as a striker. That loss came on short notice just three and a half weeks after she secured a UFC contract with a decision win on DWCS. Prior to the decision win on DWCS, Gomes landed a pair of third round TKO wins in her two previous matches. However, she was losing the most recent of those up until the third round and actually got knocked down twice in round two by former UFC fighter Milana Dudieva, who has lost six of her last seven fights and isn’t an exceptional striker.

Now 6-2 as a pro, Gomes has four wins by KO and two decision victories. The only time she’s been finished was a 2017 R2 TKO in her pro debut. She bounced back with six straight wins before suffering the only other loss of her career in the decision in her recent short notice UFC debut. Her last two TKO wins both came in round three, after her previous two ended in the first two rounds. Her last five fights have all made it to round three and the only fight of her career to end in round one was her first pro win back in 2021 against an opponent fighting for the first and only time as a pro. Gomes made her pro debut at 135 lb in 2017, but after suffering her only career loss in a R2 knockout she dropped down to 125 lb for her next two fights. She then moved down to 115 lb for a fight in 2021, before moving back up to 125 lb for her next two matches. She dropped back down to 115 lb when she went on DWCS, where she has stayed in the UFC. All three of her 115 lb fights have gone the distance (2-1), while all four of her knockout wins came at 125 lb.

Overall, Gomes is an aggressive striker with a Muay Thai background, who showed the ability to threaten submissions in her recent debut. However, she’s struggled with being taken down, and between her DWCS appearance and recent UFC debut, she got taken five times on nine attempts. She also got taken down twice just before going on DWCS and that continues to be an area of weakness for her. However, in fights that stay on the feet she’ll gladly throw down in a brawl and did attempt six takedowns of her own in her last fight but failed to land any of them. If she continues to improve her grappling she could become a tough fighter to deal with and at just 23 years old she should be improving every time we see her.

Fight Prediction:

Brasil will have a 4” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. She’s also six years older than the 23-year-old Gomes.

This sets up primarily as a striking battle, but both fighters will occasionally mix in takedowns and neither of them has very good defensive grappling. That adds some uncertainty to the mix as they’re each capable of losing a round by being controlled on the mat. On the feet, Brasil will have a noticeable size advantage and will be looking to keep the fight at kicking range where she can dictate the action. However, Gomes is aggressive and likes to push forward and if she can get to the inside she should be able to make Brasil uncomfortable and land more strikes, while negating Brasil’s length. Whoever can control the range on the feet and/or land takedowns should win the fight and this feels closer to a coin flip than the opening odds suggested, so it’s no surprise the odds have moved in Gomes’ favor. Brasil is the more technical striker, but her more patient style could be her undoing if she finds herself trying to fight from behind. She’ll be looking for a cleaner fight and if Gomes can pressure her and make it ugly she’ll have a good shot at pulling off the upset. Both fighters have shown the ability to land knockouts, which is pretty rare at Strawweight, and they’ve each been knocked out themselves. They’ll also each look for occasional opportunistic submissions, making this a tougher spot to predict an exact outcome. However, the most likely result is that it ends in a close decision. While Brasil probably deserves to be the slight favorite based on her size and reach advantage, the potential for Gomes to outland her and/or take her down makes the plus money on Gomes’ side of things very intriguing and we’ll tentatively say Gomes pulls off the upset in a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “Gomes DEC” at +260.

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DFS Implications:

Brasil is a patient kickboxer who only occasionally mixes in takedowns. That will typically leave her reliant on landing finishes to score well and she rarely puts up huge striking totals. She throws a ton of kicks, trying to keep her opponents at range to utilize her size, which tends to slow fights down and make it hard for anyone to land many strikes. However, 7 of her 11 pro fights have ended early (5-2) and she’s coming off a late R2 KO win on DWCS that would have been good for 118 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel. While that was basically best case scenario for her as the finish came late in the second round and she tacked on two takedowns, it at least showed she’s capable of hitting a ceiling performance. Now she’ll face an aggressive striker who should be pushing the pace, which could result in Brasil landing more strikes than normal. However, it could also result in Brasil getting flustered and losing the fight, so it overall widens the range of potential outcomes. At her expensive price tag, Brasil could land a finish and still get priced out of winning lineups, and the most likely outcome is for this to go the distance, where we wouldn’t expect Brasil to score well in a decision. So there are lots of ways she fails to return value here, but to have any chance to succeed she’ll need to land a knockout. The odds imply she has a 59% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Gomes’ aggressive style looks favorable for DFS production in her fights, and she also showed the ability to threaten submissions in her recent short notice UFC debut. She’ll now have a full camp to prepare and we expect to see an improved version of her, especially when you consider she’s still just 23 years old. With that said, she has looked very prone to getting taken down, which is something she’ll need to clean up if she wants to last long in the UFC. We don’t know how Brasil will handle the pressure of making her UFC debut in front of a live crowd, but that has the potential to benefit Gomes if the moment proves to be too big for Brasil. At Gomes’ extremely cheap price tag she may not need to put up a huge score to end up in tournament winning lineups and she has seen a massive line move in her favor. While the line move turns her into a seemingly great value, that will also drive her ownership up some, so don’t expect her to be as low owned as she was the last time we saw her, when she was just 11% owned on DraftKings. The odds imply she has a 41% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #11

Daniel Zellhuber

2nd UFC Fight (0-1)

Zellhuber will be looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career, which came in a decision in his recent UFC debut against Trey Ogden. Zellhuber looked way too tentative in the fight, but in fairness, Ogden has made all of his UFC opponents look pretty pedestrian. A year before that loss, Zellhuber won a decision over a tough Lucas Almeida on DWCS. Prior to his win on DWCS, Zellhuber had landed five straight finishes, with the last three all ending in round one.

Now 12-1 as a pro, Zellhuber has seven wins by KO, two by submission, and three decisions. Both of his submission wins occurred in the first round, as did three of his KO victories. Three more of his knockouts occurred in round two, with the other ending in round three. He’s never been finished, with his only loss going the distance in his recent UFC debut.

Overall, Zellhuber is a tall, rangy fighter who’s a solid striker with dangerous kicks and also likes to look for leg locks on the mat. While he can typically rely on his striking to get opponents out of there, he’s also a BJJ black belt and is a well rounded fighter who can win fights both on the ground and the feet. He has the ability to put up big striking numbers, while mixing in takedown attempts and also has a solid takedown defense. Between his DWCS appearance and his UFC debut, he’s landed one of his two takedown attempts (50% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down once on nine opponent attempts (88.9% defense). He’s still just 23-years-old and should be improving all the time. He trains out of Xtreme Couture in Vegas, after growing up in Mexico City, where he previously had been training at elevation.

Lando Vannata

13th UFC Fight (4-6-2)

Moving back up to 155 lb after dropping down to 145 lb for his last two fights (1-1), Vannata said the cut was simply too hard on his body and was causing him to get injured, which resulted in him dropping out of his last booked matchup. It’s been a year since he last competed, which was when he got submitted by Charles Jourdain in the first round. Vannata has struggled with consistency throughout his career, and he’s never won two fights in a row in the UFC. However, he’s also never lost two in a row in his career and tends to bounce back from losses well.

Now 12-6-2 as a pro, Vannata has four wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and three decision victories. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted twice, and has four decision defeats. His first submission loss occurred in his 2016 UFC debut against Tony Ferguson, with the other coming in his last fight against Jourdain. In between those two early losses, Vannata fought to eight decisions (2-4-2), and also landed a pair of first round finishes in 2016 and 2019. Four of his last five and eight of his last 10 fights have gone the distance, with the other two ending in first round submissions (1-1).

Overall, Vannata is a bit of a wild man but he’s a well-rounded fighter who wrestled in college for a year at UT Chattanooga before dropping out to pursue MMA full time. In his 12 UFC fights, he’s landed 11 of his 26 takedown attempts (42.3% accuracy) and he’s attempted at least one takedown in 10 straight fights, only failing to land one in two of those matches and landing exactly one takedown in seven of them. The only time he’s landed more than one takedown was in a 2017 draw against Bobby Green, where Vannata went 4 for 5 on his attempts. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down on 16 of 51 opponent attempts (68.6% defense). He’s proven himself to be durable, and his chin’s never let him down, but we have seen him get his neck wrapped up a couple of times. He doesn’t offer a ton of finishing upside but will mix in spinning attacks, which is how he landed his lone UFC KO win back in 2016. It will be interesting to see how he looks moving back up to 155 lb, but it’s generally not a great sign when fighters bounce between two weight classes in their thirties. He claimed that he added on some additional muscle going into this fight, so he’ll be a guy to monitor at weigh-ins.

Fight Prediction:

Zellhuber will have a 4” height advantage and 6” reach advantage. He’s also eight years younger than the 31-year-old Vannata.

With Zellhuber stepping into his second UFC fight and coming off his first pro loss, in addition to Vannata moving back up to 155 lb, we have a lot of moving parts in this one. It remains to be seen how Vannata’s body will handle his second recent weight class change, but we generally see his fights end in close decisions, with occasional submissions sprinkled in. He’s never lost two fights in a row in his career, but he’s also just 2-3 in his last five matches and both of those wins came against opponents on multi-fight losing streaks who are no longer in the UFC. Zellhuber will have a massive height and reach advantage, which will make it more difficult for Vannata to find his range on the feet. That could force Vannata to wrestle more, which creates the potential for him to get submitted once again as Zellhuber is a BJJ black belt who has no problem looking to finish opponents on the mat. We expect to see a better performance from Zellhuber in his second Octagon appearance, but this definitely isn’t an easy matchup for him. The most likely outcome is for this to end in a close decision, but if it does end early look for it to come from a Zellhuber submission. We’ll say Zellhuber wins a decision.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -152.

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DFS Implications:

Zellhuber fought very tentatively in his recent UFC debut and may have been a bit wide-eyed as he stepped into the Octagon for the first time. He’s still just 23 years old and the hope will be that he looks more comfortable here. He’s got good size for the division and is a well-rounded fighter, so we’re not giving up on him yet, but he’ll need to show us a whole lot more in this fight than he did in his last one. Nine of his 12 career wins have come early, but now he’s facing a durable veteran in Lando Vannata, who’s never been knocked out. Zellhuber is a BJJ black belt so we could see him hand Vannata the third submission loss of his career, but a decision is more likely as 8 of Vannata’s last 10 fights have ended with the judges. While it’s not impossible that Zellhuber scores decently in a decision through a combination of striking and grappling, he’ll need a finish to really score well. The odds imply he has a 53% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Vannata rarely scores well and has only scored above 75 DraftKings points twice in his 12 UFC fights, but he also has just four wins since joining the organization. While his sometimes reckless fighting style makes for exciting fights, that generally doesn’t translate into big DFS scores barring an early finish, and he only has one of those in his last 10 matches. He did fight to a draw against Bobby Green in 2017 and still scored 75 DraftKings points. So if that decision had gone his way he would have put up a respectable 105 points. However, his two UFC decision wins scored just 70 and 68 points. The one way we see him scoring well in a decision is if he comes in with a really grappling-heavy gameplan and only once in his career has he landed more than a single takedown. Zellhuber has never been finished and has a massive size advantage, while Vannata is moving back up to 155 lb after dropping down to 145 lb for his last two matches. None of that is encouraging for Vannata’s chances of scoring well and we don’t have much interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 47% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #10

Gillian Robertson

14th UFC Fight (8-5)

Robertson is coming off a second round submission win over Mariya Agapova, but she definitely had to work to get it as Agapova tried to elbow her head off in the first round as Robertson looked for a takedown along the fence. Prior to that finish, Robertson lost a decision to JJ Aldrich and had dropped three of her previous four matches after starting off 6-2 in the UFC. In fairness to her, her other two recent losses came against Miranda Maverick and Taila Santos and all five of her UFC losses came against really tough opponents, with the previous two coming against Mayra Bueno Silva and Maycee Barber. While her last three losses all came in decisions, she got finished in the first round by Bueno Silva (armbar) and Maycee Barber (TKO). Seven of her eight UFC wins also ended early, with two ending in round one, four in round two, and one in round three. All but one of those finishes came by submission, while she also has one TKO via elbows on her record.

Now 11-7 as a pro, Robertson has one win by KO, eight submissions, and two decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (R1 2019), submitted once (R1 2018), and has five decision defeats. Her two pre-UFC decision losses also came against fighters who are now in the UFC, in Hannah Goldy in Robertson’s 2016 pro debut and Cynthia Calvillo in 2016. The loss against Goldy came at 115 lb and the loss to Calvillo was at a 120 lb Catchweight. Robertson fought mostly at 115 lb before joining the UFC, but she moved up to 125 lb when she went on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017 and stayed there up until now as she prepares to make her UFC Strawweight debut.

Overall, Robertson is a solid technical grappler, but doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of striking and can be overpowered on the mat by stronger opponents. She’s shown the ability to make the most of her one-dimensional grappling skillset and has generally capitalized when put in favorable matchups. She’s landed 21 takedowns on 51 attempts (41.2% accuracy) in her 13 UFC fights, landing at least one takedown in 11 of those fights and two or more in seven of them, but never more than three in a single fight. She lost both of the fights where she failed to land a takedown.

Piera Rodriguez

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Rodriguez kept her undefeated record intact with a decision win over Sam Hughes and has now gone the distance in three straight and four of her last five fights. Prior to the win over Hughes, Rodriguez won a decision over Kay Hansen in her UFC debut, after also winning a decision on DWCS just before that. All nine of her pro fights have seen the second round, with her last five making it to round three. She started her career off with four straight KO/TKO wins, but her only finish in her last five fights was a 2021 R5 TKO in the LFA.

Still undefeated with a 9-0 pro record, Rodriguez has five wins by KO/TKO and four decisions. Four of those five finishes came in her first four pro fights and only one of those four was against an opponent with a winning record. Three of her five finishes came in round two, one ended in round three, and the other was stopped in round five.

Overall, Rodriguez has more power than your typical Strawweight, but she’s been pretty patient in the UFC and hasn’t been pushing for finishes. She frequently looks for takedowns, although she doesn’t always have the best accuracy when it comes to landing them, and hasn’t shown any sort of submission game. Rodriguez trains at Black House MMA with Mackenzie Dern, but Rodriguez is only a BJJ blue belt and she’s generally more so looking for ground and pound on the mat. Between her two UFC fights and her DWCS appearance, she’s landed 11 of her 28 takedown attempts (39.3% accuracy), while she’s only been taken down twice on nine opponent attempts (77.8% defense).

Fight Prediction:

Robertson will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters have a 63” reach.

This fight will likely come down to how Rodriguez’s 77% takedown defense holds up, as Robertson always looks to get fights to the mat, and once she does she typically locks up a submission. However, when she’s unable to land takedowns, Robertson struggles mightily on the feet and has never won a UFC fight where she failed to land a takedown. The fact that Robertson is moving down a weight class adds some uncertainty in this fight, but Rodriguez got taken down twice by Kay Hansen and we like Robertson’s chances of getting this fight to the ground and finding a submission in the first two rounds.

Our favorite bet here is “Robertson R1 or R2 SUB” at +360.

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DFS Implications:

Robertson has averaged 101 DraftKings points in her eight UFC wins, scoring at least 92 points in all of those. However, five of those eight wins still scored in the 90’s, so she’s generally not putting up massive scores even though she consistently scores well when she wins. She’ll now be dropping down to 115 lb for the first time in the UFC, which adds some uncertainty to how she’ll look. She was always undersized at 125 lb, so the drop should resolve that issue and potentially help her to be more dominant in her wrestling. However, it could also take a toll on her chin or cardio and it remains to be seen how her body will handle the change. While we often see fighters make weight changes out of desperation, this seems like a more thought out switch that looks like a smart move, but only time will tell. Robertson doesn’t get an easy matchup in her first Strawweight fight as she faces an undefeated fighter with a 77% takedown defense, but she’s so dangerous on the mat that we still like her chances of finding a submission, even if it’s unlikely to come easy. As the cheapest favorite on the slate, even a grappling-heavy decision win would give her a really good shot at ending up in the winning DraftKings lineup, but she’ll need a finish to be useful on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Rodriguez has yet to put up any huge scores but has been able to score decently through a combination of takedowns and striking in her first two UFC fights. However, she’s less likely to want to shoot for takedowns in this matchup and we haven’t seen enough striking volume from her to score well through striking alone. That will leave her more reliant on landing a knockout to score well and she’s been pretty tentative in her first two UFC fights. Robertson has only been knocked out once in her career, but she is dropping down a weight class, which has the potential to compromise her chin. That raises Rodriguez’s appeal to some extent, but she still looks like a KO or bust option in a tough matchup where she’ll constantly be having to worry about getting taken down and submitted. The odds imply she has a 45% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #9

Zak Cummings

14th UFC Fight (9-4)

Mounting a comeback just before he prepares to retire, Cummings hasn’t competed in almost three years after winning a decision over Alessio Di Chirico in August 2020. He had been scheduled to fight Sam Alvey in 2021, but Cummings withdrew and hasn’t had a fight booked since. He suffered a bad back injury over his time away that left him bedridden as he got all the way up to 250 lb. He’s slowly been working to get back from the injury and he owns his own gym in Kansas City, so once he heard about this card he felt like he needed to get one last fight in front of his home crowd. He said he wanted to prove to himself and his daughter he could still do it, but it sounds like this will be his retirement fight. He left that slightly open ended but said at most there would be one more fight after this to fight out his contract, but it really seems like we’ll see him retire at the end of this one.

Now 24-7 as a pro, Cummings has five wins by KO/TKO, 12 submissions, and seven decision victories. He’s never been knocked out but he’s been submitted twice, and has five decision losses. After starting at 170 lb in the UFC, Cummings moved up to 185 lb in 2018, and will now be going all the way up to 205 lb for this fight. He had one fight at 205 lb all the way back in 2011, which he lost by decision.

Overall, the 38-year-old Cummings is a longtime UFC veteran who we thought retired years ago. He’s a second degree BJJ black belt who had spent some time at Glory MMA and also trains at Factory X, in addition to his own gym. His last nine fights have all either gone the distance (3-3) or ended in submissions (3-0), and the only time he’s ever knocked anyone out in the UFC was in 2015. He’s a low-volume striker who only averages 2.58 SSL/min and 2.83 SSA/min and hasn’t landed a takedown in his last seven fights. Who knows what he has left in the tank, but our expectations are very low.

Ed Herman

26th UFC Fight (13-11, NC)

Twenty months removed from a decision loss to Alonzo Menifield, Herman has actually won three of his last four fights, but two of those wins were back in 2019 and he’s now 42 years old. He had been scheduled to fight Maxim Grishin in 2022, but ended up withdrawing and hasn’t had anything booked since. Herman should have lost his second most recent fight after he got dropped with a knee to the body, but the ref paused the action thinking it was a low blow and then Herman used the time to recover and ultimately finished the fight with a kimura in the third round.

Now 26-15 as a pro, Herman has seven wins by KO/TKO, 14 submissions, and five decision wins. He’s been knocked out three times, has six submission losses, and six more decision defeats. He moved up from 185 lb to 205 lb in 2016, where he’s since stayed.

Herman is a decade past his prime but refuses to retire, although he may not have a choice after this fight. It sounds like this is the final fight on his contract and we’d be shocked if the UFC re-signed him. He’s an old era guy who relied on his durability to grind out wins and joined the UFC all the way back in 2006. He failed to land a takedown in four of his last five fights, and only averages 3.28 SSL/min and 3.52 SSA/min. Apparently in his time away he opened his own gym and got more into coaching, and it seems like he’s barely clinging to his fighting days. This looks like the rare double retirement fight.

Fight Prediction:

Herman will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage, while Cummings is four years younger than the 42-year-old Herman.

Not to be overly harsh on these two aging fighters who both seem like very nice guys, but this is the type of fight the UFC should be paying us to watch, as both of these two should have retired years ago. We expect to see a sloppy, slow-paced, plodding striking battle. Cummings has won two of the last three decisions he’s been to and will have the home crowd behind him, while Herman is just 1-3 in his last four decisions. Neither guy lands much striking volume or many takedowns, which likely won’t leave much differentiating the two at the end of the match. It’s not impossible that Cumming submits Herman, but it is unlikely considering how seldom either of them land a takedown. We like this to end in a gross/close decision that may simply get determined by a crowd vote. Therefore we’ll go with the home guy in Cummings, but we have exactly zero confidence in either of these two and they’re both drowning in red flags and we don’t have any desire in touching Cumming’s moneyline.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -150.

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DFS Implications:

Cummings has been a R1 finish or bust fighter throughout his career and has only averaged 71 DraftKings points in his four UFC decision wins. He also scored just 71 points in a 2019 third round submission and only 85 points in a 2016 second round submission. His last first round finish was in 2017 when he was still competing down at 170 lb, and the current Zak Cummings looks like he ate the guy that landed that finish. Hilariously priced as the most expensive fighter on the card, the only two things Cummings has going for him are that no one will want to play him and he’s facing a 42-year-old opponent who also should have retired years ago. So if Cummings can somehow land a first round finish AND outscore all of the other high priced fighters, he would be a great leverage play. However, the odds of that actually happening are extremely low. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Herman is limping towards the end of his career, but at least gets an equally decrepit opponent in what should be his final UFC fight. Herman has only averaged 76 DraftKings points in his last three decision wins and even his last finish only scored 86 points. It’s hard to know what to expect out of either of these two after long layoffs, injuries, and in what looks like the final UFC fight for both of them, which does add some uncertainty to the mix. Cummings is also moving up a weight class and coming off a back injury, so he has even more red flags than Herman. As the cheapest fighter on the card, there are more ways for Herman to sneak into winning tournament lineups if he can pull off the upset, but he’ll need a finish if he actually wants to score well. It’s hard to know how much Herman actually has left, but he looked like a zombie in his last match back in 2021. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 13% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #8

Matheus Nicolau

9th UFC Fight (7-1)

Fresh off his first UFC knockout and first finish of any kind since his 2015 UFC debut, Nicolau knocked out a fragile Matt Schnell in the second round this past December. For the record, Schnell has now been finished in six of his seven pro losses with four KO/TKO losses. Nicolau dropped Schnell twice in the fight, but spent the entire fight circling away from Schnell on the outside of the Octagon. He came into his second most recent fight with an identical game plan as he spent the fight circling away from David Dvorak as Nicolau won an ultra low-volume decision. He won two more low-volume decisions just before that, against Tim Elliot and Manel Kape. Nicolau originally made his UFC debut in 2015 and won his first fight with a third round submission. He then won a pair of decisions before getting knocked out by Dustin Ortiz in 2018 and was released following the loss. He landed two wins outside of the organization (decision and submission) before being brought back into the UFC in 2021 when he faced Kape and squeaked out a close split decision win.

Now 19-2-1 as a pro, Nicolau has five wins by KO, five by submission, and nine decisions. He’s been knocked out in the first round in both of his career losses (2012 & 2018) and is 9-0-1 with the judges, with the draw coming in his third pro fight back in 2011 in his first trip to the judges. Five of his last six UFC wins have gone the distance, with many of those being close. To his credit, Nicolau has won 12 of his last 13 fights, so despite consistently being involved in several fights, he knows how to do enough to get his hand raised. Nicolau has fought at both 125 lb and 135 lb in his career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb where he landed a submission, before dropping down to 125 lb after that. He did move back up to 135 lb for his two fights outside of the UFC in 2019, but dropped back down to 125 lb when he returned and that’s where he’s stayed.

Overall, Nicolau is a painfully patient counter striker who habitually ruins fights and continues to underwhelm when it comes to his output. He’s a BJJ black belt and also has good hand speed and power at Flyweight, but is content with reducing the outcome of fights to a handful of striking exchanges as he spends the rest of the time circling away from contact. He only averages 3.72 SSL/min and 3.08 SSA/min and has only landed two takedowns in his last three fights. In his eight UFC fights. He’s landed 10 of his 22 takedown attempts (45.5% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down on one of 15 opponent attempts (93.3% defense).

Brandon Royval

7th UFC Fight (4-2)

Thirteen months removed from a first round submission win over Matt Schnell, Royval’s last two booked fights were both canceled after Askar Askarov dropped out the day before an October 2022 fight due to a botched weight cut. Royval then took a fight against Amir Albazi on short notice in December, but was forced to withdraw when he broke his wrist. Prior to finishing Schnell, Royval won a close/controversial split decision over Rogerio Bontorin, after losing to two of the best guys in the division in Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja. The Moreno fight ended when Royval dislocated his shoulder late in the first round, and then Pantoja showed there are levels to this game when he submitted Royval in the second round. In Royval’s win over Bontorin, Royval got taken down eight times on nine attempts and controlled for nearly eight minutes. He did lead in significant strikes 40-28 and in total strikes 81-39, while notching three official submission attempts, but he never even attempted a takedown. Royval came really close to finishing the fight with a controversial submission attempt that many will argue Bontorin actually tapped to, but the fight was never stopped. Royval originally made his UFC debut in May 2020 and submitted Tim Elliot in the second round of his debut. He then landed another second round submission when he faced Kai Kara-France, leading up to his losses against Moreno and Pantoja.

Now 14-6 as a pro, Royval has three wins by KO, nine by submission, and two decisions. His one KO/TKO loss resulted from a dislocated shoulder against Brandon Moreno and his lone submission loss came against Alexandre Pantoja. His other four defeats all ended in decisions. All 12 of Royval’s finishes have come in the first two rounds, with nine ending in round one and three in round two. While he has three KO/TKO wins on his record, two of those were in his first four pro fights and the other resulted from a freak arm injury against Jerome Rivera in 2018. Royval fought at 135 lb until 2016 when he dropped down to 125 lb. Standing 5’9”, he’s tall for the division and generally has the height advantage in his fights.

Overall, Royval is an ultra fast paced grappler who’s a BJJ black belt and trains at elevation in Colorado. He operates at an insane pace that most opponents can’t keep up with and has no problem hunting for submissions off his back or from unconventional positions. He’s only landed a pair of takedowns in his six UFC fights, on his only two attempts. On the other side of things, he’s been taken down 17 times on 28 opponent attempts (39.3% defense). While his fights operate at a furious pace, we see more scrambling than striking and he still only averages 3.32 SSL/min and 2.72 SSA/min. Now he’ll face a patient, slower paced opponent, so it will be an interesting clash of style. Considering Royval dropped out of a fight just four months ago due to a broken wrist, we do wonder if he’s had enough time to recover and get back to 100%, but we have no way to know going in.

Fight Prediction:

Royval will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

These two fighters could not have any more conflicting fighting styles as Royval is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster, while Nicolau is one of the most boring. It will be interesting to see if the extreme patience of Nicolau frustrates Royval to the point that he comes lunging in and gets clipped on a reckless entry, which is what Nicolau is counting on. Nicolau won’t force anything and will simply circle away from contact until his opponents rush in. Perhaps Royval can rely on his height and reach advantages to use more kicks from the outside to take an early striking lead and force Nicolau to engage, because you don’t want to let Nicolau take an early and then just watch the minutes melt away in the fight as Nicolau retreats. They’re both high level grapplers, but neither guy lands, or really even attempts, a ton of takedowns. Nicolau also has an elite 93% takedown defense, while Royval has only even attempted two total takedowns in six Octagon appearances. Royval is most comfortable on the mat so it would be surprising to see Nicolau even try to take him down, which makes it more likely that this fight remains on the feet outside of a crazy scramble or two where Royval can entangle himself on Nicolau’s limbs or back. The most likely outcome is that Nicolau once again turns this into a boring fight and squeaks out a low-volume decision victory, but Royval is the ultimate test for just how boring Nicolau can be. If Royval does get impatient and rushes in, there’s a good chance he’ll get dropped, but he’s never been knocked out before, with his only TKO loss coming from a dislocated shoulder. So we’d be somewhat surprised if Nicolau was able to knock him out. Both guys are capable of submitting the other, but we expect their grappling to largely cancel each other out. That increases the chances that this goes the distance and ends in a close decision, with Nicolau being the more likely of the two to get his hand raised, which is how we’re predicting this fight ends.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +110.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Nicolau is coming off his first finish since his 2015 UFC debut and first time scoring more than 77 DraftKings points since 2017. That recent knockout win came against a fragile Matt Schnell who’s been finished in six of his seven pro losses, so it wasn’t exactly shocking. Royval has been far more durable than Schnell, even if he does fight at a more frantic pace and has been dropped at times. So it would be more surprising to see Nicolau finish Royval, and Nicolau’s pacifistic counter striking fighting style is generally terrible for DFS when he doesn't find a finish or land an absurd number of takedowns. While he does have the grappling and striking skills to finish opponents, he spends the majority of fights circling away from contact, leaving him reliant on making the most out of just a few striking exchanges. Perhaps Royval’s aggressive fighting style will force Nicolau to engage more, but we could also see Nicolau’s boring style finally slow Royval down. That creates a wide range of potential scoring outcomes and leaves this as a volatile fight for DFS. Just keep in mind the scoring floor is much lower than your typical Royval fight. In Nicolau’s last three decision wins he returned DraftKings scores of 58, 77, and 71, and at his expensive price he most likely fails to score well without a finish. Working in his favor for tournaments, he was just 14% owned on DraftKings the last time we saw him. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Royval exploded onto the UFC scene in 2020 with back-to-back second round submission wins as an underdog going against ranked opponents, which were good for 91 and 111 DraftKings points. However, he followed that up with a pair of early losses against two of the toughest Flyweights in the world, showing he was still not quite ready to compete with the guys at the top of the division. He then won a close decision, but scored just 62 DraftKings points as he was controlled for most of the fight. Most recently he scored 96 points in a first round submission win, which remains his second highest score in his four UFC wins. He’s only landed two takedowns in six UFC fights, and despite his frantic pace he doesn’t land much striking volume (3.32 SSL/min). He’s almost entirely focussed on landing submissions, which is great when successful, but makes it tougher for him to score well when they’re not. He also has no problem working off his back or getting the fight to the ground in unconventional ways, and he’s not the type of grappler to put up big takedown numbers. He’ll now face a tough BJJ black belt with a 93% takedown defense who’s never been submitted and excels at slowing fights down. It’s one of the worst matchups Royval could ask for when it comes to DFS production, but working in his favor, he is incredibly cheap, widening the range of useful outcomes for him. With that said, he looks reliant on handing Nicolau the first submission loss of his career to score well and if he wins a decision, he may still get left out of winning tournament lineups even at his cheap price tag. It will be interesting to see what the field does with him, as he had generally been extremely popular prior to his last fight, where his high price kept his ownership lower. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 22% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #7

Bill Algeo

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Coming off a split decision loss to Andre Fili, Algeo has gone the distance in seven of his last eight fights with the one exception coming against Herbert Burns, who injured his knee in the fight. Prior to that loss, Algeo notched his first early win since 2019 in a R2 TKO over Burns, after winning a decision against Joanderson Brito. After losing a decision in his UFC debut against Ricardo Lamas, Algeo bounced back with a decision win over Spike Carlyle before losing a decision to Ricardo Ramos leading up to his win over Brito.

Now 16-7 as a pro, Algeo has four wins by KO, six by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted twice, and also has five decision losses. After his first two pro fights ended in first round submissions in 2012 (1-1), 20 of his last 21 matches have seen the second round, including his most recent 16 fights. Seven of his 10 finishes occurred in the second round and his last five fights to end early (4-1) all ended in round two.

Overall, Algeo is a cocky BJJ black belt with terrible defensive wrestling, who relies on outlasting his opponents to win fights. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Algeo has been taken down by his opponents on 24 of 54 attempts (55.6% defense), with all seven of those opponents landing at least one takedown and five of them landing multiple. On the flipside, Algeo landed five of his own takedowns on 13 attempts in those matches (38.5% accuracy). All three of Algeo’s UFC wins have come against fighters with cardio concerns, which isn’t surprising considering pace is one of his best weapons. He averages 5.68 SSL/min and 4.14 SSA/min. He likes to showboat on the feet, but isn’t an especially dangerous striker. He’s also only landed one submission win since 2014 and overall appears content with fighting to close decisions.

TJ Brown

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Brown is coming off his first early win in the UFC in a third round submission over a debuting Erik Silva. Prior to that, Brown had fought to four straight decisions (2-2), after getting submitted in the second round of his UFC debut. One of those decision wins was split, and he arguably should have lost it when he faced Kai Kamaka. Nevertheless, Brown has won three of his last four fights,with the line loss coming in a decision against a fellow wrestler in Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Prior to joining the UFC, Brown finished four straight opponents and had nine straight fights end early.

Now 17-9 as a pro, Brown has four wins by KO, 10 by submission, and three decisions. He’s also been knocked out three times, submitted three more, and has three decision losses. While he’s only been to six decisions in 26 pro fights, four of his last five matches have gone the distance, and his last seven fights all made it to the second round, with six seeing round three. Brown fought mostly at 155 lb early in his career before dropping down to 145 lb in 2017.

Overall, Brown is a BJJ black belt and loves looking for arm-triangle chokes, with seven of his 10 submissions ending in that method. He grew up training with Bryce Mitchell and relies heavily on his wrestling, but is also a somewhat dangerous striker. He’s an offensively minded fighter and has been prone to getting submitted in addition to not having the best chin, so overall he’s prone to getting finished in a variety of ways, although his last early loss was in his 2020 UFC debut. After starting 0-2 in the UFC, Brown moved his camp to Glory MMA and Fitness with James Krause and showed some improvements since then, but was recently forced to find a new home as Glory has now been blacklisted by the UFC. He spent half of this camp training down in Mexico and the rest in his home of Arkansas at a smaller gym. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brown has landed 23 of his 41 takedown attempts (56.1% accuracy), while his opponents have gotten him down on 13 of their 21 attempts (38.1% defense). With so much wrestling in his fights, we never see big striking totals and he only averages 3.40 SSL/min and 2.69 SSA/min. The only time Brown has lost a fight after landing more than one takedown was in his UFC debut when he got submitted in the third round of a fight he was dominating.

Fight Prediction:

Algeo will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

Algeo’s biggest weakness is his defensive wrestling and Brown’s biggest strength is his offensive wrestling, so it’s strange that there’s been so much love from the public on Algeo this week. Brown has been vulnerable to getting finished in the past, but Algeo is a decision machine who can barely finish a hot meal. While Algeo has been submitted twice in the past, both of those losses came early in his career and this fight likely goes the distance. However, if it does end early look for it to come from a Brown arm-triangle choke in the later rounds. Brown is from Arkansas and used to train in Kansas City, so we expect him to have the crowd behind him, which should help his chances if this is close and we like Brown to win a wrestling-heavy decision.

Our favorite bet here is Brown’s ML at +170.

Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.

DFS Implications:

Algeo has only once topped 88 DraftKings points, which came in his lone early win in the UFC when Herbert Burns injured his knee and quit in the second round and Algeo scored 107 points. In Algeo’s two UFC decision wins, he scored 88 and 85 DraftKings points, showing a somewhat decent floor but no sort of ceiling. Algeo has gone the distance in seven of his last eight fights and hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, so he’s not a guy we have much interest in playing at his expensive price tag, despite the line moving in his favor. Algeo’s defensive wrestling has been a major liability and now he’s facing a wrestler, which further lowers his upside of ability to score well in a decision. We expect to see Algeo get taken down and controlled for periods of time on his way to losing a decision. The line moving so dramatically in his favor should raise his ownership some, which further lowers our interest in playing him. The odds imply he has a 65% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Brown’s wrestling-heavy approach allows him to score well even without a finish, especially on DraftKings. That will be especially useful here as Algeo has terrible defensive wrestling, but has been very durable and tough to finish. Brown scored 113 DraftKings points in his last decision win and 106 points on FanDuel. He then landed his first UFC finish in his last fight, which was good for 104 DraftKings points, but just 81 points on FanDuel, as it came in a grappling-heavy affair. Brown was also well on his way to putting up a massive score in his UFC debut before he got caught in a guillotine and he amazingly scored 73 DraftKings points in a second round submission loss. That gives you an idea for his upside, but he definitely has a low fight IQ and is prone to getting finished, so he’s still a tough guy to trust in most cases. However, this looks like an ideal matchup for him as he faces an opponent with bad defensive wrestling and not much finishing ability. We like Brown to win a wrestling-heavy decision and end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply he has a 35% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #6

Rafa Garcia

7th UFC Fight (3-3)

Coming off a bloody grappling-heavy decision win over Maheshate, Garcia got split open badly in the fight, but landed 6 of his 11 takedown attempts with over six minutes of control time to secure a unanimous 30-27 decision victory. Garcia has won three of his last four fights after starting out 0-2 in the UFC, but he lost a decision against a tough Drakkar Klose in his second most recent match. Seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance, with the one exception being a second round submission win over Jesse Ronson, who was coming off a lengthy PED suspension and then got finished again after his loss to Garcia before being cut (again).

Now 14-3 as a pro, Garcia has one win by KO, eight by submission, and five decisions. He’s never been finished, with all three of his losses going the distance. Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.

Overall, Garcia is a somewhat willing striker, but is pretty hittable and mostly relies on his grappling to win fights. He’s been durable to this point, having never been finished, but he hasn’t been tested a ton. In his six UFC fights, he’s landed 24 takedowns on 53 attempts (45.3% accuracy), his opponents have gotten him down on five of their 21 attempts (76.2% defense). Garcia has attempted 11 or more takedowns in his last four fights to make it past the second round, and he’s taken his last five opponents down three or more times each. Now he’ll face a fellow wrestler, so it will be interesting to see if can continue to find the same level of grappling success.

Clay Guida

35th UFC Fight (18-16)

Fresh off a split decision win over a retiring Scott Holtzman, the 41-year-old Guida has traded wins and losses for his last six fights and hasn’t won two in a row since 2017. Prior to his recent win, he got submitted in the first round by the kneebar specialist Claudio Puelles, in a fight that Guida idiotically initiated the grappling in. Just prior to that, Guida was nearly finished in the first round by Leonardo Santos, but was able to survive and Santos gassed out, allowing Guida to finish him in round two. Looking back one fight further, Guida suffered a split-decision loss as he got outstruck by Mark O. Madsen.

Now 38-32 as a pro, Guida has seven wins by KO, 14 submissions, 16 decision victories, and one Other/NA. He’s been knocked out twice, has 11 submission losses, eight decision defeats, and one Other/NA. Apparently Guida has been fighting so long they weren’t even properly documenting some of his early career fights, hence the Other/NA results. Guida has only finished two opponents since 2011—a 2017 R1 TKO win over Joe Lauzon and a 2021 R2 submission win over Leonardo Santos. Guida has gone 7-2 in his last nine decisions, although he’s just 2-2 in his last four.

Overall, Guida’s kinetic fighting style relies on him outlasting his opponents to win decisions. He’s been prone to getting submitted, with 11 of his 22 career losses ending in submissions. He turned pro all the way back in 2003 but still has cardio for days at 41 years old. He has a wrestling background, but isn’t especially dangerous anywhere and generally relies on his opponents tiring out to win fights. In his last 10 UFC fights, he’s landed 13 of his 45 takedown attempts (28.9% accuracy), while he’s only been taken down by his opponents twice on just four attempts (50% defense).

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’7” with a 70” reach but Garcia is 13 years younger than the 41-year-old Guida.

Both of these two rely heavily on their wrestling, so it will be interesting to see if that cancels each other out to some extent like we saw in the Madsen/Guida fight. Neither of them are great strikers, but we give the advantage to Garcia on the feet, while the wrestling exchanges could be close. However, while Garcia has never been finished, Guida has been very prone to getting submitted, so if we do see a finish that’s how we would expect it to come. The one area that Guida holds the advantage is in cardio, but Garcia appears to be pacing himself better now after gassing out early in his UFC career. It will be interesting to see if Guida can force this into a more uptempo match and not allow Garcia to slow things down to manage his cardio. If that happens we could see Guida take over late in the fight, but otherwise we like Garcia to finish slightly ahead and likely squeak out a decision win, with less wrestling success than he’s found in past fights, which is what we’re predicting will happen.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -155.

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DFS Implications:

Garcia’s grappling-heavy approach to fighting always keeps him in the DFS discussion and he’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his three UFC wins, despite two of those going the distance. However, this sets up as a tougher matchup for Garcia to find as much wrestling success as he takes on a veteran wrestler in Clay Guida. That lowers both his scoring floor and ceiling, leaving Garcia reliant on finding a finish to return value at his expensive price tag. When you consider that seven of his last eight fights have gone the distance, that makes it tougher to get excited about playing him, even if he is facing an opponent who has been prone to getting submitted. Even if Garcia does lock up a submission, if he doesn’t fill up the stat sheet first we could still see him get priced out of winning tournament lineups, and Guida is a fan favorite who could see a close decision bounce his way. So there are lots of ways Garcia fails here. The odds imply Garcia has a 69% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

Guida is generally looking to grind out grappling-heavy decisions, which keeps him in play on DraftKings more than FanDuel. He’s just 3-4 in his last seven fights, so he’s not a guy you can depend on, but he will push the pace and try to tire out the opposition. We’ve seen Garcia tire out in the past, so it’s possible Guida can put a pace on him and take over late in the fight to squeak out a close decision win, but we’d be surprised to see Guida find a finish and really score well. At his cheap price tag he could still serve as a value play even without a finish, and he’s averaged 88 DraftKings points in his last three decision wins, scoring at least 80 in all of those and 92 or more in three of them. Just keep in mind, Guida has never landed more than 80 significant strikes in any of his 34 UFC fights, and if he can’t find wrestling success it will be hard for him to score decently. Garcia is a fellow wrestler with a 76% takedown defense, so it’s definitely not the best matchup for Guida to find a ton of success on the mat, but we have seen two UFC fighters take Garcia down multiple times. The odds imply Guida has a 31% chance to win, an 11% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #5

Chris Gutierrez

10th UFC Fight (7-1-1)

Coming off a walk off flying knee KO against the corpse of Frankie Edgar, Gutierrez has knocked out his last two opponents and hasn’t lost a fight in his last eight matches. His only UFC defeat came in his 2018 UFC debut in a second round submission against an incredibly tough Raoni Barcelos. The only hiccup in his last eight fights was a 2020 draw against Cody Durden. Gutierrez has won his other seven most recent fights, with four decisions and three KO/TKOs. Two of his five UFC decisions have been split and another ended in a draw, so we have seen him involved in several close decisions.

Now 19-4-2 as a pro, Gutierrez has nine wins by KO/TKO, one by submission and nine decisions. He’s never been knocked out, but has been submitted once to go along with three decision losses. Seven of his nine KO/TKO wins occurred in the later rounds, and he tends to wear on his opponents as fights go on, largely by chipping away at their legs.

Overall, Gutierrezis is a one-dimensional striker who’s known for his violent leg kicks, but will also mix in knees and spinning elbows and seems to be improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. He doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling and in his nine UFC fights he’s only landed three takedowns on eight attempts (37.5% accuracy). However, his takedown defense has been pretty solid and he’s only given up nine takedowns on 34 opponent attempts (73.5% defense). He doesn’t land a ton of volume, averaging 4.70 SSL/min and 2.58 SSA/min, and has only once landed more than 69 significant strikes in a UFC fight. He has really good woodwork, and he looked crisper than ever with his movement and striking in his last fight, although it only lasted two minutes and came against a dinosaur.

Pedro Munhoz

19th UFC Fight (9-7, 2 NC)

Munhoz is limping to the end of his UFC career as he hasn’t won a fight since 2021 and is just 1-4 plus a No Contest in his last six matches. He couldn’t even finish his last fight as he complained of an eye poke that ironically no one but him really saw. That resulted in a No Contest against Sean O'Malley, in what had been largely a lackluster fight from both guys up until that point. The 36-year-old Munhoz lost two straight decisions leading up to that No Contest and his only win in his last six fights came in a 2021 decision against Jimmie Rivera, who lost three of his last four fights and never fought again in MMA following the loss to Munhoz. In fairness to Munhoz, we thought he beat Frankie Edgar in a 2020 split decision that didn’t go his way. Munhoz has absorbed a ton of damage over the last couple of years, absorbing over 100 significant strikes in each of his last four losses.

Now 19-7 as a pro, Munhoz has five wins by KO, eight by submission, and six decisions. He’s never been finished and all seven of his career losses have gone the distance. He fought to five straight decisions prior to his recent No Contest, and he hasn’t finished anybody since he knocked out a fragile Cody Garbrandt in 2019. All but one of Munhoz’s 17 UFC fights (not counting the recent No Contest) have either ended in the first round (5-0) or gone the distance (3-7), with the one exception being a 2016 R2 guillotine submission win.

Overall, Munhoz is a durable but aging vet who throws a ton of leg kicks and has a mean guillotine choke. He relies on his striking to win fights and hasn’t landed a takedown in his last nine matches. He’s been in several high-volume brawls and leads the slate with 5.96 SSA/min. He also averages 5.40 SSL/min, although we didn’t see much striking volume in his last fight before it was stopped for the alleged eye poke. At this stage in his career, we’re not sure how much Munhoz has left and it seems like he’s been fading over the last few years.

Fight Prediction:

Gutierrez will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 36-year-old Munhoz.

These two are headed in completely opposite directions in their careers, with Gutierrez looking better every time he steps inside the Octagon and Munhoz looking worse. They both throw heavy leg kicks, but we give the striking advantage to Gutierrez. While Munhoz is the superior grappler, he almost never uses it outside of looking for guillotines. That should keep this a striking battle and we expect Gutierrez to pick Munhoz apart and easily win the fight. It most likely goes the distance, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Gutierrez wear down the aging Munhoz and put him away in the later rounds through an accumulation of strikes.

Our favorite bet here is Gutierrez’s ML at -200.

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DFS Implications:

Gutierrez has generally not been a guy we’re super excited about playing in DFS as he doesn’t add much in terms of grappling or land a ton of striking volume. He had generally been fighting to lower volume decisions, and while he was consistently winning, he only topped 75 DraftKings points in one of his first five UFC victories. However, he’s now landed back-to-back knockouts, scoring 104 and 97 DraftKings points, showing at least moderate upside. While his last knockout came in the funeral of Frankie Edgar and should be taken with a grain of salt, Gutierrez looked crisp and showed that he’s still improving as a fighter. He’ll still have a tougher time cracking tournament winning lineups at his really expensive price tag, but he looks to be one of the few fighters on this slate with a safe floor and he looks like a solid low-risk option. Munhoz has never been finished in his career, but he averages a slate-leading 5.96 SSA/min, which could allow Gutierrez to land more strikes than normal if he comes in looking to make another statement. It’s also possible that Munhoz has completely gone off a cliff at this stage in his career, although that remains to be seen. Gutierrez is generally overlooked by the field and even in his recent dream matchup he was only 14% owned on DraftKings. That adds to his tournament appeal even if he rarely puts up huge scores. The odds imply he has a 66% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and an 11% chance it comes in round one.

Munhoz has been a KO or bust play in DFS for almost his entire career and now steps into a really tough matchup against an opponent who’s never been knocked out. We’re not confident that Munhoz has much left in the tank and he failed to top 68 DraftKings points in any of his last six fights. However, if we’re wrong and he comes out rejuvenated it’s always possible he could serve as a value play in a high-volume decision win at his cheap price tag. Just keep in mind, Gutierrez has exceptional footwork and only averages 2.58 SSA/min, which seemingly leaves Munhoz reliant on landing a finish to score well. The odds imply he has a 34% chance to win, a 14% chance to land a finish, and a 7% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #4

Ion Cutelaba

15th UFC Fight (5-8-1)

Fresh off his third straight early loss, Cutelaba 1-5-1 in his last seven fights and also had six canceled bouts during that stretch. He continues to find new ways to lose, including getting submitted by Johnny Walker, and it’s amazing he hasn’t been cut yet. He has one win since 2019, which came in a 2021 smothering decision over Devin Clark. Prior to that win, Cutelaba fought to a draw against Dustin Jacoby, after getting finished via KO/TKO in the first round of back-to-back fights against Magomed Ankalaev. The first of those was a quick stoppage so they finally ran it back following multiple canceled attempts, and Ankalaev answered any doubts in the rematch as he dribbled Cutelaba’s head off the canvas. After the win over Clark, Cutelaba got submitted in the first round in back-to-back fights against Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker, before getting knocked out 62 seconds into round two of his last match against Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Now 16-9-1 as a pro, Cutelaba has 12 wins by KO, two submissions (both by Omoplata early in his career), and two decision victories. Thirteen of his 14 finishes have occurred in round one, with the one exception being a 2013 TKO that occurred 29 seconds into round two in what was his fourth pro fight. He’s been knocked out three times, submitted four more, has one decision defeat, and one DQ loss. Cutelaba has always been a fast starter and 19 of his 27 pro fights have ended in the first round (13-5, NC), with three more ending in round two (1-2), and one ending in round three (0-1).

Overall, Cutelaba is dangerous both on the feet and the mat, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He has a background in Greco-Roman Wrestling, Sambo and Judo, but early in his UFC career he had often been content with duking it out on the feet, as he only took down two of his first nine UFC opponents, and didn’t even attempts a takedown in five of those fights. However, he’s landed 23 of his 43 takedown attempts in his last five fights, with at least one landed in all of those matches and multiple in four of them. Looking at jos entire UFC career, he’s landed 33 of his 57 takedown attempts (57.9% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents on 7 of 31 attempts (77.4% defense). While Cutelaba is extremely dangerous, he’s only landed one finish in his career beyond the first round. And since joining the UFC, he’s just 2-4-1 in fights that have made it past round one. With that said, he’s still only lost one decision in his career, although he’s only been to four (2-1-1). You have to imagine he’s fighting for his job here, so it will be interesting to see if he approaches this fight a little more cautiously than normal, and is content with holding positions on the mat.

Tanner Boser

9th UFC Fight (4-4)

Moving down to Light Heavyweight for the first time in the UFC, Boser is coming off a split-decision loss to a grappler in Rodrigo Nascimento and has now dropped three of his last four matches. All three of those losses went the distance, with the last two being split, while his last three wins all ended in knockouts in the first two rounds, with the last two of those ending in round two. Prior to the loss against Nascimento, Boser had three fights canceled and he’s only fought once in the last 22 months.

Now 20-9-1 as a pro, Boser has 11 wins by KO, two by submission, and seven decisions. The only time he’s ever been finished came in a 2015 six second R1 KO, while his other eight losses all went the distance. Boser has spent almost his entire career at Heavyweight, but did have one fight down at Light Heavyweight in 2014, where he’ll be returning for this next fight. That match ended with one of his two career submission wins and both of Boser’s submission victories occurred in his first five pro fights. Five of Boser’s last seven knockouts interestingly came in round two and he only has one first round knockout victory since 2015.

Overall, Boser was always an undersized Heavyweight so it’s not shocking to see him drop down to Light Heavyweight after his recent struggles up at Heavyweight. At the higher weight class, he typically relied on his speed to outmaneuver his typically larger and slower opponents. However, that speed advantage will likely no longer exist at Light Heavyweight, so it will be interesting to see how he makes up for that. He’s more or less of a pure striker and doesn’t offer much in terms of grappling. In his eight UFC fights, he’s never attempted a takedown, while his opponents have gotten him down on 6 of their 17 attempts (64.7% defense). His last three opponents have all gotten him down at least once, and he’s consistently struggled against grapplers and has looked bad off his back. We generally don’t see a ton of striking volume in his matches as he averages 4.21 SSL/min and 2.20 SSA/min. The only time he’s ever landed more than 68 significant strikes was in his UFC debut when he landed 93 and the only time he’s ever absorbed more than 36 was in his second UFC fight when Ciryl Gane landed 65 against him.

Fight Prediction:

Boser will have a 1” height advantage, but both fighters share a 75” reach.

Stylistically this looks like a very favorable matchup for Cutelaba to find wrestling success, but it remains to be seen how Boser will look at 205 lb for the first time in the UFC. Most of Cutelaba’s fights play out the same way, with him starting strong but then either making a fatal error or gassing out after the first round. While Boser is less likely than past opponents to capitalize on Cutelaba’s submission vulnerability, it is entirely possible that Boser can simply outlast him and knock him out in the later rounds, most likely in round two. However, that will require the weight cut to go smoothly for Boser, which we won’t know for sure until it’s too late, but we may be able to get a feel for at weigh-ins. If Cutelaba can manage his cardio better, which is asking a whole lot, he should be able to dominate Boser on the mat and either find a ground and pound finish or a wrestling-heavy decision victory. However, it’s hard to have much confidence in Cutelaba making smart decisions and there’s a good chance he’ll go out there and blow his load in round one yet again. With that said, he’s likely fighting for his job so if he were ever going to come in with a smarter game plan this would likely be the time. Ultimately we see this fight playing out in one of three ways. Either Cutelaba will come out and maul a potentially depleted Boser in the first round and knock him out in the first five minutes, or Cutelaba will gas out after round one and Boser will knock him out in the later rounds, or Cutelaba will grind out a decision win on the mat. It’s hard to say with much certainty which of those three happens, but Boser has only been finished once in his career and when you pair that with the importance of this match for Cutelaba keeping his job, we’ll tentatively say Cutelaba grinds out a wrestling-heavy decision win on the ground. However, if Boser looks terrible on the scale that could sway our pick to a Cutelaba first round knockout.

Our favorite bet here is “Cutelaba DEC” at +700.

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DFS Implications:

Cutelaba has sucked harder than a souped up shop-vac lately, but this at least sets up for him to find a ton of wrestling success. Boser has been taken down and controlled by all of his last three opponents and will now be dropping down from Heavyweight to Light Heavyweight for the first time in the UFC. That obviously adds a lot of uncertainty to the mix, as it remains to be seen how he’ll look at the new weight class, but it’s more likely to hurt Boser than help him, at least initially. However, Cutelaba has lost three straight and is just 1-5-1 in his last seven fights, and trusting him requires either a lot of faith or a lot of drugs. While he’s a physical freak, he consistently makes terrible decisions and gasses out after the first round. However, despite his struggles, he has averaged 110 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, with scores of 107 or more in his last four, and 119 or more in three of those. He offers massive wrestling upside and a history of landing first round knockouts. His wrestling allows him to put up huge scores even in decisions, and he scored 127 DraftKings points and 118 FanDuel points in his last decision victory. Cutelaba is always a guy whose fights we’re looking to target in DFS, because when he does win he typically does so in spectacular fashion with slate-breaking scoring potential, and when he loses it typically comes early. However, the field is fully aware of his scoring abilities and he’s typically highly owned, with his ownership checking in at 39%, 35%, 47%, 33%, and 39% in his last five fights. Considering he’s now lost three straight, it’s possible the field finally begins to back off of him, but it’s hard to count on that based on how consistently highly owned he’s been in the past. That lowers his tournament appeal some, but if he does win he most likely ends up in winning tournament lineups on both sites. The odds imply he has a 55% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 19% chance it comes in round one.

Boser has averaged just 96 DraftKings points in his three UFC knockout wins and scored just 67 points in his lone decision victory. Only once has he topped 94 points, which unsurprisingly was in his lone first round finish, and his last two knockout wins returned scores of just 94 and 87. The most likely way he wins this fight will be for Cutelaba to gas out after finding a bunch of early wrestling success, leaving Boser with another teed up second round knockout. That creates the potential for Boser to not do much in round one, and again return a mediocre score in a second round knockout victory. Supporting that idea, in Cutelaba’s recent R2 TKO loss, Kennedy Nzechukwu scored just 92 DraftKings points. Seeing something similar out of Boser would not be surprising if this fight played out similarly. That leaves Boser with an unimpressive ceiling in addition to a shaky floor, but at his cheaper price tag that still could be enough for him to crack tournament winning lineups. It’s also hard to know how the cut down to Light Heavyweight will affect Boser, which adds some additional uncertainty to the mix. The odds imply he has a 45% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #3

Dustin Jacoby

11th UFC Fight (6-3-1)

Jacoby is coming off his first loss in his last 10 fights in a questionable split-decision against Khalil Rountree Jr. Despite leading in striking in all three rounds and finishing ahead 120-85 in significant strikes with no other stats accrued by either fighter, two of the three judges still awarded the fight to Rountree. Just prior to that, Jacoby landed a first round walk off knockout against a dangerous Da Woon Jung, who had previously never been knocked out. Three of Jacoby’s last four and five of his last seven fights have gone the distance. His last 10 matches have all either ended in first round knockout wins (3) or decisions (5-1-1). Jacoby originally joined the UFC in 2011 at just 23 years old, but was cut in 2012 after an 0-2 start. Following his departure, he went 6-3 in MMA fights outside of the UFC, and also competed in Glory Kickboxing for several years. He returned to MMA in 2019 and made his way back into the UFC with a 2020 decision win on DWCS.

Now 18-6-1 as a pro, Jacoby has 11 wins by KO, one by submission (R1 2011), and six decisions. He’s been knocked out once (R2 2014), submitted twice (R3 2012 & R2 2015), and has three decision losses. Jacoby’s last 13 wins have all either ended in R1 KOs or decisions. The only time he’s landed a finish beyond the first round in his career was a 2011 R2 TKO by doctor stoppage. His other 17 wins have all ended in either decisions (6) or first round wins (11). He’s coming off his first decision loss since 2012. In Jacoby’s initial stint with the UFC he fought at 185 lb, however, he’s since moved up to 205 lb in his return to MMA. Jacoby acknowledged that he probably wasn’t ready for the UFC at 23 years old and lacked the confidence required, but appears to be in a much better place now.

Overall, Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who averages a healthy 5.58 SSL/min, while absorbing just 3.98/min. He’s never landed more than one takedown in a fight and doesn’t really add anything when it comes to grappling. It’s been seven and a half years since anyone finished him and he’s looked very durable at 205 lb. After landing two knockdowns in the first round of his first fight back with the UFC in 2020, Jacoby has only landed one in his last seven matches.

Azamat Murzakanov

3rd UFC Fight (2-0)

Murzakanov kept his undefeated records intact with his second straight third round knockout win since joining the UFC. The first of those came in Murzakanov’s March 2022 UFC debut against Tafon Nchukwi, with the most recent coming against Devin Clark. Prior to the pair of late finishes, Murzakanov had never put anyone away after the first round, and had only even seen the second round twice. He punched his ticket to the UFC with a first round TKO win on DWCS in August 2021, after taking 2020 and 2018 off. Murzakanov had originally been scheduled to make his UFC debut all the way back in 2017 but withdrew from the fight citing an injury and was then hit with a 2-year USADA doping suspension. Just before that, Murzakanov landed a 2016 R1 KO against UFC fighter Andre Muniz, who has since dropped down to 185 lb.

Now 12-0 as a pro, Murzakanov has nine KOs, one submission, and two decisions. Eight of his 10 finishes have come in round one, while his most recent two occurred early in round three. Both of his decision wins came in two-round rights, although his most recent two-round decision is incorrectly listed as being a three-round fight on multiple different MMA stat sites. So his recent two early R3 KO wins were the longest fights of his career.

Overall, Murzakanov is a Master of Sport in Hand to Hand Combat and a former SWAT team member. He’s listed as being just 33 years old, but his physique and hairline tell a different story. Regardless, he’s a dangerous human with heavy hands. Between his two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed just one of his seven takedown attempts (14.3% accuracy), while no one has tried to take him down. He relies more on power than volume, averaging 4.63 SSL/min and 2.44 SSA/min.

Fight Prediction:

Jacoby will have a 5” height and advantage.

We expect this to play out primarily as a striking battle, but we may see Murzakanov mix in some takedowns. Jacoby is more of a technical tactician who picks his opponents apart with a high-volume approach, while Murzakanov looks to land the more damaging shots, but doesn’t throw as much. It will be interesting to see how Murzakanov handles his height and reach disadvantages, which should make it even tougher for him to keep up with Jacoby’s striking pace. That will leave Murzakanov more reliant on landing a finish if he wants to pull off the upset, although we did just see Jacoby lose a decision despite finishing far ahead in strikes. While each of these two have the ability to knock out the other, both guys have been durable, lowering the chances we see a finish. We like Jacoby to outland his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is Jacoby’s ML at -150.

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DFS Implications:

Jacoby consistently either finishes opponents in the first round or fights to decisions and only one of his 12 career early wins came beyond the first round. He’s scored 106, 106, and 119 DraftKings points in his three R1 KO wins in the UFC and 80, 91, and 55 in his three decision victories. He’s a pure kickboxer who rarely lands any takedowns and he’s entirely reliant on striking, knockdowns and finishes to score well. While he does land a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.58 SSL/min in his career, it’s still really hard for him to return value without a finish at his expensive price tag. And even if he does get a finish, we could still see him get priced out of winning tournament lineups. He’s now facing an undefeated fighter, so a knockout won’t come easy, and Jacoby looks like a R1 KO or bust option on DraftKings. The odds imply he has a 60% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.

Murzakanov is coming off a pair of third round knockout wins, which were good for 96 and 72 points on DraftKings. Prior to those two late finishes, all eight of his early wins had come in the first round of fights outside of the UFC. While he will look to mix in wrestling at times, he’s only landed one of his last seven takedown attempts, but will have the grappling advantage in this matchup if he can get it to the ground. However, Jacoby’s a really tough kickboxer who’s only loss since 2015 came in a questionable split decision in his last match. Murzakanov will also be giving up 5” of height and reach to Jacoby, which will likely make it tougher for him to find his range and close the distance. He’s already not an especially high-volume striker, only averaging 4.63 SSL/min, so even at his cheap price tag we don’t see him returning value without a finish. The odds imply he has a 40% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #2

Billy Quarantillo

8th UFC Fight (5-2)

Continuing to trade wins and losses over his last five matches, Quarantillo is fresh off a second round TKO win over Alexander Hernandez, who was dropping down to 145 lb for the first time in the UFC. Quarantillo lost the first round on all three scorecards in that fight, before Hernandez gassed out in round two and Quarantillo took over and finished him late in the round. Prior to that, Quarantillo lost an insanely high-volume decision to Shane Burgos, where Burgos finished ahead 193-164 in significant strikes and 232-196 in total strikes, while Quarantillo failed to land any of his 14 takedown attempts. Burgos did a great job of chewing up Quarantillo’s lead leg, landing 28 leg strikes in the match, which left Quarantillo extremely compromised late in the fight.

Now 17-4 as a pro, Quarantillo has eight wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and four decision victories. Four of his five submission wins occurred in his first six pro fights and eight of his last nine early wins have come by KO/TKO. His only submission win since 2014 came in his 2019 UFC debut against a terrible Jacob Kilburn. The only time he’s ever been finished was in a 2016 R1 KO against Michel Quinones, while his other three losses all went the distance. His last nine fights have all made it out of the first round, with six of those ending in the later rounds (6-0) and only three requiring the judges (1-2). He started his career fighting between 150-160 lb and has gone back and forth between Lightweight and Featherweight, but has essentially stayed at 145 lb since 2019, one fight before he went on DWCS and finished Kamuela Kirk in a third round TKO.

Overall, Quarantillo is a BJJ black belt and pushes a high pace on his opponents with a combination of striking and grappling. He averages 7.88 SSL/min (most on the slate and more than Max Holloway) and 5.72 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). Between his seven UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Quarantillo has landed 10 takedowns on 41 attempts (24.4% accuracy), while he’s been taken down on 14 of 34 opponent attempts (58.8% defense). He’s won all five of the UFC fights where he landed a takedown, while he failed to land any of his 17 attempts in his two UFC losses. While Quarantillo won’t blow anyone away with his striking or grappling, his nonstop motor consistently tests opponents’ cardio, which creates the potential for so many late round finishes.

Edson Barboza

28th UFC Fight (16-11)

Thirteen months removed from a smothering decision loss to Bryce Mitchell, the 37-year-old Barboza is coming off knee surgery and has lost his last two and hasn’t won a fight in 23 months since landing a third round knockout against Shane Burgos in May 2021. Barboza has only won two of his last seven matches and just three of his last 10. Sixteen of his last 17 fights made it out of the first round, with 9 of his last 10 fights making it to the third round, but only five going the distance (1-3), with four ending in knockouts in the final round (2-2). The only time one of his fights ended in round one since 2014 was a 2019 R1 KO loss to Justin Gaethje. In his last fight, Barboza surprisingly got dropped in the first round by the one-dimensional wrestler in Bryce Mitchell, which isn’t a good sign for Barboza moving forward.

Now 22-11 as a pro, Barboza has 13 wins by KO/TKO, one by submission (R1 2009), and eight decision wins. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted twice, and has five decision defeats. Three of Barboza’s last four wins have come by knockout, with two ending in round three and one in round two, while three of his last four losses have gone the distance. Barboza fought his entire career at 155 lb until 2020 when he dropped down to 145 lb following a pair of losses to Justin Gaethje and Paul Felder. He’s gone 2-3 since making the drop, with all five of his Featherweight fights seeing the third round and three going the distance.

Overall, Barboza is a legend in the sport who’s known for his violent kicks, but doesn’t offer much of anything in terms of grappling. His takedown defense will play a major role in this fight assuming he doesn’t land an immediate knockout, which is unlikely. While Barboza has a solid 75% career takedown defense, that number drops down to just 42.9% in his five fights at 145 lb, where he’s been taken down eight times on 14 opponent attempts. Barboza only averages 3.96 SSL/min and his more recent wins have come through an accumulation of damage, with his last first round victory coming nearly a decade ago in 2014. He generally struggles when facing grapplers, but does have the win over Amirkhani on his record, although that one aged pretty poorly. It’s unclear how much Barboza has left at this stage in his career and there’s a very real chance he’s already gone off a cliff in his career, as he didn’t look good in either of his last two fights.

Fight Prediction:

Barboza will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage, while Quarantillo is three years younger than the 37-year-old Barboza.

While Barboza is the more technical striker who should be looking to chop Quarantillo down from the legs up after seeing all of the success that Burgos had with that approach, we have legitimate concerns about how much Barboza has left in the tank at this stage in his career. He got dominated in each of his last two fights and hasn’t won a match in almost two years. He’s now 37 and coming off knee surgery, which are both major red flags, especially for a guy who dropped down a weight class not too long ago. While it’s not impossible that Barboza shows up reenergized and puts on a striking clinic, those cases are few and far between with aging fighters coming off injuries. We expect Quarantillo to put a pace on Barboza, and while he’ll likely absorb a few heavy leg kicks along the way, he should eventually get this fight to the mat and drain Barboza’s gas tank with relentless pressure. We like Quarantillo’s chances of finding a ground and pound TKO finish in the third round.

Our favorite bet here is “Quarantillo R2 or R3 KO” at +500.

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DFS Implications:

Quarantillo continues to put up huge scores when he wins, as he’s averaged 118 DraftKings points in his five UFC victories, with three scores of 125 or more. However, the field is acutely aware of that and we consistently see Quarantillo very highly owned, with his DraftKings ownership in his last five fights checking in at 42%, 35%, 41%, 50%, and 39%. While four of Quarantillo’s five UFC wins came by late round finish, he only scored 85 DraftKings points in his lone decision victory, showing that it’s at least possible for him to fail to score well if he can’t find a finish. He’s also lost both of his UFC fights where he was unable to land a takedown, so there are a couple of ways for him to fail. With that said, he has a massive floor and ceiling and is now facing a struggling 37-year-old one-dimensional striker, who hasn’t fought in 13 months following knee surgery and who hasn’t won a fight since May 2021. While Barboza’s name may scare some people off, his recent performances shouldn’t and he got dominated in each of his last two fights. If Quarantillo can get this fight to the ground, he’ll have a major advantage and should be able to put up another big score, with a good shot at finding a late round ground and pound finish. Just keep in mind he’ll be very popular so you’ll have to differentiate your lineups elsewhere. The odds imply Quarantillo has a 61% chance to win, a 30% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.

Barboza is littered with red flags as he approached the end of his career at 37 years old following knee surgery. He’s been dominated in each of his last two fights and hasn’t won a match in 23 months. Now he’s facing an opponent who will be looking to test his cardio and take him down, and this looks like a tough spot for Barboza to simply stand at range and blast kicks. And with low striking volume (3.96 SSL/min), only one takedown landed in his last 11 fights, and zero first round finishes in his last 17 matches, Barboza rarely scores well in DFS. His wins generally come later in fights as he wears down his opponents, which does not typically translate well to big DFS scores. At his cheap price tag we could still see him serve as a value play with a late finish, but his last five three-round decision wins returned scores of just 66, 60, 59, 56, and 52, so he’s been useless in fights that go the distance. Quarantillo has only been finished once in his career, and will be looking to neutralize Barboza with his grappling, so this looks like an unfavorable matchup for Barboza to find the finish he needs to score well. The odds imply he has a 39% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.

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Fight #1

Max Holloway

27th UFC Fight (19-7)

While Holloway is just 2-3 in his last five fights, all three of those losses came in title fight decisions against Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway has won 16 of his last 17 fights against opponents not named Volkanovski, with the one loss coming up a weight class against Dustin Poirier in 2019. After losing a pair of title fight decisions to Volkanovski in 2019 and 2020, Holloway bounced back and set the all time UFC record for the most significant strikes ever landed in a fight (445), soaring past his own previous record of 290 that he landed on Brian Ortega. That record setting performance came in a five-round decision win over Calvin Kattar, and Holloway landed more significant strikes in the fourth round alone (141) than Kattar landed in the entire match (133). Holloway followed that up with another high-volume five-round decision win, this time landing 230 against Yair Rodriguez. And after landing just five total takedowns in his first 24 UFC fights combined, Holloway landed three against Rodriguez on five attempts, before failing to land any of his three attempts in his most recent decision loss to Volkanovski. While the first two fights were close, Volkanovski dominated Holloway in the last one, outlanding him in every round as he finished ahead 199-127 in significant strikes and won a unanimous 50-45 decision. Holloway got cut badly above his eye in the second round, but was able to battle through it to at least avoid suffering the first KO/TKO loss of his career.

Now 23-7 as a pro, Holloway has 10 wins by KO, two by submission, and 11 decisions. He’s never been knocked out, with his only early loss coming in a first round submission in his 2012 UFC debut against Dustin Poirier in what was just Holloway’s 5th pro fight. Holloway’s other five losses have all gone the distance, with the last three going five rounds. Three of Holloway’s career losses have come against Volkanovski, two more were against Dustin Poirier, one came at the hands of Conor McGregor, and the other was against Dennis Bermudez in a 2013 split decision. His last 13 fights have all seen the third round, and his last seven have all ended in five-round decisions.

This will be the 14th five-round fight of Holloway’s career and 13th in the UFC (8-4). His last seven five-round fights have all gone the distance (3-4), after the first five of his UFC career all ended in TKO wins. He also had a 2011 five-round split-decision win before he joined the UFC. Overall, Holloway has gone 5-4 in UFC five-round title fights and also has three more non-title fight five-round victories (two decision wins and one R1 TKO by injury against Charles Oliveira). Here are all of Holloway’s five-round fights:

2022 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2021 R5 DEC W vs. Yair Rodriguez
2021 R5 DEC W vs. Calvin Kattar
2020 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Alexander Volkanovski (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC W vs. Frankie Edgar (Title Fight)
2019 R5 DEC L vs. Dustin Poirier (155 lb Title Fight)
2018 R4 TKO W vs. Brian Ortega (Title Fight)
2017 R3 TKO W vs. Jose Aldo (Title Fight Rematch)
2017 R3 TKO W vs. Jose Aldo (Title Fight)
2016 R3 TKO W vs. Anthony Pettis (Title Fight)
2015 R1 TKO W vs. Charles Oliveira
2011 R5 S-DEC W vs. Harris Sarmiento (Pre-UFC)

Overall, Holloway is a high-volume brawler who tends to wear on his opponents and win the war of attrition, opposed to knocking them out early. His last four KO wins all came in the third round or later and he only has two R1 wins in his UFC career—one of those was from a doctor stoppage and the other came against an opponent who was knocked out in the first two rounds in his last three UFC fights before hanging it up. Holloway holds the record for the most significant strikes landed in UFC history (2975), which is 65% more than Frankie Edgar’s 1801 who has landed the second most. However, Holloway also holds the record for the most significant strikes absorbed in UFC history at 3217, which is 24% more than GSP’s 2591 in second place. Obviously those records are largely based on how many fights you have, and Holloway has 26 UFC fights under his belt, but he also averages 7.24 SSL/min and 4.89 SSA/min. While Holloway has only landed eight takedowns in 26 UFC fights, three of those came in his second most recent fight, showing that he is at least currently capable of looking for takedowns when he wants to and he has a 53% takedown accuracy, while also holding an elite 84% takedown defense and he’s only been taken down eight times in his last 17 fights.

Arnold Allen

11th UFC Fight (10-0)

Keeping his perfect UFC record intact following the first scheduled five-round fight of his career, Allen defeated Calvin Kattar in an early second round TKO, but the match ended in disappointing fashion after Kattar suffered a freak knee injury that forced the stoppage. Allen was looking good prior to the injury and won the first round on all three scorecards, finishing ahead 28-14 in significant strikes, with no takedowns attempted on either side. However, it’s hard to take too much away from the match after it ended so abruptly. Prior to that, Allen landed his first UFC KO/TKO win against Dan Hooker, who was dropping down a weight class in a failed experiment. Prior to the pair of TKO victories, Allen had won four straight decisions, with the last of those coming against a dangerous Sodiq Yusuff. Allen does have two submission wins in the UFC, both by guillotine, but those came in 2015 and 2018 and six of his 10 UFC victories have gone the distance. His last loss was in a 2014 decision with Cage Warriors.

Now 19-1 as a pro, Allen has seven wins by knockout, four submissions, and eight decision victories. However, six of those early wins came in his first seven pro fights. The only loss of his career was a 2014 decision and he’s never been finished. His first eight UFC fights all saw the third round, with six going the distance.

This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Allen’s career, but he’s never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes, as his first five-round fight ended eight seconds into round two following a Calvin Kattar knee freak injury. So we’ve never seen how his cardio looks in the championship rounds, nor does he truly know how his body will hold up in those rounds when the lights are on, regardless of how much he’s trained for it.

Overall, Allen is a crisp striker, with fast hand speed and good footwork. While he’s coming off a pair of TKO wins, he’s generally not bonus hunting or looking for highlight reel finishes and has said in the past that he’s purely focused on winning fights. He’ll mix in occasional takedowns, but he’s only landed three in his last seven fights, so they’ve been somewhat sporadic and he only averages 1.4 TDL/15 min despite having a 50% takedown accuracy. He’s also shown a solid 76% takedown defense and his last six opponents have combined to go 0 for 15 on their attempts against him. He also owns a solid 67% striking defense, and none of his 10 UFC opponents have landed more than 49 significant strikes on him, with eight landing 35 or fewer. He’s also never been knocked down in the UFC and is overall very defensively sound.

Fight Prediction:

Holloway will have a 3” height advantage, but Allen will have a 1” reach advantage.

This sets up as a striking battle in a pace up matchup for Allen and a pace down matchup for Holloway. They’ll each occasionally look for takedowns, but neither guy lands very many and they both have solid takedown defenses. They’ve also both been quite durable, and neither guy has ever been knocked out, while the only time either of them has ever been submitted was in Holloway’s 2012 UFC debut against Dustin Poirier. Allen has looked great in his last two fights, but neither of those made it to the six minute mark and he was facing an emaciated Dan Hooker and then Calvin Kattar blew out his own knee, so both wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. With that said, he looks to be getting stronger and more confident with letting his hands go and at 29 years old he should still be improving every time he steps inside the Octagon. While Holloway is by no means old at 31, he has absorbed more significant strikes than anyone in the history of the UFC and has a lot more mileage than Allen. That at least opens the door for the possibility that we could see Holloway begin to slow down, but a bounce back performance from him here is the more likely scenario. We’d be surprised to see Allen keep pace with Holloway in a firefight, meaning he’ll need to rely on his footwork and strategically try to pick Holloway apart from the outside while avoiding the shots coming back his way. That’s far easier said than done and while we expect Allen to give a good showing of himself, we’re still siding with Holloway, who’s won his last 16 fights at 145 lb against opponents not named Volkanovski. Allen still needs to prove he has five rounds of cardio and we’d be surprised to see this fight end early, so look for Holloway to outland his way to another decision win.

Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at -122.

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DFS Implications:

Holloway is just 2-3 in his last five fights, but all three of those losses were against Volkanovski. Holloway dominated his other two most recent opponents, scoring 153 and 209 DraftKings points in a pair of decision wins. He’s won his last 16 145 lb fights against opponents other than Volkanovski, with his only other loss in his last 20 matches coming against Dustin Poirier at 155 lb. Holloway’s last 11 fights were all scheduled to go five rounds, with the last seven going the distance, so we generally know what to expect from him, which is 25 minutes of high-volume striking. However, Allen is a tough guy to hit and only averages 2.25 SSA/min and has never absorbed more than 49 significant strikes in a fight. However, he’s also never faced Max Holloway or been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes. We fully expect Holloway to find the target more frequently than Allen’s past opponents, but we should still temper expectations with Holloway to some extent. That’s not to say Holloway won’t put up another big volume-driven score, but we don’t expect him to land as many strikes as he did in his last two wins. That leads us to the ultimate question of whether or not he’s a lock to end up in tournament winning lineups with a win here. In his last seven wins in five-round fights, Holloway averaged 134 DraftKings points with six scores of 104 or more. The only time he failed to score well was in a lower volume 2019 decision win over Frankie Edgar, who finished his career averaging 2.82 SSA/min and was always a threat to land takedowns. Holloway only landed 129 significant strikes in that fight and scored just 82 DraftKings points and 97 points on FanDuel. While Allen doesn’t represent the same wrestling threat of Edgar, he absorbs even fewer strikes, so it’s not impossible that he can slow this fight down and prevent Holloway from putting up a big score. However, Holloway still has the safest floor on the slate, and has also previously demonstrated the highest ceiling. However, that’s no secret and in his last four fights his DraftKings ownership checked in at 42%, 72%, 48%, and 44%. We once again project him to be the most popular fighter on the slate, and at his high price tag it’s not impossible he gets priced out of the winning DraftKings lineup if Allen is able to slow this fight way down (or win). However, it will be tougher for him to fail on FanDuel, where the scoring system is perfectly tailored for his fighting style. The odds imply he has a 62% chance to win, a 29% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.

Allen is 10-0 in the UFC but has only once topped 82 DraftKings points, which was in his lone UFC first round finish in a 2022 R1 TKO over Dan Hooker, who was making an ill advised trip back down to 145 lb. Allen scored 110 DraftKings points in that win, but then only scored 82 points in his recent early R2 TKO win when Calvin Kattar blew out his knee. Those are Allen’s only KO/TKO wins in his last 12 fights dating back to a 2014 R1 TKO win with Cage Warriors. In his previous eight UFC fights, Allen averaged just 68 DraftKings points and 67 points on FanDuel, failing to top 82 DraftKings points or 87 points on FanDuel in any of those. He failed to even score 70 DraftKings points or 73 FanDuel points in five of those fights and even in a pair of third round submission wins earlier in his UFC career he still returned DK/FD scores of just 59/72 and 65/75. Even if we extend his numbers from those first eight UFC fights over the course of five rounds, he would still be averaging just 93 DraftKings points and 99 points on FanDuel, with half of those failing to top 90 points on either site. Holloway has never been knocked out or even knocked down in 26 UFC fights, and also has an 84% takedown defense. That will likely leave Allen entirely reliant on striking volume to score well and he only averages 3.40 SSL/min. Holloway averages more than double that at 7.24 SSL/min and it’s hard to see Allen outlanding Holloway in a brawl. That likely leaves Allen dependent on turning this into a lower volume affair where he relies on his movement to avoid Holloway’s attacks, while tactfully landing his own shots. Neither guy would score very well in that type of fight, although Allen’s cheap price tag could still allow him to serve as a value play if he pulls off the upset. That’s not a ringing endorsement for Allen, and we’re not very excited about playing him. The odds imply Allen has a 38% chance to win, a 17% chance to land a finish, and a 6% chance it comes in round one.

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Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!

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