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Fighter Notes:
Alexandr Romanov
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Appropriately nicknamed “King Kong”, this man is a barbaric savage. Romanov has simply overpowered and engulfed every opponent who has dared step in the ring with him. Showcasing a perfect 11-0 record as a pro, he’ll be making his UFC debut on Saturday after his last three scheduled UFC debuts were canceled due to COVID. He was originally scheduled to fight Pessoa back in April but the entire event was canceled. Then he was scheduled against Marcin Tybura on the marquee July 11th Usman vs Masival/Welcome to Fight Island Card, but that was canceled when Romanov tested positive for COVID. And just last week, he was scheduled to fight Marcos Rogério de Lima, but that was canceled just hours before when Lima tested positive for COVID. Romanov has to be champing at the bit to actually make it inside of the octagon.
With nine weeks to recover from COVID, we’re not overly concerned unless we hear news of it having been a severe case that seriously impacted training for an extended period of time, which we haven’t. Pedro Munhoz was notably able to bounce back from COVID in less time and still beat up on Frankie Edgar for five high paced rounds.
Nine of Romanov’s 11 wins have come in R1 and the other two ended in R3. Five of the wins came by KO and the other six all came by submission. This is a bad man who can break opponents in all sorts of ways, while filling up a DFS scoresheet. He freight trains his way into earth shaking takedowns and then fully utilizes his 265 lb body to smother opponents while beating them senseless and choking them out when he feels like it.
We should note, in his second most recent fight he was warned initially and then docked a point for what the ref deemed to be multiple illegal blows to the back of the head. It seems unlikely we should seriously have to worry about such things happening in this fight, but then again, it’s 2020 and all rules are off.
Roque Martinez
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Coming off a TKO by "Soccer Kicks and Punches" six of his last seven fights have ended early, five in R1. Here are his last 7 fights starting with the most recent: R1 KO W, R2 KO W, R3 DEC L, R1 KO W, R1 KO L, R1 KO W, R1 SUB W. In his pro career, 14 of his 20 fights have ended early. This will be his first fight in an octagon as he used to fighting in a square roped ring.
Romanov will have a 4" height advantage in this matchup and we think he should have no trouble exerting his will. We think Romanov finishes this fight in R1—most likely by some form of choke submission, but we’re not ruling out a TKO either (or maybe he just rips the other guy’s head off, who knows it should be fun).
Sabina Mazo
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Looking to continue building on a two fight win streak, Mazo’s only career loss came in her UFC debut. Her last five fights all ended in decisions. Her only two career early finishes came by KO, both in 2017, against now 2-3 and 6-6 opponents. Mazo will have a 2” height advantage and a 5” reach advantage to go along with very long legs that she likes to kick people with. She throws a solid amount of volume and landed 118 and 108 significant strikes in her last two fights. She also added on four takedowns in her fight against Dobson (fight before last) but those are her only takedowns landed in the UFC. Also worth noting, Dobson has a 0% takedown defense. Not a typo, 0% (8 takedowns on 8 attempts, in 4 fights).
Mazo seems like more of a floor play than a ceiling play in DFS, but if everything works out right for her she could definitely sneak into the optimal lineup. Based on scoring we think she’s a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. Despite her salary representing 18% of your budget on both DFS sites, there are more than twice as many fighters priced above her on FanDuel compared to DraftKings so she may be perceived as more of a value and end up being higher owned over there.
Justine Kish
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Kish bounced back with a win in her last fight after losing the two prior. Her last 7 fights have all ended in decisions. Her only two career bouts not to end in decisions were submission wins that came in her 1st and 2nd pro outings, both against opponents with only one pro fight of experience. Kish has never been finished early in her 9 pro fights which could partially be due to her tentative fighting style. Despite turning pro in 2010, Kish only has 9 fights under her belt after not fighting in 2011, 2012, 2015 or 2019.
As you may have imagined, Kish has never scored very well in DFS. Typically neither do her opponents. However, one seemingly impossible stat that jumps off the screen is Felice Herrig’s flukey 15 advances on only two takedowns against Kish in 2017. Since Mazo is more of a striker than a grappler this probably doesn’t mean much in this fight.
We think Mazo wins by decision while landing a good amount of SS. If she can tack on a handful of takedowns and advances look for her to be a decent semi-contraction favorite play on DraftKings. It’s still unlikely she scores well enough to make the optimal but you never know.
Bryan Barberena
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Coming off back surgery, Barberena claims to be leaner and in the “best mental space” of his career. He’s coming off consecutive losses for the first time in his career on top of a 15 month layoff, and has now lost 3 of his last 4 and 4 of his last 6 fights. However, those losses came to Randy Brown, Vincente Luque, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington. Two of those losses were decisions while the other two were R3 KO’s. Barberena is not an easy guy to finish. Other than those two KO losses he’s only been finished early one other time in his career and that was by a R3 Armbar in his third pro fight back in 2010. Barberena should have one of the safer floors on the slate.
His fight against Luque set a UFC record for the most significant strikes landed in a three round Welterweight fight with the two fighters landing an absurd 169 and 163 respectively. Luque ended up KO’ing Barberena with 6 seconds to go in a very close fight. Barberena still scored an unheard of 95 DraftKings points in the three round loss.
While Barberena has never been finished before the third round, he has no problem ending his opponents early. In his 14 wins, 12 have come early with 10 KO’s and 2 submissions. His last two wins came by R1 KO.
Anthony Ivy
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Ivy is hoping to bounce back from his June UFC debut where he was KO’d in 59 seconds (first time being KO'd as a pro). He claimed to have had to make a quick, brutal weight cut for that fight after having limited training resources available. He sounds more prepared for this fight. All 11 of his pro fights have ended early. His other two losses both came by submissions (RNC & Anaconda). Barberena has two submission wins in his career (RNC & Arm-Triangle Choke). Ivy will have a 2” height and reach advantage in this fight.
We like Barberena to bounce back and finish this fight early against a less experienced opponent than what he’s used to.
Jalin Turner
5th UFC Fight (2-1)Alternating wins and losses over his last five fights, Turner was scheduled to fight Thiago Moises last week until Moises tested positive for COVID the day of the fight. He didn’t have to wait long to be gifted a new opponent in questionable UFC talent Brok Weaver who had originally been scheduled to Frank Camacho, before Camacho pulled out mid fight week. Turner is the rare late replacement favorite in this situation allowing DFS pricing to remain in line and avoid a massively underpriced favorite as we’ve seen in the past.
Interestingly, Weaver had been preparing to fight at 155 lb and Turner had also been set to fight at 155 lb last week. However, this fight was moved to 165 lb so Turner must have put on a bunch of weight in the days following his scratched fight. Both guys weighed in under the limit at 164 lb and 163.5 lb respectively.
Turner was immediately thrown to the wolves in the UFC getting Vincente Luque in his debut. His only other UFC loss came to 8-1 Matt Frevola. All 9 of his wins have come early with 8 of them by KO. He's never been submitted. 10 of his 14 fights have ended in R1 (8-2 in those).
Brok Weaver
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Coming off a loss to Roosevelt Roberts, Weaver was preparing to fight 5’10” Camacho before mid week swapping for a very different opponent in 6’3” Jalin Turner and his novelty-lengthed legs. Weaver unsurprisingly was trying to start shit once again at face-offs since that worked out for him so well against Roosevelt Roberts.
Weaver’s lone UFC win came when his opponent was DQ’d for throwing an illegal knee in R1 of Weaver’s debut. His pre UFC wins were mostly against a much lower level of competition and can safely be ignored for predictive purposes.
We like Turner to end Weaver—both in this fight and likely with the UFC.
Bobby Green
14th UFC Fight (7-5-1)Coming off a career high number of significant strikes landed, Green is fighting for the third time in under three months. After the last fight, Green said he's been battling a fractured hand since the previous Guida fight—but it didn't seem to be bothering him much, just something to keep in mind.
His last 7 fights and 10 of his last 11 have ended in decisions. The only one that didn't was a R1 KO loss to Dustin Poirier back in 2016. Green appears reenergized by the UFC's gaining popularity (he said so) and is now coming off back to wins after going 1-5-1 from 2014-2019.
Whereas Green's last opponent, Landoa Vannata, allowed 4.73 SSL/min, Patrick only allows 2.39 SSL/min. Hopefully people chase Green's career high grudge match performance but he shouldn’t be super highly owned with all the other great available options in his price range.
Alan Patrick
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Patrick is coming off a 23 month layoff after suffering just his 2nd career loss against Scott Holtzman. He’s only fought twice since 2016, both times in 2018 as he’s battled injuries throughout his career. Nine of his 15 wins ended in decisions but both of his losses came via KO.
Patrick has had a few fights where he racked up takedowns and advances. In his win over Hadzovic (39% TD Def) he landed 9 takedowns and 6 advances. In his win over Ray (55% TD Def) he landed 5 takedowns and 6 advances. And in his win over Brown (66% TD Def) he landed 5 takedowns and 10 advances.
However, Green has a solid 73% takedown defense that should hold up better than some of Patrick’s past opponents. Hypothetically, landing multiple takedowns and pairing them with advances would be both Patrick’s path to both victory and scoring well in DFS—especially on DraftKings where points are awarded for advances. On the flip side, if Green is able to defend multiple takedowns that could make him an interesting play on FanDuel especially if he can either end the fight early or put up another high volume night, neither of which we’re overly confident in.
We think this one is destined to end in a decision and neither fighter should be a foundation piece in your DFS lineups. However, it is entirely possible that Patrick pulls the upset, so on a slate lacking a ton of value there are worse cheap plays out there. At the very least, Patrick should make it to a decision which is more than we can say about many of the other dogs on this slate.
Roosevelt Roberts
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Roberts steps into the octagon for the third time in four months coming off a R2 submission win against Brok Weaver followed up by a R1 submission loss against Jim Miller. Nine of Roberts’ 12 pro fights have ended early, with five submission wins and three KO wins. His only early loss came in his last fight.
Roberts was scheduled to fight Frevola until Frevola pulled out Friday morning.
Kevin Croom
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Croom is stepping in on extremely short notice—this fight was announced just Friday morning before weigh-ins. If the name Kevin Croom sounds familiar that’s because he was briefly announced as the fill in for Giga Choladze against Alex Caceres two weeks ago. However, within a day of being announced he was then also replaced by Austin Springer. Croom cryptically posted he was out of the fight but it was a little unclear what the reason was. It may have been a positive COVID test.
Going into his UFC debut he seems pretty loose, and at weigh-ins he even hit Roberts with the old novelty switchblade comb trick that seemed to catch both Dana and Roberts off guard. Despite this being his first UFC fight, he has 33 pro fights under his belt, including 16 early victories (6 KO’s and 10 Submissions). His losses are evenly distributed between KO’s (4), Submissions (4) and Decisions (4). Croom does have a R2 KO win over current UFC fighter Darrick Miner back in 2018.
Croom definitely has his work cut out for him taking a fight on such short notice. Look for Roberts to work the jab early before attempting to end Croom with a Guillotine submission when Croom shoots for a takedown. If Croom can survive the Guillotine, Roberts will likely be looking for a Rear-Naked Choke if the opportunity presents itself. We like Roberts to win this fight by submission either in late R1 or early R2.
Julia Avila
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Avila comes in on a four fight win streak and fresh off a 22 second blitzing KO win. The win may have actually come too quickly. She only landed 11 significant strikes and didn’t even get a knockdown, resulting in lower DFS scoring than you might expect in a R1 KO.
Her only pro loss came pre UFC in 2018 on a freak injury where she got kicked in the hand 49 seconds into R1 dislocating her finger. She didn't seem worried about it but the ref waived the fight off. Since then she's 4-0 with three KO's, two in R1 and one in R2. However, Eubanks, who’s never been finished early, should be Avila’s toughest opponent yet.
Sijara Eubanks
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Eubanks’ last 6 fights have all ended in decisions. She's lost 2 of her last 3 fights with the most recent loss coming in a close decision against Bethe Correia. Her only two career early finishes came by KO in 2 of her first 3 pro fights against 1-3 Gina Begley and 1-2 Amberlynn Orr.
In the event Eubanks can survive Avila’s striking, we see this one going all the way to a decision. In that scenario Eubanks makes for an interesting value play. Even in a decision loss, there’s a non 0% chance Eubanks could end up in the optimal lineup in the event that all the favorites on the slate win and she outscores the other losing dogs. We saw this with Bill Algeo recently.
Billy Quarantillo
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Billy Quarantino is coming off a split decision win over Spike Carlyle that did NOT start well for him. He showed great toughness to survive the initial onslaught from the “Alpha Giner” and then outwrestled him from that point on.
On a 7 fight win streak, Billy has only been finished once in his career. His 5 wins prior to the most recent decision all came early with four KO's and one submission. In his UFC debut, he absolutely smothered and pummeled Jacob Kilburn for a round and a half before Kilburn simply could not continue and mercy tapped. Billy dropped an eye-popping 139 DraftKings points in that fight, which will surely drive up his ownership despite being the second most expensive fighter on the slate.
Also noteworthy, he KO'd Khama Worthy back in 2015. Billy averages 3.1 sub attempts/15min adding to his value on FanDuel. On paper, Nelson sets up as a juicy matchup, absorbing an average of 6.35 SS/min and only sporting a 50% takedown defense.
Kyle Nelson
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off his first UFC win in a 96 second KO against Marco Polo Reyes (1-4 in last 5 fights), Nelson's last 6 fights have all ended early (4-2). It’s worth pointing out, Nelson averages 2.8 sub attempts/15min, so in the unlikely event he pulls the upset he could have some additional upside on FanDuel.
We like Billy to wear Kyle out in this one. Look for Billy to take this to the ground and fill up the scoresheet. Another late R2 or early R3 finish feels about right.
Mike Rodriguez
6th UFC Fight (2-2, NC)Coming off a very recent R1 KO win (3 weeks ago) against one of the most KO'able opponents you could find, Rodriguez should be fresh on people's minds. His last two fights ended in the first couple minutes with KO's—one loss and one win. 13 of Rodriguez's 15 pro fights have ended early with 11 ending in R1 (9-2 in those 11). He’ll have a 2” height advantage and a 7.5" reach advantage in this fight. As we saw in his last fight, Slow Mike can throw some vicious knees, especially if he gets his opponent in a Thai clinch.
Ed Herman
24th UFC Fight (12-11, NC)Herman’s last 5 scheduled opponents/fights over three different dates got cancelled (5/2/20 - Event Cancelled due to Coronavirus, 8/1/20 - Jung Withdrew, 8/1/20 - Meerschaert Tested Positive for COVID-19, 9/12/20 - Meerschaert Withdrew, 9/12/20 - Allan Withdrew).
He’s won his last two UFC fights, however, he’s 3-4 in the UFC since 2015. Two of those three wins came by KO, as did two of the four losses. The other three fights ended in decisions. Early in his career he racked up 13 submission wins but the last one came in 2012.
Herman has only reached 100 DraftKings points in 2 of his last 10 fights. His last three wins all came against opponents in the midst of three fight losing streaks. In fact, the last time Ed Herman beat someone coming off even a single win was in 2012 against Clifford Starks.
We like Rodriguez to get another early KO, but based on the matchup, Herman has optimal upside in the event he can pull off the upset. Regardless of who wins, we don’t see this fight going the distance.
Andrea Lee
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Lee is coming off a very questionable split decision where she outstruck her opponent 104 to 80 in SS, and where even the commentators were talking about how one of the judges was straight up not even watching the fight. Maybe this will motivate her a little extra to finish within the distance but based on her decision history (five straight) we wouldn’t hold your breath.
She's now on a two fight skid after winning her first three UFC fights. Her DK scores, beginning with her UFC debut, are: 97, 86, 78, 52, 52. At $8,900 it's hard for her to hit value unless she gets an early finish or lands upwards of 120-130 SS. Eight of her 15 pro fights have ended in decisions including the last 5. All 6 of her early wins came in her first 8 fights.
Roxanne Modafferi
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Interestingly, both of these women are coming off three round decision losses to Lauren Murphy.
Modafferi’s stat line against Murphy: 44 SS Landed, 72 SS Absorbed, 0 TD Landed, 2 TD Allowed, 0 Submission Attempts, 0 Advances.
Lee’s stat line against Murphy: 104 SS Landed, 80 SS Absorbed, 0 TD Landed, 2 TD Allowed, 1 Submission Attempt, 0 Advances.
Modafferi has alternated wins and losses over her last 8 fights. 28 of her 41 pro fights have ended in decisions, including the last 5. Her last win came against Maycee Barber, but Barber tore her ACL to start R2 and was dead in the water for the rest of the fight. Had it not been for the injury Barber likely would have won the fight and we’d be looking at Modafferi having lost 4 of her last 5 fights.
Modafferi actually beat Lee back in 2014 well before either joined the UFC but we like Lee to win this one by decision. This sets up well for her to score decently against Modafferi’s 40% takedown defense and average of 4.8 SS/min absorbed. Lee seems especially overpriced on FanDuel and is more likely to benefit from the scoring system on DraftKings, so if you want to play her we recommend doing it on DK. Still, she’s more of a floor/contrarian play with limited upside, very similar to Mazo but probably with a little less upside.
Khama Worthy
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Worthy comes in on an impressive 7 fight win streak and his last three fights have all ended early—as have 5 of last 6 and and 14 of last 16. All 6 of his losses have come in R1 or R2 (5 KO’s & 1 Submission). Interestingly, 5 of his last 7 fights have made it to R3, which could mean Azaitar has more upside. Also worth noting, 2 of Worthy’s 6 career losses were to Paul Felder and Billy Quarantillo.
After winning his first two UFC fights early, look for Worthy to be a fairly popular play despite being priced up on DraftKings. Strangely, DraftKings and Fanduel priced these two fighters oppositely with DraftKings pricing Worthy as the favorite and FanDuel pricing Azaitar as the favorite. On DraftKings at least, we’re expecting Azaitar ends up being more popular based on the cost savings and spotless UFC scoresheet. It will likely be the opposite on FanDuel where Worthy saves you $2. This was the one fight that Dana hyped up.
Ottman Azaitar
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Azaitar is coming off a spectacular UFC debut against 6'1" Teemu Packalen (Packalen is 1-3 in the UFC and has been KO'd in R1 of his last two fights). Nonetheless, Azaitar landed 27 SS and a knockdown en route to a walk off R1 KO that scored an impressive 114 points on DraftKings and left his opponent literally convulsing on the mat. Azaitar is sure to get people excited as one of the few playable underdogs and leading the “FPPF” column on DraftKings. Azaitar has never lost a fight and 11 of his 12 wins have come early with 9 R1 finishes.
This is a tricky one to predict. Both guys are finishers and Vegas has the fight pretty close with Worthy as a slight favorite. Worthy will have a 4” height advantage, but Azaitar seems to have no issues chopping down trees. Honestly this one seems like a coinflip and we recommend having exposure to both sides.
Angela Hill
12th UFC Fight (5-6)After losing 4 of her first 5 UFC fights, Hill has bounced back to win 4 of her last 6 but is coming off a split decision loss that snapped a 3 fight win streak. This will be her first 5 round fight whereas Waterson has headlined twice in the past. Hill has only been finished early twice in her career, both times by submission (Armbar and RNC). 5 of her last 6 losses ended in decisions. She’s more of a puncher/boxer than kicker and she throws a solid amount of volume but she only has 2 finishes in her last 8 wins.
Michelle Waterson
9th UFC Fight (4-4)Waterson hasn't scored over 76 DraftKings points in her last 7 fights, including a 37 point (DK) loss in a 5 round decision. She’s coming off a split decision loss to Carla Esparza. Her last 6 fights have gone to decision after her first two fights both ended with submissions (1-1). She throws lots of kicks that tend to keep her opponents at bay—not ideal for pace up fights.
We think Hill wins this one in a 5 round decision. Based on her past volume she could be able to score decently off volume alone if she can close the distance on Waterson’s kicking. However, there are definitely paths to this ending up lower scoring and outside of the optimal despite the mid-tier pricing—primarily if Waterson is able to keep Hill outside of punching distance and win in a low scoring decision where she also spends a decent amount of time tied up either against the cage or on the ground. Because of that, we think you can take some of the allocation you would normally use on the main event underdog, in this case Waterson, and shift it to non Main Event fights. That’s not to say Waterson can’t score well and end up in the optimal lineup, we just think it’s less likely than normal.