The Sheet

Fight Prediction:

Dvorak will have a 2” height advantage and a 1000x skill advantage.

Well, here’s the execution of the night. After originally checking in as a -160 favorite against Paiva, Dvorak will now come in around a -460 favorite against a non-UFC caliber fighter in Juancamilo Rondero. We’ll make this short and to the point. Dvorak is absolutely going to murder this kid. We’ve been asking for a finishable opponent for a while now with Dvorak and apparently our prayers were answered. Dvorak couldn’t ask for much more in this spot and we expect him to put on a clinic here. Rondero shoots for a ton of takedowns with terrible accuracy, but we think that will force Dvorak to wrestle more and work his way to an early submission win.

We’ll update prop lines here once they’re released, but we’re most interested in Dvorak’s R1 and R2 win lines as well as his R1 and R2 submission lines.

DFS Implications:

Dvorak failed to put up big numbers in his recent two decision wins that scored just 74 and 58 DraftKings points, but this spot couldn’t get much juicier. Dvorak is priced as if he were a -160 favorite, but now checks in with nearly 3x those odds. He’s easily the best play on the slate now and stands out on both sites as a solid value. We would be shocked if Dvorak doesn’t get a finish here and like him to land a first round submission.

Just when we thought Victor Rodriguez was the worst play on the slate, in steps Juancamilo Rondero. Despite entering this fight with a 4-0 pro record, this guy gets absolutely dominated in fights. He gets taken down more than nip slips on Instagram, and offers very little on the feet. He clearly lost his last decision, but was gifted it by the judges and got a lucky submission in a fight he was losing badly just before that. Let’s hope the field simply looks at his record and doesn’t watch the tape, because this is 100% the type of fighter that we want to bet heavily against. Dvorak might as well be a -3000 favorite.

Fight #10

Josh Culibao

After starting his pro career 8-0 with five wins by knockout and three by decision, Culibao has yet to find his first win in the UFC after losing via R2 TKO stoppage in his debut and then fighting to a draw most recently. In his defense, Culibao fought a tough/huge Jalin Turner up a weight class in his February 2020 UFC debut, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into the loss. Turner is big even for the 155 lb division and has fought as high as 170 lb in the past, so the 145 lb Culibao was really walking into an execution in that one. It also didn’t help that Culibao looked to twist his ankle early in the second round, which Turner capitalized on by immediately taking him to the ground and pummeling him.

Most recently, Culibao took on another tough opponent in Charles Jourdain and fought to a draw. Culibao dropped Jourdain in the first round with a stiff right hand, but was unable to finish things and Jourdain was able to swing the momentum in the second half of the fight. It’s rare we see a draw without a point deduction, but the judges were all over the place with one ruling it 30-27 for Jourdain, another 29-28 for Culibao and the third forcing a split decision draw with a 28-28 scorecard. It felt like there was more action than the statsheet indicates, as the fight ended with Culibao ahead 46-44 in significant strikes, but Jourdain ahead 68-51 in total strikes. Despite neither fighter registering a takedown, the fight ended up on the mat at multiple points, but those primarily came from Jourdain stuffing Culibao’s takedowns (0 for 7), and reversing them into submission attempts (3).

While Culibao came into the UFC with a spotless 8-0 record, we should note that those wins came against opponents who entered with records of: 0-2, 0-0, 2-2, 6-2, 5-0-1, 6-4, 25-10-1, and 8-8.

Sha Yilan

This will notably just be Yilan’s third career fight at Featherweight (145 lb), as he generally fights a weight class up at Lightweight. Yilan landed first round wins in his previous two Featherweight fights with a 2019 Rear-Naked Choke Submission and a 2020 post R1 retirement. His last four fights have been back up at Lightweight. Based on the weight drop, it will be extra important to monitor Yilan closely at weigh-ins. Update: He looked great.

Yilan has a 17-6 pro record, with 12 of his wins coming early. Seven of those ended in knockouts, while he also has five submission wins. His last three and five of his six career losses have also come early, with one knockout and four submissions. We’ve seen a finish in six of his last seven fights, with five of those ending in the first round. We’re obligated to point out that he’s been fighting questionable competition throughout his career. Here are the records coming in of his past opponents: 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 3-3, 0-1 (L), 13-7 (L), 3-7-1, 2-5, 1-1, 5-4, 26-12-2, 5-3 (L), 5-1, 3-2, 7-4, 8-0 (L), 12-5 (L), 1-0, 7-1-1, 9-7-1, 10-11, 15-3 (L), 20-10 and 3-5. Going up against a 3-5 opponent in his last match before joining the UFC is a little bizarre and the fact that Yilan has six losses on the dubious Chinese regional scene is certainly concerning.

Overall, Yilan looks like he prefers to grapple than strike in open space and does his best work from top position, whether that’s looking for a choke or ground and pound. We’ve seen several of the debuting Chinese fighters really struggle as of late, so it will be interesting to see if Yilan continues that trend.

Fight Prediction:

Culibao will have a 2” height and reach advantage.

While it’s still unknown how Yilan’s skills will translate to the UFC, it’s hard to imagine him proving to be tougher than Culibao’s first two UFC opponents. Superficially, this looks like a get right spot for Culibao after failing to notch a win in his first two UFC matches. If Culibao can stay on his feet, we like his chances to land a knockout, but things could get dicey if the fight makes it to the mat and we expect Yilan to relentlessly look for takedowns from the start, so it shouldn’t take long to see what direction this fight is going. While Culibao’s takedown defense is listed at 100%, that’s based on a single Jalin Turner attempt, so it might as well be a question mark. On tape, Yilan does look better at securing takedowns than Culibao, and Culibao notably has no submissions on his record, so he appears more of a threat standing up, despite the fact he shot for 10 takedowns in his first two UFC fights (and missed them all). We don’t have a strong conviction on either one of these guys, but we expect Culibao to win this fight if he can stay off his back and think there’s a decent chance he gets an early KO.

We like “Culibao Wins by KO” at +420, “Culibao Wins by R1 KO” at +1000 and “Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance” at +130. You can consider Yilan’s ITD line at +480 if you think he pulls off the upset.

DFS Implications:

While Culibao has yet to land a takedown in the UFC, he does have 10 attempts in less than five rounds of action, so the potential is at least there. He hasn’t shown great technique, but has shown the willingness to keep trying. With that said, he may be more inclined to keep this fight standing, going against an opponent who’s actively looking to get the fight to the ground. Culibao also only landed 46 significant strikes in his last match, so he’s given us absolutely no reason to believe he can score well in a decision and will be reliant on an early finish to return value. After scoring just 5 and 34 DraftKings points respectively in his first two UFC fights and now priced as the fourth most expensive fighter on the slate, we expect his ownership to check in pretty low, which makes him intriguing for tournaments. The odds imply he has a 68% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance to end it in the first round.

Yilan’s grappling-heavy approach has a higher floor on DraftKings, where we would expect him to boost his score from control time in a win. He doesn’t land much striking volume, so he’s almost entirely reliant on grappling stats and finishes to score well. He does check in as the fourth cheapest option on the DraftKings slate, so a grappling heavy decision win could still be useful, but he’s more reliant on landing a finish on FanDuel. Because he’s still more or less of an unknown, he’s definitely a high variance play who could look terrible or great, making this fight more interesting to target. The odds imply he has a 32% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish, and just a 7% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #9

Bruno Silva

Coming off a second round knockout win against UFC newcomer J.P. Buys, Silva didn’t hold back on his hazing as he landed an immediate kick to the cup followed by an eye poke in the opening 45 seconds of the fight. Silva commanded the fight from that point on and seemed to be operating at a gear above Buys. He impressively finished the first round with a spinning backfist that momentarily dropped Buys at the horn. Midway through the second round Silva dropped Buys again with a right cross that sent Buys into desperation mode, trying to survive as he rolled away from Silva and got back to his feet. Silva immediately dropped him again, but Buys was somehow able to narrowly survive and return to his feet once again. However, Silva paused for a moment to look for the perfect strike and landed one more clean right hand to the chin of Buys that dropped him for the third time in 30 seconds and the ref immediately stopped the fight, awarding Silva a R2 TKO win.

Prior to the impressive win, Silva had his back against the wall after losing his first three UFC fights. Luckily for him, the R3 submission loss in his UFC debut was later overturned to a “No Contest” after his opponent, Khalid Taha, failed a drug test. So Silva’s official UFC record sat at 0-2. Other than overturning that loss, the UFC hadn’t done Silva any favors, pairing him up against three very tough opponents in his first three UFC fights. After making his debut against 13-2 Khalid Taha, Silva then took on 17-3 David Dvorak, who came in on a 13 fight winning streak, followed by 12-1 Tagir Ulanbekov.

Silva’s first two opponents both failed to get him to the mat on just a single attempt each, but Tagir Ulanbekov was able to take him down five times on 11 attempts. However, not before Silva landed numerous heavy leg kicks. Ulanbekov looked to be in trouble early on based on the number of leg strikes he was absorbing from Silva, but adjusted well as the fight went on and was able to squeak out a decision. The final numbers were extremely close, with Silva actually finishing ahead on significant strikes 47-46 and landing four takedowns to Ulanbekov’s five. Ulanbekov did lead in total strikes 69-59 and control time 3:47-2:21, but the fight was much closer than the odds suggested going in, as Ulanbekov closed as a massive -485 favorite.

Silva attempted at least eight takedowns in each of his first three UFC fights, but struggled with his accuracy going 2 for 11, 3 for 11 and 4 for 8 in those three matches. He went 1 for 2 in his recent R2 KO win against Buys.

Silva has fought at both 135 lb and 125 lb throughout his career. He made his UFC debut at 135 lb, but then dropped back down to 125 lb, where he’s stayed since. Prior to joining the UFC, Silva fought Casey Kenney to a draw in the LFA in 2017, which is curiously Silva’s second draw in 18 pro fights.

Silva’s been knocked out once in his career, which was a 2016 seven second R1 finish. He’s only officially been submitted once, which came in a 2011 R3 Armbar, but he was unofficially submitted a second time in his UFC debut which was later overturned to a “No Contest.” On the other side of his record, seven of his 11 career wins have come early with four KOs and three submissions. Silva has solid wrestling and trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo.

Victor Rodriguez

To put it bluntly, Victor Rodriguez is not a UFC caliber fighter. But in fairness to him, he made his debut fighting at 135 lb against a stud in Adrian Yanez who was also debuting. Rodriguez looked to take Yanez down 10 seconds into that fight, but was never close to actually making it happen. Yanez patiently defended the attempt while seemingly exerting zero effort, as he might as well have been drinking a cup of coffee and reading the newspaper. Yanez then broke away and methodically dismantled Rodriguez for the next 90 seconds. He knocked him down twice in reality, but was only awarded one of those. With Rodriguez on the run, Yanez continued to piece him up with his hands before sending him to a different dimension with a violent head kick.

Rodriguez looked undersized in the fight, which makes sense when you consider he weighed in at just 133 lb for the 135 lb match. He’ll now drop down to 125 lb for the first time in his career, after fighting as high as 145 lb in the past.

Prior to joining the UFC, Rodriguez had just seven “pro” fights under his belt, and that’s using the term pro in the loosest possible sense. Several of Rodriguez’s recent fights have taken place out of Alaskan warehouse parking lots in makeshift wrestling rings. They did let him fight indoors at times in the prestigious Alaska Fighting Championship, which has produced world renown names such as Carlton Minus.

Rodriguez has never been in a fight that lasted longer than nine minutes, and five of his fights ended in the first round. With a 5-3 “pro” record, all five of his wins have come by KO. It’s pretty amazing that this guy was called up to the UFC in the first place, but they had plenty of slots to fill last year. We can’t imagine he’ll survive his initial contract, so enjoy it while it lasts.

Fight Prediction:

Rodriguez will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.

After facing four tough opponents so far in the UFC, Silva finally gets a teed up matchup. There’s not much more he could ask for here, and the odds agree, as Silva checks in as the biggest favorite on the slate. While Silva only has one finish going back to August 2017, he should get his second one in a row here and we expect it to come in the first two rounds.

The best bet here is clearly “Silva Wins ITD”, however that was so obvious early in the week it was quickly bet down from +125 to -135. That makes his R1 and R2 win lines more interesting at +340 and +600 respectively. Looking at the longer shot options, we like “Silva Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200 and “Silva Wins by R2 Submission” at +1900. If you think Rodriguez has a chance in hell, bet his R1 and R2 KO lines at +1200 and +1600 and godspeed.

DFS Implications:

Prior to his recent DFS explosion, Silva had yet to even sniff a decent DFS score, with DraftKings totals of 45, 39 and 37 in his first three UFC fights (all losses). However, now he’s coming off a ridiculous three knockdown R2 KO win that scored 132 DraftKings points and 142 points on FanDuel. Clearly that was an outlier performance and we should never expect more than a single knockdown, let alone three, but Silva steps into a far easier matchup here, so there’s no reason to think he won’t put up another big number. While his low striking volume makes it hard to see him scoring well in a decision, it would be shocking to see this fight go the distance. While it’s disappointing that his previous slate-breaking performance will drive up his ownership, this is not a spot we’re looking to get cute in. Silva sets up as one of the best plays on the slate and the odds agree, implying he has a 77% chance to win, a 48% chance to get a finish and a 24% chance to win in the first round.

Rodriguez is coming off a violent KO loss, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this fight. We often see fighters in that situation come in more cautiously, with wrestling heavy game plans, but we don’t see Rodriguez out wrestling Silva. It does present the slight concern that Rodriguez would just circle away from contact and sabotage the fight, but he’d essentially be giving up on his UFC opportunity with that strategy. We expect/hope that he’ll come in looking to scrap as he always has in the past, which will leave him with a puncher’s chance to land a knockout. It’s unlikely but not impossible and dropping down a weight class should help. The odds imply he has a 23% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #8

Claudio Silva

After losing his 2007 pro debut by DQ, Silva rattled off 14 straight wins before losing a decision to James Krause in his most recent fight last October. Eleven of those 14 wins came early, with a pair of knockouts and nine submissions. A BJJ black belt, Silva is more dangerous on the mat than standing up. He’s notably never been finished as a pro.

Silva joined the UFC in 2014 and won his first two fights by decision, including a win over Leon Edwards. While dealing with a plethora of injuries, Silva then didn’t fight from November of 2014 following the win over Edwards until May of 2018. He didn’t waste any time upon his return though and won his first three fights back by submission—two in R1. Following his third straight submission win, he then took off 14 months before his recent decision loss.

In his last fight, the 38-year-old began to show his age and definitely appeared to be slowing down. Following the first round, Krause told his coach that his ”knee was torn up” but he was still able to gut out a decision win to break Silva’s winning streak. Throughout the fight Silva was swinging labored kicks and big slow moving punches. He definitely didn’t have much explosiveness or quickness with his motions. Silva went 2 for 12 on his takedown attempts against the 59% takedown defense of Krause, while Krause failed on his only takedown attempt, but led in significant strikes 94-64 and total strikes 96-66. Silva’s striking accuracy and defense looked pretty poor, as he landed just 29% of his strikes thrown, while absorbing 59% of what Krause threw back at him.

Silva competed at 185 lb earlier in his career, up until his second UFC fight when he dropped down to 170 lb. Since the move, Silva has gone 4-1.

Court McGee

Coming in on a three fight losing streak, the 36-year-old McGee has now lost five of his last six fights, with his only win since August 2016 coming in an October 2018 decision.

McGee joined the UFC in 2010 and won his first two fights with late round submissions, but has since fought to decisions in 14 of his last 15 fights. The one exception over those 11 years was a 2016 R1 KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio, which is the only time McGee has been finished in 29 pro fights and 17 in the UFC—he’s notably never been submitted. While he does have 10 finishes on his record, eight of those came in 2009 or before, prior to joining the UFC, and the other two came in his first two UFC matches.

In his recent decision loss to Carlos Condit, Mcgee got dropped from a right hook just as the first round ended, but was able to get back to his feet and continue in the second round. That was the biggest moment in the fight as the rest of it was pretty close, with Condit narrowly coming out ahead in total strikes/significant strikes 88-84, with neither fighter attempting a takedown in the pure striking battle. Despite how close the final numbers were, Condit won a unanimous 30-27 decision as he appeared to land more damage with his strikes.

In Mcgee’s previous trip inside the Octagon, he welcomed tough up-and-comer Sean Brady to the UFC in October of 2019. McGee looked overmatched against the younger and undefeated Brady. McGee was, however, able to take it to yet another decision showing his durability and toughness.

McGee started his career off at 185 lb, but dropped down to 170 lb in his sixth UFC fight following a pair of decision losses in 2012.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’11” but McGee will have a noticeable 4” reach advantage.

In a fight between two guys nearing the end of their careers, our typical fade the old guy narrative appears to be a wash. Both of these guys are extremely durable and have combined for just a single early loss in their lengthy careers—not counting Silva’s DQ in his 2007 pro debut. This appears likely to end in another decision and the way both guys have looked recently it’s hard to be confident in either to win convincingly. Silva is clearly the more dangerous fighter and therefore has a better chance to finish the fight if it does end early, but McGee has only been taken down six times in his last nine fights, and neither guy is likely to land a knockout on the feet. We give Silva the edge to win this fight, but if McGee can remain upright, it’s possible he can outland his way to a decision win.

Our favorite bet here is the “Fight Goes the Distance” at -136. The long shot to consider is “Silva Wins by R1 Submission” at +800.

DFS Implications:

Silva has DraftKings scores of 84 and 85 in his two decision wins and 110, 82 and 107 in his three submission victories. He’s landed 13 takedowns in his six UFC fights, but has never landed more than 64 significant strikes and failed to go above 36 in his five other fights. He looks reliant on landing a finish in the first two rounds to return a big score and now goes against an opponent who’s only been finished once in 29 pro fights and has never been submitted. So obviously this isn’t a favorable matchup to land a finish, but it’s not impossible. The odds imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 23% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance it comes in R1.

McGee has just three wins in his last 10 fights, with those decision victories occurring in 2015, 2016 and 2018. It’s now been upwards of three years since he’s heard his name called at the end of a fight and he’s an ultra thin, low-upside DFS play. His last three wins did score 99, 77 and 91 DraftKings points, but those all included at least two takedowns and it seems less likely that McGee would want to voluntarily go to the mat with a dangerous submission specialist like Silva. McGee also landed a knockdown in his 99 point performance, and Silva has never been knocked down. So overall, this does not look like a spot for McGee to score well in a decision win and he’s an easy fade for us. The odds do imply he has a 50% chance to win, a 19% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1 and he projects to be very low owned for the GPP masochists out there.

Fight #7

Ben Rothwell

Now 39 years old, Rothwell had previously been scheduled to fight Philipe Lins on three different dates (3/13, 5/8 & 5/22), but Lins was continuously forced to withdraw. Then Rothwell was scheduled to face Askar Mozharov on this card, but Mozharov was also forced to withdraw due to visa issues. Barnett was announced as the replacement just 10 days in advance of this event.

Rothwell is coming off a relatively high-volume decision loss to Marcin Tybura after winning his two previous fights. He turned pro over 20 years ago and has a ridiculous 51 fights on his record. Proving how durable he is, he’s only been knocked out four times in those 51 Heavyweight matches, and not a single time since 2009. While 34 of his 38 career wins have come early, five of his last six fights have gone the distance, and he hasn’t been involved in a fight that ended in R1 since 2015. Normally with Heavyweights you expect lots of first round knockouts, but only three of Rothwell’s last 15 fights, over the course of 12 years, have ended in the first round. He did have a pair of Guillotine Submission wins in 2015 and 2016 and a Guillotine submission loss in 2013 for what it’s worth.

After a five round decision loss to Junior dos Santos in early 2016, Rothwell took the rest of 2016, all of 2017 and all of 2018 off before returning in March of 2019. Upon his return, he lost a pair of decisions, extending his losing streak to three. Desperate to win a fight and break his three fight skid, he then went up against 11 ft tall Stefan Struve.

Late in R1 of that fight, Rothwell landed a brutal nut shot that kept Struve down for an extended period of time, even bringing the doctor out and having some discussion of ending the fight. In fairness to Rothwell, Struve’s balls hang at the same height as a normal man’s chin, so it’s easy to confuse the two. Nevertheless, the fight eventually continued only to see Rothwell land a near identical blow in R2 that left the entire crowd wincing and Rothwell cursing at himself. At that time, the ref deducted a mercy point and again Struve looked on the brink of not being able to continue. With some coaxing from Dan Miragliotta and several more minutes of rest, Struve finally agreed to continue the fight only to get blitzed by a desperate Rothwell and KO’d a minute later. You have to feel for Struve and clearly the low blows played a factor in the KO.

Rothwell then defeated OSP in a May 2020 decision before most recently losing a decision to Marcin Tybura. Rothwell has now lost four of his last six fights, with all four losses ending in decisions.

Chris Barnett

Former Super Heavyweight and current life of the party, Chris “Huggy Bear” Barnett has fought as high as 340 lb despite being just 5’9”. He cut 75 lb to get down to Heavyweight in 2016 and won a decision in his next fight. However, he then got knocked out in three straight matches, although one of those was from a doctor stoppage due to a cut above his eye. Since the string of losses, Barnett has won six in a row, with four KOs, including three in the first round, to go along with a pair of decisions. He also competed in two kickboxing matches in 2019, where he went 1-1, as well as a grappling match against Yoel Romero, where Barnett was submitted in under four minutes. So since dropping down to Heavyweight in 2016, Barnett has gone 7-3, with four wins by KO, three decision wins, and three KO losses. Five of the KOs came in R1 (3-2) with the other two occurring in the second round (1-1).

Looking at his entire career, Barnett enters the UFC with a 21-6 pro record, with all 27 fights ending in either KOs or decisions. Of his 21 wins, 16 have come by knockout, including eight in R1, with five going the distance. His six losses have been split down the middle between KOs and decisions.

With a Taekwondo background, Barnett likes to mix in spinning attacks and throws a high number of kicks in general for such a big guy, as he’ll often mix a lead leg kick into his combinations. Unlike many Taekwondo fighters, Barnett will still mix in the occasional takedown, where he’ll try to drag his opponents down using his weight to hang on them while looking for trips. He’s not hunting for submissions on the ground, however, and is purely looking for ground and pound. Two of his last four fights went the distance in close, low-volume staring contests where not a ton happened.

Barnett has notably fought just once since October 2019, which came in a September 2020 58 second R1 KO win. His last two bookings were both canceled, one for COVID and the other when Barnett withdrew for undisclosed reasons.

Fight Prediction:

Rothwell will have a massive 7” height advantage and 4” reach advantage, but Barnett is 5 years younger than the 39-year-old Rothwell.

With five of Rothwell’s last six fights going the distance and 12 years gone by since he’s been knocked out, there’s a decent chance this fight ends in a decision. Barnett has also notably fought to decisions in two of his last four fights as well. Rothwell is a lumbering journeyman who’s mostly just looking to cash paychecks at this point in his career. While he’s been extremely durable, he’s no longer a huge threat to knock anyone out. With that said, this does look like a step down in competition for him. Rothwell has a solid Guillotine Choke, which is how he landed two of his last three finishes. When you combine that with the fact that Barnett generally looks for a takedown or two, it’s possible Rothwell finishes this fight with a Guillotine Choke Submission. With that said, it’s far more likely to end in a disappointing low-volume decision.

The safest bet here is that the “Fight Ends in a Decision” at +140, but we like taking a few stabs on “Rothwell Wins by R1 Submission” at +2900, “Rothwell Wins by R2 Submission” at +3700 and “Barnett Wins by Decision” at +750. You can also consider Rothwell’s R1 and R2 win lines at +340 and +500, but we see less value in those.

DFS Implications:

Rothwell scored just 74 DraftKings points and 60 points on FanDuel in his last decision win and needs a finish to return value in DFS—something he’s only done once in the last 5+ years and he’s now 39 years old. You can point to the fact that five of his last six wins have come early as a reason for optimism in Rothwell, but four of those came in January 2016 or prior, and Rothwell has since regressed into a deteriorated decision grinder. Based on the matchup, it’s certainly possible he gets a finish here, although even if he does, it’s not a lock to return value. His last five finishes scored 114, 85, 92, 108 and 81 DraftKings points. Lacking a knockdown, his submission wins have returned unimpressive scores, leaving him reliant on a knockout in the first two rounds to put up a big number. The odds imply he has a 72% chance to win, a 42% chance to end it early and a 20% chance to finish it in R1. Those finishing chances seem a little optimistic if you ask us.

Barnett is your typical KO or bust Heavyweight, even if he does occasionally land a takedown. His volume is repulsively low, so even at his bottom of the barrel price tag, he’ll still need a finish to return value. He’s never landed a submission in his career, so it seems safe to say that won’t happen. Working against him, Rothwell hasn’t been knocked out since 2009 and will have a massive height and reach advantage. There’s always a chance something crazy happens when you get two behemoths swinging hams at each other, but this looks like an incredibly tough spot for Barnett to get a finish and be relevant in DFS. If he can get Rothwell down and accrue a large amount of control time and ground strikes, he would score better on DraftKings and potentially even salvage a decision win, but that’s an unlikely scenario. He’s also already seen the line move massively against him. The odds currently imply he has a 28% chance to win, a 17% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #6

Jack Hermansson

Looking to bounce back from a five round decision loss to Marvin Vettori in the December 5th main event, this is an important fight for Hermansson to win after losing two of his last three.

In his fight against Vettori, Vettori pushed the pace early and dropped Hermansson with a stiff left cross midway through the first round. However, he was unable to finish Hermansson on the ground as he kept looking for the Guillotine Choke opposed to simply laying down heavy ground and pound. The second and third rounds were far less eventful, with neither fighter in danger of getting finished at any point, and Hermansson looked like he clearly won the third round. Vettori increased his output in the fourth and fifth rounds as the two fighters traded punches for the final 10 minutes. Vettori interestingly only attempted one takedown in the fight, which he didn’t land, potentially showing respect for Hermansson’s submission game or the fact that he’s now far more comfortable with his own stand up game. On the other side of things, Hermansson went 2 for 7 on his takedown attempts. Vettori finished with 164 significant strikes (6.56/min) and that fight amazingly set the record for the most significant strikes landed in a Middleweight fight in UFC history as Hermansson finished with 122 of his own. Looking back, that was a pretty terrible matchup for Hermansson as Vettori had the grappling skills to prevent Hermansson from submitting him on the mat and was also the more powerful fighter on the feet.

Hermansson is rarely in a boring fight and 9 of his last 11 fights have ended early with the two exceptions being 5 round decisions. His first three UFC losses all ended early, with a 2016 R2 KO against Cezar Ferreira, a 2017 R1 KO against Thiago Santos and a 2019 R2 KO against Jared Cannonier. Six of his last seven wins have also come early, including five in the first round. His last three finishes all came by R1 submissions, while his first three finishes in the UFC all ended in KOs (2 in R1 & 1 in R3). He bounced back from a 2019 R2 KO loss against Cannonier with a R1 Heel Hook Submission win against Kelvin Gastelum in his second most recent fight.

Of his 21 career victories, 17 have come early, with 11 KO’s and 6 submissions. Ten of those wins came in the first round. All three of his KOs in the UFC resulted from heavy ground and pound, something that Hermansson prides himself on. You definitely don’t want to find yourself mounted by this guy. Whether it’s through his submission game or via ground and pound, Hermansson generally finishes his opponents on the mat and is far less of a threat on the feet.

Edmen Shahbazyan

Coming off the first loss of his young career, Shahbazyan made it past the first round for just the second time and looked exhausted later in the second round. Brunson very nearly finished the fight just before the close of R2 with violent ground and pound, but Herb Dean allowed Shahbazyan to continue. The doctor checked him out between rounds, but also allowed the fight to continue. Clearly Shahbazyan was done and Brunson finished him just 26 seconds into the third round as he dragged him back to the mat and began unleashing punches while Shahbazyan failed to fight back.

Shahbazyan is extremely dangerous early on in fights, but it looked like his soul had left his body following the midway mark of the second round in that last one. That was also the first real test in Shahbazyan’s UFC career, so the jury is still out on whether or not his earlier streak of first round KOs was fraudulent. There’s no denying the power he possesses in his hands, but there’s more to MMA than just throwing heavy punches. Shahbazyan will need to improve his grappling and cardio if he wants to make a real run in the Middleweight division.

Shahbazyan is now 11-1 as a pro with 10 first round wins, including nine KOs and one submission—which came when Jack Marshman volunteered his back and neck to avoid taking any more ground and pound.

Note: Shahbazyan’s takedown numbers are completely skewed by a weird 8 for 21 performance in his UFC debut that ended in a decision win against Darren Stewart. Shahbazyan has only attempted one takedown in his last four fights.

Fight Prediction:

Shahbazyan will have a 1” height advantage, but Hermansson will have a 3” reach advantage.

Look for Hermansson to shoot for an early takedown and test the 58% takedown defense of Shahbazyan. That will likely be the defining moment in the fight as Shahbazyan is a one-dimensional power puncher who will be in trouble on the mat with Hermansson. We expect Hermansson to get it to the mat quickly and immediately go to work hunting for a finish. However, Shahbazyan looked decent at getting back to his feet early in the Brunson fight and offers up dangerous downward elbows to defend takedowns, so he’s certainly live to land an early KO if Hermansson can’t safely get him to the ground and assume top position. If the fight makes it past the midway point Hermansson should have a massive cardio advantage as he’s used to going five rounds while Shahbazyan has only been in two fights that lasted longer than five minutes. So Shahbazyan will have a narrow window to land a KO early in the fight. We like this fight to end in the first round and think Shahbazyan most likely suffers his second straight defeat.

Our favorite bet here is that the “Fight Ends in R1” at +175. We also really like “Hermansson Wins by R1 Submission” at +1200. You can also consider Hermansson’s R1 and R2 win lines at +380 and +550 respectively. And you can easily hedge your Hermansson bets with “Shahbazyan wins by R1 KO” at +600.

DFS Implications:

If this fight goes at all how we expect then the winner should end up in winning DFS lineups. With that said, there are more ways for a Hermansson finish to fail than a Shahbazyan KO—just look at Hermansson’s last R1 finish where he scored just 91 DraftKings points. When you combine his DFS price tag with the fact that he’s never landed a knockdown in the UFC, it’s clear that he needs more than an immediate submission to score well. So if we see another instance where he fails to land his initial takedown attempt but then succeeds at landing a Heel Hook submission, there are some ways he gets a finish without putting up a big score. There’s also the possibility of an early R2 or R3 finish. But those results are definitely not the norm. Hermansson’s last six finishes have scored 91, 122, 121, 81, 117 and 110 points. It’s unlikely Shahbazyan has the cardio to go three rounds, so we expect one of these two to end the fight early, with Hermansson being the more likely victor. The odds imply he has a 59% chance to win, a 40% chance to get a finish and a 16% chance it comes in R1.

Shahbazyan is a R1 KO or bust fighter with a lawnmower sized gas tank and no ground game to speak of. He does throw dangerously violent hands and defends takedowns with sharp elbows, so you need to treat him like a snapping turtle, but he’s still a turtle. Once you get him on his back he’s no longer a threat, which makes this a really tough matchup for Shahbazyan as he goes against an opponent in Hermansson who’s constantly looking to put opponents on their backs. However, if Shahbazyan can stay upright long enough to land something clean, he has the strong potential to land a first round KO, which would pretty much guarantee him a spot in winning lineups. We expect him to be the most popular three round underdog on the slate, which lowers his appeal in tournaments. The odds imply he has a 41% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance to end it in R1. If you ask us those odds don’t make any sense as he turns into a pumpkin halfway through fights, so the three lines should all be much closer.

Fight #5

Bill Algeo

This fight was originally scheduled for April 17th, but Ramos was forced to withdraw due to COVID protocols and it was rescheduled for this card.

Algeo is coming off a decision win over a dangerous Spike Carlyle, after losing a decision to Ricardo Lamas in his August 2020 UFC debut. Algeo has now fought to four straight decisions going back to his 2019 DWCS loss. Following that loss he took a fight in the CFFC and won a decision that was apparently enough to get him the call from the UFC. Algeo’s last 12 fights have now all made it past the first round, with eight of those going the distance. All four of the other fights during that time ended in the second round with Algeo winning three of them. The one early loss came against UFC fighter Shane Burgos via R2 Rear-Naked Choke in 2014. Algeo also notably lost a 2017 decision to another UFC fighter in Jared Gordon.

Algeo made his UFC debut on short notice and just 16 days after fighting previously. He looked good in the first two rounds against veteran Ricardo Lamas and seemed like he was going to cruise to a decision win in the fight before Lamas put up a dominating 10-8 third round to steal the decision. A BJJ black belt, Algeo showed solid scrambling ability on the ground in that match, but looked to tire late.

Algeo is now 14-5 as a pro, with three wins by KO and six by submission. Five of his six submission wins came by Rear-Naked Choke and one was by Arm-Triangle Choke. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted twice—once by Burgos and then previously from a R1 Armbar in his second pro fight. So he’s impressively only been finished once in his last 17 fights and that was nearly seven years ago.

Ricardo Ramos

Coming off his second R1 KO loss in his last four fights, it should be noted that Ramos’ two UFC losses came against 10-0-1 Lerone Murphy and 14-2 Said Nurmagomedov. Three of his five UFC wins went the distance while he also has a 2017 R3 KO win and a R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win more recently.

Ramos is 14-3 as a pro, with 10 of his wins coming early, including three KOs and seven submissions. All three of his career losses have occurred in the first round, two by KO and one by submission. Ten of his pro 17 fights have ended in round one, one has ended in round two, two have ended in round third, while the other four went the distance. He’s won all four of the decisions he’s been to.

Ramos is a slick striker but often falls in love with throwing stupid novelty strikes like his weird behind the leg heel sweep whatever-the-fuck that is. He’s landed nine takedowns in his last four wins, but only averages three significant strikes landed per minute. While he’s been to three decisions in his seven UFC fights, he’s never landed more than 54 significant strikes or absorbed more than 65—which both came in the same fight.

Fight Prediction:

Algeo will have a 3” height advantage and 1” reach advantage.

The UFC matchmakers did an exceptional job pairing these two together. Both of these guys like to put on a show and this should be a fun fight to watch. Both fighters are more of a threat to end fights with submissions and each has been submitted in the past, so if it does end early that would be the most likely avenue. Algeo has shown a far more durable chin, so if this turns into a pure striking battle we like his chances better to land a finish. With that said, we expect this fight to be a combination of striking and grappling with each guy looking to one up the other. Ramos is the flashier fighter with as many decisions in his entire career as Algeo has in his last four fights. With that said, all three of Algeo’s career decisions have come in his last seven fights. If these guys were cars, Ramos would be an Audi and Algeo would be a Honda Civic Hatchback. Ramos is far more prone to breaking down, but looks great when he wins. Both guys are live to win here, but Algeo’s durability is the tiebreaker for us.

Algeo’s last four and six of his nine career finishes have come in the second round, so we’re naturally drawn to “Algeo Wins in R2” at +1600 and “Algeo Wins by R2 Submission” at +3800. Based on Ramos’ frailty, we also like Algeo’s ITD line at +470. Both of these two have ended the majority of their finishes with submissions, so we also like “Fight Ends in Submission” at +340. And Ramos has won all three of the decisions he’s ever been to, while Algeo has gone 2-2 in his last four, so there appears to be some value in Ramos’ decision line at +250.

DFS Implications:

Algeo has put up near identical DraftKings scores in his two recent decisions if you remove the win bonus and look purely at his stats, so we have a reasonable idea of what to expect from him in a decision. He’s a high-volume striker who occasionally mixes in a takedown, but requires a finish to put up a big score. While he won’t completely destroy your lineups in a decision win, he’s highly unlikely to crack the optimal without a finish. Working in his favor, Ramos has been finished in the first round in all three of his losses. The odds imply Algeo has a 53% chance to win, an 18% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Despite his cheaper price tag, Ramos is even more dependent than Algeo on a finish to return value and has only scored 63, 60 and 68 DraftKings points in his three UFC decision wins. Now he goes against an opponent who has never been knocked out and only submitted once in the last nine years. Ramos generally makes for good DFS action because he forces the action early in fights, which has resulted in three of his last four fights ending in the first round, but this looks like a tough matchup for him to excel. Ramos can win this fight, but it would more likely come in a lower scoring decision unless he lands some crazy spinning kick or is able to get under the neck of Algeo—both of which are still possible. You’ll want exposure to both sides of this one without going too crazy. The odds suggest Ramos has a 47% chance of winning, a 21% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance to end it in R1.

Fight #4

Felicia Spencer

Spencer had been scheduled to fight Danyelle Wolf originally, but Wolf withdrew and Dumont stepped in on just over two week’s notice.

Although Spencer has lost two of her last three fights, she’s clearly demonstrated her toughness as she went three full rounds with Cris Cyborg and five rounds with Amanda Nunes. She also finished Megan Anderson in the first round, just as she did with Zarah Fairn dos Santos. Anderson notably knocked out Dumont in the first round of their match. Spencer started her pro career at 155 lb before dropping down to 145 lb for her second pro fight, so she has plenty of size for the division.

Even though she has a black belt in Taekwondo to go along with her BJJ black belt, Spencer is not a great striker but can land a heavy lead elbow, which she used to split open Cris Cyborg early in their match. Spencer does her best work in the clinch and likes to get dirty in fights. She’s looking to push opponents against the cage, take them down, beat them up and choke them out.

While Spencer’s takedown defense is officially just 14%, the only woman to ever attempt to take her down was Amanda Nunes who did so six times on seven attempts. So that’s really a 14% Nunes defense and a question mark when it comes to mere mortals. We could make a similar argument for her 5.57 significant strikes absorbed, as Nunes landed 124 (4.96/min) on Spencer and Cyborg landed 122 (8.13/min). Spencer’s other two opponents landed 13 (3.59/min) and 3 (0.88/min). Spencer notably combined to go 0 for 15 on takedown attempts in her two UFC losses (0 for 8 against Cyborg in 3 rounds and 0 for 7 against Nunes in 5 rounds), while going 2 for 4 in her two wins.

Spencer currently sits on an 8-2 pro record, with six of her wins coming early, including a pair of KOs and four submissions. Four of those six finishes have come in the first round.

Norma Dumont

Dumont is coming off a decision win against a struggling Ashlee Evans-Smith, who’s lost four of her last five fights and apparently was dealing with some sort of injury when she fought Dumont. Nevertheless, Dumont dominated the fight for three full rounds on her way to a unanimous 30-26 decision win. She outlanded Evans-Smith 94-42 in significant strikes, landed two of four takedowns while defending both of Evans-Smith’s attempts, and added four minutes of control time, a knockdown and a reversal, as she quietly filled up the scoresheet.

Dumont started pro career at 135 lb before moving up to 145 lb in her UFC debut where she was knocked out by Megan Anderson in the first round. Since then, Dumont has been battling the scales to try and make 135 lb with no success. In her last fight she checked in at 139.5 lb (3.5 lb over the limit) and made multiple excuses for why she missed. Then she had been scheduled to fight Erin Blanchfield back in April, but again weighed in at 139.5 lb and the fight was canceled. Now she’ll get to fight at 145 lb, so you would hope she won’t have an issue making weight. Dumont opted to stay in Vegas following that fight cancelation, opposed to going back to Brazil, so she could have access to the heralded UFC Performance Institute to help her get her weight issues under control. With such a major life change, it’s possible we see a new and improved Norma Dumont in this next fight, although it’s only been a month and a half since the switch, so maybe that’s asking too much too soon.

Dumont has defended all three takedown attempts against her so far, while going 3 for 7 on her own attempts. She notably showed a dubious chin as she got dropped by a single right hand that didn’t appear to have a ton on it against Megan Anderson in her UFC debut.

Dumont carries a lot of weight in her legs, which is likely a large reason it’s so tough for her to get down to 135 lb, however, that also gives her a really solid base. She looked significantly better in her second UFC fight than her first, and could be a fighter on the rise if she can get her weight cuts sorted out.

Prior to joining the UFC, Dumont was 4-0 with two first round submission wins and two decision wins. The submission wins notably came against opponents with records of 0-0 and 0-2. She’s now 5-1 as a pro.

Fight Prediction:

Dumont will have a 1” height advantage, but Spencer will have a 1” reach advantage.

This fight will likely hinge on whether or not Spencer can get Dumont down and keep her there. So far Dumont has successfully defended the three takedown attempts against her in the UFC, but those came against Megan Anderson (25% takedown accuracy) and Ashlee Evans-Smith (23% takedown accuracy), so we probably shouldn’t reach too much into them. However, Dumont does have tree trunks for legs, so you would think her base is solid, which should help her to stay upright. If Dumont can keep this standing, she definitely appears to have better striking than Spencer, but doesn’t look to have nearly the chin. If Nunes and Cyborg couldn’t finish Spencer, it seems unlikely that Dumont will be able to, especially considering Dumont wasn’t even able to finish Ashlee Evans-Smith. We expect this fight to either end with another early Spencer finish or for Dumont to win a decision, it will really just come down to Dumont’s takedown defense. Based on Spencer’s durability we’re taking her side, but wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the other way.

There’s a good chance this fight will either end with a Spencer R1 Win (+500) or a Dumont Decision (+260), depending on how Dumont’s takedown defense holds up, so those are our two favorite lines. If you want something longer try “Spencer Wins by R1 KO” at +1600.

DFS Implications:

Spencer looks like a safer DraftKings play based on her grappling-heavy ground assault fighting style, but if she lands another first round finish, which is how she’s notched both of her UFC wins to date, then she would obviously be a great play on both sites. Spencer was absolutely dominated by Amanda Nunes in her last fight, but who hasn’t been? Hopefully that will keep Spencer’s ownership down as she’s been a major DFS contributor in her wins. Losing to Nunes is actually a great recipe for success in fighters’ next fights, almost like a donut you put on a bat where everything gets easier afterwards. While Nunes’ last two victims (Spencer and Anderson) have yet to fight again since their losses, her previous three opponents all went on to win their next fight following their losses to Nunes. Going five full rounds with Nunes not only showcased Spencer’s toughness, it likely made her tougher. If you can go five rounds with the Lioness, then you have no reason to fear anybody in the rest of the division moving forward. Spencer has never been finished as a pro and we expect that streak to continue here. The odds imply she has a 60% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

Dumont scored 103 DraftKings points and 106 points on FanDuel in her recent decision win, as she completely filled up the score sheet. However, in this matchup she appears to be a better play on FanDuel where significant strikes are more valuable, she can score from takedowns defended and she’s relatively cheaper. In Spencer’s two UFC losses, her opponents put up DraftKings/FanDuel scores of 85/117 and 126/156. The second one of those was a five round fight, but if we convert those to three round numbers they would still be 87/102. Regardless, you can see that her opponents have fared better on FanDuel. Dumont should continue that trend if she’s able to get a win here. Spencer went 0 for 15 on takedowns in her two UFC losses, while each of her opponents landed 122 or more significant strikes—just keep in mind her opponents were Cris Cyborg (3 rounds) and Amanada Nunes (5 rounds). Dumont has successfully defended all three of the takedowns attempted against her so far in the UFC and landed 94 significant strikes in her last UFC fight. This is a tough spot for Dumont to get a finish, but her cheap DFS price tag should keep her in play with a high-volume decision win—especially on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 40% chance to win, a 15% chance to get a finish and a 7% chance it comes in R1.

Fight #3

Justin Tafa

Coming off a split decision loss to Carlos Felipe, Tafa’s only UFC win came in a R1 KO of Juan Adams who went 1-3 in the UFC before being released after his third straight loss when he was knocked out by Tafa. In Tafa’s recent decision loss against Felipe, Tafa did notably lead in significant strikes 86-77, total strikes 109-77 and control time 1:53-0:41, but obviously that doesn’t tell the whole story, and Felipe actually appeared to do the most damage.

Tafa has just six pro fights to his name, with half of them coming in the UFC, and five of them ending in KOs. He won his first three pro fights on the Australian regional scene, all in the first two rounds, before surprisingly getting called up to the UFC with just three fights on his record. His UFC debut was short lived, as he was put to sleep on his feet by Yorgan De Castro with a face-planting strike 130 seconds into the match. Tafa bounced back from the loss with a R1 KO of his own over Juan Adams, before losing a close decision most recently.

Tafa is your stereotypical Heavyweight boxer who’s mostly just looking to land heavy bombs on the feet. He did mix it up a little in his last fight as he attempted two takedowns, but he failed to land either and is definitely not a grappler. Sitting at 1-2 in the UFC potentially has Tafa in the hot seat, but they appear to be struggling to find enough Heavyweights as it is, so coming off a close split decision, Tafa could have a slightly longer leash.

Jared Vanderaa

Following a November R1 KO win on DWCS, Vanderaa made a bold call out of Sergey Spivak, and Spivak accepted. Stylistically the matchup made a ton of sense, as both are rare Heavyweight grapplers, and apparently they had almost fought earlier in their careers. However, Vanderaa may have bitten off more than he could chew on that one. He started off the fight well, pushing Spivak back up against the cage, but made a vital mistake just 30 seconds in, as threw a second leg kick which Spivak caught and drove through to take Vanderaa down. Spivak controlled Vanderaa on the ground for the remainder of the round in smothering fashion. Idiotically, Vanderaa threw a head kick to start R2 and as soon as it missed, Spivak was able to take the back of Vanderaa, as his momentum swung him around, and Spivak immediately got the fight right back to the ground. He once again controlled Vanderaa on the ground for an entire round, although this time he turned up the intensity late and finished the fight with heavy ground and pound that left Vanderaa’s face a bloody mess. In the 60 seconds that this fight stayed upright, Vanderaa appeared to be holding his own and was actually the one pushing Spivak backwards early on. His problem was that he couldn’t stay off his back and looked to have no strategy for getting up once there. Vanderaa is actually a BJJ black belt, but you never would have guessed it from watching his last fight.

Vanderaa’s previous DWCS fight only lasted three and a half minutes, but he looked pretty hittable before he took the fight to the ground and finished it with his ground and pound. He did show he could take a punch, but it’s hard to take too much away from the short fight. One thing to note, Vanderaa’s opponent in that match, Harry Hunsucker, took the fight on less than a week’s notice.

Vanderaa is now 11-5 as a pro, with seven of his wins coming by KO and three by submission. He’s also been submitted twice himself, but has only been knocked out once, which came in his recent UFC debut. While six of his last seven fights have ended early, only one of his last nine have ended in the first round. He’s notably had three fights make it to the 5th round in his career, with two of those ending in decisions. So at least on paper, he seems like he has the gas tank to remain competitive later into fights.

Fight Prediction:

Vanderaa will have a 4” height advantage and massive 6” reach advantage.

Despite getting absolutely dominated in the grappling department in his last fight, Vanderaa should have the wrestling advantage here if he decides to use it. Tafa has yet to be involved in a fight that included a takedown in the UFC and looks like a one dimensional boxer who purely hunts for knockout punches—which is notable going up against a fighter in Vanderaa who has never been knocked out on the feet. This line opened way too wide with Tafa as a -200 favorite to start the week and we’ve since seen that bet down. We like Vanderaa to bounce back from his nightmare UFC debut and finish Tafa here in the first two rounds.

The best bet is “Vanderaa ITD” at +270. We also like his moneyline, although so does everyone else as it was bet down from +165 to +152 by mid week. The longer shots to look at here are “Vanderaa Wins by R1 Submission” at +2400, “Vanderaa Wins by R2 KO” at +1600 (as high as +2800 at some books), “Vanderaa Wins in R1” at +750 and “Vanderaa Wins in R2” at +1100.

DFS Implications:

Tafa is a pure R1 KO or bust play who will likely be over owned by the field. He’s failed to impress us so far in the UFC against poor competition and this looks like a prime spot for him to fail yet again. The opening odds made absolutely no sense installing Tafa as a -200 favorite and the betting market agreed as his odds were quickly bet down. We’re just praying that the field falls for his fools gold finishing line at +105 and jams him into DFS lineups so that we can pivot with the ultimate leverage play in Vanderaa. The odds imply Tafa has a 62% chance to win, a 47% chance to get a finish and a 24% chance it comes in R1. GTFO.

Ten of Vanderaa’s 11 career wins have come early, and he looks to be in an excellent position for a bounce back finish of his own in his second UFC fight. He never really had a chance to get going in his recent debut, as Spivak controlled him on the ground for 90% of the fight before finishing him late in R2. Without the threat of being taken down, Vanderaa should be able to open up his game and prove he’s the more versatile fighter in this match. If he gets in trouble on the feet, we expect Vanderaa to look for a takedown and beat Tafa up on the mat. Everything seems to be coming together perfectly for Vanderaa to be a low owned contrarian DFS play with massive upside. The odds imply he has a 38% chance to win, a 26% chance to get a finish and a 9% chance to end it in R1, but we like his chances much better than that.

Fight #2

Yan Xiaonan

Xiaonan is coming off her sixth straight UFC decision win since joining the organization in 2017. She defeated Claudia Gadelha and has now won 11 straight fights dating back to 2010, when she suffered her only career loss in her third pro fight. Xiaonan outlanded Gadelha 74-36 in significant strikes and 133-84 in total strikes, while Gadelha was only able to land two of her 10 takedown attempts. Xiaonan is a pure striker, but was forced to spend the majority of that fight defending takedowns.

A pure striker, Xiaonan won’t look to engage in offensive grappling, but we saw her land five of her six career takedowns in her second most recent fight as a defensive tactic to counter her opponent’s grappling attempts. Of note, 4 of Yan’s 6 UFC wins have notably come against struggling opponents.

In her UFC debut, Xiaonan was matched up against Kailin Curran, who came in on a three fight losing streak. Xiaonan dominated the fight on the feet and Curran’s only defense was to look to take the fight to the ground, which she did with limited success going 2 for 6 on takedowns. Xiaonan didn’t go for any takedowns of her own, but outlanded Curran 96-52 on significant strikes.

Her next fight was against Viviane Pereira who was coming off a loss, lost this fight in a decision, and then went on to lose her next fight. Neither fighter attempted a takedown in that fight, as Xiaonan won a decision while winning the significant striking battle 71-44.

Next up was Syuri Kondo, who was also coming off a loss, lost this fight in a decision, and then went on to lose her next fight. Again we saw no takedowns landed in this fight, but Xiaonan did interestingly attempt one. Xiaonan massively outstruck Kondo 150-86.

Xiaonan followed that up with a fight against Angela Hill. Hill was able to get Xiaonan to the ground once in R1, but failed on her other two attempts. Xiaonan landed her first UFC takedown in this fight on her only attempt, but it was really more of a defensive maneuver as Hill attempted to grapple. Xiaonan outlanded Hill 94-71 in significant strikes en route to another decision win.

Then, in her second most recent fight Xiaonan went up against Karolina Kowalkiewicz who came in on a three fight losing streak. Kowalkiewicz went 0 for 1 on takedowns, but surprisingly Xiaonan was 5 for 6. Most of those were defensive though as Kowalkiewicz instigated the grapple. Xiaonan has little interest in actually wrestling on the mat. After throwing Kowalkiewicz down she was typically looking to get right back up. Kowalkiewicz suffered an eye injury in the first round that appeared to give her trouble throughout the fight. Xiaonan outstruck Kowalkiewicz 93-38 in significant strikes in another decision win.

Xiaonan’s six UFC opponents have now combined to go 5 for 20 on their takedown attempts against her, although half of those came from Gadelha’s 2 for 10 performance in their recent match. Two of Xiaonan’s other five opponents didn’t actually attempt a takedown, while the other three combined to go 3 for 10.

Carla Esparza

Esparza has been involved in more close decisions than just about anybody. Six of her 13 career decisions have been split, including her last two, and several of the others could have been. Only one of Esparza’s last 10 fights has ended early, which was a 2018 R3 KO loss to Tatiana Suarez.

A former All-American D1 wrestler, Esparza is a one-dimensional grappler who comes into every fight with the game plan of taking it to the mat. Here’s how she’s faired in her takedowns beginning with her most recent fight:

5 for 9
1 for 10
4 for 11
4 for 10
0 for 2 (L)
2 for 4 (L)
2 for 9
6 for 14
4 for 10 (L)
5 for 7
1 for 17 (L)
5 for 7

So in total, Esparza has gone 39 for 110 (35%) on takedowns in her 12 UFC fights and 14 for 42 (33%) in her last five matches. She averages 6.24 missed takedowns per 15 minutes.

Esparza is a low-volume striker and has never landed above 48 significant strikes in a fight. She’s also only absorbed above 53 significant strikes once, which was when Tatiana Suarez landed 82 in a 2018 R3 KO.

Now 17-6 as a pro, Esparza does have seven finishes on her record, but six of those came before she joined the UFC and the other was in her 2014 UFC debut, notably against Rose Namajunas via R3 Rear-Naked Choke. Half of her six career losses have come early, with a 2018 R3 KO, a 2015 R2 KO and a 2010 R2 Armbar Submission.

Fight Prediction:

Xiaonan will have a 4” height advantage, but both fighters share a 63” reach.

Xiaonan is clearly the far superior striker in this match, while Esparza is lightyears ahead in grappling. So as we often see, this fight will simply come down to where it takes place. If Xiaonan can keep it standing up she’ll win, but if Esparza can consistently take it to the mat, then she should be able to win a grappling heavy decision. Esparza notably has just a 35% career takedown accuracy while Xiaonan has a 75% takedown defense. With nine of Esparza’s last 10 fights going the distance, as well as all six of Xiaonan’s UFC fights, we expect to see another decision here. Who wins it will simply come down to how much success Esparza has on takedowns and how the judges will view what we expect to be a close fight. Esparza has made a career out of stealing close decisions so it’s always hard to bet against her, but we’ll take the fighter on the 11 year winning streak here in Xiaonan to win.

The safest bet here is clearly “Fight Ends in Decision” at -350, which is about as exciting as Esparza’s standup game. However, betting three units on that will give you a free half unit bet on whichever fighter you think wins here. Esparza’s decision line is set at +150 and Xiaonan’s at +145. Considering Xiaonan is the favorite, we prefer her side there. It’s not the most exciting fight to bet, but it should allow you to safely grind out a slight profit.

DFS Implications:

Xiaonan is clearly a better play on FanDuel, where we expect her to defend multiple takedown attempts and her high number of significant strikes will be more valuable. Look for her to finish with somewhere between 5-8 takedowns defended, with the possibility for more. When you combine that with her average of 96 significant strikes landed in her six UFC fights, she has the potential to score decently on FanDuel even in a decision. However, if she puts up another lower striking total like the 74 significant strikes she landed in her last fight, then it won’t be enough to return value. She scored just 72 DraftKings points and 88 points on FanDuel in that recent decision win. Such an outcome is probably the most likely scenario, considering no one has ever landed more than 82 significant strikes on Esparza. Defending takedowns for 15 minutes tends to make it hard to land many strikes. So while Xiaonan is clearly a better FanDuel play compared to DraftKings, it’s still more likely than not that she fails to actually return value in a decision win. The odds imply she has a 55% chance to win, a 16% chance to get a finish and an 8% chance it comes in R1.

Esparza’s grappling heavy fighting style lends itself to scoring better on DraftKings based on control time and ground strikes. In her last seven decision wins, Esparza has scored 101, 55, 100, 89, 68, 108 and 104 DraftKings points. For comparison, her recent 101 point DK performance only scored 75 points on FanDuel. Her two low scoring DraftKings scores came in fights where she landed a combined three takedowns, while she landed at least four takedowns in each of her five scores of 89 or more. This will be a tougher matchup for Esparza to rack up takedowns and we could easily see her going 2 for 10, but if she can land four or more and win a decision, then there’s a good chance she returns value at her cheap DraftKings price tag, but will still not score well on FanDuel. The odds imply she has a 45% chance to win, a 12% chance to get a finish and a 5% chance to end it in R1.

Fight #1

Rob Font

Coming off an impressive R1 KO upset of Marlon Moraes, Rob Font doesn’t have an official nickname but he might as well start going by Mr. December based on his recent history. As he’s dealt with injuries and fight cancelation in recent years, Font’s last three fights have been a December 2020 R1 KO win against Marlon Moraes, a December 2019 decision win against Ricky Simon and a December 2018 decision win against Sergio Pettis. He came out victorious in his previous three December fights as well in 2016, 2013 and 2011.

In his last fight, Moraes surprisingly took Font down twice in the opening minutes, but Font was able to get back to his feet and quickly flip the script as he landed several stiff left jabs followed by heavy combinations of punches that dropped Moraes. Font then got the stoppage as he laid down heavy ground and pound. We’ve seen Moraes be a dangerous striker in the UFC, but he looked like no match for Font on the feet.

Font hadn’t fought in just over a year prior to that, after he tore his ACL in his previous decision win against Ricky Simon. In that fight he did a great job using his jab to utilize his reach advantage against Ricky Simon, while also defending takedowns well for the most part (Simon went 6 for 16) and getting up quickly when he was taken down. Font’s defensive wrestling definitely looked improved from earlier in his career.

The last time Font lost was in a July 2018 decision against Raphael Assuncao, who did a great job of slowing down the pace, controlling the distance, grappling effectively and counterpunching in the low-volume 15 minute fight. Assuncao was able to get Font down early in the second round and midway through the third as he kept Font grounded for nearly half a round both times. Font later noted that as a reason he worked on his wrestling going into the fight against Simon and it showed.

Looking at the one time Font has been finished in his career, he was actually leading Pedro Munhoz 30-20 in striking, but got caught with a feint right, left hook clean to the chin that did enough damage that it had Font desperate and looking for a takedown on Munhoz. That’s rarely a good idea, as Munhoz is known for his devastating Guillotine Choke, which he used to submit Font almost immediately. That was Munhoz’s third Guillotine Choke win in his last four fights to that point.

Font is a great boxer who puts combinations together well and has good head movement to avoid taking too much damage. He’s out landed his opponents in significant strikes in 9 of his 11 UFC fights. In those 11 UFC appearances, Font has five wins by KO (3 in R1 & 2 in R2), one win by submission (2017 R2 Guillotine Choke), and two decision wins to go along with two decision losses and one 2017 R1 Guillotine Submission loss against Pedro Munhoz. That’s the only time Font has been finished in his career.

Looking at his entire career, Font is 18-4 as a pro with 12 of those wins coming early—eight by KO and four by submission. Eight of his early wins have come in the first round (6 KOs & 2 Submissions), three have come in the second round (2 KOs & 1 Submission), while his lone third round finish was a 2012 Guillotine Choke. Six of his last seven finishes have come by KO (4 in R1 & 2 in R2), which is noteworthy for prop bets, especially when you consider Garbrandt’s last three losses were all knockouts in the first two rounds.

Font was very slow to weigh in for his last fight, but that didn’t seem to have any impact on his performance, albeit in a fight that lasted just under four minutes.

Cody Garbrandt

Finally snapping a three fight KO losing streak, Garbrandt landed a knockout of his own in his June 2020 match against a 38-year-old Raphael Assuncao, who had defeated Font in a decision two years earlier. Garbrandt was finally able to keep his ego in check and actually use his brain in a fight and he did a good job of beating up the lead leg of Assuncao early in the match. He then caught Assuncao with a right cross with just over a minute left in the second round that dropped Assuncao to a knee, at which point Garbrandt appeared to turn up the intensity. Just a second before the round ended, Assuncao had Garbrandt pushed up against the cage and with a Street Fighter like windup, Garbrandt ducked down and pulled a fireball right hand out from behind his knee that landed perfectly to the chin of Assuncao, face planting him to the mat as the horn sounded. The walk off KO was impressive, but it did notably come in an ultra low-volume fight where Garbrandt narrowly led in significant strikes 19-17 after nine minutes and 59 seconds of action. Neither fighter attempted a takedown and we saw just three seconds of control time, so the low volume had nothing to do with any grappling as the fight was a tactical feeling out process on the feet. The majority of the strikes landed were leg kicks with Assuncao leading 11-10 in that category. Garbrandt finished ahead just 9-6 on significant strikes to the body and head.

That was Garbrandt’s first win since December 2016 when he defeated Dominick Cruz in a five round decision for the Bantamweight belt. Garbrandt didn’t hang onto the belt for long, as he lost it in his next fight to a juiced up TJ Dillashaw, who knocked Garbrandt out in the second round. Garbrandt actually dropped Dillashaw at the end of the first round and looked to have him badly hurt as Dillashaw stumbled back to his corner. However, Dillashaw turned the tables in the second round as he dropped Garbrandt with a head kick 90 seconds in. Garbrandt was able to quickly recover, but that clearly represented a change in momentum. A minute later Dillashaw connected with a clean right hook to the chin of Garbrandt as the two began trading in a phone booth. Garbrandt was badly hurt as he dropped to the canvas and Dillashaw jumped on top and finished the fight with ground and pound.

They ran it back nine months later in August 2018 and Dillashaw made even shorter work of Garbrandt, knocking him out late in the first round. Garbrandt got overly aggressive midway through the round and made the same mistake he had made in their first match thinking he could win by chaotically trading at close distance. And once again Dillashaw was the one left standing as he dropped Garbrandt with another right hand. Garbrandt was able to briefly return to his feet, before Dillashaw knocked him down again 30 seconds later. Garbrandt was completely out of it at that point and running purely on survival instincts, but he did stagger back to his feet as Dillashaw continued to rain down punches and Herb Dean then stopped the fight on the feet.

Following the pair of KO losses to Dillashaw, Garbrandt took on Pedro Munhoz in March 2019. The majority of the first round was spent with the two feeling each other out and throwing kicks from distance but things heated up in the final minute. Garbrandt ended up on his back following an exchange that he claimed ended in a headbutt, but was able to get back to his feet not long after. He then landed a flying knee that got him so excited that he made the same mistake he had in his previous two fights looking to stand and trade in close quarters with absolutely no defense. Everytime he gets in that situation it plays out the same way. Garbrandt over bets his hand and starts swinging wild haymakers while his opponents keep their hands up and respond with more calculated strikes while still defending themselves. That leaves Garbrandt’s chin completely exposed while most of his punches are at least partially blocked by his opponents. And for the third straight fight, we saw why that’s an idiotic way to come into fights—even if it can be entertaining for those of us watching. The fight ended with Garbrandt again getting dropped with a right hook to his chin and then finished with ground and pound.

Prior to going pro in 2012, Garbrandt had a background in amateur boxing as well as some experience playing football and wrestling in high school. He’ll mix in leg kicks, but he only has one takedown in his last eight fights and is really looking to keep fights on the feet. His most valuable attribute is his speed and while he does have solid power it has gotten him into trouble more often than not thinking he can simply overwhelm his opponents with blitzes of strikes. His combination of speed, power and a fragile chin make for low-volume fights with more anticipation than actual time spent trading. In his 10 UFC fights he’s landed an average of just 3.35 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 3.33 per minute. He’s never landed more than 68 significant strikes and that came in his five round decision win. In that fight, Cruz actually came out ahead with 88 significant strikes, but Garbrandt landed a pair of knockdowns. Garbrandt has impressively averaged 1.3 knockdowns in his seven UFC wins. Outside of those 88 significant strikes landed by Cruz, no one has ever landed more than 45 significant strikes on Garbrandt.

Eight of his 10 UFC fights have ended in knockouts (5-3), with five of those ending in the first round (3-2), two in the second round (1-1) and one in the third (1-0). He won both of his UFC fights to go the distance, one in 2015 in his second UFC fight and the other in the five round title fight against Cruz in 2016. Those are the only two times Garbrandt has gone the distance in his entire pro career, as all five of his pro fights prior to joining the UFC ended in KO wins (4 in R1 & 1 in R2). His overall pro record is 12-3, with 10 KO wins, two by decision and three KO losses.

Garbrandt has never been taken down in the UFC, but he’s also only had to defend nine attempts and seven of those came from Dominick Cruz (46% career takedown accuracy). While Garbrandt landed four takedowns of his own in his first two UFC fights, he’s only landed one since in his last eight fights.

Fight Prediction:

Both fighters are 5’8” but Font will have a massive 6” reach advantage.

Looking to solidify their spots near the top of the Bantamweight division we get the #3 ranked Font looking to fend off the #4 ranked Garbrandt. This will just be Font’s second scheduled five round fight of his career, and first in the UFC. His only other scheduled five rounder came prior to joining the UFC in 2013 and ended with a first round KO win. So Font has never been in a fight that lasted longer than 15 minutes. On the other side of things, this will be Garbrandt’s fifth five round fight in the UFC, however only one of those made it past the second round. His first came in 2016 against Thomas Almeida, who Garbrandt knocked out in the first round. Then Garbrandt defeated Dominick Cruz in a 2016 five round decision for the Bantamweight belt. Following that, he was knocked out in the 2nd and 1st rounds of title fights against TJ Dillashaw of his last two five rounders. So he’s only been past the third round once.

This sets up primarily as a boxing match with Garbrandt mixing in leg strikes and Font potentially sprinkling in a couple of takedown attempts. Font is pretty heavy on his lead leg so it would make sense for Garbrandt to attack it early on, especially considering that Font will have a noticeable reach advantage which he utilizes well with a stiff left jab. That jab should give Garbrandt trouble, but Garbrandt will have the speed advantage if he can get past it. While Font has never been knocked out, he’s definitely been hurt before, so he’s far from invincible, but we’ll still take his chin over Garbrandt’s any day. Font also throws more volume, occasionally mixes in takedowns and has a higher fight IQ, so overall we like him better as a fighter. We like Font to jab Garbrandt up until he gets frustrated and tries to turn this into a brawl, at which point we’ll bet against Garbrandt’s chin. We expect a slow start to the first round with action picking up late, followed by a R2 KO win for Font.

We like this fight to end with a knockout in the first two rounds, and while we expect Font to win, we see some value in having action on “Fight Ends in R1 KO” at +330 and “Fight Ends in R2 KO” at +500 which will cover you in the case Garbrandt is able to finish Font. However, we also like Font’s R1 and R2 Win lines at +550 and +850 respectively.

DFS Implications:

Font has been a consistent DFS producer with DraftKings scores of 119, 73, 100, 115, 114, 121 and 109. The only time he’s scored less than 100 points in a win came in a grappling defensive decision over Ricky Simon, where Font was constantly defending takedowns. Font has landed at least one takedown in six of his 11 UFC fights, but has never landed more than two and is primarily a boxer. He also has six knockdowns since joining the UFC and landed 90 or more significant strikes in his last two fights that went three rounds. However, this sets up for lower volume as a good portion of Garbrandt’s fights are spent posturing and feinting. Font should be able to land his jab well, which will allow him to take the lead in strikes and still keep him in play beyond the first round. There’s also a decent chance he tacks on a takedown or two and a KO win would include at least one knockdown. Garbrandt has notably been knocked down five times in his last three losses and appears prone to being on the wrong end of multi knockdown performances. Overall, Font is a much better DFS play than Garbrandt, and we expect their ownership to be very close. The odds imply he has a 52% chance to win, a 37% chance to get a finish and an 11% chance to end it in R1.

Garbrandt is a R1 KO or bust fighter who lacks the volume or grappling stats to score well beyond that. He’s coming off a last second R2 KO win that still scored just 88 DraftKings points. He only scored 84 points in a 2016 five round decision win, despite landing two knockdowns and a takedown. He also has a R3 KO earlier in his career that scored just 91 points, which is the most points he’s ever scored in a fight that made it past the first round. His three R1 KO wins in the UFC scored 130, 109 and 105 points on DraftKings. Font absorbs a below average number of significant strikes and will have a significant 6” reach advantage that should help to keep Garbrandt at bay, so there’s no reason to think Garbrandt will land an abnormally high number of strikes here. And while Garbrandt has averaged an impressive 1.3 knockdowns in his seven UFC wins, Font has notably never been knocked down in 11 UFC fights. The only argument to be made for Garbrandt remaining in play outside of a first round finish is his price tag, which checks in at $7,900 on DraftKings, but somehow $20 on FanDuel. A score in the high 80’s or low 90’s still has the potential to sneak into the optimal lineup, but it’s unlikely. Garbrandt is coming off a highlight reel knockout victory, which should drive his ownership up well beyond his chances of returning value, making him an even more appealing fade. The odds imply Garbrandt has a 48% chance to win, a 33% chance to get a finish and a 10% chance it comes in R1.

Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma