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Fighter Notes:
Fight #11
Tamires Vidal
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Ten months removed from a R1 TKO win in her UFC debut against a terrible Ramona Pascual, Vidal has won six straight fights, but that stat should come with an asterisk. She was getting mauled by Ailin Perez in the infamous warehouse fight, before Perez was DQ’d for landing an illegal knee. Vidal then landed a second round heel hook in the LFA against a one-dimensional striker, which was enough for the UFC to bring her on. Following the win in her UFC debut, Vidal had been scheduled to face Hailey Cowan in March, but ended up dropping out.
Now 7-1 as a pro, Vidal has one TKO win, two submissions, three decision victories, and one DQ win. Both of those submission wins ended in the second round, while her lone TKO came in the first round of her last fight. Her only loss was a 2019 R3 submission against UFC fighter Karol Rosa in Vidal’s second pro fight. Vidal started her career at 145 lb, where she went 4-0, before dropping down to 135 lb in 2021, where she’s gone 3-1, but would be 2-2 had it not been for her DQ win.
Overall, Vidal is a low-level fighter who doesn’t land a ton of striking volume but has okay power. She throws wild looping right hands but doesn’t connect on many of them. She’s a BJJ brown belt who will look for occasional takedowns, and she has no problem forfeiting top position to lean back into guillotine or heel hook attempts. The two times Vidal faced legitimate UFC-level competition were when she got submitted by Karol Rosa and won via DQ against Ailin Perez in a fight Vidal was losing badly. And no, Ramona Pascual is not a UFC-level fighter. Vidal is still only 25 years old, so maybe we’ll see some improvements from her after nearly a year away, but our expectations are pretty low.
Montserrat Rendon
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut with a brief but perfect pro record, Rendon turned pro almost exactly three years ago, but now hasn’t fought in almost exactly a year after her last fight got canceled back in March. She’s coming off a close split decision win with Invicta and it’s surprising the UFC saw enough there to bring her straight onto the roster. After making her pro debut in September 2020, Rendon competed in a couple of grappling matches, winning a decision and then getting submitted by TUF winner, Juliana Miller. Rendon then returned to MMA in October 2021 and won four straight decisions over the next 12 months.
Now 5-0 as a pro, Rendon has won decisions in all five of her pro fights, but hasn’t faced much in the way of competition. Her last win came against Brittney Cloudy, who came in 4-4 and is the most experienced fighter Rendon has faced.
Overall, Rendon is primarily a striker, but will mix in occasional takedown attempts. While she throws a decent amount of volume, she doesn’t have much power and hasn’t been especially impressive anywhere. She’s barely scraped by against low-level regional opponents, but is active enough on the feet to keep fights competitive. She would have benefited from a couple more years on the regional scene and likely being brought into the UFC a little early. The only problem with that is that she’s already 34 years old, after not turning pro until she was 31, so by the time she would have had enough experience to be ready for the UFC she would have been old enough to retire.
Fight Prediction:
Rendon will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 68” reach. Vidal is nine years younger than the 34-year-old Rendon.
This is such a low-level fight and neither of those two belong in the UFC. Vidal has advantages in power and grappling, while Rendon is the busier striker. So Vidal is the more likely of the two to land a finish, most likely by submission, but if this plays out entirely on the feet then we could see Rendon outland her way to a close decision win. However, Vidal should be landing the bigger shots, so it would all come down to how the judges weigh volume versus damage. The other factor to consider will be how much grappling success Vidal can find, which could help to swing a decision in her favor. We’ll tentatively lean towards Vidal winning either by submission or more likely in a close decision, but this is such a gross fight and we wish we could bet against both of them.
Our favorite bet here is “Fight Ends in Split Decision” at +350.
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DFS Implications:
Vidal scored 109 DraftKings points in a R1 TKO in her UFC debut against a terrible Ramona Pascual, which is the only time one of Vidal’s pro fights ended in the first round and the first knockout of her career. Vidal generally doesn’t land a ton of striking volume, but will mix in takedowns and submission attempts. However, she hasn’t shown the ability to dominate on the mat to the extent that she could score well in a decision and at her expensive price tag she’s reliant on landing a finish to return value. And with that in mind, she only has the one TKO win and her two submission victories came against an opponent fighting professionally for the first and only time and a one-dimensional boxer who had no idea what to do on the ground. Vidal’s striking looks basically limited to a big overhand right and she doesn’t have great cardio. The odds imply Vidal has a 68% chance to win, a 25% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Rendon has done nothing to impress us on the regional scene and barely escaped her last fight with a split decision win against a 4-4 opponent. However, the show must go on and the UFC is in the churn and burn business so it’s easy for them to justify giving a 5-0 fighter a shot. Anyways, Rendon throws a decent amount of volume and will occasionally look for takedowns, but hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat, hence all five of her pro wins going the distance even against low-level regional opponents. While her striking volume leaves her with a decent floor when she wins, she hasn’t shown any sort of ceiling and will now be facing an opponent who will be looking to land big right hands, while mixing in some grappling. That will make it tough for Rendon to sit there and rack up volume and may force her to be a bit more tactical. That’s not encouraging for her DFS scoring potential and the best she can hope for is to serve as a value play at her cheap price tag. The odds imply Rendon has a 32% chance to win, a 10% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #10
Mizuki
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Finally making her return to the Octagon after three years away, Mizuki lost a decision to Amanda Lemos in August 2020 and then tore her ACL a month later. She had surgery to repair her knee in October 2020, but it’s unclear why it took her as long as it did to return to action. Prior to losing to Lemos, Mizuki won a split decision in her 2019 UFC debut against Wu Yanan, despite trailing 93-123 in significant strikes, with no takedowns landed on either side. Yanan missed weight by 3 lb for the fight, but still outlanded Mizuki in all three rounds.
Now 14-6 as a pro, Mizuki has nine submission wins and five decision victories. Her last four fights all went the distance and she hasn’t finished anybody since 2016, when she landed three straight armbar submissions. She’s never been finished herself, with five of her losses going the distance and another ending in a DQ. She’s faced a lot of tough competition, with her last four losses coming in decisions against Amanda Lemos, Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, with two of those being split.
Overall, Mizuki is a karate black belt with a background in kickboxing, but she also loves to throw up armbars, which is how she finished eight of her nine submission wins. She also spent half her last fight pushing Amanda Lemos up against the cage, so she has no problem working out of the clinch. Mizuki trains at Serra-Longo fight team in New York with a bunch of high-level wrestlers, although not many female UFC fighters. In her two UFC fights, she failed to land any of her five takedown attempts, while her opponents got her down on two of their six attempts (66.7% defense). It will be interesting to see how Mizuki looks after so long away and how much ring rust she has to knock off.
Hannah Goldy
5th UFC Fight (1-3)Fourteen months removed from a first round knockout loss to Molly McCann, it’s surprising that Goldy is even still on the roster after starting out 1-3 in the UFC. Prior to the loss to McCann, Goldy notched her only UFC win in a first round submission against Emily Whitmire, who has been submitted in all five of her pro losses. Leading up to that win, Goldy lost a pair of decisions in her first two UFC fights. She made her debut in 2019 and lost to a suspect, debuting Miranda Grangerm who went on to lose her next three UFC fights. Goldy then dropped out of her next three booked matches, before returning in 2021 to lose a decision to Diana Belbita, who is currently 2-3 in the UFC.
Now 6-3 as a pro, Goldy has one win by TKO, one submission, and four decisions. Her lone TKO win came in the second round of her second pro fight, while one submission win came in the first round. The only time she’s ever been finished was in her recent R1 TKO, after her previous two losses both went the distance. While her last two fights both ended in the first round, her previous five all went the distance. Goldy has gone back and forth between 115 lb and 125 lb throughout her pro career. She made her pro debut at 115 lb and won a decision over Gillian Robertson, but then moved up to 125 lb for her next three fights, before dropping back down to 115 lb when she went on DWCS. She then moved back up to 125 lb for the loss in her UFC debut, before dropping back down to 115 lb for her next loss. Then she moved back up to 125 lb for her last two fights, but will now once again be cutting down to 115 lb. That lack of consistency can’t be helping things and she would be wise to pick a weight class and allow her body to actually adjust to it.
Overall, Goldy is primarily a striker who relies heavily on kicks, largely out of necessity due to her 61” T-Rex reach. She’s also been incorporating more grappling recently and after she didn’t attempt any takedowns in her UFC debut or her DWCS match, she landed two of her 11 attempts in her last three fights (18.2% accuracy), and also landed the only submission of her career over that recent stretch. On the other side of things, she’s been taken down by her opponents on four of their nine attempts (55.6% defense). After a long layoff and dropping down a weight class, it will be important to monitor Goldy closely at weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Goldy will have a 1” height advantage, but Mizuki will have a 4” reach advantage.
This fight is chalked full of uncertainty as Mizuki is coming off ACL surgery and a three year layoff and Goldy is dropping down a weight class following a 14 month layoff and her first knockout loss. It’s hard to know what to expect from Mizuki after all this time away, but she’s historically either finished opponents with armbars or fought to close decisions. Goldy doesn’t have much in the way of arm to bar, so we’re more inclined to think this goes the distance and ends in a close decision. They’ve both been pretty hittable, with Goldy averaging 4.95 SSA/min and Mizuki averaging a whopping 6.87 SSA/min. While absorbing less strikes, Goldy has also landed more than Mizuki (5.78 SSL/min vs. 5.00 SSL/min). So the striking numbers favor Goldy, and Mizuki’s extremely long layoff is concerning. That’s enough for us to have no interest in laying chalk on Mizuki and instead has us considering taking Goldy at her long odds in a volatile spot, as female underdogs have historically been very profitable. While we don’t have any real confidence in Goldy based on what she’s shown on tape, the numbers make sense and we’ll take a small stab at her here and just hope she wins a close decision.
Our favorite bet here is “Goldy’s ML” at +265.
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DFS Implications:
Mizuki has fought to four straight decisions going back to her Invicta days and she hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. She scored 70 DraftKings points in a split decision win in her UFC debut and then 51 points in a decision loss in her last fight. However, she tore her ACL after that 2020 defeat and now hasn’t fought in three years, so it’s hard to know how she’ll look here. While she lands a decent amount of striking volume, she failed to land any of her five takedown attempts in her two UFC fights and has never knocked anybody out. At her high price tag, it will be tough for her to return value without a well timed finish. And even if she does lock up another armbar, she’ll still have to outscore the other high priced options. The only positive she has going for her is that she projects to be low owned, which is especially valuable in large tournaments on this smaller slate. The odds imply Mizuki has a 72% chance to win, a 23% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Goldy is just 1-3 in the UFC, but scored 98 DraftKings in a first round submission in her lone UFC win. Just keep in mind, that came against the highly submittable Emily Whitmire and Goldy is more of a striker than a grappler. However, Goldy has started looking for more takedowns recently, which both adds to her theoretical upside but could also get her into trouble against an armbar specialist like Mizuki. If the fight stays standing, Mizuki averages the highest number of significant strikes absorbed on the slate at 6.87/min, and at Goldy’s cheap price tag she has the potential to serve as a value play even if she doesn’t put up a huge score. With Mizuki coming off ACL surgery and a three year layoff, and Goldy dropping down a weight class following a 14 month layoff and her first knockout loss, this is a volatile fight that could go a lot of ways, so we don’t mind taking a shot on Goldy at her cheap price tag. The odds imply Goldy has a 28% chance to win, an 8% chance to land a finish, and a 3% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #9
Mohammed Usman
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)Usman is coming off a wrestling-heavy decision win over a one-dimensional kickboxer in Junior Tafa, where Usman only landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts, but finished with 12 minutes of control time as he hung on for dear life for 25 minutes. Usman only landed seven significant strikes in the fight, while Tafa landed 22. Prior to that, Usman landed an early R2 KO win on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter, which is his only early win since 2019. That came against a career Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga, who only moved up to Heavyweight to be on the show and moved back down to 205 lb for his next fight. Usman dropped Pauga with a non-chanlant left hand that says more about Pauga’s chin than Usman’s power. Both of Usman’s previous wins on TUF went the distance and despite his imposing physique he hasn’t been any sort of dominant finisher. Just prior to going on the show, Usman got dropped twice and then submitted in the second round of a 2021 PFL fight, after winning a decision in 2020. That PFL loss came against a 40-year-old Brandon Sayles, who hadn’t fought in three and a half years leading up to that fight and was knocked out in his only match since.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Usman has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and three decision wins. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been submitted once and has one decision loss. All six of Usman’s early wins occurred in the first six minutes of fights, with the first five ending in round one. Both of his submission victories ended in kimuras in his first two pro fights against opponents with losing records and his last four finishes all ended in knockout. Only five of his nine wins have come against opponents with winning records and he has a 2018 decision loss to Don'Tale Mayes on his resume.
Overall, Usman is a muscle-bound Heavyweight who’s overly reliant on landing big right hand bombs and doesn’t put up much in the way of striking volume. He looks more dangerous than he actually is and he barely made it past two unimpressive Heavyweights to reach the TUF finals, where he defeated a career long Light Heavyweight in Zac Pauga. Usman has also looked somewhat chinny and at 34 years old we doubt he’s improving much at this stage in his career. He has a football background, as he played Defensive End at University of Arizona, but he also wrestled in high-school. He will shoot for takedowns in the right matchup, and relied heavily on his wrestling in his last fight, but don’t be mistaken, his wrestling is nothing like his brother’s. In his two UFC matches, he landed just 2 of his 13 takedown attempts (15.4% accuracy), while no one has tried to take him down. Usman’s nickname is “The Motor” and he’s got decent cardio for a big guy, which should be useful in this next matchup.
Jake Collier
14th UFC Fight (5-8)Desperate for a win, Collier has lost three straight fights and is just 2-5 since moving up to Heavyweight in 2020. His only wins at Heavyweight came against a terrible Chase Sherman and a washed up Gian Villante, who had also just moved up to Heavyweight after similarly deciding he preferred eating to winning. Collier started his career all the way down at Middleweight, where he went 2-2 in his first four UFC fights. Then he moved up to Light Heavyweight for two fights in 2017, where he went 1-1. Collier then took the next three years off, during which he ballooned up to 265 lb, before returning in 2020 to face a debuting Tom Aspinall in Collier’s first career fight at Heavyweight. Aspinall easily knocked Collier out in 45 seconds, but Collier bounced back with a decision win over Villiante and then arguably beat Carlos Felipe but had a split decision go in Felipe’s favor. Collier then submitted Chase Sherman in the first round, before losing another close split decision to Andrei Arlovski. After trading wins and losses for the first 11 fights of his UFC career, Collier then suffered his first losing streak with the organization when he got finished in a second round TKO against Chris Barnett, where Collier completely gassed out after nearly finishing Barnett in round one. Those cardio concerns continued in his last fight, as Collier started strong against Martin Buday, winning the first round on all three scorecards, but gassed out in round two and lost each of the later rounds to lose another decision. So Collier has lost the last three decisions he’s been to, with two of those being split. The last time Collier knocked anybody out was all the way back in 2016 when he was still fighting at Middleweight.
Now 13-9 as a pro, Collier has five wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and four decision victories. He’s been knocked out four times, submitted once, and has four decision losses. While 14 of Collier’s 22 pro fights have ended early, six of his last nine have gone the distance since he moved up from 185 lb.
Overall, Collier’s best asset is his volume, but he has also started looking for occasional takedowns lately. After failing to land a takedown on just one attempt in his first three fights up at Heavyweight, he’s landed four on seven attempts in his last four matches. Four of his eight UFC losses have come by knockout, although two of those were down at 185 lb and another was against Tom Aspinall in Collier’s first fight at Heavyweight, which occurred following a nearly three year layoff. Collier has only finished 2 of his 13 UFC opponents and hasn’t looked especially dangerous overall, but if he continues to mix in more grappling he could end up being more of a finishing threat on the mat than the feet as so many lower level Heavyweights struggle on the ground. However, his cardio may be his biggest obstacle to overcome, as he’s gassed out in the second round in each of his last two fights.
Fight Prediction:
Collier will have a 1” height advantage, while Usman will have a 1” reach advantage.
This is a low-level Heavyweight fight between two unimpressive fighters. Collier is a blown up Middleweight who’s carrying a ton of extra weight and all of that shows in his terrible cardio and general lack of power. Meanwhile, Usman is in great shape and is sort of well rounded, but just isn’t very good at anything and has a suspect chin. Usman showed a willingness to wrestle in his last fight, but only landed 2 of his 12 takedown attempts against a one-dimensional kickboxer and did nothing with the two takedowns he did land. No one has even tried to take Collier down at Heavyweight, so it’s hard to gauge how good his takedown defense is at the weight class, but he did get taken down 10 times in his six UFC fights prior to moving up to Heavyweight. So maybe Usman can take him down, but Usman hasn’t looked very dangerous on the mat when he has landed takedowns and is more so just looking to win minutes. Collier is the more active striker, so wrestling would be one way for Usman to overcome that and help his case in a decision. We’re also curious to see if Collier looks to pace himself more here after gassing out early in his last two fights. Usman is often looking to slow fights down, and doesn’t set a very high striking pace, which could also help Collier to preserve his limited gas tank. While Usman’s suspect chin and Collier’s bad cardio create the potential for a finish on either side, neither guy has looked that dangerous and we like this fight to end in a close decision. If Collier can avoid gassing out, he should be able to outland his way to victory, but that will be tougher if he’s sucking wind by the start of round two. The UFC would also much prefer to build up another Usman and former TUF winner than have Collier win a close decision if you want to go into the sketchy decision narrative side of things. Ultimately, in a close, low-level fight, we’d rather be holding the plus money ticket so we’ll lean towards Collier winning a close decision, but we definitely don’t feel great about it. If you want to bet Usman, it may make the most sense to do it right as round one is ending, as Collier has been starting strong and fading after the first round in recent fights.
Our favorite bet here is “Usman/Collier FGTD” at +100.
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DFS Implications:
Usman is coming off a wrestling-heavy decision where he attempted 12 takedowns and finished with 12 minutes of control time, but only landed two of those 12 attempts and finished with just seven total significant strikes landed in the match. That resulted in him only scoring 79 DraftKings points and 36 points on FanDuel. Prior to that, he landed a second round knockout that was only good for 85 DraftKings points and 94 points on FanDuel and his lack of striking volume and consistently kept him from scoring well in otherwise favorable situations. Working in Usman’s favor here, Collier has gassed out after the first round in each of his last two fights and it’s easy to rack up points beating upon a corpse. However, Usman doesn’t push much of a pace and Collier has shown the ability to go three rounds when he paces himself, so maybe Collier will come in a little more patiently after emptying the tank early in his last two outings. That leaves a somewhat wide range of potential outcomes in this low-level Heavyweight bout, and neither of these two have been very impressive. Usman will likely need a well timed knockout to really score well and the only opponent he’s knocked out since 2019 is Zac Pauga, a career Light Heavyweight. The odds imply Usman has a 56% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Collier lands a good amount of striking volume, averaging 5.81 SSL/min, and has begun mixing in more takedowns recently, but has gone just 2-5 since moving up to Heavyweight in 2020 and only has one early win since 2016. That makes it tough to get excited about playing him and he only scored 80 DraftKings points in his last decision victory. Collier gassed out after the first round in each of his last two fights, which resulted in him losing both matches after a pair of strong starts. That could result in him looking to pace himself more here and Usman is a lower volume striker who will also aid in slowing the fight down. That would make it tougher for Collier to land the amount of strikes he would need to score well in a decision and would leave him more reliant on landing a rare finish. Working in his favor, Usman has looked pretty Chinny, but we’ve yet to see Collier knock anyone out at Heavyweight. Collier’s cheaper price tag keeps him in the value play discussion, but there’s a good chance this ends in a lower scoring decision. The odds imply Collier has a 44% chance to win, a 27% chance to land a finish, and a 16% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #8
Jacob Malkoun
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Malkoun had been scheduled to face Robert Bryczek, but he dropped out as Brundage was announced as the replacement on September 5th, with 18 days to prepare.
After getting knocked out just 18 seconds into his 2020 UFC debut against Phil Hawes, Malkoun has fought to four straight wrestling-heavy decisions, winning three of those and arguably getting robbed in the one loss. That lone decision defeat came against Brendan Allen, who Malkoun took down seven times and controlled for over seven minutes, while the striking numbers were close, with Allen finishing ahead 45-33 in significant strikes and 89-66 in total strikes. Malkoun bounced back from the loss with a win in his last fight over a fellow wrestler in Nick Maximov. Although it can’t be overlooked that Maximov suffered a leg injury in the first round that left him extremely compromised for the rest of the match.
Now 7-2 as a pro, Malkoun has two wins by TKO and five decision victories. Both of his TKO wins occurred in his first three pro fights and his last four wins have all gone the distance. He has one KO loss and one decision defeat.
Overall, Malkoun is a relentless wrestler, but hasn’t looked like any sort of finishing threat at the UFC level, as he’s content with grinding out decisions on the mat. He hasn’t shown much in the way of striking and a suspect chin and he’s also never landed a submission in his career. Despite his wrestling heavy approach, Malkoun had a short stint in pro boxing, winning all three of his matches, but you wouldn’t guess it by watching him fight. In his five UFC fights, he landed 30 of his 67 takedown attempts (44.8% accuracy), landing six or more takedowns in all of his last four fights. The only opponent to try and take him down was Brendan Allen, who landed both of his attempts.
Cody Brundage
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Stepping in on short notice yet again, Brundage has lost three straight fights and is coming off an absolutely dreadful performance in a decision loss to Sedriques Dumas. Brundage repeatedly jumped guillotine in the fight, despite having the wrestling advantage. It was one of those frustrating fights where everyone watching was just saying, “This idiot can’t possibly be going for another guillotine…andddd he did it again.” Just like this next fight, Brundage took that last one on short notice, but apparently didn’t learn his lesson. Eight weeks prior to that loss, Brundage got submitted in the second round by Rodolfo Vieira, after getting knocked out in the first round of a December 2022 match against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Leading up to those three losses, Brundage landed two first round finishes of his own, although he nearly got himself in one of them before pulling off a hail mary guillotine against Dalcha Lungiambula. Brundage’s one other UFC fight was a wrestling-heavy decision loss to Nick Maximov in his short notice UFC debut.
Now 8-5 as a pro, Brundage has four wins by KO/TKO, three submissions, and one decision victory. Five of his seven finishes occurred in the first round, while he also has one in round two and another in round three. He’s been knocked out in two of his losses, submitted once, and has two decision defeats. Both of his knockout losses occurred in round one, while his submission defeat came in round two. One of those KO losses came on DWCS in 2020 against William Knight. That fight took place at 205 lb and Brundage has fought anywhere from 185 lb to 205 lb throughout his career, but his last seven fights have all been at 185 lb and he claims he could even make 170 lb if he really needed to (Spoiler: He may need to soon).
Overall, Brundage is a former college wrestler, who has been working on improving his striking and has decent power. He’s got an unbelievably low fight IQ and makes some of the worst choices you’ll ever see inside of the Octagon. However, he’s still relatively early in his career with just 13 pro fights to his name, and he only turned pro in 2019. Brundage is married to former UFC fighter Amanda Bobby Brundage who went 2-4 with the organization before being released, and best friends with Collin Anglin, who went 0-2 in the UFC and then lost two more after getting cut. Neither of them fight anymore and who knows, maybe Brundage is just over it as well. Between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, Brundage landed 8 takedowns on 17 attempts (47.1% accuracy), while he’s been taken down by his opponents 6 times on 23 attempts (73.9% defense). Despite training at altitude at Factory X, his cardio has appeared suspect at times, but that hasn’t stopped him from accepting one short notice fight after the next. This is the final fight on his contract, and he’ll be fighting for his job after losing his last three fights.
Fight Prediction:
Brundage will have a 3” height advantage, but Malkoun will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both of these two come from wrestling backgrounds, but Malkoun has looked much better on the mat, while Brundage is the superior finisher. That’s not saying a whole lot considering Malkoun couldn’t finish a hot meal, but Brundage has shown the ability to both knock opponents out and submit them. He loves looking for guillotines, often to a fault, but also has a couple of arm-triangle chokes on his record. Malkoun got starched in just 18 seconds in his UFC debut, so Brundage’s knockout power keeps him in play for finding a finish on the feet, especially if his defensive wrestling holds up to some extent. Brundage faced a similar matchup in his UFC debut against Nick Maximov and got taken down 4 times on 15 attempts and controlled for nine and a half minutes as he lost a unanimous 29-28 decision. The most likely outcome is that this next match plays out similarly, and we’d be surprised to see Brundage out wrestle Malkoun. For Brundage to win, he’ll likely need to find a finish, but we’re taking Malkoun to win by decision.
Our favorite bet here is “FGTD” at +100.
Check out our premium betting content on patreon.com/mmadfs for all of our other top bets and to be notified throughout the week when and where these lines are available.
DFS Implications:
Malkoun is a one-dimensional wrestler who hasn’t shown any sort of finishing ability, but he dominates opponents on the mat and puts up big takedown numbers and huge amounts of control time. All three of his UFC wins went the distance, but he averaged a ridiculous 125 DraftKings points in those fights and 107 points on FanDuel. While his style of fighting is better suited to the DraftKings scoring system, he’s still scored pretty well on FanDuel through sheer takedown volume. His three wins returned DK/FD scores of 131/124, 129/104, and 115/94. Just keep in mind, two of his wins came against strikers and the other was against an injured wrestler in his last fight. The one time he faced a fellow grappler who wasn’t compromised was when he lost a controversial decision to Brendan Allen. However, even if the decision had gone his way there, he would have scored “only” 98 DraftKings points and 82 points on FanDuel. Now Malkoun will face another wrestler in Cody Brundage, so it will be interesting to see if we get a similar result. While Malkoun has a really solid floor, as long as he doesn’t get finished, this could be a tougher spot for him to completely dominate the fight the way he did in his three wins. And as the most expensive fighter on the card, if we see similar production to the Allen fight, then Malkoun could get priced out of winning lineups. Nevertheless, he’s shown a massive floor and ceiling combination in the past and the other expensive options on this slate are all pretty terrible when it comes to DFS scoring. That should result in Malkoun being incredibly popular, as the field is allergic to leaving salary on the table. The odds imply Malkoun has an 83% chance to win, a 42% chance to land a finish, and a 21% chance it comes in round one.
Brundage has been a boom or bust DFS option, with DraftKings scores of 115 and 98 in his two wins, while failing to top 25 points in any of his four losses. He looked like he was trying to lose his last fight as he jumped guillotine over and over again in a fight he should have been able to dominate from top position on the mat. It looked like he had no interest in even being there and we expected him to either retire or get cut after that abysmal performance. Apparently he still had one more fight on his contract and the UFC is giving him one final chance here. While Brundage may have the worst fight IQ of anyone in the UFC, he at least has a wrestling background and finishing ability both on the feet and the mat. After his recent wretched performance, we can’t imagine many people will be getting in line to click his name, so he at least offers leverage in tournaments off of the incredibly popular Malkoun. We don’t see Brundage out wrestling Malkoun, but there’s always a chance he could finish him and Malkoun got knocked out in just 18 seconds in his UFC debut. It’s at least worth having some exposure in tournaments, but we certainly don’t have a ton of confidence in Brundage here. The odds imply Brundage has a 17% chance to win, a 12% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #7
Andre Fialho
7th UFC Fight (2-4)Continuing to struggle, Fialho has been knocked out in the later rounds in three straight fights. The most recent of those losses came from a head kick late in round two against Joaquin Buckley in a low-volume fight. Prior to that, he got finished in the third round by a 38-year-old Muslim Salikhov after getting knocked out by Jake Matthews in round two just before that. Matthews notably hadn’t knocked anybody out since 2015 going into that November 2022 match. Fialho made his short notice UFC debut in January 2022 when he lost a decision to Michel Pereira, but bounced back with a first round knockout win over Miguel Baeza in April. Then just three weeks later, he landed another first round knockout against a debuting Cameron VanCamp. That breakneck pace appeared to catch up with him at that point as he then got knocked out in June by Matthews and November by Salikhov. Fialho fought four times in 2021 (before he joined the UFC), winning all four by knockout, and then five times in the UFC in 2022, with four of those also ending in knockouts (2-2). He’s only fought once in 2023 to this point, which ended in a knockout loss. His last five and 9 of his last 10 fights have ended in knockouts, with him landing the first six of those but getting finished in the last three.
Now 16-7 as a pro, Fialho has 13 wins by KO/TKO, one submission (R1 2014 in his second pro fight), and two decision victories. Twelve of his 14 finishes occurred in round one, with the other two ending in the first half of round two. Fialho’s last six wins have all come by KO/TKO, with the last five ending in round one. The last time he won a decision was in 2018 and he’s lost the only two decisions he’s been to since. His other five career losses all ended in knockouts, and all against fighters who are now in the UFC. Prior to joining the UFC, he got knocked out by Chidi Njokuani in just 21 seconds in a 2016 Bellator fight, before suffering a late third round KO loss to Chris Curtis in the PFL in 2019. Since joining the UFC, he has two second round knockout losses and another in round three.
Overall, Fialho is a one-dimensional boxer, but at 29 years old he still theoretically has time to round out his skillset. He’s got good hands, but he can be a little heavy on his lead leg and has looked prone to getting that leg chewed up. He’s most dangerous in the opening five minutes and tends to fade down the stretch in longer fights. He has a background in boxing and trains out of Kill Cliff FC. He’s just a BJJ purple belt, and he’s not much of a submission threat with just one win by submission on his record. He doesn’t throw a ton of volume, averaging just 3.02 SSL/min, but absorbs significantly more at 5.59 SSA/min (2nd most on the slate). His forward pressure, heavy hands, dubious striking defense, and suspect chin typically result in his fights ending in knockouts, whether it’s for him or his opponent. He doesn’t wear damage very well and his chin appears gone despite not even being 30 yet. He’s looked progressively worse in each of his recent losses and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before he gets released. While he hasn’t even attempted a takedown in any of his six UFC fights, his opponents have gotten him down on 4 of their 10 attempts (60% defense). Only three of his six opponents even tried to take him down, with all of them landing at least one of their attempts.
Tim Means
28th UFC Fight (14-12, NC)Now 39 years old, Means has also lost three straight fights, getting submitted in two of those. However, he did win the first round in his last fight on all three score cards, outlanding Morono 32-18 in significant strikes in the round. However, as Means landed his second takedown in round two, Morono locked up a guillotine and quickly forced a tap. Prior to that, lost a split decision to Max Griffin after getting submitted by Kevin Holland in the second round. Griffin dropped Means in the first round but slowed down some after that and after the fight said he thought he broke his hand in that first round. Holland also had Mean badly hurt, but ultimately submitted him instead of knocking him out. It’s been over two years since Means won a fight, but he did get his hand raised in three straight decisions leading up to the loss to Holland. The last three decisions Means lost were all split, while four of his five early losses in the UFC came by submission.
Now 32-15-1 as a pro, Means has 19 wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and eight decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted seven times, and has six decision losses. Means’ last four submission losses all ended in round two, after the first three of his career all came in round one. The only person to knock Means out since 2004 was Niko Price, who did so in the first round of a 2019 match. Means hasn’t finished anybody since landing a 2019 R1 guillotine against Thiago Alves and the last time he knocked anybody out was in 2018, when he finished Ricky Rainey, who was knocked out in four of his six career losses and retired after the loss to Means.
Overall, Means is a longtime UFC veteran nearing the end of his career. He tends to wear on his opponents through a combination of striking, wrestling, and cage work, but won’t blow you away anywhere. He averages 4.93 SSL/min and 3.61 SSA/min. In his last six fights, he landed 10 of his 23 takedown attempts (43.5% accuracy), while over that same stretch his opponents got him down on 4 of their 17 attempts (76.5% defense). While Means has only been knocked out once in the last 19 years, he’s been hurt pretty badly in two of his last three fights and it’s possible his chin retires before he does. He’s also been very prone to getting submitted and tends to leave his neck out shooting for desperation takedowns once he’s hurt, with four of his last six submission losses coming by guillotine choke and another by Brabo choke.
Fight Prediction:
Means will have a 2” height advantage and 1” reach advantage, while Fialho is 10 years younger than the 39-year-old Means.
The UFC is determined to get one of these two a win, while the loser will walk away having lost four straight fights. While neither guy has been impressive lately, Means has at least been competitive, while Fialho seems to just be waiting to get knocked out lately. It’s an interesting stylistic matchup because Fialho has been prone to getting knocked out, but it’s been five years since Means knocked anybody out, while Means has been prone to getting submitted, but Fialho’s only career submission was nine years ago. So neither fighter appears very well equipped to capitalize on the glaring weakness of the other, but Means is the busier striker, who will mix in wrestling, and has better cardio, so he should have the advantage if this manages to hit the scorecards. However, Fialho has only been to one decision in his last 10 fights, so it’s hard to feel overly confident that this one makes it the full 15 minutes. Fialho has been incredibly prone to getting knocked out in the later rounds, although he’s never been submitted. Considering both guys have lost three straight, it wouldn’t be surprising if they each came in a little more tentative, especially at the Apex with no live crowd egging them on. That raises the chances of a longer fight and we’re leaning towards Mean winning a decision, but Fialho is damaged goods and a late round finish for Means wouldn’t be shocking either. Either way, we’re going with the old dog to pull off one last upset before he decides to hang it up.
Our favorite bet here is “Means’ ML” at +150.
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DFS Implications:
Fialho is a R1 KO or bust play with both of his UFC wins ending in first round knockouts that scored 107 and 113 DraftKings points. He’s 0-4 in UFC fights that made it past the first round and got knocked out in the later rounds in each of his last three losses. He’s about as durable as a wet paper bag and has pretty suspect cardio. His early success in the UFC resulted in him being popular in DFS for a while, but we finally saw his ownership fall off in his last fight. It will be interesting to see what the field does with him here as we get a slate lacking many appealing expensive options. Fialho’s low striking volume and lack of takedowns will make it tough for him to score well even if he does land a rare late finish and he has no chance of scoring well in a decision. Means has only been knocked out once since 2004, but is 39 years old and got hurt in the first round in two of his last three fights. That at least gives some reason for optimism with Fialho, but this guy looks pretty shot if you ask us. The odds imply Fialho has a 59% chance to win, a 46% chance to land a finish, and a 25% chance it comes in round one.
Means has averaged 92 DraftKings points in his 14 UFC wins and has shown the ability to score decently even in decisions through a combination of striking and wrestling, with three of his last five decisions scoring 90 or more points. However, we’ve also seen him score just 58 points in two of his seven decision wins, so he’s shown a wide range of outcomes. He hasn't finished anybody since 2019 and hasn’t knocked anybody out since 2018, and is now 39-years old and on a three fight skid. None of that is encouraging, but Fialho has looked so bad recently that it does look like a good matchup for Means. And on a smaller slate with a cheap salary, Means will have a good shot at cracking winning tournament lineups even if he doesn’t put up a huge score in a win. There’s always the risk for Means to get knocked out early, but if he can avoid that then we like his chances of winning this fight down the stretch. The odds imply Means has a 41% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #6
Dan Argueta
4th UFC Fight (1-1, NC)Argueta is coming off an unfortunate premature stoppage by the ref that resulted in a No Contest in a fight that Argueta was seconds away from winning in a first round submission against Ronnie Lawrence, who has since stepped away from fighting following that result. Prior to that, Argueta notched his first UFC win in a wrestling-heavy decision against a short notice UFC newcomer in Nick Aguirre. Following that win, Argueta dropped back down to 135 lb for the first time in the UFC, after competing at 145 lb in each of his previous two fights. Argueta landed four of his six takedown attempts against Aguirre and finished with two official submission attempts. Leading up to that win, Argueta lost a wrestling-heavy decision in his own short notice UFC debut against Damon Jackson, who took Argueta down twice and controlled him for ten and half minutes. A month after that loss, Argueta had shoulder surgery to correct an injury that he said had been plaguing him for his last five fights. Argueta originally tried to crack the UFC roster through The Ultimate Fighter, but ultimately lost a decision to Ricky Turcios, who went on to win the show. Argueta then returned to the LFA and rattled off three straight victories with a pair of finishes followed by a five-round split decision to secure the vacant LFA Bantamweight belt just a month before he made his UFC debut.
Now 9-1 as a pro, Argueta has two wins by TKO, four submissions, and three decision victories. Five of his six early wins occurred in the first round, with the other ending in a third round TKO. However, five of his six finishes occurred in his first six pro fights and his last three fights leading up to his recent No Contest went the distance (2-1), not even counting his decision loss on TUF, which goes down as an exhibition match. However, he was moments away from locking up a submission in the first round of his last fight before the ref prematurely stopped the fight and forced a No Contest. Argueta’s only official pro loss went the distance and he’s never been finished. Argueta turned pro in 2019 at 145 lb and then fought three straight fights at 150 lb Catchweight followed by another one at 145 lb. He then dropped down to 135 lb when he went on TUF, where he stayed until his short notice UFC debut back up at 145 lb. He stayed at 145 lb for his second UFC fight as well, before dropping back down to 135 lb for his last match, where he’ll stay for this next one.
Overall, Argueta relies heavily on his college wrestling background and shoots for a high number of takedowns. In his three UFC fights, he landed 6 of his 10 takedown attempts (60% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 2 of their 4 attempts (50% defense). He has solid top pressure and ground and pound, but doesn’t offer a ton off his back other than looking for guillotines. He’s not an especially dangerous striker and while two-thirds of his wins have come early, it’s on the mat where he gets his finishes. He’s looked very hittable in the past and needs to improve his striking defense if he wants his chin to hold up long term, but he has proven himself to be durable up until this point. His fights typically play out as back and forth wrestling matches with Argueta wearing on his opponents as they go on and simply outlasting the opposition.
Miles Johns
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Johns had been scheduled to face Raoni Barcelos back in June but ended up pulling out during fight week due to an injury. Prior to that, Johns won a boring low-volume decision over Vince Morales. Johns continues to find success against lower level opponents but has been finished by both of the tougher fighters he’s faced in the UFC. After only attempting 10 takedowns in his first five UFC fights combined, Johns shot for 12 in that last match, although only completed one of them. Johns had been training at Fortis in Texas but switched to Glory MMA for that fight to be closer to home, just before Glory shut down. He was then forced to switch gyms once again and is now training with Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. Leading up to his recent win, Johns got submitted in the third round by John Castaneda, after landing a pair of third round knockouts against Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad. Just before those two finishes, Johns was knocked out in the second round by Mario Bautista, after winning a split decision in his UFC debut against Cole Smith.
Now 13-2 as a pro, Johns has four wins by KO/TKO, two submissions, and seven decision victories. Both of his losses ended early, with a second round flying knee KO against Mario Bautista and a third round submission against John Castaneda. Johns is 7-0 in fights that have gone the distance including a 5-round split decision win over Adrian Yanez for the LFA belt back in 2018. All 15 of his career fights have made it to the second round, with 11 seeing round three, and seven going the distance.
Overall, Johns has a wrestling background and actually turned down a wrestling scholarship to focus on MMA. Despite his wrestling experience, he’s struggled with his takedown accuracy and only landed one takedown in his last five fights combined. And between his six UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he’s landed just 5 of his 26 takedown attempts (19.2% accuracy), while his opponents have only landed one of their 14 attempts against him (92.9% defense). However, we haven’t seen any high-level wrestlers really test his defense very much, and Johns also has cardio concerns that could result in his takedown defense failing him in the later rounds. Johns generally doesn’t put up big striking totals, averaging just 3.63 SSL/min and 2.85 SSA/min. He’s never landed more than 80 significant strikes in a UFC fight or absorbed more than 58. It will be interesting to see if his approach changes here as he’s at a new gym for the second straight fight and has lacked consistency in his training camps lately.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Argueta will have a 2” reach advantage.
It’s no secret that Argueta comes into fights looking to wrestle, so Johns’ 92% takedown defense should be put to the test. Both of these two have wrestling backgrounds, but Johns has largely been content with keeping fights standing and looking for finishes on the feet. However, Johns did look for more takedowns in his last fight, he just wasn’t very effective with landing his attempts. Johns is the superior striker in this match and Argueta has looked pretty hittable, so if Johns can keep the fight standing he’ll be in a good position to pull off the upset, most likely in a decision. However, his cardio remains a concern and if Argueta is pushing a high wrestling pace, regardless of how successful he is at actually landing takedowns, we could see Johns gas out in the back half of the fight, at which point Argueta would be looking at a teed up finish. While this is an interesting matchup that could go a few different ways, we’ll give Johns the benefit of the doubt with his cardio and say he adds to his perfect 7-0 record with the judges and wins another decision here.
Our favorite bet here is “Johns DEC” at +310.
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DFS Implications:
Argueta got robbed of a first round submission win in his last match when the ref prematurely stopped the fight after Argueta locked up a guillotine choke. Ronnie Lawrence was about to tap when that happened so it was a rough break for Argueta, who would have scored 107 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel had the original stoppage held. Prior to that, Argueta scored 101 DraftKings points in a wrestling-heavy decision win over a short notice replacement who was making his UFC debut on just a few days’ notice. While that was obviously a favorable spot for Argueta to be in, he’s still shown the ability to score well with his wrestling even when he can’t find a finish. Now he’ll take on a fellow wrestler in Miles Johns, who comes in with a really solid 92% takedown defense. However, Johns also has cardio concerns that could weaken that defense late in the fight and also increase the chances of Argueta landing a late finish. While there’s no guarantee that Johns will gas out, the potential of it happening is encouraging for Argueta’s upside. However, if it doesn’t happen, then Johns could also shut down the wrestling of Argueta and easily win a striking battle. So this is a volatile matchup that largely relies on how Johns’ cardio holds up, which is a tough thing to confidently predict going in. The odds imply Argueta has a 61% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Johns is coming off a painfully slow paced decision win where he finished behind 38-39 in significant strikes and only landed one of his 12 takedown attempts, while scoring just 55 DraftKings points. To his credit, he did step into that fight on short notice and had just switched gyms, in addition to having James Krause being pulled from his corner the night before the fight. Nevertheless, the results were not encouraging for his DFS outlook moving forward. Johns’ one other UFC decision win was only good for 64 DraftKings points, while he landed a pair of third round knockouts that only scored 87 and 81 points. Overall, his lack of output has prevented him from putting up big scores in fights that reach the third round as he only averages 3.63 SSL/min and has a putrid 19% takedown accuracy. Now he’ll face a fellow wrestler who will be looking to test the 92% takedown defense of Johns. That has the potential to further slow the fight down, although Argueta has looked pretty hitable out in space. At Johns’ cheaper salary, he may not need to put up a huge score to be useful, but there are definitely ways he wins and still gets left out of the optimal lineup if multiple other underdogs win. It’s best to treat Johns as a low upside value option with a decent shot at pulling off the upset. The odds imply Johns has a 39% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and an 8% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #5
Charles Jourdain
12th UFC Fight (5-5-1)Jourdain recently snapped a two-fight losing streak in a win over Kron Gracie, who hadn’t competed in almost four years. Generally known for his reckless brawling style, Jourdain actually came in with a smart game plan for that fight, focussed around not getting taken down by the dangerous grappler in Gracie. And when Gracie pulled guard, Jourdain showed the ability to remain out of danger in top position. That allowed him to cruise to a unanimous 30-27 decision victory, as he outlanded Gracie 80-32 in significant strikes. Jourdain’s last three fights all went the distance, after three of his previous four ended early. It’s been two and a half years since he knocked anybody out, although he did submit Lando Vannata in April 2022.
Now 14-6-1 as a pro, Jourdain has eight wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. Only four of his 12 career finishes occurred in the first round and he’s generally a guy that puts people away later on in fights. He has four second round finishes, three in round three, and one in round five. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted once and is just 2-5-1 in eight career decisions. Ten of his 11 UFC fights have seen the second round, nine made it to round three, and seven ended with the judges, with three of those decisions being split.
Overall, Jourdain is a really solid kickboxer and has been extremely durable, but his defensive wrestling has been his Achilles heel, despite being a BJJ black belt. He’s 0-5 in UFC fights where he’s been taken down more than once, but 5-0-1 when he allows one or fewer takedowns. In his 11 UFC fights, he’s only landed one of his six takedown attempts (16.7% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 21 of their 41 attempts (48.8% defense). While Kron Gracie was credited with a takedown attempt in Jourdain’s last fight, he did successfully pull guard at multiple points, and Jourdain’s previous six opponents all got him down at least once. However, when he can keep fights standing, he puts on an absolute show as he averages 5.78 SSL/min and 4.30 SSA/min, landing 80 or more significant strikes in his last six fights to make it out of the first round, and 106 or more in three of those.
Ricardo Ramos
11th UFC Fight (7-3)Ramos had been scheduled to fight Austin Lingo back in March, but missed weight by 8 lb and the fight was canceled. He claims he was dealing with an injury going into that fight and the medicine he was on made his weight go up. That was Ramos’ second straight fight to get canceled and he hasn’t competed in 15 months now, after knocking out Danny Chavez with a spinning elbow early in the first round. That was notably the first time Chavez had ever been knocked out. While Ramos is just 4-3 in his last seven fights, those losses came against tough opponents in Zubaira Tukhugov, Lerone Murphy, and Said Nurmagomedov. Ramos’s last eight fights have all either ended in the first round (2-2) or gone the distance (3-1).
Now 16-4 as a pro, Ramos has four wins by KO/TKO, seven submissions, and five decision victories. He’s been knocked out twice, submitted once, and has one decision loss. His fights generally either end in round one or go the distance, with 8 of his 11 career finishes and all three of his early losses ending in the first round. He fought his first five UFC fights at 135 lb (4-1), before moving up to 145 lb in 2019, where he’s since gone 3-2.
Overall, Ramos is a flashy striker and a dangerous grappler, but tends to slow down later on in fights. He’s a counter striker who loves to throw spinning elbows against aggressive opponents and he’s a BJJ black belt who will sporadically shoot for takedowns in bunches given the right matchup. In his 10 UFC fights, he landed 17 of his 29 takedown attempts (58.6% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 6 of their 22 attempts (72.7% defense). He’s never landed more than 68 significant strikes in a fight and averages just 3.32 SSL/min, but his combination of striking and grappling has allowed him to win five of the six decisions he’s been to. Ramos often goes out to Team Alpha Male for his training camps, but stayed in his native Brazil for this one. He says he’s hoping for a submission win, but also wants to strike with Jourdain and wouldn’t mind another spinning back elbow KO. After missing weight by 8 lb for his last scheduled fight, obviously Ramos is a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’9” but Ramos will have a 3” reach advantage.
This sets up as an exciting scrap between two flashy strikers, with the wildcard being how much Ramos looks to wrestle. He failed to land a takedown in 5 of his 10 UFC fights, but landed 17 takedowns on 26 attempts in his other five matches, with two or more landed in four of those. So when he’s looked to wrestle, he’s generally found a good amount of success, he’s just not always looking to wrestle. You have to imagine this is a matchup where he’ll come in with a wrestling-heavy game plan based on Jourdain’s poor defensive wrestling, and Ramos alluded to as much when he said he’d like to finish this fight with a submission. However, he also said he’d be willing to strike with Jourdain and Ramos’ takedown attempts have been sporadic enough that it’s hard to fully trust him to wrestle even in a good matchup. While Jourdain has struggled with being taken down, he is a BJJ black belt and has only been submitted once in his career and Ramos only has one submission win since 2016, which was in 2019 against a terrible Luiz Eduardo Garagorri, who went 1-2 in the UFC with two submission losses. It’s certainly possible that Ramos takes his back early on and gets under his neck to force a tap, but we’d still be surprised to see it happen. Ramos’ tendency to slow down later in fights would seemingly increase the chances for Jourdain to find a finish late in the fight, although all three of Ramos early losses ended in round one. It’s been six years since Ramos finished anybody beyond the first round, and we’re accustomed to seeing his fights either end in round one or go the distance, whereas Jourdain is more of a late round finisher. That creates the potential for this fight to go a lot of ways, but here’s how we see it playing out:
Ramos relies on his wrestling to win the first round, but becomes less and less effective with his takedown attempts as he begins to tire in the back half of the match. That results in the second round being close, and Jourdain winning the third round, but narrowly unable to put Ramos away as time expires. The fight ends in a close split decision, with all the late momentum going in Jourdain's favor, but two of the three judges scoring the fight for Ramos based on his early wrestling success.
Our favorite bet here is “Ramos DEC” at +330.
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DFS Implications:
Jourdain has averaged 102 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, but hasn’t topped 93 points in any of his last six fights, after scoring 118 and 117 DraftKings points in a pair of late round knockouts in his first two UFC victories. Two of his last three wins went the distance, returning DraftKings scores of 93 and 92 points, with his other most recent victory ending in a first round submission that was also good for 92 points. So he’s nothing if not consistent, but hasn’t been able to put it all together lately. He showed a more disciplined approach in his last match, as he strategically defeated a high-level grappler in Kron Gracie. That’s both encouraging for his ability to win fights moving forward, but also discouraging for his DFS upside if he’s going to start fighting smarter, opposed to just looking to throw down in wild brawls. In fairness to him, his two choices in that match were to fight smart or get submitted, so brawling wasn’t even on the table. Now he’ll face a more dynamic opponent in Ricardo Ramos, who is a capable finisher both on the feet and the mat. Ramos is a dangerous counter striker who loves to throw spinning back elbows and will also implement grappling-heavy gameplans given the right matchup, which this clearly is. So Jourdain may have his hands full trying to avoid eating an elbow or getting taken down. While that may seem daunting, Ramos has also been finished in the first round in three of his four career losses and tends to slow down later in fights. That leaves this as a more volatile matchup where Jourdain could land a finish, get finished himself, or get dominated on the mat. All of those outcomes should result in the winner scoring pretty well and at their reasonable price tags the winner will have a good shot at cracking the optimal lineup. The odds imply Jourdain has a 57% chance to win, a 28% chance to land a finish, and a 15% chance it comes in round one.
Ramos averaged just 70 DraftKings points in his first four UFC wins, failing to even top 68 points in three of those. However, all four of those matches notably took place at 135 lb and since moving up to 145 lb in 2019 he’s averaged 102 DraftKings points in his last three victories. Two of those wins ended in first round finishes, which returned scores of 102 and 106 points respectively, and the other came in a wrestling-heavy decision, where Ramos landed eight takedowns and scored 98 DraftKings points. Now he’s facing an opponent in Jourdain who has consistently struggled to defend takedowns and this looks like a good spot for Ramos to rely on his grappling once again. Because of that, we prefer him on DraftKings opposed to FanDuel, but he’s a fine play on sites and he has the potential to fill up the stat sheet against an uptempo opponent like Jourdain. The main concern with Ramos is his cardio and we’ve seen him slow down late in fights. That makes it tougher to fully trust him and Jourdain has a history of landing late round finishes. Jourdain is also extremely durable and won’t be easy to put away, leaving Ramos more reliant on having the gas tank to make it 15 minutes. That just adds to the volatility in this matchup, but the upside is clearly there for Ramos and at his cheaper price tag he doesn’t need to put up a slate-breaking score to end up in winning lineups. The odds imply Ramos has a 43% chance to win, a 24% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #4
Bryan Battle
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Battle recently landed a 14 second round one knockout win in front of his home Charlotte against Gabe Green, who came into the fight like Battle just ran over his dog. Green charged forward with reckless abandonment right out of the gate and was immediately made to pay for it as Battle caught him with a right hand to the chin to put him out. Prior to that quick win, Battle suffered his first UFC loss when he got smothered on the mat for three rounds by Rinat Fakhretdinov. Battle landed just three significant strikes in the fight, as he got taken down seven times and controlled for over 14 minutes. Just before that loss, Battle landed a 44 second first round knockout against Takashi Sato after dropping down from 185 lb to 170 lb for the first time in his career. Battle’s first two UFC wins both came against opponents from The Ultimate Fighter, in Gilbert Urbina, who was filling in for Tresean Gore on short notice, and then Tresean Gore after he recovered from a knee injury.
Now 9-2 as a pro, Battle has three wins by KO/TKO, four submissions, and two decision victories. Three of his four submission wins came in round two, not even counting his R2 submission victory against Andre Petroski on TUF that technically counts as an exhibition match and doesn’t show up on his pro record. Battle has also been submitted once himself and has one decision loss. His submission loss came via armbar in his second pro fight, and he’s gone 8-1 since then.
Overall, Battle is an uptempo fighter who throws a lot of kicks and knees out of the clinch, and has started looking more dangerous with his hands recently. In his five UFC fights, he’s landed 2 of his 10 takedown attempts (20% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 11 of their 18 attempts (38.9% defense). All three of the UFC opponents who tried to take him down landed at least two of their attempts. While his defensive wrestling hasn’t been great, he’s shown the ability to find finishes both on the feet and the mat and will look for a variety of chokes in the grappling exchanges. Battle lands a good amount of striking volume, although his career numbers (4.47 SSL/min) are dragged down by his decision loss to Fakhretdinov where he only landed three significant strikes in 15 minutes. In his other four UFC fights, Battle averaged 7.24 SSL/min. After missing weight for his last fight, Battle will be a guy to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
AJ Fletcher
4th UFC Fight (1-2)Coming off his first UFC win, Fletcher locked up a second round guillotine against a debuting Themba Gorimbo, who’s been finished in three of his four career losses. Gorimbo was able to take Fletcher down twice and control him for two minutes, but also got reversed on the mat and controlled for three and a half minutes in the match, before falling into a guillotine. Prior to that, Fletcher lost a pair of decisions in his first two UFC fights against Matthew Semelsberger and Ange Loosa. Fletcher started strong in both of those matches, but slowed down the stretch and ended up getting controlled on his back for periods of time, nearly getting finished by Loosa. Fletcher nearly finished Loosa in the second round, but punched himself out going for the finish and completely gassed out at elevation in Salt Lake City. Before he joined the UFC, Fletcher had finished five straight opponents in the first round, including a R1 flying knee knockout on DWCS in August 2021 to punch his ticket to the big show. One thing to keep in mind is that Fletcher’s last two early wins before going on DWCS both came against opponents with losing records, so it’s fair to question the level of competition that he had been facing.
Now 10-2 as a pro, Fletcher has four wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and one decision victory. Six of those early wins occurred in round one, one ended in round two, and the other two were stopped in round three. His lone decision win occurred in his second pro fight back in 2019 and his last eight victories all came early, with five of his last six wins ending in round submissions. He’s never been finished, with both of his losses going the distance. While Fletcher has spent almost his entire career at 170 lb, he did have one fight down at 155 lb in 2019. He hadn’t faced much in terms of competition prior to joining the UFC and only four of his 10 career wins were against opponents with winning records.
Overall, Fletcher is an explosive fighter but fades late in fights. He’s a stocky former football player, who is short for the 170 lb division at just 5’10”. While he’s constantly looking for takedowns, we’ve seen him struggle to control opponents on the mat at times. Nevertheless, he offers a well rounded attack of both striking and grappling. He loves looking for guillotines and various forms of choke, but he can be sloppy with his technique at times. At just 26 years old, he’s still a pretty raw fighter who only turned pro in 2019, so we should be seeing improvements from him between every fight. Between his three UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed 5 of his 12 takedown attempts (41.7% accuracy), but failed to land a takedown in either of his last two fights. On the other side of things, his opponents have gotten him down on 5 of their 7 attempts (28.6% defense), with all three of his UFC opponents getting him down at least once. Fletcher has been training at altitude in Colorado at Factory X for the last few months, so it will be interesting to see if that helps his cardio.
Fight Prediction:
Battle will have a 3” height advantage and 10” reach advantage.
This is an interesting matchup because Battle has struggled with his defensive wrestling and Fletcher has decent wrestling, at least early on in fights. We could see this play out similarly to Fletcher’s UFC debut against Matthew Semelsberger, who is the same height as Battle (6’1”) and has almost as long of a reach (75” vs. 77”). Fletcher found early wrestling success in that match, but couldn’t sustain that in the later rounds and ultimately lost a decision. However, Semelsberger isn’t any sort of submission threat, while Battle has a history of locking up chokes, making him more of a threat to find a finish. Battle has a tendency of locking up second round chokes after his opponents begin to fade and Fletcher has a history of fading in fights, so we could definitely see that happening here. However, if training at elevation has improved Fletcher’s cardio then it’s possible he could grind out a decision on the mat. Ultimately, both guys are capable of landing a knockout, submission, or winning a decision, making this a tricky spot to predict, but neither guy has ever been knocked out, increasing the chances that this either goes the distance or ends in a submission. Both guys like to look for chokes and are capable of submitting the other, but with Fletcher’s job likely on the line we wouldn’t be surprised if he played it a little safer here and focussed on position over submission. Training at elevation is also somewhat encouraging for his cardio, although there’s still no guarantee it will last for 15 minutes. When you combine all that with how Battle has struggled in terms of defensive wrestling, we’re willing to take a shot on Fletcher by decision here at juicy odds.
Our favorite bet here is “AJ Fletcher DEC” at +550.
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DFS Implications:
Battle has put up slate-breaking DraftKings scores of 126 and 128 in his last two wins, with the help of the Quick Win Bonus. He also scored 87 points in his lone decision victory and 97 points in a second round submission in his UFC debut. Overall, he’s averaging 110 points in his four wins and has shown both a solid floor and ceiling. His one weakness has been his defensive wrestling and all three of the UFC opponents who tried to take him down landed multiple of their attempts. That’s somewhat concerning here, as Fletcher is a decent wrestler and will likely be looking to lean on that given Battle’s 10” reach advantage. That has the potential to lower Battle’s ability to put up a big striking total if he spends time being controlled, but could also allow him to lock up a submission if Fletcher leaves his neck out shooting for a takedown. Neither of those scenarios are ideal for hitting a ceiling performance, but Fletcher tends to slow down later in fights, which increases Battle’s chances of dominating him down the stretch the way Ange Loosa did, and potentially finding a late finish. So despite the concerns that Battle could get controlled at times in this fight, he still has a ton of scoring potential in this matchup. The odds imply Battle has a 63% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and an 18% chance it comes in round one.
Fletcher is coming off his first UFC win, but is just 1-2 with the organization and could be fighting for his job. He locked up a second round submission in his recent victory, but still only scored 87 DraftKings points in the win, as he landed no knockdowns or takedowns in the fight. He nearly landed another second round finish just before that, but gassed out going for it and ultimately lost a decision. Nine of his 10 career wins have come early, showing clear scoring potential, especially at his cheap price tag. However, Battle has only been finished once in his career, which was in his second pro fight. Fletcher will be at a significant size disadvantage, so it would make sense for him to lean on his wrestling, and Battle has been taken down two or more times by anyone that’s tried to wrestle him. While that’s encouraging for Fletcher’s DraftKings scoring potential, we have concerns with his cardio and we’ve seen Fletcher slow down late in fights in the past. That lowers the chances of him finding 15 straight minutes of wrestling success, but it’s always possible he’s improved his cardio. His wrestling at least gives him multiple potential ways to score well, and at his cheap price tag a win of any kind may be enough for him to end up in tournament winning lineups. The odds imply Fletcher has a 37% chance to win, a 26% chance to land a finish, and a 13% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #3
Marina Rodriguez
12th UFC Fight (6-3-2)Looking to bounce back from two straight losses, Rodriguez recently lost a decision to Virna Jandiroba, who was able to take Rodriguez down three times and control her for 12 minutes. Prior to that, Rodriguez suffered the first early loss of her career, as she got knocked out by Amanda Lemos early in the third round of a November main event. Leading up to her recent pair of losses, Rodriguez won four straight fights, with the last three of those going the distance. However, her last decision win was split and probably should have gone the other way, as it looked like Yan Xiaonan had done enough to beat her. Rodriguez curiously fought to two majority draws in her first four UFC fights, with both of those coming against grapplers. Her other two fights over that four fight stretch both ended in decision wins, before she lost a split decision to Carla Esparza in 2020, and then rattled off four straight wins leading up to her recent loss. Nine of her 11 UFC fights went the distance, with four of those decisions being split/majority (1-1-2). Her only early win in the UFC was a second round TKO over Amanda Ribas, while her only early loss was a R3 TKO against Amanda Lemos.
Now 16-3-2 as a pro, Rodriguez has six wins by TKO, one submission, and nine decision victories. While she does have seven finishes on her record, five of those came in her first six fights against less experienced opponents and she only has one early win since 2018. She has one TKO loss and two decision defeats, but has been involved in a lot of close decisions.
Overall, Rodriguez is a very solid Muay Thai striker, but she doesn’t offer anything in terms of offensive grappling and she’s only landed one takedown on five attempts in 11 UFC fights and hasn’t even attempted any in her last eight matches. She also landed her only takedown attempt on DWCS Brazil, which factors into her 33.3% career takedown accuracy. On the flipside, she’s been taken down 19 times on 53 attempts by her opponents (64.2% defense), with all 11 of her UFC opponents attempting at least one takedown against her, and nine of them finding success. She’s been taken down at least once in eight straight fights. She averages 4.58 SSL/min and 2.94 SSA/min, but she generally doesn’t put up huge striking totals. Instead, she relies more on calculated power to pick her opponents apart and uses her length well to control the distance.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
14th UFC Fight (6-7)Coming off three straight losses, Waterson-Gomez is just 1-5 in her last six fights, with that lone win coming in a 2020 five-round split decision over Angela Hill, in a fight that Waterson-Gomez arguably lost. Her second most recent win was four and a half years ago and the last time she finished anybody was in 2016. In fairness to Waterson-Gomez, her most recent loss was a close split-decision loss to Luana Pinheiro and she’s been on both sides of close split decisions. Prior to that, she got submitted in the second round by Amanda Lemos, after losing a five-round decision to Marina Rodriguez the first time these two fought. Waterson-Gomez made her UFC debut in 2015 and landed a pair of submissions in her first two fights against low-level opponents, before getting submitted by Rose Namajunas in her third fight. Since then, 9 of her 10 fights have gone the distance (4-5), with four of those being split (2-2).
Now 18-11 as a pro, Waterson-Gomez has three wins by KO/TKO, nine submissions, and six decision victories. She’s been knocked out once (2009), submitted four times, and has six decision losses. Three of her four submission losses came by guillotine, while she also has a rear-naked choke defeat. Her last four early losses all came in the later rounds, with three in round two and one in round three. Waterson-Gomez is a former Invicta Atomweight champion. She started her career fighting at Strawweight and Flyweight, but dropped down to Atomweight in 2012, before moving back up to Strawweight when she joined the UFC in 2015.
Overall, Waterson-Gomez is a karate black belt and a BJJ brown belt and throws lots of kicks to try and keep her opponents at bay. While she attempts a decent number of takedowns (4.2 TDA/15 min), she’s never landed more than three in a fight, hasn’t landed more than one in a match since 2019. She’s landed just five takedowns on 36 attempts in her last six fights. Her official UFC stats include two of her fights from Invicta and Strikeforce, but if we remove those and just look at her 13 UFC fights, she’s landed 17 of her 56 takedown attempts (30.4% accuracy), while her opponents have taken her down on 8 of 30 attempts (73.3% defense). While Waterson-Gomez is a decently well-rounded fighter, she’s not overly impressive anywhere, and her limitations are evident every time she faces a step up in competition. While she’s competed against several tough opponents in her career, she’s basically lost every one of those fights and has only notched wins against lower and mid level competition. Looking back at her UFC losses, they’ve come against Rose Namajunas, Tecia Torres, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, Amanda Lemos, and Luana Pinheiro. Despite being 37 years old and going just 1-5 in her last five fights. Waterson-Gomez said she just signed a new contract before her last fight and claimed it was an eight fight deal, which was surprising to hear.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 3” height and reach advantage and is a year younger than the 37-year-old Waterson-Gomez.
This will be a rematch of a 2021 five-round fight that Rodriguez won in a unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47). That fight was put together on short notice and took place up at 125 lb, but they’ve both been at Strawweight for the rest of their UFC careers. Rodriguez outlanded Waterson-Gomez 125-88 in significant strikes and 144-100 in total strikes, while Waterson-Gomez only landed one of her five takedown attempts. While rematches typically go a little differently than the first fight, this is a case where we actually do see it playing out similarly. We don’t see a lot of variety in either of these two fighters’ game plans and they’re also about the same age. Waterson-Gomez is still the better grappler, but far from exceptional in that area, while Rodriguez is still the better striker. We expect Rodriguez to use her size advantage to effectively outland Waterson-Gomez and win another decision here. While Waterson-Gomez will likely look to mix in some grappling, it’s rare to see her land more than a single takedown in a fight and it’s been four and a half years since her last multi-takedown performance. Maybe she can do enough to keep this somewhat close, but Rodriguez by decision is the pick.
Our favorite bet here is “Rodriguez DEC” at -155.
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DFS Implications:
Rodriguez is a dangerous Muay Thai striker but doesn’t offer anything in terms of offensive grappling and has only landed one takedown in 11 UFC fights and none in her last eight. That leaves her reliant on landing finishes to score well, something she’s only done once in 11 UFC appearances. Waterson-Gomez is very durable and has only been knocked out once in her career, which occurred 13 years ago. Rodriguez only scored 85 DraftKings points over five-rounds the first time these two fought, so it’s hard to see her returning value at her expensive price tag in a three-round fight unless she lands a well-timed finish. And in her one early UFC win, she only scored 88 DraftKings points, showing that even if she does get a finish, there’s no guarantee it will score especially well. The only thing she really has going for her is her low ownership, which is important on this smaller slate. The odds imply Rodriguez has a 72% chance to win, a 20% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Waterson-Gomez has gone the distance in 9 of her last 10 fights and hasn’t finished anybody since 2016. She averaged just 78 DraftKings points in her three UFC three-round decision wins, failing to top 83 points in any of those. She’s also lost her last three and five of her last six fights, so not only does she rarely score well when she wins, she almost never wins. That makes it tough to get excited about playing her and we’ve already seen this matchup play out once, and Waterson-Gomez was easily defeated by Rodriguez. Unless Waterson-Gomez lands a hail mary submission, her only hope of being useful will be as a value play in a close decision win. She will also be low-owned, which adds to her appeal some, but we’re still pretty low on her and we expect her to lose a decision. The odds imply Waterson-Gomez has a 28% chance to win, a 9% chance to land a finish, and a 4% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #2
Bryce Mitchell
8th UFC Fight (6-1)Mitchell had been scheduled to fight Movsar Evloev in May, but ended up dropping out less than a week before the fight. Prior to that, he suffered his first UFC defeat in a second round submission against an incredibly dangerous Ilia Topuria. Mitchell was able to land one of his nine takedown attempts, but ultimately was no match for Topuria, who had him outclassed both on the feet and the mat. Mitchell claimed he came into that fight sick, which couldn’t have helped things, but healthy or not it was a terrible matchup for him. Leading up to that loss, Mitchell won his first six UFC fights, with five of those wins going the distance. The most recent of those decisions came against Edson Barboza, after Mitchell defeated another longtime UFC veteran in Andre Fili just before that. Mitchell’s only finish in the UFC came in a 2019 first round twister submission against a helpless Matt Sayles. Mitchell made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in 2018. Despite getting submitted by Brad Katona in his second fight on the show, in a fight that technically goes down as an exhibition match and doesn’t count towards Mitchell’s pro record, the UFC still gave Mitchell a shot later that year and he never looked back.
Now 15-1 as a pro, Mitchell has nine submission victories and six decision wins. Eight of his nine submissions ended in the first round, with the other ending in round two. After starting his career with eight straight submissions, six of his last seven wins went the distance. His only official pro loss was the recent second round submission against Ilia Topuria, although Mitchell was also submitted on TUF, in what counts as an exhibition match.
Overall, Mitchell is a BJJ black belt and a relentless wrestler who grinds opponents out on the mat while occasionally looking to lock up submissions, often going for the rare twister. In his seven UFC fights, Mitchell landed 19 takedowns on 43 attempts (44.2% accuracy), while getting taken down himself 8 times on 12 opponent attempts (33.3% defense). Mitchell has shown some minor improvements to his striking but is still pretty green on the feet. However, he’s still just 28 years old and has plenty of time to improve. But as of now, he pretty much just uses his striking to set up his wrestling. He’s only fought twice since October 2020, so inactivity has been an issue for him, but he’ll try to get back on track this Saturday as he looks to rebound from the first official loss of his career.
Dan Ige
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Fresh off a decision win over Nate Landwehr, Ige has won two in a row for the first time since 2020. Ige hurt Landwehr in the closing seconds of round one and then dropped him in the closing seconds of round two, but ran out of time before he could finish him. Prior to that win, Ige snapped a three fight losing streak with a second round knockout against Damon Jackon. Despite Jackson being a grappler and Ige getting dominated on the mat in two of his previous three fights, Jackson randomly only attempted a single failed takedown in the match and then unsurprisingly got knocked out in the second round, later revealing that he came into that fight with a torn pec. Leading up to the pair of wins, Ige got dominated on the mat by Movsar Evloev, who took Ige down nine times on 16 attempts with nearly seven minutes of control time. Just before that, Ige lost decisions to Josh Emmett and The Korean Zombie, after knocking out Gavin Tucker in just 22 seconds, following a five-round decision loss to Calvin Kattar. While Ige is just 3-4 in his last seven fights, all of those losses came against really tough opponents. After losing a decision to Julio Arce in his 2018 UFC debut, Ige rattled off six straight wins before losing to Kattar, with four of those wins going the distance and the other two ending in first round finishes. Eight of Ige’s last 10 fights made it to the judges (4-4), with the other two ending in knockout victories.
Now 17-6 as a pro, Ige has five wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and seven decision victories. All six of his losses went the distance and he’s never been finished. Six of Ige’s 10 early wins occurred in the first round and three of his four UFC finishes were stopped in the opening 77 seconds of fights, with two ending in under a minute. His only UFC finish to come in the later rounds was his second round knockout victory over Damon Jackson.
Overall, Ige is a durable fighter who’s shown the ability to recover from early adversity. He’s a powerful but patient striker, and only averages 3.96 SSL/min and 3.69 SSA/min. Despite being a BJJ black belt and Judo brown belt, as well as a former college wrestler, he’s struggled with both his takedown accuracy and defense. Between his 14 UFC fights and his DWCS appearance, he landed just 15 of his 56 takedown attempts (26.8% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on 21 of their 48 attempts (56.3% defense). Ige has only landed two takedowns on 18 attempts in his last seven fights, after landing at least one takedown in eight straight fights prior to that. He lost the last three fights where he got taken down even once. He’s coming off a career best 88 significant strikes landed against Landwehr, after failing to top 84 in his previous 14 matches. We’ve seen Ige struggle against wrestlers in the past, so this next matchup looks like a tough one for him.
Fight Prediction:
Mitchell will have a 3” height advantage, but Ige will have a 1” reach advantage. Mitchell is also four years younger than the 32-year-old Ige.
While this sets up as a striker versus grappler matchup, Ige is the more well rounded of the two and despite being known for his striking, he’s a BJJ black belt with a grappling background and some submission skills. However, his defensive wrestling has been pretty poor and that’s where we expect him to struggle against the relentless wrestling attack of Mitchell. While Ige’s one punch knockout power always gives him a chance in fights, Mitchell has never been knocked out and Ige will have limited opportunities to land a knockout before he finds himself on his back in each round. However, Ige’s defensive grappling has been better than his defensive wrestling, so we like Mitchell’s chances of winning a decision more than his chances of locking up a submission.
Our favorite bet here is “Mitchell DEC” at -105.
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DFS Implications:
Mitchell is coming off his first UFC loss, but absolutely dominated his previous four opponents on the mat. After scoring just 50 and 66 DraftKings points in his first two UFC fights, he averaged 108 over his last four victories, scoring a career best 124 points in his last victory before losing to a top contender in Ilia Topuria. Mitchell still doesn’t offer a ton in terms of striking and is reliant on putting on dominant wrestling performances to both win and score well. He accrued over 10 minutes of control time in each of his last three wins, while landing three or more takedowns in all of those fights. Now he’s facing an opponent in Dan Ige who’s struggled with his defensive wrestling and only has a 56% takedown defense. While that makes Mitchell a great play on DraftKings, his last win that scored 124 DraftKings points was only good for 76 points on FanDuel, and he needs either a finish or an absurd number of takedowns to score well over there. He’s only landed one finish in the UFC, which came against a terrible Matt Sayles and Ige is a BJJ black belt who has never been finished. So we’re treating Mitchell as a DraftKings specific play with tons of upside in a good bounce back spot. The odds imply Mitchell has a 64% chance to win, an 18% chance to land a finish, and a 9% chance it comes in round one.
Ige is a volatile DFS producer who has three UFC finishes in under 77 seconds, but has gone the distance in eight of his last 10 fights, losing four of the last five decisions he’s been to. He’s shown a massive ceiling with the help of the Quick Win Bonus, but only averaged 77 DraftKings points in his five UFC decision wins, failing to top 76 points in the last three of those. Now he’s facing a relentless wrestler who will be looking to take him down early and often, which will make it hard for Ige to land much striking volume. Ige appears reliant on landing a finish to pull off the upset and/or score well and while Mitchell is coming off a submission defeat, he’s never been knocked out. Ige is notably a BJJ black belt and has some submission skills, although only has one submission in the UFC, which came in 2019 against an aging low-level opponent. While Ige has a slim chance of finishing Mitchell, he most likely gets smothered on the mat for three rounds, making it hard to get excited about playing him. The odds imply Ige has a 36% chance to win, a 19% chance to land a finish, and a 10% chance it comes in round one.
Fight #1
Rafael Fiziev
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Fiziev recently had a six-fight winning streak snapped in a close majority-decision loss to Justin Gaethje. Fiziev narrowly outlanded Gaethje in each of the first two rounds, and all three judges scored those rounds differently, before Gaethje closed out the fight strong to squeak out the decision win. Prior to that loss, Fiziev landed a pair of late round knockouts against tough opponents in Brad Riddell and Rafael Dos Anjos, after three of Fiziev’s first four UFC wins went the distance. He made his UFC debut back in 2019, where he suffered his first career loss in an 86 second R1 spinning back kick TKO.
Now 12-2 as a pro, Fiziev has eight wins by KO/TKO, one submission, and three decision victories. His lone submission win came in a 2016 R1 rear-naked choke in his second pro fight and all of his other fights have ended in either knockouts or decisions. The only time he’s been finished was the R1 TKO in his 2019 UFC debut, while he’s coming off his first decision loss. Six of his nine early wins came in round one, while he also has one second round knockout, another in round three, and one in round five. While his first seven pro fights all ended in the first two rounds, six of his last seven matches made it to round three, with four of those going the distance.
This will be the 2nd five-round fight of Fiziev’s career. The first was against Rafael Dos Anjos in July 2022, where Fiziev won in an early fifth round knockout. Dos Anjos notably went just 2 for 16 on his takedown attempts, while Fiziev finished ahead just 64-54 in the low-volume tactical battle. Two of the three judges scored the first three rounds for Fiziev, but all three had the fourth round for Dos Anjos, which is notable since that’s the only time Fiziev has been to the championship rounds in his career. Dos Anjos failed to land any takedowns in the first two rounds, but landed one in round three and another in round four.
Overall, Fiziev is a violent striker and a coach at Tiger Muay Thai. While he doesn’t offer much in terms of offensive grappling, and hasn’t landed a takedown in any of his last five outings, he has an elite takedown defense. In his eight UFC fights, he’s landed two of his five takedown attempts (40% accuracy), while his opponents got him down on just 4 of their 41 attempts (90.2% defense). When he has been taken down, he’s done a good job of quickly returning to his feet. Cardio remains somewhat of a concern with Fiziev, and we’ve seen him slow down late in fights. He lost the third round in his last fight against Gaethje, he lost the fourth round against Dos Anjos just before that, he lost the third round against Bobby Green in 2021, and he lost the third round to Marc Diakiese in 2020.
Mateusz Gamrot
8th UFC Fight (5-2)Gamrot is coming off a split decision win over Jalin Turner, in a fight that Gamrot accepted on just over two weeks’ notice. Gamrot was able to land 4 of his 12 takedown attempts, with nearly seven minutes of control time, while Turner finished ahead 40-29 in significant strikes. Just before that, Gamrot lost a decision in an insane grappling battle against Beneil Dariush, where Gamrot was only able to land 4 of his 19 takedown attempts and finished with just 127 seconds of control time. Dariush also knocked Gamrot down in the third round, while out striking him in the later rounds. Prior to that loss, Gamrot won four straight fights, with the most recent of those wins coming in a five-round decision over Arman Tsarukyan. While Gamrot’s last three fights all went the distance, he finished three straight aging veterans leading up to the Tsarukyan matchup, after losing a controversial split decision in his 2020 UFC debut against Kutateladze.
Now 22-2 as a pro, Gamrot has seven wins by KO/TKO, five submissions, and 10 decision victories. All seven of Gamrots KO/TKO wins occurred in the later rounds, with five ending in round two and two in round three. However, three of his five submission wins occurred in the first round, with another ending in round two, and the final coming in the fourth round of a 2018 KSW Lightweight Championship fight. He’s never been finished, with both of his career losses going the distance. Gamrot has spent almost his entire career at 155 lb, but did drop down to 145 lb once in 2018 to secure his second KSW belt. He generally tends to wear on his opponents and 17 of his last 18 fights have made it out of the first round, with 12 of those seeing a third round, and nine going the distance.
This will be the 6th five-round fight of Gamrot’s career (5-0), but just his second in the UFC. His initial four five-round fights were all with the KSW organization. The first of those was in 2018 and ended in a fourth round submission win for the KSW Lightweight belt. He then dropped down to 145 lb for the first and only time in his career later in 2018 and claimed a second KSW belt in a five-round decision win. Next he returned to 155 lb in 2020 for another five rounder, and defeated his longtime nemesis with a third round TKO by doctor stoppage. He defended the Lightweight belt once more in a 2020 five-round decision in his last fight before joining the UFC. He then won a five-round decision in his lone UFC five-round fight. All five of his five-round fights made it to the third round, and all but one made it to the championship rounds, with three of his last four going the distance.
Overall, Gamrot is a relentless wrestler, a BJJ black belt, and a decent striker. He’s the former KSW Lightweight and Featherweight Champion who came into the UFC with a perfect 17-0 record and a ton of experience under his belt. In his seven UFC fights, he’s landed 26 of his 82 takedown attempts (31.7%), landing at least four in five of those seven matches and attempting 12 or more in all four of his UFC fights to make it beyond the second round. On the other side of things, he’s only been taken down by his opponents on one of their 11 attempts (90.9% defense). He’s not a guy who generally puts up big striking totals, as he averages just 3.03 SSL/min and 3.23 SSA/min, but he has talked about how he’s been working on his striking at American Top Team.
Fight Prediction:
Gamrot will have a 2” height advantage, but Fiziev will have a 1” reach advantage.
This is a very similar stylistic matchup to Fiziev’s previous UFC main event, where he defeated another grappler in Rafael Dos Anjos in a fifth round knockout. The biggest difference is that Gamrot is much younger than Dos Anjos and has also been much more durable. We expect this match to play out similarly to that fight in a lot of ways, as Gamrot will be looking to implement his wrestling, while Fiziev will be focussed on defending takedowns and landing strikes. While that may not make for the most exciting fight, it is a compelling tactical battle as we get one of the best wrestlers in the division taking on a guy with one of the best takedown defenses. This matchup has split decision written all over it, as we expect Fiziev’s takedown defense to hold up early on and for him to be landing the bigger strikes. However, Gamrot has way more experience in five-round fights and he should be able to outlast Fiziev and turn the tide in the later stages, winning the championship rounds and taking this to a close decision. Fiziev likely needs to win all of the first three rounds to come out victorious, while Gamrot just needs to steal one of those if he can also secure rounds four and five. We’ll say Fiziev wins rounds one and two, round three is close, and Gamrot wins round four and five as he squeaks out a split-decision win.
Our favorite bet here is “Fiziev/Gamrot FGTD” at +108.
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DFS Implications:
Fiziev has generally struggled to put up big DFS totals, scoring 72 or less DraftKings points in four of his six UFC wins, and only 87 points in a R5 knockout win over RDA. The only time he scored well was in his lone UFC first round finish, which was good for 109 points. His second most recent win ended in a third round knockout that was only good for 72 points on DraftKings. While he averages a decent amount of striking volume at 5.06 SSL/min, that’s more of a testament to his consistency than anything else, and has also been aided by the fact that he has such a good takedown defense (90%) that he’s avoided being controlled by opponents. He’s never landed more than 104 significant strikes in a fight and doesn’t add much in the way of offensive grappling, with zero takedowns landed in his last five fights. We’ve also seen him slow down a little later on in fights, and he lost the third round in all three of his most recent three-round decisions, in addition to losing the fourth round in his fight against RDA, before coming back to land the knockout. That leaves him reliant on landing a well-timed finish in the first two rounds to really score well, and now he’s facing a durable wrestler in Gamrot who’s never been finished. Gamrot’s wrestling-heavy approach will make it tougher for Fiziev to land a ton of volume and even an early second round finish may not be enough for Fiziev to be useful. The odds imply Fiziev has a 59% chance to win, a 34% chance to land a finish, and a 12% chance it comes in round one.
Gamrot has been a more useful piece in DFS, as he’s averaged 100 DraftKings points in his five UFC wins, scoring 97 or more in four of those. While he only scored 86 points in his recent three-round decision win, he did take that fight on pretty short notice against a really tough Jalin Turner. Now he’s facing another really tough test here as he squares off against the elite 90% takedown defense of Rafael Fiziev. That will make it difficult for Gamrot to put up a big takedown total, but we don’t expect it to deter him from trying. That should result in a decent amount of cage control time and clinch strikes that will help his scoring floor on DraftKings, but won’t benefit him on FanDuel. At his cheaper DraftKings salary, Gamrot will have a good shot at serving as a value play over there, but we’re less excited about his outlook on FanDuel, and this isn’t a good matchup for him to hit a ceiling performance on either site. The odds imply Gamrot has a 41% chance to win, a 16% chance to land a finish, and a 5% chance it comes in round one.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter @dfs_mma with your winnings so we can see how you did!
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