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UPDATE: SMOLKA FIGHT SCRATCHED 30 MINUTES BEFORE LOCK! NO TIME TO UPDATE OWNERSHIP!
Fighter Notes:
Don'Tale Mayes
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)After notching R1 & R2 KO victories in his two trips on DWCS, Mayes got his shot in the UFC, but has now been submitted in both of his first two UFC fights. The first loss came via R3 Heel Hook Submission and then he followed that up with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke loss in his most recent fight. Prior to fighting in the UFC he had won four fights in a row, with the last three all coming early. Mayes’ lone career KO loss came in a 2017 R3 KO, although he was also disqualified once for an illegal elbow in R1 of a 2016 match.
Looking overmatched in his debut, Mayes was saved by the bell after getting dropped at the end of R1 by Ciryl Gane. It was dangerously close to going down as a R1 KO loss. He was dominated throughout the fight and went on to lose regardless. Mayes also came close to getting finished in R1 of his last fight against Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira, but managed to survive until R2 when he was eventually finished.
Mayes will have a massive 8” height advantage, 9” reach advantage and 18 lb weight advantage in this fight. He towered over Martinez at faceoffs.
Roque Martinez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Two months removed from a rough R2 submission loss against Alexander Romanov, Martinez’s last three and seven of his last eight fights have ended early. In his 13 year career, 11 of his 15 wins came early as did four of his six losses.
Martinez has been a tough guy to finish on the regional scene, only getting KO’d once since 2011, and that came on a Doctor’s Stoppage. His only other career KO loss came in R4 of a 2011 fight. Martinez does have three submission wins to his name—a 2008 R3 Heel Hook, a 2015 R1 Kamura (against current UFC fighter Da Un Jung), and a 2017 R1 Scarf Hold. Interestingly, Martinez remains the only person who ‘s ever finished Da Un Jung early.
While the oddsmakers have this one heavily favored to end early, we wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the distance. We think this fight most likely takes place entirely on the feet, so Martinez is less likely to capitalize on Mayes’ suspect ground game. Mayes has been far from impressive in the UFC, but we also haven’t seen anything from Martinez inside of the octagon either—other than him getting pummeled, body slammed, and choked out.
This sets up as a sloppy Heavyweight bout with a wide range of outcomes. Mayes is clearly a R1 or bust play, while Martinez’s price theoretically gives him a little more leeway, but only if the dogs priced around him don’t go off. This feels like it sets up for disappointment, but the betting market seems to think Mayes gets it done early. In what feels like a crapshoot, we’re not planning on making a hard stand here one way or another, but we’ll say Mayes wins either by late KO or in a decision.
Tony Gravely
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Ten months removed from a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss in his UFC debut, Gravely had won his seven previous fights—including a R3 KO on DWCS in 2019 that got him a shot in the UFC. Gravely went up against a tough 17-2 Brett Johns in his first UFC fight, so it seems fair to give him some benefit of the doubt.
Gravely’s last nine fights have all ended early (7-2), with six KO’s (6-0) and three submissions (1-2). Five of his six career losses have come by submission, including three in the first round: R3 Rear-Naked Choke, R1 Guillotine Choke, R1 Armbar, R2 Rear-Naked Choke, R1 Rear-Naked Choke. His only decision loss came against Merab Dvalishvili back in 2016. In his 25 pro fights, 11 of his 19 career wins came early with 8 KO's and 3 submissions (R2 Rear-Naked Choke, R1 Guillotine Choke, R1 Rear-Naked Choke). He only has three R1 wins in those 11 early finishes.
In Gravely’s DWCS fight he landed 73 significant strikes, three takedowns and two submissions and once you add on his advances he would have put up over 100 DraftKings points in the R3 KO victory.
Geraldo de Freitas
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)De Freitas is coming off an August 2019 close split decision loss against Chris Gutierrez in his second UFC fight after winning his UFC debut earlier in the year, which also ended in a decision. While both fights went the distance, De Freitas was able to score a massive 128 DraftKings points in his debut victory by way of 49 significant strikes, 6 takedowns, 2 reversals and 11 advances. While performances like that are tough to repeat, it’s an indication of his style and ceiling as a grappler. De Freitas hasn't fought in 15 months following a medical suspension.
While four of De Freitas’ last five fights have ended in decisions, the BJJ black belt may have more upside than his recent record indicates. Also, if you look at his career as a whole, 9 of his 12 career wins have come early, while all five of his losses were by decision. He has four career wins by KO, five by submission and just three by decision.
This sets up as an interesting grappling match that either fighter could win. We think the winner is likely to score well, especially on DraftKings, based on advances and reversals. De Freitas has seen the line move in his favor and looks like a solid value play on both sites, but you’ll likely want some exposure to both fighters. We like De Freitas’ chances of getting a submission win here in a grappling heavy affair.
Kanako Murata
1st UFC Fight (0-0)A former wrestling champion turned MMA fighter, Murata is coming off a five round split decision Invicta Championship victory. Now making her UFC debut, she’s on a seven fight winning streak and has won four of her last 5 fights by submission—R1 Rear-Naked Choke, R2 Shoulder Choke, another R2 Shoulder Choke, and a R1 Anaconda Choke. Her only career loss came in a R3 Rear-Naked Choke back in 2016, in her first year as a pro. Murata has two KO wins, four submission wins and five wins by decision.
Murata came dangerously close to getting armbarred multiple times in her last fight, but showed good patience and IQ to get out of danger. Markos notably has four Armbar submission wins, but three of those came in her first five pro fights against a very low level of competition prior to joining the UFC.
Murata was originally scheduled to fight Lívia Renata Souza before Souza withdrew and Markos stepped in on short notice.
Randa Markos
16th UFC Fight (6-8-1)Coming off back to back losses for the first time in her career, Markos is two months removed from a R1 Armbar Submission loss to Mackenzie Dern. She previously lost a three round decision to Amanda Ribas back in March.
She’s now lost three of her last four fights and her last win came in an October 2019 split decision against Ashley Yoder. Three of her last four and eight of her last 10 fights have all ended in decisions. The only two exceptions over that period were both R1 Armbars—the R1 loss in her last fight and a R1 win against Angela Hill in 2019. She was also submitted by Courtney Casey via R1 Armbar in 2016.
In fact, Markos has never been in a fight that didn’t end with either an Armbar Submission or a decision in her 20 pro bouts. There have been six Armbars Submissions (4-2) and 14 decisions (6-7-1) in her eight year pro career.
Markos notably beat Carla Esparza in a 2017 split decision, outlanding Esparza 48-32 in significant strikes. Esparza was able to land four takedowns in the match, while Markos didn’t land any of her own for the first time in her career. Just like Murata, Esparza stands at 5’1” and has a wrestling background.
No one has ever landed more than four takedowns on Markos and she’s only allowed a total of four takedowns in her last nine fights since the Esparza fight.
Here are how Marko’s opponents have done on takedowns against her, beginning with the most recent (attempted/landed):
Dern 0/0
Ribas 1/3
Yoder 2/6
Gadelha 0/1
Hill 0/0
Rodriguez 0/0
Ansaroff 0/0
Lima 1/2
Grasso 0/0
Esparza 4/10
Casey 0/0
Jones-Lybarger 1/1
Kowalkiewicz 0/0
Daly 2/5
Penne 4/8
We counted 17 takedown attempts by Murata in her last fight, but that was also a 25 minute match. Over the span of 15 minutes that would equate to just over 10 takedown attempts, and we would expect her to land 4-5 of those against Markos. We don’t think she would add enough advances and significant strikes to break 100 DraftKings points but you never know. Murata certainly has a chance to score decently and she’s shown she’s a threat to end fights early. We think you’ll want some exposure to her and we like her to win the fight in a decision. Markos just isn’t an ideal matchup for a wrestler. Murata will likely get a better matchup the next time she steps in the octagon.
LATE TAKE: At just $14 on FanDuel, Markos is definitely interesting with the chance to rack up takedowns defended and she’s always an Armbar Submission threat.
UPDATE: Markos weighed in a quarter pound over initially, but made weight after they brought out the towel. This is sort of understandable since she took the fight on short notice and we don’t think this changes a whole lot.
Louis Smolka
15th UFC Fight (7-7)Win or lose, Louis Smolka seems to be done with leaving fights up to the judges. He initially joined the UFC in 2014—the same year as Quinonez—and saw six of his first 10 fights go to decisions. He lost the last four fights out of those ten, with the last three being decided by the judges. Following the streak of losses, he was let go by the UFC and forced to fight elsewhere.
He seemed to take the demotion in stride and won three straight fights in 2018 with a R1 KO, a R3 Guillotine Submission and a R2 KO. Following the string of early victories the UFC decided to give him another shot less than a year after releasing him. He made the most of his second opportunity, landing a R2 Armbar submission upon his return.
It’s notable to point out that while Smolka fought at 125 lb in his first stint in the UFC, he moved up to the 135 lb division when he returned. The switch seemed to do him good and he talked about how rough the weight cut down to 125 lb was for him based on his height. He also talked about dealing with alcohol abuse earlier in his career, that he had since gotten past. He did lose his second fight back against a tough Matt Schnell by R1 Triangle Choke, but if you fight for finishes you can’t expect to win them all. He bounced back from that loss with a R1 KO win, before most recently losing by R1 Guillotine Choke against Casey Kenney.
His last seven fights have now all ended early, with his last three ending in R1. He hasn’t lost back to back fights since getting booted from the UFC in 2017, and likely wants to keep it that way. At just 29 years old, Smolka has been through more than most fighters his age, but theoretically his best years could still be ahead of him.
Smolka was born for DFS. He hits hard enough that the majority of his strikes are counted as significant, but not so hard that he can’t rack up volume. He can finish opponents on the feet or on the mat—meaning he can score well wherever the fight goes. And he loses enough that his ownership and price don’t get out of control, but wins enough that you can feel good about playing him.
In his last four UFC wins, he’s scored a massive 130, 105, 162 and 116 DraftKings points. Also, his DraftKings sheet makes his record look worse than it really is, as it doesn’t show his three early wins outside of the UFC. So casuals may look at it and mistakenly think he’s lost 6 of his last 8 fights.
Jose Quinonez
9th UFC Fight (5-3)Coming off a March 2020 R1 KO loss to Sean O'Malley, Quinonez has lost two of his last three fights. Prior to his recent loss, he won a three round decision, but the fight before that was a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submissions loss against Nathaniel Wood.
After losing his 2014 UFC debut in a low volume decision, Quinonez bounced back with his only early victory in the UFC coming via a R1 Rear-Naked Choke. The early win marked the beginning of a four fight win streak that he milked over the next four years. The next three wins all came in decisions.
Not a high volume striker, Quinonez requires the perfect storm of striking, knockdowns, takedowns and advances to score well in decisions. He was able to achieve that once in a bizarrely high scoring 2016 decision that tallied 118 DraftKings points through 56 significant strikes, 2 knockdowns, 5 takedowns and 5 advances. His last three wins, which were also all decisions, scored nowhere near that, coming in at 86, 68 and 71 DraftKings points. It seems fair to say the 2016 result was simply an anomaly.
With his last four wins coming in low volume decisions, and failing to land more than two takedowns in his last five fights, in addition to his last two losses coming early, Quinonez seems like a low floor, low ceiling DFS play. He does have two R1 KO wins to his name, but those came in his first and third pro fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before and never fought again after. He was also KO’d in 2013 by grappler and now UFC fighter Davi Ramos, who has never KO’d anyone else in his entire career.
While Smolka has been finished early three times in his career, all by submission, those all came against much better grapplers than Quinonez. We like Smolka to get the early finish here and he looks like a solid value on both DFS sites with slate breaking potential. He’ll also almost certainly go underowned at CPT/MVP.
UPDATE: Smolka missed weight badly, coming in three pounds over the limit. He didn’t even attempt to use the towel, but we didn’t think he looked especially terrible outside of the miss. However, we think this is still a red flag.
Alex Morono
11th UFC Fight (6-3, NC)Hoping to bounce back from a 27 second R1 KO loss against Khaos Williams this past February, Morono had won his three fights prior, including a 2019 decision win over Max Griffin and a R1 KO prior to that. Morono knocked Griffin down late in the second round and looked incredibly close to a finish or else we could be talking about how his last three fights all ended in the first two rounds.
While two of his last three fights have ended with R1 KO’s (1-1), six of his 10 UFC fights have ended in decisions. Morono split the four that ended early, with R1 KO and R1 Guillotine Submission wins, but also R1 KO and R2 KO losses. The 2017 R2 KO loss against Niko Price was later overturned to a “No Contest” when Price tested positive for marijuana, so Morono’s record doesn’t tell the full story, as he’s really been KO’d three times and not twice. Morono did drop Price in the first round and looked decent before getting knocked out in the second.
Morono once won a fight when his opponent got disqualified for "Biting". No additional analysis there.
Morono has five career KO wins and six by submission. Three of those submissions were R1 Armbars very early in his career. Prior to joining the UFC, Morono had eight R1 wins, three by KO and five submissions (three Armbars, one Guillotine Choke and one Triangle Choke). He also had a R3 KO win and was KO’d himself once in R1. He has never been submitted.
Having not landed a takedown in any of his 10 UFC fights, Morono is dependent on an early finish to score well in DFS. Luckily for him, this matchup seems likely to end early.
Rhys McKee
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)After getting violently assaulted by Khamzat Chimaev for the 189 seconds that his UFC debut lasted, there was speculation that McKee might drop back down from 170 lb to 155 lb where he had been previously fighting up until his last two fights. However, McKee decided to stay at 170 lb for his second UFC fight. He did land a R1 KO at 170 lb in his first fight after moving up, just before his recent bludgeoning, so maybe it’s fair to take another crack at it. However, it’s hard to see him dropping many UFC Welterweights with a jab the way he did in that last Cage Warriors fight.
McKee seemed to be riding high on confidence, coming into the UFC on a three fight winning streak, so it will be interesting to see how he looks after the beating he took on the big stage.
Nine of McKee’s 13 pro fights have ended in R1, including three of his last four and five of his last seven. Of the nine R1 stoppages, he’s won seven of them, with the two exceptions being the recent R1 KO in his debut and a 2017 R1 KO. His only other pro loss came in a 2018 three round decision, which was the only time any of his fights have made it to the judges. In addition to his seven R1 wins (5 KO’s & 2 Submissions), McKee has two R2 KO’s and a R3 Guillotine Choke Submission win.
McKee will have a 3” height advantage and a 6” reach advantage in this fight, but the 30-year-old Morono will have the experience advantage over the 25-year-old McKee. While Morono has struggled against blitzing power punchers, McKee is more of a lean jabber who seems unlikely to overwhelm Morono with flurries of haymakers. McKee’s R1 win record gives some reason to think he has theoretical upside, and the absolute bludgeoning he took in his UFC debut will likely keep his ownership low. However, we haven’t been overly impressed by what we’ve seen from him on tape and we like Morono to end this fight early.
Miranda Granger
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)“Danger” Granger is coming off her first pro loss coming by way of R1 Rear-Naked Choke in her second UFC fight. She went to sleep alarmingly quickly in a very unorthodox Rear-Naked Choke against Amanda Lemos, who appeared to have her more around the jaw than the neck.
Granger had won her seven prior pro fights, with all six of her pre UFC fights ending early—including five in R1. She has five R1 submission wins (two by Armbar, two by Guillotine Choke and one by Rear-Naked Choke) and one R2 KO win. Her only fight to make it to the judges came in a win in her 2019 UFC debut against never-been-finished (in 6 fights), and previously undefeated, Hannan Goldy.
Despite her submission-heavy track record, Granger has yet to attempt a takedown in her two UFC fights. She made her UFC debut at 125 lb before dropping down to 115 lb for her last fight.
Granger has given us no indication she can score well in a decision, making her entirely reliant on an early finish to put up a useful score. While her history of early finishes is encouraging, her opponent’s decision run could be problematic.
Ashley Yoder
8th UFC Fight (2-5)Coming off a pair of losses, all seven of Yoder’s UFC fights have now ended in decisions. A one trick pony when it comes to finishes, Yoder is (was?) an armbar specialist who has seen all 13 of her pro fights end either in decisions or Armbar Submission wins. However, all four of her submission wins came in her first six pro fights, prior to joining the UFC. Her opponents in those fights entered with records of 0-2, 1-3, 0-0 and 6-2.
Upon entering the UFC, she proceeded to lose her first three fights—although you could argue that taking Mackenzie Dern to a decision is at least a moral victory. She kept her UFC hopes alive by winning her next two fights, but has since dropped her most recent two. It’s worth pointing out that three of her seven decisions were split so she’s been involved in several close fights.
The only time Yoder was able to score above 65 DraftKings points was in her 2019 decision win over Syuri Kondo where she landed 70 significant strikes and a takedown—but more importantly tacked on eight advances. Yoder showed a similar ability to rack up advances in her UFC debut, where she had seven advances in addition to three reversals, despite only landing one takedown. Had the decision gone her way in that one, she would have scored 93 DraftKings points. Her kinetic ground presence presents some DraftKings specific hidden upside, but is far from something you can bank on. Granger has also only had one takedown attempt against her, which was landed, but it’s hard to know how good her takedown defense is based on that lone transaction.
This sets up for a low volume decision unless one of these two ladies trips and falls into a submission. We think you’ll want to mostly fade both of them in DFS, but based on their near identical pricing, we can see an argument for Granger as a value play. The close/identical pricing will also almost certainly keep Yoder’s ownership near the bottom on the slate, so she makes a little bit of sense as a high-risk leverage play, especially on DraftKings where she has the potential to rack up advances as discussed above. Initially we were on Granger, but we actually think Yoder wins a decision here and even has a minute chance of getting a submission. With that said, Granger has seen the line move in her favor so we may be on an island here. We wouldn’t recommend having much exposure to this fight regardless.
Sean Strickland
12th UFC Fight (8-3)Fighting for the second time in just two weeks after winning a decision boxing/yelling match against Jack Marshman on Halloween, Strickland appears to be looking to make up for lost time following a two year layoff due to a motorcycle accident. Strickland has talked about how his leg/knee is still messed up from the accident so that remains an area of concern—unless he’s just completely full of shit, which is also entirely possible.
Claiming that Middleweights (185 lb) were too big for him, Strickland has fought most of his UFC career at 170 lb before moving back up to Middleweight for his last fight. Booked on short notice, this fight will now be at a 195 lb catchweight, so it will be interesting to see how Strickland adapts.
Strickland has the ability to score well in DFS, but can also frustratingly grind out decisions with his methodical approach as he carefully inches towards his opponents. He has never been submitted and has only been knocked out once in 24 pro fights—which came on an unconventional Spinning Wheel Kick from Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
Of Strickland’s 20 pro wins, nine came by KO and four by submission. All four of his submission wins were by Rear-Naked Choke. Seven of his last 10 fights have now ended in decisions, after 11 of his first 14 pro fights ended early. Of those last 10 fights, his only two early wins came on a 2018 R2 KO and a 2016 R3 KO. Those were the only instances over that period that he scored above 94 DraftKings points. He hasn’t landed a takedown in five of his last six fights, so he’s entirely reliant on a combination of volume, knockdowns and early finishes to score well in DFS. He was able to put up useful DFS scores in his later round KO’s, but now he’s going up against Brendan Allen who’s never been knocked out.
Strickland’s elite 81% takedown defense is sure to be tested in this one. He notably defended all 11 of Court McGee’s attempts in their 2017 match and the lone attempt by Dos Santos, but his last two opponents have not attempted a takedown. Let’s take a look at his entire UFC career.
Here are how Strickland’s opponents have faired on takedowns against him, beginning with the most recent (attempted/landed):
Marshman 0/0
Taleb 0/0
Dos Santos 0/1
McGee 0/11
Usman 2/8
Breese 0/3
Garcia 3/7
Araujo 0/3
Ponzinibbio 1/3
Barnatt 0/1
McDaniel 1/1
As you can see, Strickland’s opponents combined to go 7 for 38 on takedowns against him and only two of his 11 opponents were able to land more than one. One thing worth noting is that we’ve yet to see Strickland defend a takedown since his motorcycle accident and it’s entirely possible his base is compromised with his elegid bum leg. Unfortunately, we can only speculate in that department.
We do think Allen is one of the better wrestlers Strickland has faced and should be able to get Strickland down with at least some success. We think Strickland has the striking advantage on the feet so Allen’s game plan should revolve around getting the fight to the ground.
Brendan Allen
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Earning his spot in the UFC with a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission win on the Contender Series, the 24-year-old Allen comes into this fight on a seven fight winning streak with five of those coming early—including two R1 KO’s and three Rear-Naked Chokes (R1, R2 & R3).
No one has landed more than 34 significant strikes on Allen in a UFC fight and only his most recent match has made it to the third round. He impressively won his UFC debut, submitting Kevin Holland in R2. He followed that up with R1 KO against Tom Breese, before surprisingly getting taken to a decision by newcomer Kyle Daukaus in a gritty fight between two guys with very similar fighting styles.
Allen has never been KO'd and has just three career losses. The only person to finish him early was Trevin Giles, who submitted Allen in 2016 with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke in Allen’s third pro fight when he was just 20 years old. Allen’s other two losses also came against current UFC fighters, both in five round decisions, against Eryk Anders in 2017 and Anthony Hernandez in 2018.
A BJJ black belt, only two of Allen’s 15 career wins required the judges to be involved. He has five wins by KO and eight submission wins—six by Rear-Naked Choke, one Triangle Choke and one Keylock Submission. Eight of those finishes came in R1, four in R2 and just one in R3.
Apparently the loss to Giles stuck with Allen, as after his win over Breese he called out Giles in the post fight interview and asked the UFC to make it happen. Instead the UFC scheduled him to fight Ian Heinisch on June 27th, however Heinisch withdrew from the fight due to injury and Daukaus stepped in. The Heinisch fight was rescheduled for last week, but was canceled on the day of the event when Heinisch’s COVID test came back positive. Allen wasn’t forced to wait long for a new opponent as Strickland stepped in to face him.
Allen opened as a -170 favorite, but this fight was quickly bet down close to a coin flip. Both of these fighters have the potential to end the fight early, but the oddsmakers have this favored to go to the judges. Given their middle of the road pricing, a decision score in the mid 90’s could be enough, at least on DraftKings, to sneak into the optimal lineup. We’d be lying if we said we knew who was going to win this one, but it sets up as one of the best fights on the slate. You’ll definitely want exposure to both sides.
One thing to take advantage of is how the two different DFS sites priced these fights. Allen is priced cheaper on DraftKings, where he’s actually a better play than on FanDuel because of advances and reversals. And at the same time, Strickland is priced cheaper on FanDuel, where he’s a better play because of takedowns defended.
Eryk Anders
11th UFC Fight (5-5)UPDATE: THIS FIGHT IS OFF!
Anders is coming off a decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko back in May, which marked his 5th straight fight without landing a takedown, after landing 12 in his first five UFC fights. Beginning with his most recent fight, Anders has gone 0/5, 0/0, 0/0. 0/1, and 0/1 on takedowns in his last five fights. When you combine that with his low striking volume and the fact that four of his last five fights have ended in decisions, he makes for a lackluster R1 KO or bust DFS play. It doesn’t help that he’s lost four of his last six fights either. The one bright spot to note for Anders is that two of his last three wins have come by KO, but one of those was a 2018 R3 win that still wasn’t enough to be useful in DFS.
While 9 of his 13 career wins have come early (8 KO's & 1 Submission), six of those came in his first seven fights against mostly a lower level of competition. Not really a submission threat, Anders lone submission win came in a 2016 R1 Rear-Naked Choke.
Fighting at both 185 lb and 205 lb in the UFC, Anders has gone 1-2 at Light Heavyweight (205 lb), while going 4-3 at Middleweight (185 lb), where this fight will be. He has one UFC KO victory at 205 lb and two at 185 lb. On the flip side, four of his five UFC losses have come by decision and the only person to knock him out in his entire pro career was Thiago Santos in R3 of their 2018 match. Anders has never been submitted in 18 pro fights.
Antonio Arroyo
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)A year removed from a decision loss in his UFC debut against a tough Andre Muniz, Arroyo had won his five prior fights, including back-to-back wins (a year apart) on DWCS with a R3 decision and then more recently a R2 Arm-Triangle Choke.
Arroyo has never been KO'd, but has been submitted twice with a 2015 R1 Guillotine Choke and then a 2017 R1 Rear-Naked Choke. Arroyo’s first nine pro fights all ended in R1, with him winning seven of those (4 KO’s & 3 Submission). Those did come against a lower level of competition with records of 0-1, 0-0, 4-5, 0-0, 11-2, 2-4, and 1-1. Now going against a higher level of fighter, two of Arroyo’s last three fights have ended in decisions.
This sets up as a potential stalemate between two powerful, yet tough to finish fighters. Both guys have the power to knock the other out, and Arroyo also has the submission skills to finish the fight on the mat, but we think there’s a good chance this turns into a low volume decision that either guy could win. While picking dogs has been an exercise in futility lately, we’ll say Arroyo wins a decision here, but he definitely has a chance to get it done early.
UPDATE: Anders missed weight, coming in a pound and half over the limit, and looked terrible weighing in. Big red flag. Arroyo makes for an ever more interesting play now.
Kay Hansen
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a win in her June UFC debut over Jinh Yu Frey (who was also making her debut), Hansen is a pure grappler who doesn’t offer a ton on her feet. The 21-year-old Hansen is 7-3 in her short pro career and is riding a three fight winning streak. Her last eight fights have all made it to round three, but she was able to end five of those before they made it to the judges—which makes her +1800 R3 submission line worth looking at. Three of her last four wins have been by R3 submissions.
Her last two losses both came in decisions, but she has been finished early once in a R2 KO in her second pro fight just back in 2018. Her only win to come in the first two rounds came by way of R1 Armbar in her first pro fight in 2017.
Hansen will have a 1” height advantage and a 5” reach advantage in this fight.
"You do not want to miss this fight!"
-Dana White on Hansen vs. McKenna
Cory McKenna
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut three months after a decision win on DWCS, McKenna is also just 21 years old and has only six pro fights to her name. She managed to win five of those with the one loss coming in a 2018 split decision. Three of her five wins have come early, including a R1 KO and a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission in her two fights prior to going on DWCS. She also technically landed a R1 KO in her first pro fight, although it came between rounds when her opponent's corner stopped the fight.
Training both for MMA and powerlifting since she was a young teenager, the Welsh (Welshman?, Welshwoman?) McKenna has trained with fellow UFC Brit Molly McCann as well as with Team Alpha Male.
This fight between two young grapplers should be interesting and we see a wide range of possible outcomes. It's likely we see one or both ladies rack up takedowns, advances, reversals, and submission attempts. But as we sometimes see when two grapplers square off, it’s also possible both women respect the other’s ground game to the point that they spend more time than we would expect on their feet. But with that said, we still think that Hansen especially will want to take the fight to the mat early and often.
The line feels a bit wide, which presents some solid DFS value with McKenna—if you have the stomach to keep playing dogs despite the run of favorites we’ve seen lately. We think this fight makes it into the later rounds and the most likely outcome, at least according to the oddsmakers, is for it to go to a decision. That could make it tough for Hansen to return value at her steep price while McKenna could be a solid value under the right circumstances.
UPDATE: McKenna initially missed weight by a half pound but then brought out the towel and made it. She didn’t look too bad otherwise, but it’s still a slight red flag.
Abdul Razak Alhassan
7th UFC Fight (4-2)After losing a decision in his first fight back after a 22 month layoff, Alhassan will look to regain his former momentum. All 10 of his career wins have come by R1 KO, while his only two losses were both by decision. He had won three in a row prior to the recent loss. His last win was an impressive 43 second R1 KO of Niko Price back in 2019.
After burning the field in his last fight, when he was 48% owned as a -342 favorite with a +110 R1 win line, it will be interesting to see if people are more reluctant to play him. Alhassan missed weight by 3 lb in that fight and looked to slow down as the fight went on against a very tough newcomer in Mounir Lazzez. It will be important to pay extra attention to Alhassan at weigh-ins and another miss would be a big red flag.
Alhassan appears to be the ultimate R1 KO or bust play, having never even won a fight that made it to R2. His four R1 wins in the UFC scored 108, 107, 119, and 126 DraftKings points.
"Nobody has been able to stop Khaos yet."
-Dana White on Alhassan vs. Williams
Khaos Williams
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Coming off a 27 second R1 KO against Alex Morono in his UFC debut, Khaos has now won his last seven fights including three of his last four in R1. Unlike Alhassan, Khaos has won four of his 10 career wins by decision, giving him a wider range of outcomes in wins. With that said, five of his six early wins came in R1. Williams’ only career loss came in a 2018 decision.
Neither of these fighters have ever been finished early, but the oddsmakers are expecting that to change come Saturday—setting the odds for the fight to end early at -565. The public seemed to agree, and the line was quickly bet up to -650 by Wednesday. Both of these guys can throw flurries of furious punches, so it should make for an exciting first few minutes/seconds.
If the fight does escape the first round, we think Khaos makes for the better DFS play at a much lower price and with a history of winning fights that last longer than five minutes. Even with a later win, Alhassan may have a hard time returning value. Khaos is cheap on both DFS sites, but he seems criminally underpriced on FanDuel especially, where he’s just $8. We saw last week with Taha, who was also $8 on FanDuel, that even in a loss it’s possible for a bottom priced fighter to make the optimal in slates where favorites dominate.
We could see this fight going either way depending on who lands the first clean punch and think you’ll want exposure to both sides, but we prefer Khaos.
NOTE: Williams’ crazy volume stats on The Sheet are based off his one 27 second UFC fight and can more or less be ignored.
UPDATE: Alhassan missed weight again, coming in a pound and half over the limit, and looked pretty dejected and drained. He didn’t look as bad as Anders but this is still a big red flag.
Rafael Dos Anjos
30th UFC Fight (18-11)Coming off back to back decisions losses and dropping four of his last five fights, RDA will now be moving down from 170 lb back to 155 lb, where he previously fought at until 2017 when he moved up to 170 lb against Saffiedine. RDA went 4-4 at the 170 lb class after starting his UFC career 14-7 at 155 lb. He had been scheduled to fight Islam Makhachevc on October 24th until Makhachevc tested positive for COVID. Then the fight was rescheduled for this weekend, but Makhachevc pulled out for medical reasons. Felder stepped in on just five days notice.
At just 5’8” RDA seemed to struggle against his more recent taller opponents in 6’1” Chiesa and 6’2” Edwards. Both guys were able to get RDA down and control him on the ground. Something we definitely don’t see Felder looking to do. RDA’s last win came against 5’9” Kevin Lee. The 5’11” Felder will have a 3” height advantage over RDA, but both fighters share a 70” reach.
Five of RDA’s last six fights have ended in decisions, with the only exception coming in a R4 submission win over Kevin Lee. He’s only been finished three times in 42 pro fights, all by KO—a 2016 R1 KO vs Eddie Alvarez, a 2010 R3 KO vs Clay Guida, and a 2008 R3 KO vs Jeremy Stephens.
In total, 18 of his 29 UFC fights have ended in decisions, four in submissions, and sevin in KO's. His last 5 losses all ended in decisions, and four of those were 5 rounders. A BJJ blackbelt, RDA will have the grappling advantage in this fight. Experience will also be in his favor, as this will be his 11th five round fight in the UFC compared to just Felder’s second. RDA went 5-5 in his first 10 five rounders, but has lost three of his last four.
The last fighter not to land a takedown on RDA was Robby Lawler in their 2017 five round fight. Similar to what we expect out of Felder, Lawler didn’t even attempt any takedowns. On the other side of things, RDA went 2 for 7 on takedowns, while outlanding Lawler 172-86 in significant strikes. It’s worth noting that Lawler hurt his left leg/knee early in the fight and it definitely had a big impact on his performance. Regardless, RDA went on to score 129 DraftKings points in the match.
Paul Felder
15th UFC Fight (9-5)Stepping out of the broadcasters booth and into a five round fight on just five days notice, Felder has his work cut out for him in terms of both the weight and the cardio. He said he had been training for a triathlon, which should help on both fronts.
He is coming off a close five round split decision loss to Dan Hooker this past February in Hooker’s native New Zealand, Felder seemed to struggle to find his range early on against the taller Hooker who also had a 5” reach advantage. The entire fight was fought on the feet until a late takedown by Hooker with just a minute left in the fight. That was Felder’s first five round fight in the UFC and afterwards he discussed possibly retiring.
His last four fights have now all ended in decisions, with Felder winning half of them. He has won 5 of his last 7 fights, however, including three KO victories in 2017 (two in R1 & one in R2).
A black belt in Taekwondo and Karate, Felder’s really a pure striker and his lone career submission win came in a 2016 R3 Rear-Naked Choke. He has no desire to wrestle or fight on the mat and while doing commentary on the Lazzez/Alhassan fight, Felder asked what the name of the ref was that kept standing the fighters up so quickly and joked he wanted him for his next fight.
Felder has only been finished early once in 22 pro fights, which was in a 2016 R3 doctor's stoppage against Francisco Trinaldo.
We think this one likely ends up in a close decision, but Felder accepting it on short notice certainly makes you wonder how he’ll fair in the later rounds. This is another Main Event we’re not looking to take too hard of a stand on, but we’re leaning towards RDA winning this one in a decision. Based on how few dogs have been winning lately, the Main Event seems like one of your best bets to find value, but this slate also seems to have more live dogs than what we’ve seen recently. RDA has also shown a little bit higher of a ceiling.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma