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Fighter Notes:
Fight #15
Matthew Semelsberger
2nd UFC Fight (1-0)Dropping out of college a semester away from graduating at the end of 2015, former FCS/D1-AA strong safety Matthew Semelsberger chose to pursue MMA instead of finishing school. A year and a half later he went pro in early 2017 and started off his career with back-to-back finishes. Fast forward to 2021 and he's 7-2 with seven of his nine fights ending early.
Looking to keep his momentum going after beating a terrible Carlton Minus in his UFC debut last August, Semelsberger comes in on a four fight winning streak, but all against far less experienced opponents than anyone he’ll face moving forward in the UFC. He acknowledged as much in a recent interview, and attributed his seven month layoff to trying to improve as a fighter before taking any more fights. He trains out of a small gym with no other UFC fighters and very limited professional sparring partners, so it will be interesting to see how his grappling holds up against a veteran like Witt. For what it’s worth, Semelsberger predicted this fight would end early.
Semelsberger has solid striking and the drive to push the pace in fights, and will have the advantage on the feet, but he will be severely outmatched on the ground. We expect this match to come down to his takedown defense and defensive wrestling. Minus missed on his only takedown attempt in their fight, so we really haven’t seen Semelsberger’s defense be tested yet in the grappling department. However, he looked lost on the submission attempt he went for on Minus after landing a knockdown and is just a blue belt in BJJ (2nd lowest level), whereas Witt is a brown belt.
Five of Semelsberger’s seven pro wins have come early, with four KOs and one submission. Both of his pro losses have also come early, with a 2017 R3 Brabo Choke Submission in his third pro fight and then a 2018 R3 KO in his 5th pro match. Since then, he’s won a pair of decisions and landed a couple KOs across the first two rounds.
Semelsberger started off as a 205 lb amateur before dropping down to 185 lb when he went pro. He then dropped down to 170 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed since.
Jason Witt
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)After seeing his June short notice UFC debut go down in flames with a 48 second R1 KO loss, the 34-year-old Witt bounced back with a R2 submission win against a fellow 0-1 UFC opponent in Cole Williams, who weighed in 4.5 lb over the 171 lb limit. Eight seconds into the fight Witt grabbed a single-leg, pushed Williams up against the cage, converted it to a double and then picked Williams up and slammed him. Once on the ground, he immediately took Williams’ back and easily controlled him for the duration of the round, while advancing his position and laying heavy ground and pound. Witt opened up a big cut on Williams from a slicing elbow with a minute left in the first round. Witt didn’t immediately shoot for a takedown in the second round, and showed some level of patience before finding an opening 40 seconds in. He showcased his strength, picking up Williams and carrying him across the Octagon over to his corner before slamming him once again. With James Krause in his corner calmly directing the action, Witt was never in any danger in this match and submitted Williams two minutes into the second round.
In his previous fight, which was his short notice UFC debut, Witt showed a suspect chin as he immediately got dropped by Takashi Sato. In fairness to Witt, he took that fight on ultra short notice, with just a day to prepare. Prior to that June loss, Witt had been on a four fight winning streak, but the last three had all come by decision. While his two UFC matches both ended in the first two rounds, seven of his most recent eight fights before joining the organization made it to the third round. He won all seven of those, with five ending in decisions. Only one of his last 11 fights has ended in R1, which was his KO loss in his UFC debut. He’s impressively won 10 of his last 12 fights.
In his 24 pro fights, he has three KO wins and eight submission victories. While his last two submission wins have come in the later rounds, the first six submission wins of his career all came in R1. All six of his career losses have come early with four KOs and two submissions. Five of his six career losses have come in the first two rounds.
Fight Prediction:
Semelsberger will have a 3” height advantage and 5” reach advantage and is six years younger than Witt.
Witt is a solid grappler, but looks very vulnerable on his feet. With his last three losses all coming by KO, the key to defeating Witt is to not let him get a hold of you. Semelsberger is still a very young and raw fighter, and has never faced an opponent with the grappling skills of Witt. He’s only had to defend one takedown so far in the UFC and that was against a non-UFC level talent in Carlton Minus. So it’s really hard to know how good his takedown defense is, but it’s hard to imagine that it’s exceptional at this point in his career. He played strong safety in college, so his job was to take people down, not to avoid being taken down. We don’t see Semelsberger’s takedown defense holding up for long and think he’s in a world of trouble if/when the fight gets to the mat, so it seems like he’ll need an early KO to win this fight. His ITD line checks in at +260 (25%), while his R1 win line is just +550 (11%). That essentially gives Semelsberger a puncher's chance to land something clean on Witt before this fight ends up on the ground. If Semelsberger is unable to get a quick KO, look for Witt to end this fight with a submission in the first two rounds or at the very least control it for the duration if he’s unable to land a submission.
Our favorite bet here is that the fight ends ITD at +124. After that, we like “Witt Wins by Submission” at +600, “Witt Wins by R1 Submission” at +1600 and “Semelsberger Wins by KO” at +410. Witt’s R2 and R3 submission lines are also in play at +1600 and +2100 respectively.
DFS Implications:
Semelsberger had a productive debut as he outlanded Carlton Minus 118-77 in significant strikes, while landing a knockdown, a pair of takedowns and a submission attempt. That was good for 103 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel. That was also a near best case scenario matchup for him, going against an opponent with no grappling game, average striking, and also making his debut. While that first fight was perfectly geared towards Semelsberger’s brawling fighting style, this next one sets up as a technical grappling match where we can’t rely on striking volume for Semelsberger to score well. His ITD line is +260 (25%), while his R1 win line is just +550 (11%), so you can see the odds of him getting a finish according to the oddsmakers are somewhat of a longshot. After opening as a -155 favorite, the line has moved heavily against him. This looks like a tough spot for Semelsberger, but if can overcome the odds and land an early KO, look for him to crack the optimal lineup. With his only DraftKings score coming in at 103 points, Semelsberger is head and shoulders above everyone else in FPPF, which generally results in a boost in ownership. We expect the field to overvalue the score, while omitting the context.
Witt is also coming off a big DFS performance, with a R2 submission win in his last match that scored 105 DraftKings points and 104 on FanDuel. His dominating control time and ground strikes in that match certainly benefited from the new DraftKings scoring system (how long do we call it new for?). With that said, Witt looks like a great play on both sites and is one of our favorite underdogs on the slate. Coming off a big win, we do expect him to be fairly popular, but hey, they can’t all be low owned plays. We wouldn’t classify him as a safe play, because he’s shown a dubious chin and can really only win this fight on the ground. So if he gets caught with a clean shot going for a takedown or struggles to get the fight to the ground, he’ll be in real trouble. The oddsmakers have set his ITD line at just +310 (22%), which seems low, but his last three fights prior to joining the UFC did all end in decisions. Witt has seen the line move heavily in his favor, and priced at just $7,800 a grappling heavy win would likely still be enough for him to score well on DraftKings.
Fight #12
Gloria de Paula
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making her UFC debut following a dominating November decision win on DWCS, Gloria only turned pro three and a half years ago, and has just seven fights on her record. With that said, she comes into the UFC 5-2, with her only two losses occurring in decisions against opponents who have since debuted in the UFC. She lost her second pro fight back in 2017 to Ariane Carnelossi, who lost her 2019 debut against Angela Hill and hasn’t fought since. Gloria’s other loss came in a 2019 decision against Isabela de Padua, who also lost her 2019 UFC debut and hasn’t fought since.
Gloria has three wins by KO and two decision victories. Her first career KO came at the end of the first round in her July 2017 pro debut against a fighter who entered 0-3, and who’s now 0-6. Her second career KO came late in the third round of a 2018 match against a fighter making her pro debut. Her third career KO was also at the end of R3, this time against a 3-0 fighter.
In her recent DWCS match, she outlanded her opponent 69-12 in significant strikes and accrued nearly eight minutes of control time. She was going against a Judo specialist, so there was little chance it would turn into a brawl. Gloria successfully defended 9 of 11 takedown attempts and looked great on the feet, but did not attempt a takedown of her own. She also went for an extended submission attempt in the first round, which limited the striking potential early on.
Gloria looks like a solid striker, who throws heavy straight punches that maximize her reach. She also is great at throwing knees to the body in the clinch. Of note, all six of her fights since her pro debut have made it to the 3rd round.
Jinh Yu Frey
3rd UFC Fight (0-2)After fighting her entire career at Atomweight (105 lb), Frey was forced to move up to Strawweight (115 lb) when she joined the UFC. Since the move up, Frey has gone 0-2 with a third round submission loss in her June 2020 UFC debut followed by a decision loss in October. She’s now lost three of her last four fights and should be desperate for a win.
Frey’s last three wins were all five round decisions and five of her last six fights have made it to the judges. However, three of her last five losses have come early. Those include a 2016 R2 KO due to a doctor stoppage, a 2017 R1 KO, and the 2020 R3 submission loss in her UFC debut. Three of Frey’s nine career wins have also come early, with all three ending in the first round. However those should be taken with a grain of salt, as all three of those wins came in her first four pro fights against opponents who entered with records of 1-4, 3-2 and 0-2.
Frey coincidentally landed exactly 26 significant strikes in each of her first two UFC fights, while going 1 for 4 on takedowns, with all of those attempts coming in her most recent fight. She did a good job early on in her debut defending takedowns against a solid grappler in Kay Hansen, only allowing 2 takedowns on 11 attempts.
While her debut ended with low striking volume (31-26), Frey’s recent fight was against a Muay Thai champion in Loma Lookboonmee. It did not go well for Frey, as she was outlanded 80-26 in significant strikes. Both of those women were Atomweights in Invicta prior to joining the UFC, so any disadvantage from fighting up a weight class was nullified. Loma is also just 5’1”, so Frey was actually the taller fighter at 5’3”. The tables will be turned in this next match Frey goes against a 5’5” opponent.
Fight Prediction:
Gloria will have a 2” height advantage and 2” reach advantage and is 10 years younger than Frey.
Gloria looks to be the more powerful fighter, so Frey will need to rely on her additional experience if she wants to get the monkey off her back in the UFC. We don’t see that happening though, and think Gloria will dominate this fight. More of an uncertainty is how the fight ends. Half of Frey’s six career losses have come early, but two of her last three have ended in decisions. Also her last three wins all came in five round decisions, showing that she has no trouble going the distance in fights. Frey seems overly patient at times, willing to stand and stare opposed to pushing the pace. Gloria could certainly end this fight early, but it’s more likely to end in a decision win for her.
It’s hard to see Gloria losing here, so her moneyline at -188 looks like a solid play. We also like her KO line at +700, as well as her R1 KO at +1700 and R3 KO at +3000.
DFS Implications:
Gloria’s DWCS fight didn’t jump off the statsheet, but she looked like a crisp, powerful striker. However, it would not have scored well in DFS, with just 74 DraftKings points and 98 on FanDuel, which gives you an idea of her DFS floor in a win. However, what doesn’t show up in the stats is how good Gloria’s striking looked. She throws combinations of powerful straight strikes with very little wasted effort. She doesn’t look like the type of explosive striker that will rack up enough volume to score well in decisions, but she definitely has the power to knock opponents out. At her price, you likely need a finish in the first two rounds for her to return value. Her R1 win line is set at +650, implying just a 10% chance, while her R2 win line comes in at +850, implying an 8% chance. So the oddsmakers are not overly optimistic about her getting a finish.
Frey has given us no reason to think she can be a useful piece in the DFS puzzle, with DraftKings scores of 11 and 23 in her first two UFC fights. And both of those fights made it well into the third round, with one of them going the distance so she had ample opportunity to score points. She lacks the striking and grappling volume to score well later into fights, so you’re really hoping for a miraculous early finish if you play her. Her ITD checks in dead last on the slate at +850, implying just a 9% chance, which honestly still feels generous. The only argument for playing Frey in DFS is that she’ll be low owned and is going against a less experienced fighter making her UFC debut.
Fight #11
JJ Aldrich
8th UFC Fight (4-3)Coming off a 14 month layoff following a split decision loss to Sabina Mazo, Aldrich has now lost two of her last three fights after she previously got knocked out in R2 by Maycee Barber back in 2019. However, seven of her last eight fights have ended in decisions, and she’s yet to finish an opponent in the UFC. She has decent boxing, and does have a pair of R1 KOs on her record, but those both came prior to joining the UFC against a lower level of competition.
Aldrich started her career at 115 lb, briefly moved up to 125 lb in 2016 for one fight and then moved back down to 115 where she fought her first 4 UFC fights (3-1). Her last three UFC fights have been at 125 lb, where she's gone 1-2. She’s been finished twice in her career, a 2019 R2 KO loss to Maycee Barber and a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss in her second pro fight. Her last eight fights have made it past the first round.
A pure striker, Aldrich is not a grappling threat. She has just two takedowns in seven UFC fights. To her credit, she’s also only been taken down twice in her last six fights, after Juliana Lima took her down four times in her 2016 debut.
Cortney Casey
13th UFC Fight (5-7)Casey had been scheduled to take on Priscila Cachoeira back on Halloween, but Cachoeira withdrew due to a botched weight cut.
Looking to bounce back from a disappointing R3 submission loss to Gillian Robertson back in June, Casey has lost two of her last three and four of her last six fights. This will be her third fight in the 125 lb division, after she moved up from 115 lb following her 2019 loss to Cynthia Calvillo.
Casey has two wins by Armbar Submission in the UFC and one win by KO. She’s 2-6 in her eight UFC decisions. Prior to joining the UFC, Casey was 4-1 with all of her wins coming in the first round (2 KO’s & 2 RNC submissions). Six of her eight career losses have ended in decisions, while the other two finished with submissions. She’s never been knocked out.
Casey has been involved in some brawls of her own in the past. She landed 111 significant strikes on Angela Hill, while absorbing 121, in a 2018 three round match that Casey won. She also landed 103 significant strikes on Jessica Aguilar, while absorbing 57, in a 2017 decision win.
This fight sets up for a standup battle with neither woman known for their ground games. Casey has landed one takedown in her last nine fights and 3 in her entire UFC career.
Casey looked terrible at a bizarre weigh-in before her last right. Looking weak and shaky, she had them bring out the hoop for her, but then came in 2.5 lb under the limit. So it will be important to monitor her on Friday.
UPDATE: Casey once again required the towel to make weight, but overall looked fine this time.
Fight Prediction:
Casey will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 67” reach.
Both of these women have lost two of their last three fights and are likely extra motivated for a win to avoid losing three of their most recent four. Aldrich is purely a striker and has never landed a submission. Casey, on the other hand, has never been knocked out and both of her early losses have come by submission. Casey has just one early win in her last eight fights, which was a 2020 R1 Armbar against Mara Romero Borella, who’s lost three of her last four fights early. We expect this one to remain on the feet and for Aldrich to win by decision.
There’s not much to get excited about here, but “Aldrich Wins by Decision” at +100 looks like a good bet.
DFS Implications:
Aldrich has landed just two takedowns in seven UFC fights, leaving her reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS. With that in mind, she’s yet to get a finish in the UFC and now gets an opponent who’s never been knocked out. In terms of striking, she lands a below average 3.88 significant strikes per minute and has only landed above 58 significant strikes once in her last five fights, which was when she landed a still unimpressive 74 in 2019. Failing in all three DFS scoring categories (grappling, striking, finishing), Aldrich has never scored above 69 DraftKings points in her seven UFC matches, and has given us zero reasons to play her. Her ITD line is tied for the second worst on the slate at +700, implying a 10% chance she gets her first UFC finish here. She only makes sense as a super low-owned, ultra-contrarian gross tournament play for the true sickies.
With three R1 finishes in the UFC, Casey has scored decently in her wins, with DraftKings scores of 95, 84, 87, 108, and 112 in her last 5 victories. Her nine UFC fights to make it past the first round all saw a third round, and eight of those ended in decisions. Priced at just $7,700/$13, a similar performance could keep her in the DFS discussion, but this does not look like a favorable matchup. She notably has just three takedowns in 12 UFC fights and is reliant on striking and finishes to score well. The odds imply she has a 42% chance to win this fight, but just a 12% chance to land a finish. This looks like a tough spot for a good DFS performance if you ask us.
Fight #10
Nasrat Haqparast
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Haqparast had been scheduled to take on Arman Tsarukyan back in January, but was forced to withdraw due to illness. He was then scheduled to face Don Madge on this card, but Madge withdrew at the beginning of fight week due to Visa issues. Now Haqparast gets a UFC newcomer making his debut on short notice in Garcia.
Haqparast is a high-volume power striker who bounced back from getting KO'd by Drew Dober with a decision win in his last fight. After his first three UFC fights all ended in decisions, his lone UFC finish came in a 2019 R2 KO over Joaquim Silva, who had previously never been finished.
All nine of Haqparast’s pre-UFC fights ended early (8-1 only losing his first pro fight). Nine of his 12 career wins have come by KO (6 in R1, 2 in R2 & 1 in R3), while the other three have ended in decisions. Other than getting knocked out by Dober, his only other early loss came by submission in his first pro fight all the way back in 2012. The only other loss of his career came by decision in his 2017 UFC debut.
Haqparast has spent the majority of his pro career in the 155 lb division, but he did move up to 170 lb for a three fight period in 2014 and 2015. He notably went 3-0 at 170 lb.
A pure striker, Haqparast has only landed one takedown in six UFC fights, and hasn’t even attempted one in his last three matches. However, he also has an impressive 81% takedown defense and has only been brought down once in his last five fights, on 12 total attempts. For context, three of those five opponents didn’t attempt a takedown, but Haqparast successfully defended 7 of 8 attempts in his last match against a strong wrestler in Alexander Munoz. Marc Diakiese went 0 for 4 in Haqparast’s second UFC fight and Marcin Held went 3 for 10 in his debut. Haqparast averages the third highest number of significant strikes landed per minute on the slate at 5.63.
UPDATE: Haqparast required the towel to make weight and wasn’t overly impressive physically, but seemed fine other than that. It’s not ideal, but it’s also not a major concern.
Rafa Garcia
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his short notice UFC debut after Madge dropped out at the beginning of the week, Garcia comes in with a perfect 11-0 record on the Mexican regional scene.
Impressively—on paper at least—he has eight finishes. However, those all came against questionable opponents, who entered with records of: 0-0, 0-3, 0-1, 2-0, 4-4 (lost last 4), 8-3 (looked bad), 5-2 (looked bad), 17-12 (lost 5 of last 6). All of his opponents have looked terrible. The nickname of the last opponent Garcia finished is actually “El Terrible”. You can’t make this stuff up.
Garcia started his career at 145 lb, but moved up to 155 lb in 2018, seemingly because he didn’t feel like cutting weight anymore. He has decent striking, but looks pretty hittable. He has averaged a decent number of takedowns, but it remains to be seen how that transitions to the UFC. Overall, we were not impressed with his tape.
Fight Prediction:
Haqparast will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
This looks like a complete mismatch. Haqparast has been going up against some tough opponents lately, but now he gets a step down in competition in a prime spot to shine. He should have the clear striking advantage in this match and with six of his career wins coming by R1 KO, we think this is a great spot for him to land his 7th. Garcia is undefeated on the regional level, but this will be a massive step up in competition, and we’re not convinced he’s ready for it. Give us all the Haqparast is this one.
We like “Haqparast wins by R1 KO” at +400 and think his R2 KO line at +600 is also in play.
DFS Implications:
Haqparast is entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well in DFS and his only takedown in six UFC fights came back in his 2017 debut. He has landed above 100 significant strikes twice, but has only scored above 88 DraftKings points once. That interestingly came in a decision and not his one finish since joining the organization, which only scored 88 points in a low-volume R2 KO. He has scored at least 72 DraftKings points in all four of his wins with totals of 72, 88, 100 and 80. We’ve yet to see Haqparast’s ceiling in the UFC , but this looks like a great spot for it to make an appearance. He should also have the opportunity to defend multiple takedowns in this fight, which with his 81% takedown defense could give him a major boost on FanDuel. His +130 ITD odds imply he has a 37% chance to get a finish here, although as the most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate, he might need a R1 finish or a R2 finish with multiple knockdowns to pay off. His R1 win line is set at +340, implying just a 17% chance. He looks like a better play on FanDuel based on his takedown defense and lack of grappling stats.
Garcia has enjoyed the benefits of being the big fish in a small pond, but now he’ll be swimming with sharks. His eight finishes in 11 pro fights look like a mirage in terms of projecting his future potential, but they do at least show some DFS potential upside. He also averaged a solid number of takedowns in his past fights, which would boost his scores if he can transition that skillset over to the UFC. Unfortunately for him, this sets up as a tough spot for landing takedowns as Haqparast has a career 81% takedown defense. It will be interesting to see how much stock the field puts into Garcia’s 11-0 pro record. The odds imply he has a 23% chance to win the fight and a 14% chance to land a finish.
Fight #9
Rani Yahya
17th UFC Fight (11-4-1, NC)A one-dimensional submission specialist, Yahaya is a second degree black belt in BJJ and also a black belt in Muay Thai. All 20 of his career finishes have come by submission, while his other six pro wins ended in decisions. In 37 pro matches, he’s only been finished three times—twice by KO and once by submission. Those came in a 2006 R1 Guillotine Choke, a 2007 R2 KO and a 2009 R1 KO notably against Joseph Banavidez. No one has finished him since 2009 or since he joined the UFC in 2011. His other seven career losses all ended in decisions. He has six submission wins in the UFC, while 10 of his 17 UFC matches have gone to the judges, including all four of his losses with the organization. His one other UFC match ended in a “No Contest” due a clash of heads 39 seconds in. His last three wins have all been by submission, including two in the first round.
Now 36 years old, Yahya has been a pro for nearly 19 years. Age is really the only concern with him if you’re looking for cracks in his foundation as he’s a three time world BJJ champion and Abu Dhabi gold medalist and offers elite grappling skills and proven durability.
Looking more closely at his finishes, 11 of his last 16 submission wins have come in the first round, four have come in the third round, and just one has come in R2. He likes to get opponents to the mat quickly and hunt for submissions early, but if that fails he tends to patiently wear on the opposition before finishing things late. He’ll get opponents to the ground any way he can, whether that’s by traditional takedowns, pulling guard or grabbing an ankle. Because of that, his takedowns landed are solid, but not overwhelming at 2.9 per 15 minutes. He does attempt a slate-leading 8.9 takedowns per 15 minutes and averages 6.1 missed attempts.
Yahya has never landed more than 59 significant strikes in a fight and has only topped 40 twice. He’s also never absorbed more than 57 significant strikes, which came in his most recent match. He occasionally puts up big takedown numbers, but less so recently. He only has six takedowns in his last six fights and only two in his last three matches. He’s also never landed a knockdown.
Ray Rodriguez
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)While Rodriguez has only spent 39 seconds inside the UFC Octagon in his short lived September UFC debut, his last three losses have actually all come against current UFC fighters. He was submitted in October 2018 by Chris Gutierrez in the first round of an LFA match. Then he got knocked out by Tony Gravely in R3 of his 2019 appearance on DWCS, before getting submitted again in the first round in his recent debut.
Rodriguez will be moving back down to 135 lb after making his debut at 145 lb, which makes sense because it was on extremely short notice. Rodriguez has fought extensively in both weight classes, and is 6-4 in his career at 135 lb and 8-3 at 145 lb.
Four of Rodriguez’s seven career losses have come early, with one KO and three submissions, including a 2020 R1 Guillotine Choke in his UFC debut, a 2018 R1 Rear-Naked Choke (against Chris Gutierrez), and a 2012 R3 Rear-Naked Choke in his third pro fight. He was also nearly submitted in his 2019 DWCS fight before eventually getting knocked out.
Rodriguez has shown upside in his wins, with his last four victories all ending early, including two in R1. Of his total 16 career wins, 11 have come early with three KOs and eight submissions. In yet another match against a current UFC fighter, Rodriguez knocked out Jimmy Flick in the second round of a 2019 fight.
Fight Prediction:
Rodriguez will have a 1” height advantage and 4” reach advantage.
The grappling of Yahya will likely prove to be too much for Rodriguez here, but Yahya is getting up there in age and coming off a pair of decisions with a loss, albeit to Ricky Simon, followed by a decision draw. However, Rodriguez has been underwhelming and looks to be a step down in competition for Yahya. Rodriguez also has a history of getting submitted early in fights, so this looks like a favorable matchup for Yahya to get a finish, who’s last two opponents combined for just one submission loss in 42 total fights. As long as Yahya doesn’t come out looking completely washed, we think he gets another early submission here, likely in the first round.
“Yahya WIns by Submission” at +100 looks solid, as does his R1 submission line at +290. If you want to take a shot at something longer, we prefer his R3 submission line at +750 to his R2 submission line at +550. Remember, 11 of his last 16 submission wins have come in the first round, four have come in the third round, and just one has come in R2.
DFS Implications:
Yahya has been a more impressive finisher than DFS scorer—although if this slate ends up being lower scoring like we think it might, then that may be of less significance. Prior to his recent pair of decisions, which resulted in a loss and draw, Yahya had won 7 of 8 fights since his 2014 “No Contest”. Two of those seven wins ended in decisions, while the other five were all submission victories. His DraftKings scores in the two decisions were just 88 and 70 points, which at his price would go clearly down as a fail in DFS. His five submission wins scored 92, 102, 101, 104, and 93 DraftKings points. So even with a finish he’s far from a lock to put up a big score. Two of his scores to top 100 points came in R3 submissions, while the third was a first round finish. As one of the highest priced fighters on the slate, it’s hard to see a score in the lower 90’s being enough for him to end up in the optimal lineup, even on a lower scoring slate. The reason his finishes don’t always score well is due to the fact that he’s content with getting to the ground by any means necessary, including pulling guard or simply grabbing an ankle—or to put that in DFS terms, techniques that don’t score points. His most recent win was a R1 submission that scored just 92 points, as the only stats he recorded were 4 significant strikes and the submission on his way to a Heel Hook submission. No knockdowns, no takedowns, just straight to the finish. He does have the best chances to land a finish on the slate with a -105 ITD line (47%) and a +240 (21%) R1 win line.
There’s always a chance he gets bailed out by the quick win bonus on DraftKings, but his next finish in the first 60 seconds will be his first in 17 UFC fights. He has come close a few times, but submitting an opponent in under 60 seconds is a tough task, as submissions are generally not an instant transaction. While we say that, ironically Rodriguez was submitted in 39 seconds in his last fight, BUT that was by Guillotine Choke, which doesn’t first require you to get to the ground and advance your position. Yahya notably hasn’t submitted anyone with a Guillotine since 2008. We touched on the fact that he historically has not scored well in decisions, so his ITD line of -105 (47%) represents the absolute maximum that you would want to play him, and because not all of his submissions score well, it makes sense to drop down well below that. He also sets up as one of the chalk favorites, so all the more reason to reduce your exposure in tournaments. However, he does look like one of the few really good cash plays on the slate.
This is a tough spot for Rodriguez to try and rebound from the quick loss in his UFC debut. With Yahya leading the slate on missed takedown attempts, there’s slightly more reason for optimism with Rodriguez on FanDuel compared to DraftKings. However, Rodriguez was taken down three times on five attempts in his DWCS match, so there’s no reason to think he has a great takedown defense. While Yahya has never been finished in the UFC, he is now 36 years old and Rodriguez’s last four wins all came early. At his $7,000 price tag, a finish would almost certainly catapult Rodriguez into the optimal lineup, while even a decision win could be enough. Rodriguez’s +240 moneyline implies she has a 28% chance to win this fight, while his +475 ITD line implies a 16% chance he finishes Yahya early. Rodriguez’s six point performance in his lone UFC fight is unlikely to attract many suitors, and with Yahya projected to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate, Rodriguez definitely makes sense as a low-owned leverage play.
Fight #8
Charles Jourdain
5th UFC Fight (1-2-1)After fighting to a split decision loss against Andre Fili last June, Jourdain fought to a split decision draw in October. He looked like he was really forcing the issue with bonus hunting early on, as he went for a flying knee to start the fight and attempted another one just 30 seconds later. Neither attempt was close to landing and the second one resulted in him getting tied up for a couple of minutes. A minute later he threw another risky strike with a spinning backfist that ended up with him getting dropped with a stiff right hook. He was able to recover and stand up, but right into a Guillotine attempt. Again he recovered and nearly landed a submission of his own, but instead finished the round behind and with what appeared to be a broken nose. He calmed down in the second round and seemingly evened the score. Then Jourdain stumbled Culiabao early in the third round, before nearly submitting him late. After a terrible start to the fight he appeared to have done enough to win a decision.
However, the judges’ scores might as well have been numbers pulled out of a hat with scores of 27-30 Jourdain, 29-28 Culiabao and 28-28, resulting in a split decision draw. We see a lot of bad judging, but it doesn’t get much worse than that. One judge gave all three rounds to Jourdain—clearly wrong. Another judge awarded Jourdain with a 10-8 third round after saying he lost the first two—um what? And the third judge said Culiabao won the first two rounds, which still appeared wrong, but is the most understandable. It seemed like a straightforward 29-28 win for Jourdain, but no judge saw it that way. Jourdain has now been to two straight split decisions with head-scratching scorekeeping in each, so you almost have to wonder if that’s something we need to consider moving forward or if those were just two flukey results.
After looking undersized in a UFC debut loss where he agreed to fight up a weight class at 155 lb, Jourdain moved back down to 145 lb in his second UFC fight and looked right at home. He landed an impressive R2 KO on Doo Ho Choi for his first and only UFC finish.
Jourdain then went up against a tough Andre Fili. He came dangerously close to finishing Fili in the first round, but failed to capitalize on a knockdown. Fili bounced back in the second and third rounds taking advantage of Jourdain’s poor takedown defense.
All 10 of Jourdain’s career wins have come early (three in R1 & four in R2), with seven KOs and three submissions. All three of his losses have ended in decisions.
Marcelo Rojo
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut after an extended layoff, Rojo will also be moving up a wightclass from 135 lb, where he’s fought his last eight fights, to 145 lb. Rojo did fight at 145 lb earlier in his career, but went 2-3 and then dropped down to 135 lb. One of those wins for Marcelo “Pitbull” Rojo notably came from an "illegal bite". The three losses were a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke, a 2014 R2 Keylock Submission and a 2012 decision.
Rojo’s last four losses have all come by submission, including a 2019 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke to John Castaneda in his second most recent fight. Prior to that, Rojo was submitted in R3 again, this time in 2017 via Guillotine Choke. He also got choked out in 2015 in the first round by a Rear-Naked Choke and tapped via Keylock Submission in the second round back in 2014. The only other two losses of his career both came by decision in his 2nd and 3rd pro fights back in 2012.
Impressively, 15 of his 16 pro wins have come early, with eight KOs and six submissions (and one DQ). His lone decision win was back in 2012 and none of his last 17 fights have required the judges. His last six wins have all come in the first round, with five KOs and one submission. His two most dangerous weapons appear to be a big looping right hand that he likes to throw over the top and knees out of the Thai clinch.
While Rojo has never been knocked out, he got dropped less than two minutes into his second most recent win and appeared to be in danger. However, he was able to recover and ended up getting a R1 KO of his own shortly after.
He notably missed weight by 3.25 lb in his last fight, however that was at 135 lb so maybe that’s less of a concern moving up a weight class. Either way, coming off an extended layoff it will be important to see how he looks at weigh-ins. Update: Rojo made weight just fine.
Fight Prediction:
Jourdain will have a 1” height advantage and is seven years younger than Rojo.
Jourdain has been to four decisions in his career and has yet to win one, while Rojo hasn’t needed the judges since 2012. Rojo looks far more vulnerable on the ground than the feet, but Jourdain is less likely to capitalize on that. He did notably have three submission attempts in his last fight, but has yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC. We should see some exciting striking in this fight and the oddsmakers think we more likely than not get a finish. At 1-2-1 in the UFC, Jourdain has to be desperate for a win. So while he appeared to come out bonus hunting in his last match, a more calculated approach would make sense in this must-win spot. We like Jourdain’s chances to get a finish here and break out of his slump.
We like Jourdain ITD at +125, as well as his +750 submission line, his +380 R1 Win line and his +800 R2 KO line. On the other side of things, Rojo’s +1600 R1 KO line seems like the best option.
DFS Implications:
Jourdain has yet to attempt a takedown in his four UFC fights, but did notably defend all seven of his opponent’s attempts in his last match, after getting taken down 9 times on 10 attempts in his first three UFC fights. Jourdain has also failed to land above 64 significant strikes in a UFC fight, despite going to three decisions. Without the ability to score from takedowns, and lacking the striking volume to prop up his scores, Jourdain appears to be entirely reliant on finishes to score well. With the help of two knockdowns, he did put up 118 DraftKings points in his lone UFC finish, which came late in the second round of a 2019 match. At his price, a third round finish is less likely to score enough to be useful, so you’re really banking on a win in the first two rounds if you play him. His R1 win line checks in at +333, implying a 17% chance, while his R2 win line is +525, implying a 12% likelihood. For the record, his ITD is the third highest on the slate at +130 (40%).
You can’t ignore Rojo’s finishing ability, but we’ve yet to see how it translates to the UFC. On a slate lacking upside, we expect him to be decently popular for a big underdog making his UFC debut. At his cheap price tag, a win of any kind has the potential to propel him into winning lineups, but a finish would almost guarantee it. His +210 moneyline implies he has a 31% chance to win the fight, while his +400 ITD line implies a 19% chance to be the first person to ever finish Jourdain.
Fight #7
Angela Hill
14th UFC Fight (7-9)Coming off her second straight split decision loss and third in her last nine fights, the judges have not been kind to Hill. Twelve of her 16 UFC fights have gone the distance, with the four exceptions being a 2015 R1 Rear-Naked Choke Submission loss, a 2019 R1 Armbar Submission loss, a 2019 R3 KO win and a 2020 R2 KO win.
Hill originally joined the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter in just her second pro fight. However, after winning a decision in her 2014 debut she lost back-to-back fights against Tecia Torres in a decision and Rose Namajunas by R1 submission. Hill was then released by the UFC following her 2015 submission loss and went on to win four fights in a row in Invicta, including a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds. She was then re-signed by the UFC in 2017, where she fought to five straight decisions upon her return, alternating losses and wins. Hill then suffered what is just her second early loss in her career with another R1 submission, this time an Armbar against Randa Markos.
Since that 2019 submission loss, Hill has gone 4-3 with two KO wins (R2 & R3) and five fights that ended in decisions. After losing back-to-back split decisions, you would have to think that Hill will be motivated to try and either finish things early or not make it close by the end. She’s now 36 years old and really can’t afford to go on a three fight losing streak.
Now 12-9 as a pro, five of her 12 wins have come by KO, while seven have been by decision. Only one of her five KO victories came in the first round and that was back in 2016 in Invicta. Three of her knockouts have come in R2. On the other side of things, she’s never been knocked out, but she has been submitted twice.
Ashley Yoder
9th UFC Fight (3-5)Yoder has been a decision machine in the UFC with all eight of her fights going to the judges. Prior to joining the organization she did have four Armbar submissions wins, including three in the first round, but all four of those wins came in her first six pro fights. Her opponents in those fights entered with records of 0-2, 1-3, 0-0 and 6-2. Yoder is 8-6 as a pro and has never been finished.
Upon entering the UFC in 2016, Yoder proceeded to lose her first three fights—including a 2017 decision to Angela Hill. In that fight, Hill outlanded Yoder 47-26 in significant strikes and tacked on one takedown en route to a low scoring decision. Yoder went 3 for 6 on takedowns.
Following the string of losses, Yoder kept her UFC hopes alive by winning her next two fights, but has since dropped two of her last three. Similar to Hill, Yoder has drawn the short end of the stick on the majority of her split decisions, only winning one of the three. Yoder is primarily a wrestler and doesn’t offer much in the striking department. The only way she’s been able to finish fights in the past has been through Armbar submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Yoder will have a notable 4” height advantage and 5” reach advantage.
This sets up for another low-volume decision, similar to how their previous matchup played out. There’s a decent chance Yoder can get Hill to the mat at some point, with a very slight chance she finishes things with a submission. The real question will be whether or not she can control Hill on the ground for extended periods of time, which is likely what it would take to pull off the upset and win a decision. As long as things stay standing up, Hill should have the noticeable advantage on the feet. Also, Hill’s a smart fighter and will stand up out of top position on the ground if she feels a submission threat is imminent. She has no desire to keep the fight on the ground. We like Hill to win a low-volume decision here.
As we mentioned, Hill very likely wins a decision here, but if that doesn’t happen there are a few lines we’re looking at. The safe bet is obviously betting the fight goes the distance at -290, or Hill wins a decision at -155. However, Hill’s R2 KO line at +1900 is interesting based on the fact that three of her five knockouts have come in the second round and she tends to wear on her opponents opposed to knocking them out with a single strike. On Yoder’s side, we see value in her submission line at +950, her decision line at +500, and her moneyline at +320.
DFS Implications:
Hill throws a decent amount of striking volume, but has never landed more than one takedown in her 16 UFC fights. At $9,400, volume alone isn’t enough for her to return value in a decision, so she’ll likely need a knockout in the first two rounds to be useful in DFS. Her overall ITD line is set at +450, implying just a 15% for a finish, while her R1 win line comes in at +800, implying just an 8% chance and her R2 line is set at +1000, implying just a 6% chance. The first time these two fought, Hill won a low-volume decision and scored just 63 DraftKings points. Really the only reasons to consider playing Hill in DFS is that she’s the second biggest favorite on the slate and will be low owned.
Yoder has only scored above 65 DraftKings points twice in her eight UFC fights. The first time was in her 2019 decision win over Syuri Kondo where she landed 75 significant strikes and a takedown—but more importantly racked up a dominating 13 minutes of control time on her way to a career best 103 point performance. The second time was when she scored 90 DraftKings points in her most recent decision. She’s a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system as she amassed eight minutes of control time and 151 total strikes, but just 26 significant in her last fight. Hill has a solid 77% takedown defense and this looks like a tough matchup for Yoder to put up a ceiling performance. The odds imply Yoder has just a 25% chance to win this fight and a 10% chance to get a finish. She did sneak into the optimal DraftKings lineup the last time she fought, but it was on a nine fight card and only two other underdogs on the slate won their fights, with one of them scoring even less than Yoder. In a tougher spot and on a larger card, with what appears to be several live dogs to choose from, it’s less likely an average scoring decision win would be enough for Yoder to be useful in DFS. She’ll either need a dominating wrestling performance, which seems unlikely, or an early finish to return value on this slate.
Fight #6
Darren Stewart
12th UFC Fight (5-6, NC )Stewart started his UFC career off in less than ideal fashion with a “No Contest” due to an accidental clash of heads in R1, before losing three straight, including two submission losses. He was able to right the ship somewhat, landing R2 KOs in each of his next two fights, however, he then lost a decision against Shahbazyan. He bounced back with a pair of decision wins in 2019.
When the UFC was temporarily shut down in the Spring pf 2020 due to COVID, Stewart opted to fight on Cage Warriors, and lost in a smothering decision against Bartosz Fabinski. He then returned to the UFC with a R1 submission win over Maki Pitolo. This was notably Stewart’s first career submission win and the first fight in his last five not to end in a decision.
However, he returned to form shortly after and lost a decision to Kevin Holland. Five of Stewart’s last six fights have now ended in decisions. While he’s a powerful striker with two-thirds of his career finishes coming early, Stewart has mostly struggled to land finishes lately, and now gets an opponent who’s only ever been finished once.
Eryk Anders
11th UFC Fight (5-5)Anders had been scheduled to face Antonio Arroyo back on November 14th but Anders was forced to withdraw following weigh-ins due to weight cutting issues. His last fight that actually happened was a decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko back in May, which marked his 5th straight fight without landing a takedown—after landing 12 in his first five UFC fights.
While 9 of his 13 career wins have come early (8 KO's & 1 Submission), six of those came in his first seven fights, against mostly a lower level of competition. Not really a submission threat, Anders lone submission win came in a 2016 R1 Rear-Naked Choke.
Fighting at both 185 lb and 205 lb in the UFC, Anders has gone 1-2 at Light Heavyweight (205 lb), while going 4-3 at Middleweight (185 lb), where this fight will be. He has one UFC knockout win at 205 lb and two at 185 lb. On the flip side, four of his five UFC losses have come by decision and the only person to knock him out in his entire pro career was Thiago Santos in R3 of their 2018 match. Anders has never been submitted in 18 pro fights.
Since landing a R1 KO in his 2017 UFC debut, eight of Ander’s last nine fights have made it to the third round. The one exception was a match against human punching bag, Vinicius Moreira, who’s been finished in the first six minutes of all four of his UFC fights, and is probably one of the worst UFC fighters ever allowed into the organization.
Fight Prediction:
Anders will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This sets up as a great time to grab a beer or get some food during the card, because we don’t expect this fight to end early. Anders has been incredibly unimpressive, but has only been finished once in his career, which came at the hands of Thiago Santos—back when he was still good. The other four of his last five fights have all ended in decisions. Stewart is similarly tough to put away, and has never been knocked out. He has been submitted twice, but Anders is hardly a submission threat, with his lone submission win coming in his fourth pro fight back in 2016. Five of Stewart’s last six fights have also ended in decisions. We like Stewart to win a decision here.
The only two bets we’re really looking at are “Stewart Wins by Decision” at +145 and the fight goes the distance at -156. But if you did want to take a hope and prayer shot at something longer, check out Stewart’s R2 KO line at +1600 or his R3 KO line at +2000.
DFS Implications:
Here are Stewart’s DraftKings scores in his five UFC wins: 96, 63, 47, 92, 94. While he does occasionally land a finish (the three highest scores), he’s yet to really score well when he does. His low striking volume and high price tag essentially leave him reliant on a first round knockout to score well. His last R1 KO came in 2016, prior to joining the UFC. Now he gets an opponent who’s only been finished once in his career, so this certainly doesn’t set up for an explosion spot. The only two arguments that can be made for playing Stewart in DFS are that he will be a low owned favorite and eight of his 12 pro wins have come early. He’ll need a finish to pay off, and as he’s shown, he generally doesn’t score well even when he gets one. But for what it’s worth, his ITD line is set at +300, implying a 22% chance. His R1 win line comes in at just +575 (11%).
Beginning with his most recent fight, Anders has gone 0/5, 0/0, 0/0, 0/1, and 0/1 on takedowns in his last five fights. When you combine that with his low striking volume and the fact that four of his last five fights have ended in decisions, he makes for a lackluster R1 KO or bust DFS play in terms of putting up a big score. It doesn’t help that he’s lost four of his last six fights either. The one bright spot for Anders is that two of his last three wins have come by KO, but one of those was a 2018 R3 win that still wasn’t enough to be useful in DFS. Anders has struggled to score well in DFS outside of his two R1 wins. His last five wins have scored DraftKings totals of 56, 105, 85, 91 and 116. Now at his price, the 85 and 91 point totals still have the potential to be useful, but it just depends on what the fighters around him do. Anders’ ITD line is +450 (16%), while his R1 win line is just +900 (7%).
Fight #5
Manel Kape
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Coming off a disappointing UFC debut where he failed to really do much over the course of 15 minutes, Kape will now fight for the second time in five weeks after taking 13 months off between his last two fights. In his recent debut, Kape looked more concerned with avoiding being taken down than actually landing much offense of his own. In fairness, he was going against an extremely dangerous submission threat and striker in Alexandre Pantoja, and it was Kape’s long awaited UFC debut, so maybe he was just a little tight and had to shake off the Octagon jitters. He did notably shoot for seven takedowns in his debut, but he only landed two.
Kape appeared to disagree with the unanimous decision loss, which is silly to anyone that watched the fight as Pantoja outlanded him 74-49 in significant strikes and controlled the center of the Octagon for the entire match. However, if Kape legitimately thought he was winning or even just not behind, then it helps to explain why he didn’t push the action more late. His unawareness of how the fight was going also speaks to his inexperience, so it should be something he can learn from.
Prior to his recent debut, Kape had three straight second round knockout wins in Rizin, where he won the Rizin Bantamweight Belt in the last of those. His last nine fights before joining the UFC were all in Rizin, with him winning six of those—all with early finishes (5 KOs & 1 Submission). His opponents definitely were not overly impressive however. His last three Rizin wins came against Seiichiro Ito, who’s lost his last three fights, former UFC fighter Takeya Mizugaki, who’s lost five of his last seven, and Kai Asakura, who’s lost two of his last four.
Impressively, 14 of his 15 career wins have come early, with nine KOs and five submissions. He’s never been knocked out, but he has been submitted in two of his five pro losses—a 2014 R3 Rear-Naked Choke and a 2017 R3 Arm-Triangle Choke. Kape is a quick striker who can throw flurries of punches, but his ground game looks highly suspect. Not short of confidence, Kape is definitely one to showboat, as he would often put his hands behind his back in RIzin, trying to taunt his opponents.
He’s fought anywhere between 125 lb and 135 lb in the past, but more so at 135 lb. His last two fights before joining the UFC were both at 134.5 lb (61 kg). However, both of his UFC fights have been at 125 lb and that appears to be where he plans on staying.
After taking on the #5 ranked Flyweight in the world in his debut, now Kape gets a UFC retread in his second UFC match. However, Kape is notably stepping into this fight as a late replacement on just 10 days notice.
Matheus Nicolau
5th UFC Fight (3-1)After originally joining the UFC at only 22 years old in 2015, Nicolau fought just four times from 2015-2018 before getting released by the organization with a 3-1 record in 2019 following his first UFC loss in a 2018 R1 KO. A large part of why Nicolau fought just four times in his first stint with the UFC is that he tested positive for PEDs in October 2016 and was suspended for a year.
Following his release, Nicolau won his next fight by R1 submission in May 2019 and then followed it up with a decision victory in August 2019. It’s now been 19 months since Nicolau fought, as his last three scheduled fights were all canceled. He had been booked to make another appearance outside of the UFC in March 2020, but the event was canceled due to COVID. Then the UFC re-signed him and set him up to fight Tagir Ulanbekov this past January, but Ulanbekov withdrew. The fight was rescheduled for this Saturday, but Ulanbekov withdrew a second time and Kape stepped in on short notice.
A BJJ black belt, Nicolau has impressively won 8 of his last 9 fights and has two just losses and a draw in his 18 fight career. Both of those losses did notably come by R1 KO. Of his 15 career wins, he has four KOs and five submissions. Three of his six career decisions have come in his last five fights.
Looking specifically at his four UFC matches to date, three of those made it to the third round, with the one exception being the R1 KO loss. He amazingly landed three knockdowns in the first round against Louis Smolka and also landed three takedowns in that fights. That was similar to his UFC debut, where he landed a pair of knockdowns and three takedowns. Nicolau has yet to be taken down in the UFC, but there have only been three attempts against him.
Nicolau’s last two fights have been at 135 lb after his last three UFC matches were all fought at 125 lb. Now dropping back down to 125 lb and coming off an extended layoff, it will be important to see how he looks at weigh-ins. Update: He seemed fine and made weight with no trouble.
Fight Prediction:
Nicolau will have a 1” height advantage but Kape will have a 2” reach advantage.
After coming out conservative in his debut and suffering a decision loss, it would make sense for Kape to look to be more aggressive in this spot. Nicolau looked decent in his first stint in the UFC, but it’s been two and a half years since he last stepped inside the Octagon and 19 months since he last fought, so that makes him tougher to gauge. The three potential outcomes we foresee are a Kape KO win, a Nicolau submission win or for the fight to end in a close decision. Neither fighter has been taken down yet in the UFC, so it’s certainly possible we see this remain on the feet and play out as a striking battle. We expect Kape to push the pace more than he did in his debut, but it’s hard to predict to what extent. The line has moved in Kape’s favor and the odds suggest a 51% chance this fight ends early. The odds more or less reflect our confidence level in each fighter, and we think a Kape KO win is the most likely outcome.
If this fight ends early, it will most likely be from a Kape KO or Nicolau submission. Five of Kape’s career KOs have come in the first round, but his last three all occurred in R2. Both of Nicolau’s career losses were by R1 KO. So “Kape Wins by R1 KO” at +500 and “Kape Wins by R2 KO” at +850 are our favorite lines on his side. On the other side of things, Kape has never been knocked out, but appears vulnerable on the ground, and both of his early losses were by submission, each time in the third round. So Nicolau’s submission line at +500 is interesting, as is his R3 submission line at +2300 and R1 submission line at +1100. This isn’t a fight where we’re extremely confident in any specific outcome, so it’s best to tread lightly as it’s also possible this ends in a decision.
DFS Implications:
Based on his price and the volume he displayed in his debut, Kape will likely need a finish here to be useful in DFS. With that said, 14 of his 15 career wins have come early so that’s not exactly a stretch. Both of Nicolau’s career losses have come by R1 KO and now he’s coming off an extended layoff. Looking to prove he belongs in the UFC, we think Kape turns it up a gear here and pushes harder for a finish. His 31 point DraftKings performance in his debut will likely keep his ownership somewhat in check, but his +185 ITD line suggests he has a 30% chance to finish this fight early. It’s also encouraging that he attempted seven takedowns in his debut, although he only landed two of those. As debuts go, facing Alexandre Pantoja couldn’t have been a much tougher matchup. Kape looks like a solid play on this slate for tournaments in a good buy-low spot.
Nicolau has solid boxing skills, but doesn’t throw enough volume to score well from striking alone. He’s been a bipolar scorer so far in the UFC, with two DraftKings scores of 117 or more and two of 50 or less. His big scores have been propped up by an unsustainable number of knockdowns along with a handful of takedowns. He scored 117 points in his UFC debut, which he finished in the third round with a Japanese Necktie submission. He landed two knockdowns and three takedowns, but just 46 significant strikes. He also tacked on over six minutes of control time and 81 total strikes to further boost his DraftKings score. He followed that up by showing his winning floor in a 50 point decision win. Following the far less impressive performance he was suspended for a year for a failed drug test.
Upon his return he put on an even more impressive performance than his debut, despite the fight ending in a decision win over Louis Smolka. This time he landed three knockdowns—all in the first round—three takedowns, 87 significant strikes, two submission attempts and over four minutes of control time. That was good for 122 DraftKings points and 139 points on FanDuel. However, the UFC was apparently looking for any reason to part ways with Nicolau, and cut him after he got knocked out in the first round of his next match—despite owning a 3-1 record. Now three plus years removed from his last UFC win, it’s tougher to know which Nicolau we’ll get in this match. He did win his two fights since leaving the UFC including a R1 submission in one, but he also hasn’t fought in 19 months. The odds suggest he has a 44% chance to win the fight and a 21% chance to land a finish. He’s shown both a low floor and a high ceiling in decisions, and has been reliant on knockdowns and takedowns to score well. If this fight plays out entirely on the feet and ends in a decision, there’s no chance he matches the stat-stuffing performance he dropped on Louis Smolka. While he’s shown the ability to break slates, just remember he also has a scary low floor.
Fight #4
Jonathan Martinez
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Moving back down to 135 lb after fighting at 145 lb in his last fight, Martinez had fought his entire career in the 135 lb division up until his last match. However, in his last 135 lb fight he missed weight badly, tipping the scales at 140.5 lb, so that will be something to keep an eye on during weigh-ins.
Martinez has never been finished as a pro and 4 of his 6 UFC fights have ended in decisions. All six of those fights made it to the third round, with his two finishes both coming by R3 KO. A late finisher, six of his seven career KO wins have come in the second round or later—three have come in the third round, two have come in the second and one has come in the fifth. He only has one first round KO victory on his record and that came in his second pro fight. He also has two career submission wins with a pair of R1 Armbars in his last two matches before joining the UFC.
In his recent R3 KO against Frankie Saenz, Martinez showed up overweight at 4.5 lb over the limit. Saenz was reportedly incensed and there was even brief talk about whether or not the fight would go on. After negotiating the penalty/pay structure, the fight did proceed and ended with what appeared to be a much larger Martinez bullying the smaller Saenz for two rounds before putting him away early in the third. It’s possible that it was due to the size or age difference but Martinez looked more powerful than he had in past fights.
Martinez came into the UFC with a 9-1 record with his only loss coming from a DQ for an illegal knee against Matt Schnell. It’s worth noting that five of Martinez’s seven KO wins came in his first five pro fights. In fairness to him, all of those opponents had at least four pro fights of experience unlike most of the fighters we see. Martinez is dangerous with his legs and likes to throw flying knees with KO potential.
UPDATE: Martinez was extremely slow to weigh in, but did eventually make weight.
Davey Grant
7th UFC Fight (3-3)Coming off his first early win in six UFC fights, Grant knocked out a struggling Martin Day in the third round. That marks the first time that Grant has put together back-to-back wins since joining the organization in 2013.
Grant made his way into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter back in 2013, but after getting submitted via Rear-Naked Choke in the second round of his 2013 debut, we didn’t see him step back inside the Octagon for two and a half years. Upon his return in 2016 he impressively defeated Marlon Vera in a decision, before getting submitted again in his next match with a R3 Armbar. Following his second submission loss in October 2016, he again took an extended time away from the organization until finally returning in July 2018. Following that 21 month layoff he was submitted for a third time, with this one coming just 59 seconds into the match via Triangle Choke. And again Grant took a year and a half off before returning to action. He finally appeared to right the ship, winning a November 2019 decision in his return. Eight months later is when we last saw him, when he notched his first UFC finish in the win over Day. Now it’s been another eight months since we last saw Grant.
All four of Grant’s pro losses have come by submission, including three in the UFC. Two of those submissions were by Armbar, one by Rear-Naked Choke and one by Triangle Choke. Both of Martinez’s career submission wins notably were by Armbar.
Grant averages a decent number of takedowns landed at 2.6 per 15 minutes and he’s notably gone 8 for 13 over his last two fights. While Martinez was taken down three times in each of his first two UFC fights, he’s only been taken down once in his last four matches on nine attempts. If Grant does get Martinez down, it will be interesting to see if Martinez looks for submissions off his back given that he has two Armbar wins and Grant has two Armbar losses.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Martinez will have a 1” reach advantage. Martinez is notably nine years younger than Grant.
Martinez looks like the superior striker and the more durable of the two fighters. Grant appears reliant on a finish to win this fight, and Martinez has never been finished. We like Martinez to win this fight, it’s just a question of how. The oddsmakers have set the decision line on the match at -150, implying a 57% chance it goes to the judges. That seems fair based on the track record of each of these guys, but we think Martinez has a chance to win with a submission if Grant gets the fight to the mat, or with a late KO if it stays standing up. Martinez likes to throw dangerous knees up the middle, which is his best weapon for knocking out opponents. With that said, it’s still more likely he wins a decision here.
This fight most likely ends in a decision win for Martinez which can be had at +125, but that doesn’t look like a great value. There's also a decent chance Martinez gets a finish. All four of Grant’s career losses have come by submission. While Martinez is more of a striker, he does have two R1 submission wins on his record. So Martinez’s submission line at +700 and R1 submission line at +1500 are in play. We mentioned Martinez is more of a late finisher so we also like his R2 Win line at +750 and R3 Win line at +1000, as well as his R2 KO line at +1100 and R3 KO line at+1500.
DFS Implications:
Martinez has scored above 75 DraftKings points just once in his six UFC fights, which was when he dropped 115 with a R3 KO that included three knockdowns in his second most recent fight. Had he landed just one knockdown in that fight, it wouldn't have been a very impressive score and relying on multiple knockdowns is never a good bet. He has just three takedowns in his six UFC fights, and is reliant on finishes to score well. He’s never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a fight so he can’t get there on striking volume alone. Martinez likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to put up a decent score, and as the second highest priced fighter on DraftKings, even then he’s not a lock to make the optimal. His R1 win line is just +450, implying a 13% chance. Both of his UFC finishes have come in the third round and his only R1 wins since his second fight back in 2014 were a pair of Armbars in 2016 and 2017. This looks like a tough spot for Martinez to return value at his price, but a finish is certainly possible.
Similar to Martinez, Grant has never landed more than 74 significant strikes in a UFC fight, but scored decently on DraftKings in his three UFC wins with scores of 101, 89 and 92. He scored a career high 101 points in his last match, when he landed his first finish in the UFC with a R3 KO. He also landed his first knockdown and a career high 74 significant strikes in that match. His previous two wins both ended in decisions, but he was able to keep his DK scores alive with large amounts of control time and takedowns. Martinez has been a tough guy to get down recently successfully defending 8 of the last 9 attempts against him. Grant’s takedown accuracy is notably just 47%. The only way Grant scores well is either with a finish or a dominating wrestling performance. We mentioned Martinez has been tough to takedown, but he’s also never been finished, so this looks like a tough spot for Grant. His ITD line is tied with JJ Aldrich for the second worst on the slate at +700 (12%) and his R1 win line is even worse than Aldrich’s at just +1400 (5%). It’s hard to find reasons to play Grant here, especially coming off a career performance that will likely bump his ownership up some.
Fight #3
Dan Ige
9th UFC Fight (6-2)Coming off the first five round fight of his career in a loss to Calvin Kattar last July, Ige had won his previous six UFC matches after losing his 2018 UFC debut in a decision. Six of his eight UFC fights have ended in decisions, with the first exception being a 2018 R1 50 second KO win in his second UFC fight against Mike Santiago, who’s lost five of his last six fights—four early—and is no longer in the UFC. Ige’s only other UFC fight not to end with the judges was a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission win over Danny Henry, who’s been submitted in the first round in each of his last two matches.
Nine of Ige’s 14 career wins have come early, but seven of those came prior to joining the UFC. Three of those nine came by KO and five were by submission. He’s never been finished as a pro, and all three of his losses have ended in decisions. He’s a solid all around fighter and his toughness is unquestioned, but he fails to really stand out as exceptional in anything specific.
Gavin Tucker
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Tucker is coming off an impressive career performance where he looked great against Billy Quarantillo who he defeated in a decision. Tucker landed a massive seven takedowns, which equalled the total of his previous four fights combined. He also landed 106 significant strikes, besting his previous high of 87.
A BJJ black belt, Tucker joined the UFC back in 2017, but has just five UFC fights to his name after only fighting once in 2019 and not at all in 2018. All five of his UFC fights have made it to the 3rd round, with his first two ending in decisions (1-1). He then landed back-to-back third round submission wins by Rear-Naked Choke, before winning another decision most recently.
In his 13 pro fights, his only career loss came by decision in his second UFC fight against Rick Glenn. The ref was widely criticized for not stopping the fight and allowing it to last the full 15 minutes, as Tucker took a vicious beating. He ended up getting outlanded 142-23 in significant strikes and left the fight with a broken face. He was also taken down four times and knocked down once in the heavily lopsided match. The brutal beating could be part of the reason why Tucker didn’t fight again for nearly two years. Eight of his nine wins prior to joining the UFC ended early—with four KO’s and four submissions.
Fight Prediction:
Ige will have a 1” height advantage and 5” reach advantage. He’s also five years younger than the 34-year-old Tucker.
Neither one of these fighters have ever been finished in their careers. Three of Tucker’s five UFC fights have ended in decisions, while four of Ige’s six UFC matches have also gone to the judges. It’s hard to see either guy finishing this fight and it feels destined to end in a decision. The odds suggest Ige has a 58% chance to win, which seems fair, giving Tucker a solid chance to pull off the upset. We think this one’s pretty much a coin flip, which means we’ll take the underdog in Tucker if we can get odds.
The safest bet here is that the fight goes the distance at -210. We think the fight is close to a pick ‘em so Tucker‘s decision line at +210 looks like solid value.
DFS Implications:
Ige is just sort of a tough grinder, and none of his stats really jump off the screen. His 3.96 SSL/min and 1.7 TDL/min are both just a hair above average on this slate, but he hasn’t landed more than a single takedown in a fight in his last five matches. He’s also never landed more than 79 significant strikes in a three round match and even in his recent five round match he only landed 84. He also doesn’t absorb a ton of significant strikes, with no one landing more than 80 on him in a three fight fight. Kattar did land 105 in their recent five round match, but that’s still just 4.2 SSL/min. Ige has put up big scores in his two first round finishes, with DraftKings totals of 132 and 110, but has failed to score well in decisions (75, 58, 85 & 91). Overall, he lacks the striking and grappling numbers to score well without a finish. His ITD check in at +375 (18%), while his R1 win line is just +800 (8%).
Tucker has scored 120, 93 and 103 DraftKings points in his last three fights, with even more impressive FanDuel scores of 135, 131 and 112. He’s done a better job of defending takedowns in his last two matches, stopping all four of the attempts against him. Ige notably went 1 for 13 on takedowns in his 2018 UFC debut and 0 for 9 in his last fight (5 rounds), adding to Tucker’s FanDuel allure. Tucker looks like a solid underdog play on both DFS sites based on his price, but is definitely more interesting on FanDuel where he can score from takedowns defended.
Fight #2
Misha Cirkunov
10th UFC Fight (6-3)This fight had been scheduled for December 19th, but Misha withdrew due to injury and it was rescheduled for Saturday.
Now 34 years old and looking to bounce back from a torn bicep that kept him out all of 2020, Cirkunov is coming off an extended 18 month layoff following an impressive first round submission win over a really tough Jimmy Crute, which is the only time Crute has lost in his 13 pro fights. A BJJ blackbelt with a background in Judo, Greco-Roman wrestling and freestyle wrestling, Cirkunov is a dangerous grappler with nine of his 15 career wins coming by submission, including seven in R1. He’s unexceptional on the feet, but he does have four career wins by KO. However, 3 of those 4 came prior to joining the UFC, including two in his first four pro fights back in 2010 and 2011. His fourth was in his 2015 UFC debut against Daniel Jolly, who’s amazingly been knocked out in the first round in 5 of his last 6 fights. Cirkunov’s last 5 wins have all come by submission.
With his last 14 fights ending early, including his last six in R1, Cirkunov has only been two two decisions and it’s been nearly a decade since his last one. Of his 20 career fights, 18 have ended early, including 13 of his 15 pro wins and all five of his losses. All three of his UFC losses have notably ended with him getting knocked out in the first round. Prior to joining the UFC, both of his losses were by submission.
After knocking out Jolly in his 2015 UFC debut, Cirkunov rattled off three straight submission wins with notable wins over Ion Cutelaba and Nikita Krylov. However, since starting off 4-0 with the organization Cirkunov has been knocked out in three of his last five fights at the hands of legit competition in Volkan Oezdemir, Glover Teixeira and Johnny Walker. He has bounced back from the pair of 2017 R1 losses, with R1 submission wins in two of his last three fights however. He finished an old Patrick Cummins with an Arm-Triangle Choke in 2018, before his impressive finish of Jimmy Crute with a strange looking Peruvian Necktie in 2019.
There’s legitimate reason for concern with Cirkunov’s chin and toughness. In his UFC loss back in 2017, Cirkunov went down concerningly easily from a single Oezdemir punch just 28 seconds into the fight. Then in his next fight, Glover got him to the ground, took his back and then transitioned to a mount after Cirkunov escaped the Rear-Naked Choke. Once mounted, Cirkunov essentially conceded, just covering up and not even fighting back. In his most recent loss, he got knocked out in 38 seconds by a flying knee against Johnny Walker. Overall, he doesn’t seem great at handling adversity, although he showed some level of resiliency against Jimmy Crute in his last match, as they briefly went back and forth before Cirkunov eventually found the submission.
Ryan Spann
6th UFC Fight (4-1)Coming off a chaotic couple minutes against Johnny Walker, Spann landed two knockdowns and a pair of takedowns in under three minutes before getting elbowed and smashed in the side/back of the head as he shot for one last ill-fated takedown, which resulted in the fight getting stopped. Walker looked to be in real trouble after Spann dropped him with a left hook, but he was able to recover and somehow still win the fight just moments later. That loss snapped an eight fight winning streak, which spanned back to to 2017 following a loss to Karl Roberson on DWCS. Six of those eight wins had come early, including five in R1.
After getting knocked out in 15 seconds in his first appearance on DWCS back in 2017, Spann joined the LFA and finished three straight opponents in the first round, two by KO and one by Rear-Naked Choke. The impressive string of wins landed him a second shot on DWCS in 2018, and this time he landed an ultra fast finish of his own, with a 26 second Guillotine Choke Submission win.
However, since joining the UFC he’s only been able to finish one of his fights in the first round—and that was against a senior citizen in Antonio Nogueira. He did have a R2 Guillotine Choke submission win over Devin Clark, but his other two UFC wins both ended in low scoring decision wins.
Four of Spann’s six career losses have come early, with three KOs and one submission. All three of those KOs came in the first round, while his lone submission loss was by Rear-Naked Choke in the second round of a 2016 LFA match.
Of Spann’s 18 career wins, 15 have come early. While the perception seems to be that he’s more of a knockout threat, 11 of those 15 finishes have come by submission, including 9 in the first round. Seven of those submission wins have come by Guillotine Choke, which is notable going against a grappler who will definitely be looking to take him to the ground.
UPDATE: Spann just barely weighed in on time (with 2 minutes to spare) and missed weight by a half pound even with the towel. More importantly he looked absolutely terrible. He did take the extra allotted hour of time they give you to re-weigh and successfully made weight on his second attempt, but the weight cut looked brutal.
Fight Prediction:
Spann will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is five years younger than the 34-year-old Cirkunov.
A matchup between the last two Johnny Walker casualties, this sets up well for an early finish—the tough part is figuring out who lands it. Cirkunov is an exceptional grappler, but not much of a threat on the feet, which makes him very one dimensional. Spann has looked better on the feet, while also offering a submission game, but has not been as impressive a finisher on the UFC level. With all nine of Cirkunov’s UFC fights ending early, it’s hard to see this going the distance. We expect Cirkunov to look for an early takedown, which will be the deciding moment in this fight. Spann’s best chances for a win are likely to either clip Cirkunov coming in, or to land a Guillotine choke on the takedown attempt. Cirkunov has shown a dubious chin and has also been submitted twice earlier in his career, albeit by Heel Hook and Armbar. Given that Cirkunov has been the more impressive finisher, we give the edge to him, but this fight could definitely go either way. An older UFC fighter coming off an extended layoff who has been knocked out in the first round in his last three losses is not someone you want to go all in on. Whoever wins, we like this one to end early. Update: Following Spann’s terrible weigh-in, we’re definitely more excited about Cirkunov and less excited about Spann.
Our favorite bet here is that the fight ends in R1 at +140. We also like Cirkunov’s R1 submission line at +550 and Spann’s R1 win line at +410. With 11 submission wins and 9 in the first round, we also like Spann’s anytime submission line at +1400 as well as his R1 submission at +3000 and R2 submission at +4200.
DFS Implications:
Cirkunov has scored 108 or more DraftKings points in five of his six UFC wins. However, his one fight to make it past the second round only scored 72 points despite a R3 submission win. Cirkunov leads the slate with 4.4 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and should put on a dominating grappling performance as long as he doesn’t get knocked out. His ITD line is the second highest on the card at +115 (42%), while his R1 win line is +275 (19%). We like his chances to get an early submission here, likely in the first round, and put up a big score.
Spann’s patient fighting style and relatively low striking volume make him completely dependent on a R1 finish to score well in DFS. He does have 14 R1 wins in pro 24 fights, but he only has one in five UFC fights, where he scored 112 points with a R1 KO. In his other four UFC fights he’s put up scores of 37, 66, 79 and 63. His only other finish in the UFC was a R2 submission of Devin Clark, but he still scored just 79 points. When you combine that with his terrible weigh-in, it’s hard to get excited about Spann. With that said, this looks like a prime spot for a boom or bust performance based on the fact that Cirkunov’s last four losses have all come in the first round, with his 5th career loss coming in R2. Spann’s ITD line checks in as the fourth highest on the card at +170 (34%) and his R1 win line is +375 (15%). If he does win, it likely means he either got a quick R1 finish or he successfully defended several takedowns, which would add to his appeal on FanDuel. Cirkunov attempts the second most number of takedowns on the slate.
Fight #1
Leon Edwards
13th UFC Fight (10-2)Coming off an unintended 20 month layoff, Edwards’ last four booked fights have fallen through due to COVID. He had been scheduled to take on Tyron Woodley in March 2020, but the entire event was cancelled due to COVID. Then he was booked to take on Chimaev in December, but Edwards tested positive for COVID. The fight was rescheduled for January, only to get canceled again due to Chimaev’s lingering effects of his own COVID case. The fight was once again rebooked for this Saturday, but Chimaev was forced to withdraw again as he continues to deal with the after effects of COVID. This time, instead of keeping Edwards waiting any longer, the UFC found him a new opponent in Belal Muhammad, who just fought four weeks ago.
The last time we saw Edwards inside of the Octagon was July 2019, when he defeated Rafael dos Anjos in a low-volume five round decision. Edwards split RDA open just above the eye, with a sharp elbow out of the clinch, which looked like it might get the match stopped early on, but was handled well by the cutman.
Prior to that, Edwards won a bizarrely low volume split decision against Gunnar Nelson where Edwards led in significant strikes 31-9. Nelson led on takedowns with three landed on four attempts, but Edwards also took the high level grappler down twice on three attempts.
The second five round fight of Edwards’ career was another decision win, this time against Donald Cerrone in 2018. Edwards won a unanimous, but close 48-47 decision. He outlanded Cerrone 84-60 in significant strikes in the low-volume affair, but went 0 for 4 on takedowns. However, he also limited Cerrone to 1 for 9 on his attempts.
Edwards has just two losses in the UFC and none since 2015. His first loss came in his 2014 debut, in a split decision against Claudio Silva. His other UFC loss came in another decision, this time in 2015 against Kamaru Usman. Edwards was actually the first man to ever go the distance with Usman as apro, although that was just Usman’s second UFC fight.
His one other career loss came prior to joining the UFC, back in 2012 in what was Edwards’ third pro fight, where was disqualified for throwing a sneaky Petr (illegal knee) in the third round.
Edwards comes in on an eight fight winning streak and his last 10 fights have all made it to the 3rd round. His only two finishes over those last 10 were a pair of R3 finishes. Looking at his entire career, half of his 18 wins have come early, with six KOs and three submissions. However, six of those came prior to joining the UFC, in his first nine pro fights. He has just one finish in the first two rounds since joining the organization in 2014, which was an 8 second R1 KO in his second pro fight against an opponent who had been knocked out in the first round in two of his previous four fights, and had lost four of his last five. So it appears that win was teed up for him after he lost a split decision in his prior debut. Edwards has never been finished either as a pro or an amateur.
Belal Muhammad
13th UFC Fight (9-2)Fresh off a decision win over Dhiego Lima, Muhammad landed a career high 129 significant strikes, but absorbed a massive 26 strikes to his legs. That blew away Muhammad’s previoius career high of 88 significant strikes landed in a match. That pace seems unsustainable over five rounds, so it’s hard to see Muhammad looking to push so hard in this next one. It seemed like he knew he had an inferior opponent and needed to put on a good show to get a big fight next. Now that he has the type of matchup he was looking for, we think he’ll approach this next match less recklessly.
Since joining the UFC in 2016, 9 of Muhammad’s 12 fights have ended in decisions, including 8 of his last 9. Impressively, he’s only lost once in those last nine matches, which came in a 2019 decision against Geoff Neal. Muhammad’s lone finish over that period was a R3 Rear-Naked Choke Submission victory over Takashi Sato, who’s last three losses have all come by submission. Even with that one finish, Muhammad’s last nine fights all made it to the third round.
In his 2016 UFC debut, Muhammad lost a decision to Alan Jouban, but bounced back with a 2016 R3 KO in his next fight just 41 seconds before the fight ended with the judges. Following his only KO win in the UFC, Muhammad suffered his only KO loss, which came in the first round of his 2016 fight against a violent Vicente Luque—who notably lost a decision in his next match against Leon Edwards. Since that early loss, Muhammad has shown the ability to go the distance with several dangerous finishers.
A big story this week was that Muhammad’s longtime coach, Louis Taylor, will not be in his corner Saturday after he tested positive for COVID. Taylor has been coaching Muhammad all they way back to his high school wrestling days. This will be the first time Muhammad has ever fought without Taylor in his corner.
Fight Prediction:
Edwards will have a 3” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Both of these guys are absolute decision machines. Only two of Edwards’ last 10 UFC fights have ended early—a 2016 R3 submission win that ended 119 seconds before the final bell, and a 2018 R3 KO victory that was stopped literally 1 second before it went to the judges. Eight of Muhammad’s last nine fights also ended in decisions, and all nine made it to the third round. In fact, only one of Muhammad’s 12 UFC fights didn’t make it to the third round and that was a R1 KO loss to Vincente Luque. It would be surprising to see this fight end early, especially in the first couple rounds. We like Edwards to win a decision here, but if he were to get a finish we would expect it to come later in the fight.
“Over 3 Rounds” at -310 is about as exciting as buying a savings bond, but it looks like a near certainty. A similar bet that we much prefer is a line we found digging on FanDuel’s Sportsbook: “Edwards Wins in R4, R5 or by Decision” at -140. We also like “Edwards Wins by Decision” at +100. Or if you want to take a real long shot, check out Edwards’ R4 Win Line at +2000 or R5 Win Line at +2600.
DFS Implications:
Edwards’ calculated striking and patient grappling may score well with the judges, but not in DFS. Edwards has ground out two low-volume five-round decision wins in his last three fights, where he scored just 68 and 99 respective DraftKings points and 94 and 108 points on FanDuel. Barring an unusually low scoring slate on Saturday, a similar performance by Edwards seems unlikely to be enough for him to be useful. Edwards has landed at least two takedowns in six of his last eight fights, but has never landed more than three, and Belal has an impressive 84% takedown defense. Despite his last fight ending in a modest 92-81 significant striking total in favor of Edwards over the course of five rounds, both his strikes landed and absorbed were career highs. In his previous five round match, he came out ahead on significant strikes 84-60 and in his 10 three round UFC fights, he’s never landed more than 53 or absorbed more than 48. Because of that, he likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to score well in this spot. He notably throws solid elbows out of the clinch, which he used to slice RDA open above the eye in his last match and broke the orbital of Gunnar Nelson in his fight prior. Forcing a doctor’s stoppage from another slicing elbow could be his best bet for a finish here. Edwards’ ITD line is set at +270 (25%). Edwards does have the potential to boost his FanDuel score with takedowns defended, making him a little more interesting over there.
Muhammad is coming off a career high 129 significant strikes, which blew away his previoius career high of 88, so it will be interesting to see if that was a one time outlier or a trend that continues. He did notably go 1 for 10 on takedowns and has a career 28% takedown accuracy going against the 70% takedown defense of Edwards. If Belal can somehow win this fight, it’s hard to see him not ending up in DraftKings winning lineups based on his $7,200 price tag. He’s a little more expensive on FanDuel, so it’s not quite as much of a lock over there. Belal’s +220 moneyline implies he has a 30% chance to pull off the upset, although that feels a little high to us. His ITD line is just +25 (13%).
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma