Tip: Hard Refresh this page (Cmd + Shift + R on a Mac, Ctrl + F5 on PC) to assure you're looking at the most up to date version of The Sheet.
Enjoying The Sheet?
Buy Us a Beer!
Late Scratches: None
Fighter Notes:
Fight #15
Mario Bautista
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Coming off a R2 Flying Knee knockout win over the previously undefeated Miles Johns, Bautista is now 8-1 as a pro with his only loss resulting from a R1 Armbar submission against Cory Sandhagen in his 2019 short notice UFC debut.
While two of his last four fights have ended in decisions, seven of his nine pro fights have ended early. His most recent decision was a high volume brawl, where Bautista outlanded his opponent, Jin Soo Son, 129-95 in significant strikes. In his six career finishes, Bautista has three submission wins and three by knockout, all split across the first two rounds.
After landing 129 significant strikes over 15 minutes (8.6 SSL/min) in his second UFC fight, Bautista landed just 18 in a little over six and a half minutes in his most recent match (2.69 SSL/min). He now gets an opponent who has only been finished once in 18 pro fights, but nearly got knocked out in the first round of his recent debut.
Trevin Jones
2nd UFC Fight (0-0, NC)After stepping into his UFC debut on just two days' notice following a 15 month layoff, Jones looked like he was getting jumped outside of a Russian night club towards the end of the first round. However, after narrowly hanging on for dear life, he bounced back in a big way in the second round with a surprise knockout of his own. That made him the first person to ever finish Timur Valiev in 19 pro fights. Unfortunately for Jones, the knockout was later overturned to a contest after he tested positive for THC, which is pretty rough considering he took the fight on two days’ notice.
Prior to joining the UFC, he won his last two fights with a pair of 2019 submissions—a R2 Rear-Naked Choke and a R1 Guillotine Choke. However, he lost a pair of decisions prior to those wins. Half of Jones’ 12 career wins have ended early, with two knockouts and four submissions. Five of his six career losses have gone the distance, while he’s only ever been finished once, which came in a 2013 R2 Rear-Naked Choke. Only two of his last 15 fights have ended in the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Bautista will have a 2” height advantage, but Jones will have a 1” reach advantage.
Both fighters here have shown the ability to end fights either standing up or on the ground, but neither has been especially impressive on tape. While 11 of Jones’ 19 pro fights have ended in decisions, his last three have all ended early. Bautista has alternated between early stoppages and decisions over his last five fights and doesn’t seem to have the power or advanced grappling game that would make you confident he gets a finish here. This is a tough one to predict and we could see it ending in a variety of ways. The oddsmakers think it likely ends in a decision win for Bautista, setting the line that this fight goes the distance at -150 and Bautista’s moneyline at -250. That seems a little wide, so the value likely lands on Jones’ side.
While it’s tough to say who wins this fight, we see value in some of Jones’ lines, including his moneyline at +205, his ITD line at +410, and his R1 Win line at +950. We also like betting the fight ends in under 2.5 rounds at +158 as the true odds feel closer to a coin flip.
DFS Implications:
Bautista was unable to put up a big score in either his high-volume decision or his recent second round finish and now checks in as the 5th most expensive fighter on the DraftKings slate. This will surely keep his ownership lower, but it also means he’ll likely need to outscore all but one of the other top priced fighters, which seems like a tall task. Based on his recent performances, we’re inclined to think he needs a R1 finish to really put up a ceiling performance. The oddsmakers have set his R1 win line at +525, implying just a 12% chance.
Based on his price, Jones is actually the more intriguing fighter here as we search for high upside dogs. With his last three wins all coming in the first two rounds, Jones has shown the ability to end fights with both knockouts and submissions. After having his R2 knockout in his UFC debut overturned to a “No Contest” he likely enters this fight with a chip on his shoulder to prove that was no fluke. His DraftKings scoresheet also doesn’t show his recent finish, which could help to keep his ownership a little lower than it otherwise might be. With all that said, he was very nearly finished in the first round in that last fight and is far from a safe bet to win. His ITD line comes in at +450, implying roughly a 15% chance he gets a finish here.
Fight #14
Uros Medic
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut following a first round knockout finish on DWCS this past August, Medic has just six pro fights on his record but won all six in the first two rounds—including five first round finishes (3 KOs & 2 Submissions). The first five notably all came on the highly questionable Alaskan regional scene against a much lower level of competition, who entered those fights with records of 2-0, 4-4, 1-4, 0-1, and 5-0.
Medic started his pro career at 185 lb in 2016, but dropped down to 170 lb for his second pro fight. After fighting his next four matches at 170 lb, he then dropped another weight class down to 155 lb for his recent DWCS match (where this next match will be). Medic has never been in an MMA fight that lasted longer than six minutes, so it will be interesting to see how his cardio looks in the back half of this fight if it gets there.
Like most of the fighters we see coming out of the Alaskan regional circuit, Medic looks nowhere close to ready to be fighting in the UFC. However, what he lacks in technical skill he makes up for in undefeated ignorance that will likely give him a false sense of confidence to go charging head first into battle.
Aalon Cruz
2nd UFC Fight (0-1)Cruz will be looking to bounce back after he got knocked out by Spike Carlyle 85 seconds into his February 2020 UFC debut as he attempted a takedown. Prior to that debacle, Cruz earned his shot in the UFC with a third round Flying Knee KO on DWCS in July 2019. He showed off his affinity for throwing high kicks in that match and he outlanded his opponent 132-92 in significant strikes. Although he also failed on all four of his takedown attempts.
Of note, Cruz has fought his entire career at 145 lb, but will now be moving up to 155 lb for the first time. It’s been just over a year since he last stepped into the Octagon, so maybe he spent that time bulking up to move up to 155. It will be important to see how he looks at weigh-ins. Update: He looked fine at weigh-ins and came in right at 155 lb.
Fight Prediction:
Medic will have a 1” height advantage, but Cruz will have a massive 7” reach advantage.
Well, here’s another one of those fights where we wish we could bet on both of these guys to lose. On one side we have Medic, who’s never fought a decent opponent before, and on the other we have Cruz, who’s coming off an 85 second KO in his only UFC fight. Both guys punched their tickets to the UFC on DWCS, although Cruz has already gotten his embarrassing debut out of the way. If you’re looking for high-level martial arts match this aint it, but if you want to watch two low-level fighters kick the shit out of each other in a sloppy high-paced brawl, then giddyup. Anything can happen here, but we kind of like Cruz to pull off the upset, with either a late KO from a kick/knee or in a high-volume decision.
With so much volatility in this one, it’s hard to hone in on many specific lines. Cruz’s moneyline at +145 is semi-interesting and if you want to take a stab at something you can look at his R3 KO line at +2700. This looks like a much better fight for DFS than for betting though.
DFS Implications:
Medic’s ITD line curiously comes in as the second highest on the slate at -105, which implies roughly a 44% chance he gets a finish here. His R1 win line is also the second highest at +300, implying about an 18% chance. Those numbers seem generous for a guy making his UFC debut and coming out of the suspect Alaskan regional scene, but that clearly shows you the amount of respect the books have for Cruz. Medic has won all six of his “pro” fights early, but context is key, and this guy might as well have been fighting in the ball pit at a Chuck E Cheese. He clearly has matchup/pace based upside for DFS, just know that he has a very wide range of outcomes.
Cruz doesn’t exactly fill up the DraftKings statsheet, with just one point in as many fights, but his previous match on the Contender Series would have scored quite well. He landed 132 significant strikes and a third round knockout, which would have been good for 108 DraftKings points and a whopping 141 points on FanDuel. While most people won’t take the time to calculate that, and those scores won’t show up on either DFS site, they certainly give us reason for optimism in this spot. Priced at just $7,300 on DraftKings and $10 on FanDuel Cruz has the ability to break the slate. His moneyline is set at +145, implying a 39% chance he wins the fight, and his ITD line checks in at +340, implying roughly a 19% chance.
Fight #13
Amanda Lemos
4th UFC Fight (2-1)After turning pro at 27 years old in 2014, Lemos won her first five fights in the first round with four KOs and a Guillotine Choke. However, those wins came against opponents who entered with records of 0-0, 3-4, 0-0, 0-0, and 0-0. Three of those opponents were fighting professionally for the first and only time. She then fought to a draw in her 6th pro fight, but they ran it back and Lemos won by knockout in the third round of the rematch. It’s at that point that Lemos joined the UFC.
Lemos suffered her first and only career loss in her 2017 UFC debut against Leslie Smith, who got the TKO stoppage against what appeared to be an exhausted Lemos in the second round. A few months after the loss, Lemos was hit with a lengthy suspension after she tested positive for steroids and ended up taking 29 months off before returning to the Octagon.
After fighting her entire career to that point at 135 lb, Lemos dropped all the way down to 115 lb following her extended layoff. It’s not surprising that she moved down in weight, as she looked undersized for the 135 lb division, it’s just rare to see a fighter drop two weight classes all at once. With that said, Lemos looked strong at 115 lb and bounced back from the loss with a R1 Rear-Naked Choke submission of Miranda Granger, which is the only time Granger has been finished in her nine pro fights.
Following her first UFC victory, Lemos beat Mizuki Inoue in a decision. Lemos won the significant striking battle 83-57 and led on takedowns 2-0. Mizuki was however able to win the control time battle 6:53 vs. 2:22, but it wasn’t enough to win a single round. As was demonstrated in that fight, Lemos is a great striker but allows herself to get pushed up against the cage too easily for extended periods of time. One thing working for Lemos, her next opponent only averages 17% control time, whereas her last one averaged 25%.
Livinha Souza
5th UFC Fight (3-1)A former member of the Brazilian Olympic Judo team, Souza has landed eight takedowns in four UFC fights. She entered the UFC with an 11-1 pro MMA record with her only career loss coming against Angela Hill in their Invicta days.
In her 2018 UFC debut, Souza took on a struggling 39-year-old Alex Chambers, who came into that fight 1-3 in the UFC with two of those prior losses coming by submission. Souza landed a Guillotine Choke just 81 seconds into the match. Chambers hasn’t fought since.
Souza then took on Sarah Frota, who was making her UFC debut, and Souza defeated Frota in a low-volume decision. Frota lost her next fight as well and is currently 0-2 in the UFC. After starting her UFC career off 2-0, Souza then lost a decision to a debuting, but tough Brianna Van Buren, who outlanded Souza 72-23 in significant strikes and won the takedown battle 3-2. Souza bounced back from the loss with a decision win over Ashley Yoder last August. Souza has now fought to three straight decisions after winning her 2018 UFC debut with a R1 Guillotine Choke.
Souza generally likes to throw a single right hand over the top, opposed to attacking opponents with longer combinations, which is a major factor of why she only lands an average of 2.2 significant strikes/minute. Looking at her pro record, she’s never been finished and her only two decision losses have come against tough UFC opponents. In addition to her Olympic Judo background, she's a BJJ Blackbelt who is more comfortable on the ground and likes to hunt for submissions. She has just two career KOs, but eight wins by submission. Only four of her 14 career wins have required the judges.
Fight Prediction:
Lemos will have a 1” height advantage and 2” reach advantage.
Souza has gone 8 for 18 on takedowns across her four UFC fights and she’ll be looking to take this fight to the ground as Lemos is easily the superior striker. While Lemos officially has a 100% takedown defense in the UFC, that’s based on a single takedown attempt from her last opponent. No one has shut out Souza on takedowns so far in her four UFC fights, so it’s fair to expect that she’ll have at least some success getting this fight to the ground. If not, Lemos should control the fight standing up and even has the potential for a KO. With that said, these two fighters have combined for one early loss in 26 pro fights, so this most likely goes to a decision. The oddsmakers agree, setting the decision line at -225, tied for the highest on the slate. We like Lemos to get her hand raised.
No real value stands out, but if you feel like taking a shot on something “Souza Wins by Submission” at +1000 isn’t the worst idea in the world.
DFS Implications:
Lemos scored a decent 91 DraftKings points in her recent decision win, but it wasn’t quite enough to get excited about. She did put up 104 points in her R1 submission victory prior to that, showing that she does have something of a ceiling, but requires an early finish to show it. Lacking a dance partner for a high-volume striking brawl, Lemos will either need a complete one-sided beat down or an early finish to score well. This doesn’t look like a great spot for a ceiling performance and most likely ends in a lower volume decision. Lemos’ ITD line is set at +310, giving her a 21% chance of a finish, while her R1 win line is +700, implying just a 9% chance.
The significant striking totals in Souza’s last three matches have been 46-32, 23-72 and 23-32, with Souza only landing 23 significant strikes in two of those. She’s made it clear she can’t score well from striking alone, so she’ll either need a domination grappling performance, the likes of which we’ve yet to see from her, or a finish to be usable in DFS. She has the one early win in the UFC so far, which scored 100 DraftKings points, but that came in her UFC debut against a struggling opponent. She also had one UFC fight where she attempted 10 takedowns, but she only landed four of them and still scored just 76 points in the decision. Her ITD line is +500, implying she has about a 14% chance to finish Lemos early.
Fight #12
Sean Brady
4th UFC Fight (3-0)Entering his 14th pro fight with a perfect 13-0 record, Brady made his 2019 UFC debut against UFC journeyman Court McGee. Brady dropped Mcgee in the first round, but McGee did what he does best and hung on to lose a unanimous decision. McGee impressively has still only been finished once in 29 pro fights. Brady outlanded McGee 119-107 in significant strikes and also landed two takedowns, while defending all six of McGee’s attempts. Brady interestingly only weighed in at 167.5 lb for that 170 lb fight.
In his second UFC match, Brady took on Ismail Naurdiev, who was released by the UFC following the loss after going 2-2 in four decisions with the organization. Brady won a more grappling heavy affair, landing four takedowns and nearly eight minutes of control time, while also winning the significant striking battle 47-37 and total strikes 125-38.
Following his second straight UFC decision win, Brady took on one-dimensional power puncher Christian Aguilera. Brady outlanded Aguilera 34-16 in significant strikes and 65-17 in total strikes. He also landed a pair of takedowns and tacked on a couple minutes of control time, before eventually submitting Aguilera in the second round with an impressive one armed Guillotine Choke.
Four of Brady’s last six fights have ended in decisions, while the other two ended with a R2 Guillotine Choke and a R4 KO. Six of his 13 career wins have come early (3 KOs & 3 Submissions), but only three of those came in the first round, and all of those R1 wins came earlier in his career (1st, 5th & 6th pro fights). His last seven fights have all made it to the second round and five of those made it to the third. However, Brady is a BJJ black belt and is a well rounded fighter with explosive striking and solid grappling.
Jake Matthews
15th UFC Fight (10-4)Despite being just 26 years old, Matthews already has 14 UFC fights to his name, after he joined the organization at just 19 years old. Also a BJJ black belt, Matthews has won his last three fights and six of his last seven. However, only two of his last eight fights have ended early (1-1) and no one has ever landed more than 50 significant strikes on him in his UFC career. At the same time, Matthews has only landed above 63 significant strikes once, which was when he totaled 72 against a washed Diego Sanchez in his last fight.
While he’s not one to absorb a ton of strikes, Matthews has been finished in three of his four UFC losses—a 2018 R3 Anaconda Choke against Anthony Rocco Martin, a 2016 R1 KO vs. Kevin Lee and a 2015 R1 KO at the hands of James Vick. His only other UFC loss was a 2016 decision against Andrew Holbrook. His first four UFC wins all came early with a pair of R3 submissions, another one in the second round, and a R2 KO. However, since those four finishes, five of his last six wins have gone the distance. While 11 of his total 17 career wins have come early, six of those came in his first six fights prior to joining the UFC.
Matthews is a decent striker but isn’t much of a threat to end things on the feet. His only UFC KO came in a 2015 doctor stoppage following the second round. He has good mobility, which helps him to avoid taking much damage, and he only absorbs an average of 2.12 significant strikes/minute. He’s also a pretty good wrestler with four UFC submission wins and seven in his career. He averages 2.1 takedowns/15 minutes, but has just a 41% takedown accuracy.
Fight Prediction:
Matthews will have a 1” height and reach advantage.
This will just be Matthews’ second time entering a UFC fight as an underdog in 15 trips inside the Octagon. The other occasion was when he came in as a slight +130 dog against a tough Jingliang Li, who he defeated in a decision. In general, Matthews is accustomed to being a massive favorite, like in his last match where he came in at a -715.
Both of these fighters have stout takedown defenses of 100% for Brady and 70% for Matthews. Obviously the sample size is much larger for Matthews, as Brady has only had to defend seven takedown attempts so far in the UFC, and six of those came against Court McGee and his putrid 21% career takedown accuracy. With that said, both of these guys have pretty solid wrestling that could potentially cancel each other out.
Brady is easily the more powerful striker, but Matthews is better at not getting hit. He averages just 2.12 significant strikes absorbed/minute, which is the 6th fewest on the slate, while Brady more than doubles that at 4.35. And the only time Matthews has ever been knocked out came against Kevin Lee in 2016. So if this does turn into a lower volume stand up battle, it’s entirely conceivable that Matthews points his way to another decision win.
While we still think Brady has the better chance to win this fight, getting “Matthews Wins by Decision” at +350 is too good to pass up on. We also like the odds that this fight “Goes the Distance” at -156.
DFS Implications:
Brady has consistently scored well in DFS with DraftKings scores of 105, 99 and 104 in his three UFC fights, however, now he gets his toughest opponent to date in a pace down matchup. It seems unlikely that Brady will be able to stack up enough volume or grappling stats to once again score well in a decision, so he’s more reliant on a finish. His ITD line is set at +260, implying he has roughly a 24% chance, which seems a little high if you ask us. His R1 win line is just +550, giving him about an 11% chance to really go off. This looks like the rare spot where you want to be under the field on Brady in DFS.
For the most part, Matthews has been toxic for DFS. He’s only scored above 97 DraftKings points once in his last 10 fights, which was when he put up 103 in a R3 submission win, and no one but Kevin Lee in 2016 has scored well against him. Even when Anthony Rocco Martin submitted Matthews in the third round of their 2018 match he scored just 59 points. However, now priced at just $6,900 on DraftKings, it’s hard to ignore Matthews’ value. His last five decision wins have scored 87, 96, 55, 97 and 82 points. So if he can pull off another decision win here and avoid a floor performance, he has the chance to score in the 80’s or 90’s, which at his dirt-cheap price tag would allow you to fit in the other high priced pieces around him. And it’s not like he has no chance of getting an early finish. His ITD line is set at +700, implying he has roughly an 11% chance to finish Brady early.
Fight #11
Carlos Ulberg
1st UFC Fight (0-0)Making his UFC debut in just his fourth pro fight, Ulberg is another member of the City Kickboxing team, meaning he has one of the top hype men in the industry backing him in the champ Israel Adesanya—who also cornered Ulberg in his recent DWCS match. Ulberg won that November fight with a face-planting R1 KO just 122 seconds into the match.
While Ulberg’s limited three fight MMA career is obviously concerning, it’s encouraging that he’s at least taken on opponents with some level of experience, opposed to getting served up guys making their pro debuts or with losing records. Here are the records of his opponents coming into his fights: 4-1, 2-0 and 8-1. He also had three kickboxing matches in 2019, which he won with a R2 KO and a pair of third round KOs. One thing that stands out on his record is that his first MMA fight was all the way back in 2011 and then he didn’t compete again in MMA for seven years. It sounds like he was focussing on kickboxing and rugby during that time from what we understand. So since his return to MMA, he’s fought once in December 2018 and then most recently in November 2020. Talk about a limited resume.
While Ulberg is still a raw talent, his striking ability and power can’t go unnoticed. His team at City Kickboxing calls him the hardest kicker in the gym. While Ulberg is unlikely to add anything in the grappling department, he’s always a threat to finish opponents on the feet.
Kennedy Nzechukwu
3rd UFC Fight (1-1)Similar to Ulberg, Nzechukwu made an appearance on DWCS in his third pro fight back in 2017, however he didn’t have the same success. The fight ended in a decision and Nzechukwu was relegated back to the regional scene. However, after landing a pair of knockouts in the first two rounds of his next couple fights, he was invited back on DWCS in 2018. That time he capitalized on the opportunity and landed a R1 KO via head kick. That was enough for him to get his shot in the UFC.
He took on Paul Craig in his UFC debut and got submitted in the third round via Triangle Choke. He bounced back with a decision win in August 2019 with the help of two point deductions from his opponent, Darko Stosic, for multiple groin strikes. Two of the judges ruled the fight 28-27, so had Stosic not been deducted two points he would have won 29-28 on those two scorecards. For reference, Stosic has now lost three straight decisions. Nzechukwu is notably coming off an extended 19 month layoff.
Nzechukwu is a big strong guy, but he looks more like a gentle giant than an explosive striker like Ulberg. The only time he’s been finished was when Paul Craig submitted him in his UFC debut, so we’ve yet to see him get knocked out in eight pro fights. Four of his seven pro wins have come by KO and three have ended in decisions.
Fight Prediction:
Nzechukwu will have a 1” height advantage and 6” reach advantage.
This sets up as a striking battle between two powerful, but raw big men. Ulberg clearly offers more crisp, explosive strikes, while Nzechukwu is more of a lumbering oaf swinging tree limbs at opponents. That’s not to say Nzechukwu can’t be dangerous, and you definitely don’t want him dropping elbows on you or kicking you in the side of the head, but he’s the opposite of a technical striker. Nzechukwu’s loose awareness of the rules is also concerning. He was warned multiple times in his UFC debut for extended fingers and grabbing the fence, before finally getting deducted a point in the third round for an eye poke.
Neither one of these fighters has ever been knocked out, so it’s hard to gauge their chins. Nzechukwu looks like the type of guy that can take a punch, that’s pure speculation. If Ulberg can land the perfect shot, look for him to get a knockout, but if not, we like him to win a decision.
Ulber wins by KO at +125 and by decision at +270 are the two lines we’re looking at.
DFS Implications:
Ulberg’s recent R1 KO win on the Contender Series would have been good for 104 DraftKings points and 118 points on FanDuel. With no grappling skills to boost his DFS scores, he’s entirely reliant on striking and finishes to score well. He does check in with the third best R1 win odds on the slate at +333, or roughly a 17% chance. His ITD line is set at +120, implying a 39% chance, although a finish outside of the first round is less likely to make the optimal lineup at his price. He’s best thought of as a R1 or bust play when determining your exposure.
Nzechukwu hasn’t sniffed a decent score so far in his two UFC fights, although his second Contender Series performance would have been good for 108 points on DraftKings and 123 points on FanDuel. Similar to Ulberg, Nzechukwu is reliant on a finish to score well as he doesn’t land much striking volume and has zero takedowns on his record. Because he’s so much cheaper, he does have a wider DFS window for what constitutes a usable performance. His ITD line is set at +340 (19%), while his R1 win line is just +750 (9%). While we don’t see him finishing Ulberg, the odds suggest he has somewhat of a chance. We also expect him to be very low owned, so he looks like a gross but decent contrarian tournament play. Keep in mind, he is coming off an extended layoff, which generally is a bad sign.
Fight #10
Tim Elliott
15th UFC Fight (5-9)This fight was originally scheduled for January 16th, but Espinosa tested positive for COVID and it was pushed back nearly two months.
Elliot originally joined the UFC in 2012, however, after going 2-4 he was released in 2015. Five of those fights ended in decisions, while the sixth was a R1 Guillotine Choke loss to Joseph Benavidez. After getting released, Elliot went 3-0 in Titan FC with two five round decision wins and a R2 Guillotine Choke victory. He then worked his way back into the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, where he ended up losing to former champ Demetrious Johnson, in what went down as his first fight back. Now 2-5 with the UFC and desperate for a win, Elliot put up a career grappling performance in a decision win against Louis Smolka in 2017, where Elliot landed 12 takedowns, three reversals and eight minutes of control time to go along with 57 significant strikes.
Since the highlight reel performance, Elliot has once again gone on a 2-4 stretch, which includes three submission losses in the first two rounds—including two in R1. His only two wins in those last six fights came in a 2017 R2 Anaconda Choke and then a decision in his most recent fight. He notably tore his ACL in June of 2018, which resulted in nearly a two year layoff from December 2017 until October 2019. He lost his first three fights after coming back, before his recent victory.
Despite his putrid 5-9 UFC record, and losing 8 of his last 11 UFC fights, Elliot is still allowed to hang around because he’s “exciting”—or at least was. It’s amazing how much goodwill one big performance will get you.
Elliot’s last fight ended in a low-volume decision where he outlanded Ryan Benoit 67-55 in significant strikes and amazingly went 1 for 13 on takedowns. He squeaked out a unanimous 29-28 decision, breaking his three fight losing streak. He also came dangerously close to getting submitted with a kneebar in the second round. He looked slightly more controlled in that match than he has in the past and seemed to pace himself better. That can likely be attributed to the coaching of James Krause. In Elliot’s prior match against Brandon Royval, Elliot looked to gas out by the second round when he got submitted.
One final note on Mr. Exciting: Tim Elliot has one finish in 14 UFC fights.
Jordan Espinosa
6th UFC Fight (2-3)Espinosa had a pair of finishes on DWCS a year apart from one another. Interestingly, when he first made an appearance on the show in 2017 he landed a R1 submission win, but was not awarded a contract. He then went back a year later and landed a R3 KO and this time was given a contract.
He made his UFC debut in 2019 and won a low-volume decision. He then got submitted in the first round of back-to-back fights against dangerous submission threats in Matt Schnell and Alex Perez.
Following the pair of early losses, he moved up to 135 lb for one fight to take on Mark De La Rosa. Espinosa ended up winning a decision, but he put on a career performance, outlanding De La Rosa 126-37 in significant strikes and adding a pair of takedowns.
He then took on another tough opponent, David Dvorak, who came in on a 14 fight winning streak. Dvorak beat Espinosa in a lower volume unanimous 30-27 decision.
While Espinosa does have seven submission wins on his record, four of those came in his first four pro wins and he only has two submission wins since 2015. It is worth noting that six of his seven career submissions did come in the first round.
Fight Prediction:
Elliott will have a 1” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
Both of these fighters have lost three of their last four fights. Elliot has been submitted four times in the UFC, including in three of his last four losses, while Espinosa has been submitted in two of his three UFC losses. While they also have 13 submission wins between them, only one of those came in the UFC. Still, if this fight were to end early, it seems like a submission would be the likely culprit. Espinosa has never been knocked out in 23 pro fights and Elliot has only been knocked out once in his 28 career matches. With all that in mind, it more likely ends in a decision, but it really depends on whether we see the crazy balls to the wall Elliot that gasses out in five minutes, like we saw against Royval, or the slightly more calm and paced version of Elliot that we saw in his last fight. The latter seems more likely, based on the fact that he claims to be taking James Krause’s advice, but you never know. Both of these guys have been pretty terrible, so it’s hard to be confident in either, but we like Espinosa to get it done. All three of his losses have come against tougher competition, and when he did get a favorable matchup he dominated. Elliot’s a washed up carnival act, while Espinosa is trying to establish himself in the UFC.
Seven of Espinosa’s 15 career wins have been by submission and six of those seven submissions came in the first round. When you combine that with the fact that three of Elliot’s last four losses also were by submission—including two in R1—Espinosa’s R1 submission line at +1900 seems like a solid value play. You might also want to consider his anytime submission line at +750. Espinosa has also been submitted in four of his eight career losses, and six of Elliot’s 16 career wins have come by submission, so you can consider his submission line of +500 as well. His last two submission wins have come in the second round if you want to increase those odds to +1900.
DFS Implications:
Elliot has topped 53 DraftKings points just three times in his last 10 UFC fights, when he put up totals of 76, 108 and 150. One of his two usable scores (108 points) came when he landed his lone UFC finish with a R2 submission against Mark “Bumblebee” De La Rosa. Elliot’s only other useful performance came when he uncorked 12 takedowns on Louis Smolka (31% career takedown defense) en route to 150 point performance. It seemed like Elliot’s coach, James Krause, was trying to slow him down in his last fight, with the crazy idea of actually trying to win a fight, opposed to just waving his hands around like a crazy person and moving sporadically. If that voice of reason remains, chasing Elliot’s fights based on his high pace/output may be a thing of the past. Elliot’s ITD like is set at +310, implying a 21% chance he gets a finish, which seems high considering he has one finish in his 14 UFC fights. His R1 line is just +900 (7%).
Espinosa’s lone useful DFS performance also came against Mark “Bumblebee” De La Rosa. That fight was up at 135 lb, whereas the rest of Espinosa’s UFC fights have been down at 125 lb. Elliot notably has the third highest average for missed takedowns/15 minutes on the slate at 4.4. When you combine that with Espinosa’s 90% takedown defense, Espinosa looks like a better play on FanDuel. Espinosa’s ITD line comes in at +375, implying an 18% chance, while his R1 odds are +800 (8%).
Fight #9
Kai Kara-France
7th UFC Fight (4-2)Ironically nicknamed "Don't Blink" Kara-France’s first five UFC fights all ended in decisions. He came into the UFC in 2018 on a five fight winning streak, and proceeded to win three straight decisions. However, at that point he began facing stiffer competition and has since dropped two of his last three matches.
He lost a 2019 decision to now #1 Flyweight contender Brandon Moreno in a standup striking battle with solid, but unexceptional striking volume. He then beat Tyson Nam in a slightly lower volume decision, before taking on Royval most recently, in a chaotic scrap that ended with Royval choking Kara-France out in the opening minute of the second round.
He’s still impressively won 9 of his last 11 fights, but Kara-France desperately needs a win here to avoid dropping three of his last four. Prior to getting submitted by Royval in his last fight, Kara-France hadn’t been finished in his last 17 fights going back to 2014.
He does have respectable striking skills and on paper a solid takedown defense. But one thing to consider when looking at his 90% TD defense is who he's fought:
- Royval (100% Career TD Accuracy) 0 attempted
- Nam (0% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 4
- Moreno (40% Career TD Accuracy) 0 attempted
- De La Rosa (13% Career TD Accuracy) 1 for 7
- Paiva (20% Career TD Accuracy) 0 for 4
- Garcia (14% Career TD Accuracy) 1 for 7
We’re not suggesting his takedown defense is necessarily bad, it just hasn’t been truly tested in the UFC. Kara-France began his career at 135 lb, but dropped down to 125 in 2018 when he joined the UFC.
"I can guarantee you, ladies and gentlemen, this fight will be fireworks."
-Dana White on Kara-France vs. Bontorin
Rogerio Bontorin
4th UFC Fight (2-1)Bontorin is coming off an ultra low-volume smothering decision loss against Ray Borg, where Borg outlanded Bontorin 35-9 in significant strikes, landed 10 takedowns on a crazy 19 attempts and amassed over 11 minutes of control time. Prior to the dud against Borg, Bontorin was 2-0 in the UFC and had won his previous four fights.
Bontorin punched his ticket to the UFC with a second round submission on DWCS in 2018. He then made his 2019 UFC debut against Magomed Bibulatov and won a split decision.
Following the decision win in his debut, Bontorin took on Raulian Paiva and in what ended up being a bizarre three minute fight that went down as a R1 TKO for Bontorin. Two minutes into the fight the ref called time for a cut under the eye of Bontorin, but after a doctor checked him out the fight was resumed. Thirty seconds later, Bontorin landed a destructive knee to the face of Paiva, and thirty seconds after that the ref paused the action for the second time in the opening minutes. The cut to Paiva was deemed serious enough to stop the fight and Bontorin was awarded the victory in a fight that felt like it never even got started.
A BJJ black belt, Bontorin is a submission specialist with 11 of his 16 career wins ending in submissions. He does have three KO wins on his record, but as previously mentioned, his most recent one was due to a doctor stoppage. He’s a low-volume striker who averages just 2.3 significant strikes landed per minute and he’s actually only landed 98 significant strikes in his last four fights combined. He’s notably been taken down 14 times in his first three UFC fights, although 10 of those came at the hands of Ray Borg in his last match.
Prior to his DWCS fight, Bontorin fought at 135 lb, but moved down to 125 lb in 2018, where he’s stayed.
Fight Prediction:
Bontorin will have a 1” height advantage but Kara-France will have a 2” reach advantage.
Kara-France throws way more volume than Bontorin, and averages 5.16 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Bontorin’s 2.3. Bontorin apepars reliant on getting a submission to win and has a 35% career takedown accuracy, while Kara-France has a 90% takedown defense. As long as Kara-France can avoid getting submitted again, we like him to win a decision here.
Kara-France’s money line at -136 and decision line at +125 are our two favorite bets here.
DFS Implications:
Kara-France has failed to score above 82 DraftKings points in his last five fights and has just one usable DFS performance so far in his career, which came in his 2018 UFC debut. While that fight still ended in a decision, Kara-France was able to log ten and a half minutes of control time and 157 total strikes, in addition to landing a knockdown. That was good for 111 DraftKings points and 102 on FanDuel. Kara-France doesn’t have a takedown in his last three fights and lacks the volume to generally score well in decisions. Barring a flukey outcome with multiple knockdowns or massive amounts of control time, he appears reliant on a finish to score well. His ITD line checks in at +500, implying just a 14% chance we see that happen. To put up a really big score he would need a R1 finish, which his +900 line implies has just a 7% likelihood of happening.
Outside of his random doctor stoppage TKO, Bontorin hasn’t scored above 64 DraftKings points in his other two UFC fights. While his R2 submission win on the Contender Series doesn’t show up on his DK statsheet, it would have scored a decent 98 DraftKings points and 123 points on FanDuel. Based on his low striking volume, he appears to need a finish to score well in DFS. Kara-France owns a 90% takedown defense, which lowers Bontorin’s chances of getting this to the mat and hunting for a submission. Bontorin’s ITD line does notably check in at +300, implying a 21% chance he can finish Kara-France. His R1 win line is +650, implying just a 10% chance. Kara-France is notably coming off a submission loss to Brandon Royval, but that was the first time Kara-France had been finished in his last 18 fights, going back to 2014.
Fight #8
Askar Askarov
4th UFC Fight (2-0-1)Coming off a defensive decision win over Alexandre Pantoja, Askarov has never lost a fight and holds a 12-0-1 pro record. After he won his first 10 pro fights early, all three of his UFC matches have ended in decisions. In fairness, he’s gone against a couple of top ranked opponents in his first three UFC fights, and he made his 2019 UFC debut against Brandon Moreno, in a fight that ended in a draw. He then took on Tim Elliot in his second UFC fight, but was unable to finish the wild man. Most recently we saw him go against a dangerous finisher in Alexandre Pantoja, but Askarov was able to defend everything Pantoja could throw at him and win a decision.
Askarov has gone 6 for 33 on takedowns so far in his three UFC fights against opponents with takedown defenses of 67%, 58% and 68%. So on the one hand, his takedown accuracy has been absolutely terrible, but on the other hand he’s averaged a slate-leading 11 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. If he can ever start landing even an average number of his attempts then he would have the potential for a takedown explosion. Of his 10 career finishes, he has three wins by knockout and seven by submission.
UPDATE: Askarov missed weight by 1 lb, and declined the option to try and cut the last pound even though he had two more hours available. He also looked pretty rough, so all the signs point to a tough weight cut.
Joseph Benavidez
21st UFC Fight (15-5)Hoping to stay relevant after back-to-back early losses against Deiveson Figueiredo, Benavidez is now 36 years old and coming off consecutive losses for the first time in his career. Impressively, six of his seven career losses have come against current or former champs. He lost a pair of decisions to Dominick Cruz in 2009 and 2010. Then he lost a decision to Demetrious Johnson in 2012 and got knocked out in R1 when they ran it back four fights later in 2013. Then, most recently he was knocked out in R2 and then submitted in R1 by Deiveson Figueiredo. His only other career loss came against Sergio Pettis in a 2018 split decision.
Benavidez has only been finished three times in his 35 pro fights. The first time came in 2013 against former champ Demetrious Johnson by way of R1 KO. The other two times came in his last two fights, both against the current champ Deiveson Figueiredo, with a R2 KO and a R1 Rear-Naked Choke.
Prior to his recent pair of losses to Figueiredo, seven of Benavidez’s last nine fights ended in decisions. With that said, four of his last five fights ended early and he finished a tough Alex Perez with a R1 KO in 2018 and knocked out Jussier Formiga in the second round in 2019. Of his 28 career wins, 17 have come early, including eight KOs and nine submissions.
Benavidez is not a high volume striker and has only landed above 69 significant strikes in one of his 20 UFC fights, which was when he landed 94 on Dustin Ortiz in 2014. He also doesn’t absorb many significant strikes with a career average of 2.62/minute.
Fight Prediction:
Askarov will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is eight years younger than Benavidez.
It’s been 21 months since Benavidez last won a fight. Now at 36-years-old, the question that needs to be answered is how much does Benavidez have left in the tank? He takes on a young, tough, undefeated opponent, so it’s far from an easy matchup. It’s also hard to gauge Benavidez’s washed status based on two early losses against the champ. Benavidez did hand Alex Perez his first ever KO loss (in 30 pro fights), in the first round of their 2018 match. And his most recent win was a R2 KO of Jussier Formiga, who had notably gone the distance against Figueiredo in his previous fight. The most likely outcome here is another grinding decision win for Askarov, but there is a chance that Benavidez could knock him out.
There are too many variables in play to feel good about any of the safe bets here, but if you think Benavidez isn’t washed, you might want to consider his KO line at +500 or decision line at +300. Two of his last three wins have come by KO in the first two rounds. So you can also look at his R1 KO line of +1200 or his R2 KO line of +1900.
DFS Implications:
Askarov has failed to score above 71 DraftKings points in his first three UFC fights, but if he can ever land even a decent number of his takedown attempts he has the potential to put up a big score. Benavidez has a middle of the road 65% takedown defense. Askarov lacks the striking volume to score well from volume, so he’ll either need a commanding grappling performance or an early finish to be useful in DFS. His ITD line is set at +450, implying a 15% chance, while his R1 win line is +900, implying just a 7% chance.
Benavidez has impressively scored 108 or more DraftKings points in his last three wins, with a 113 points in a R1 KO, 109 points in a three round grappling-heavy decision, and 108 points in a R2 KO. However, his four wins prior to those all ended in decisions and he scored 58, 61, 49 and 102 with just the one usable performance. So in his last seven wins he’s had three duds and four solid scores. In his last two decisions that scored over 100 DraftKings points, Benavidez landed at least 4 takedowns and seven or more minutes of controle time. Askarov has faced three solid grapplers so far in the UFC and has been taken down a total of five times. With a background in freestyle wrestling it seems unlikely that Benavidez will be able to dominate him on the ground. That most likely leaves Benavidez reliant on a finish to score well here. His ITD line comes in at +300, implying a 21% chance, while his R1 win line is set at +650, implying a 10% chance. Askarov has not only never been finished, he’s never lost a fight, so if the UFC vet is able to finish him it would be an impressive feat.
Fight #7
Song Yadong
7th UFC Fight (5-0-1)In 21 pro fights, the only time Yadong has ever been finished came in a 2016 R2 knockout, which was fought at Featherweight (145 lb) prior to joining the UFC. He has competed at both 135 lb and 145 lb throughout his career and he’s coming off a win at 145 lb, but this next match will be down at 135 lb. So far in the UFC, he’s 2-0 with one win by submission at 145 lb and 3-0-1 at 135 lb with two knockout victories. After winning three of his first four UFC fights early, his last two matches have both ended in decisions. In fairness, his last two opponents were Cody Stamann and Marlon Vera who have only combined for one early loss in 47 pro fights.
Yadong made his 2017 short notice UFC debut in his home country of China as the youngest fighter on the roster at just 19 years old (no pressure, right?). However, you wouldn’t have guessed it from his performance as he submitted Bharat Khandare with a R1 Guillotine Choke. For what it’s worth, that was the third time Khandare has been submitted in just eight pro fights and he’s been choked out in the first round of his last two matches. Yadong knocked Khandare down with a faint left jab overhand right and then choked him out as he attempted to get back up.
He followed up the impressive win with a R2 KO of Felipe Arantes, who was coming off a pair of decision losses, but had previously never been knocked out in 28 pro fights. Yadong landed both a takedown and a knockdown in that match and was able to exert heavy top pressure and vicious ground and pound. He finished the fight with just one second remaining in the second round with a sharp elbow out of the clinch. He ended up with over six minutes of control time in the match.
Yadong then took on Vince Morales, who he defeated in a unanimous 30-27 decision. For context, three of Morales’ four UFC fights have ended in decisions, with the one finish coming when Chris Gutierrez chopped his legs off.
Then, in 2019 Yadong took on an experienced UFC veteran in #13 ranked Alejandro Perez who came into the fight with a 7-2-1 UFC record and having not been finished since 2015. Yadong knocked Perez out in just 124 seconds.
Following his second first round finish in four UFC fights, Yadong was matched up with his toughest opponent to date in #9 ranked Cody Stamann. The two top competitors ended up fighting to a draw after Yadong was deducted a point for landing an illegal knee in the first round. Stamann landed five takedowns on 12 attempts and it looked like it would win the fight after the point deduction.
Then Yadong moved back up to 145 lb for just the second time in the UFC for a short notice booking and won a very close decision over Marlon Vera, who clearly disagreed with the judges result. That last fight was Yadong’s highest volume striking match (on both sides) of his career.
Yadong’s entire life has been dedicated to the pursuit of martial arts. He started intense training at just 9 years old when he left his family to go train with the Shaolin Monks. By the age of 12 he was already winning championships and he went pro in MMA at just 16. He hasn't lost a fight since 2016 and is an excellent striker with really fast hands. Nine of his 16 career wins have come early, with six KOs and three submissions.
"I'm telling you right now, that fight is probably gonna be the fight of the night."
-Dana White on Yadong vs. Phillips
Kyler Phillips
3rd UFC Fight (2-0)While Yadong has been taking on ranked fighters, Phillips has yet to face a UFC opponent who’s even won a UFC fight. He won a decision in his February 2020 UFC debut against Gabriel Silva, who came into that fight 0-1 in the UFC. Overall Phillips looked pretty decent in the fight, outlanding Silva 89-31 in significant strikes, while each landed a pair of takedowns. Phillips did manage to tack on nearly six minutes of control time.
Most recently, Phillips took on Cameron Else, who was making his short notice UFC debut after Phillips’ original opponent dropped out. Phillips opened as a massive -420 favorite for that one, and seemed to be set up to succeed. Phillips nearly ended the fight late in the first round, but Else appeared to be saved by the bell. The rescue was short lived, however, as Phillips finished Else less than a minute into the second round.
While Phillips joined the UFC in February 2020, it appeared he could have been signed a few years earlier when he landed a R1 KO on DWCS in 2017 against James Gray who came in 4-1 and off his first pro loss. Interestingly, Dana decided not to give Phillips a contract despite a 46 second first round win. Maybe he just didn’t think he was ready, as it was just his 5th pro fight, or maybe it was Phillips’ weird ass post fight interview that turned Dana off:
“I’m the Matrix, this is the system. I control it, I control their thoughts, their actions. They’re stepping into my world and I’m going to unplug ‘em from the Matrix, every person that steps across the cage from me.”
—Kyler Phillips, 2017
He also talked about how he wants to keep fights on the feet and keep them exciting while he goes for KOs. After not getting a contract, he lost an exhibition match on the Ultimate Fighter against now UFC fighter Brad Katona. That wasn’t an official pro fight so it doesn’t show up on his record.
Phillips then went on to suffer his only official career loss, which came in a 2018 split decision. Phillips bounced back from the loss with a R1 KO against Emeka Ifekandu, who came into that fight on a two fight losing streak and hasn’t fought again since.
Phillips is now 8-1 as a pro with six of his wins coming early—five by KO and one by submission. The first five finishes of his career all impressively came in the first round. It’s worth noting that two of his R1 wins came in his first two pro fights against opponents who had never fought professionally before.
A Jiu Jitsu brat, Kyler started “training” at a ridiculous three years old when his dad got him involved with the Gracie academy. He now trains out of Phoenix, Arizona at the same gym as Sean O’Malley.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’8” but Phillips will have a sizable 5” reach advantage.
This sets up for an exciting striking battle, but it will be a massive step up in competition for Kyler Phillips as he goes from facing a UFC newcomer on short notice to the #14 ranked Song Yadong. Despite Yadong joining the UFC two and a half years before Phillips, it’s Phillips that’s two years older than the 23-year-old Yadong. Phillips looks like a cocky, yet promising up-and-coming prospect, but Yadong will be his first true competition and we like Yadong to win this one with either a KO in the first two rounds or in a decision. We haven’t really seen Phillips’ chin get tested so it’s hard to say how it will hold up against the heavy overhead right that Yadong likes to throw.
Yadong’s moneyline at -160 seems like a good bet, but it won’t excite many people. Yadong has six R1 wins and three in R2. Some books offer the “Yadong Wins in R1 or R2” line at +310, which we like. Otherwise you might consider the individual rounds at +600 and +850 or his KO line at +270.
DFS Implications:
This sets up for a great fight, the question is just if that translates into a usable DFS performance for the winner.
Three of Yadong’s last four fights have ended with the judges and he has not put up usable DFS scores in any of those decisions. However, he’s scored 103, 122 and 104 DraftKings points in his three UFC finishes. He notably had his highest scoring performance in his late R2 finish, opposed to either of his two R1 wins, showing his ability to score well later into fights, albeit in a best case scenario with a finish just one second before the second round ended. His ITD line is +230, implying a 26% chance he finishes Phillips, and his R1 win line comes in at +475, implying a 13% chance. All nine of his career finishes have come in the first two rounds, with six ending in R1. The field may overlook Yadong to some extent, as he’s coming off a close decision and a draw, and going against a popular underdog.
Recency bias will likely have people overly excited about Phillips, as he’s 2-0 in the UFC and coming off an early victory. He hasn’t put up huge scores in his two wins, but he’s been consistent with DraftKings totals of 91 and 98. His high-volume fighting style is certainly DFS-friendly, especially as he mixes in takedowns and submission attempts. So if he does win, there’s a good chance he ends up in the optimal lineup at his reasonable price tag. His moneyline opened at +140 and was bet down to +135, implying he has a 41% chance to win this fight, which seems high to us. His ITD line is +450, implying just a 15% chance. There’s no guarantee a decision win would propel him into winning lineups, but it’s hard to see a finish not getting him there.
Fight #6
Dominick Cruz
8th UFC Fight (5-2)After losing the Bantamweight belt to Cody Garbrandt in a five round decision back in December 2016, Cruz looked to make a comeback last May in a title fight against Henry Cejudo. After dancing around the Octagon for nearly two rounds, Cruz leaned into a brutal right knee that sent him careening to the mat. Cejudo immediately jumped on top and landed a flurry of punches to the side of Cruz’s head before the ref stopped the action. Cruz disputed the stoppage vehemently, and is still walking around muttering about it to this day. He even went as far as requesting any ref but Keith Peterson for this next fight, which shows just how salty he still is over what seemed like a fair stoppage. Cruz comes across as the old guy on the court that calls non-existent fouls after every shot he misses.
Cruz had tried to fight in both 2017 and 2019, but was forced to withdraw both times due to injury. Prior to getting knocked out for the first time in his career, Cruz fought to three straight five round decisions in 2016 to defend his Bantamweight belt. He beat T.J. Dillashaw and Urijah Faber in the first two, but was defeated by Garbrandt in the third.
Cruz impressively won 22 of his first 23 pro fights, with his only loss prior to 2016 coming in a 2007 match against Urijah Faber, before either joined the UFC. Faber was able to submit Cruz in the first round with a Guillotine Choke. They went on to run that matchup back twice for the Bantamweight belt and Cruz won both of those, including when he first won the belt in his 2011 UFC debut.
Amazingly, Cruz has only fought in one three round fight since joining the UFC, which was a 2014 R1 KO win over Takeya Mizugaki. This next match will just be his second three round fight since 2009.
Cruz’s unorthodox movement and fighting style unquestionably make him a tough guy to prepare for, and also seem to result in an above average number of head clashes. We’re not saying Dominick Cruz’s career ends on a head butt stoppage, but we’re also not not saying that.
Casey Kenney
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Kenney enters this fight on a three fight winning streak after narrowly beating Nathaniel Wood in a close/questionable decision in his last match. That striking explosion saw Wood outland Kenney 136-123 in significant strikes, but Kenney did land two takedowns on six attempts. Kenney notably also fought just three weeks prior to that match in a decision win over Heili Alateng. Kenney viciously attacked Heili with leg strikes throughout the fight, but was 0 for 1 on his takedown attempts.
Kenney started 2020 off with a decision loss against Merab Dvalishvili, who landed a Merabish 12 takedowns on him. Kenney bounced back with his lone UFC finish in a R1 submission win over Louis Smolka in May.
In his UFC debut back in 2019, Kenney was gifted a highly questionable decision over Ray Borg. To his credit, Kenney took that fight on just 6 days notice and then Ray Borg missed weight. However, Borg controlled the entire fight and landed 7 of 10 takedowns while Kenney was 2 for 2. We didn’t see a lot of strikes landed, but Kenney did win in that department outlanding Borg 32-17.
Kenney’s second UFC fight came against a much larger Manny Bermudez in a catchweight fight. Kenney was able to edge out the striking advantage 43-37 in another wrestling style match that saw Bermudez land 3 of 4 takedowns while Kenney again went 2 for 2.
Kenney started his career fighting at 125 lb until he moved up to 135 lb in 2019 one fight before joining the UFC. Eleven of Kenney’s last 13 fights and five of his six UFC fights have all ended in decisions. The only exceptions were a R1 LFA KO win over Vince Cachero and the R1 submission win over Louis Smolka.
Kenney is 5-1 in the UFC but two of those decisions seemed to be gifts, despite going down as unanimous. He could easily be looking at a 4-2 or even 3-3 record.
Fight Prediction:
Cruz will have a 1” height advantage but both fighters share a 68” reach.
It seems like this fight really comes down to how Cruz looks opposed to the matchup itself. If Cruz can regain some of his previous form then obviously he should be the favorite to win a decision here. However, if he’s completely washed and chasing his former glory days, then he might as well stay in the commentary booth. We’ve seen less than 10 minutes of tape on Cruz in the last 4+ years so it’s tough to say just how much he has left in the tank. We thought he looked old in his last match, but he did still seem to have decent mobility. We think this one’s close to a coin flip, but likely ends in a decision.
Betting on the fight to end in a decision seems like the safe bet. But since -240 won’t excite many people, the second best options are to bet on either Kenney’s decision line at +155 or Cruz’s at +175. We slightly prefer Cruz there.
DFS Implications:
Cruz’s below average striking volume makes him more reliant on a finish and seven of his last nine fights have ended in decisions. His only UFC early win came in a 2014 R1 KO in his lone three round fight. His ITD line is set at +600, implying just a 12% chance. While Cruz averages 3.1 takedowns/15 minutes across his career, including 10 takedowns in 25 minutes against Demetrious Johnson, he didn’t land any in his last two fights on 11 attempts and his career accuray is just 48%. Kenney notably hasn’t been taken down in his last three fights after getting Dvalishvili’d 12 times in his third UFC match. Kenney was also notably a college wrestler. Because all but one of Cruz’s UFC fights have been five rounders, his DraftKings statsheet is incredibly inflated when considering him for a three round fight. While all these five round decisions make him look like a solid scorer, a 103 point pace over five rounds only amounts to 74 points over three rounds. We think his name and inflated scores could drive up his ownership some, giving us just one more reason to fade this fight.
Kenney is coming off a 92 point performance in a brawling decision that appeared to show his ceiling barring an early finish. The only time he’s scored more in his six UFC fights was when he submitted Smolka in R1 for a 103 DraftKings points in his lone UFC finish. There’s no chance we see as much volume in this next fight as we got in Kenney’s last one, so even in a win, it’s hard to see Kenney putting up a usable score. So if you play him you’re relying on him to be just the third person to ever finish Cruz. His ITD line is set at +310, generously giving him a 21% of getting it done. That seems a little high, but who knows how Cruz will look. We think fading this fight altogether is the play.
Fight #5
Aleksandar Rakic
7th UFC Fight (5-1)Rakic is coming off a three round main event snoozer, where he laid on Anthony Smith for the majority of the fight. He outlanded Smith just 44-9 in significant strikes, leaving everyone wondering WTF was that? Further making sure everyone hates him, Rakic stood up with eight seconds left in the fight to start celebrating, opposed to actually trying to finish the fight. Rakic started that fight with a series of violent leg kicks, knocking Smith down on the 11th one, 90 seconds into the fight. He was able to control Smith on the ground for the remainder of the fight, with a brief pause between rounds before resuming the position.
Prior to his recent decision win, Rakic suffered just his second career loss in a 2019 split decision against Volkan Oezdemir. After losing his first pro fight back in 2011 via R1 Guillotine Choke, Rakic won 12 in a row, including his first four UFC matches, before losing to Oezdemir. Rakic actually outlanded Oezdemir 75-63 in significant strikes, but Oezdemir came out ahead 118-87 in total strikes. Rakic also really struggled to get Oezdemir to the mat, as he went 1 for 9 on takedowns. Oezdemir does own an excellent 80% takedown defense for what it’s worth. That is just Oezdemir’s second win in his last six fights. We also saw a ton of leg kicks in that fight, with Oezdemir leading 21-10 and causing massive swelling just below Rakic’s knee.
Prior to the recent pair of decisions, Rakic landed back-to-back first round knockouts. He finished Devin Clark four minutes into their 2018 match and followed it up with a 46 second violent head kick knockout that left Jimi Manuwa in another dimension.
Rakic started his UFC career off with another pair of decisions. He made his debut in 2017 against Francimar Barroso and fought to a low-volume decision that stayed mostly on the feet as Barroso went 2 for 14 on takedowns. Then Rakic took on Justin Ledet and dominated him on the scoresheet. He outlanded him 104-12 in significant strikes and 263-28 in total strikes. He also won the takedown battle 3-0 and tacked on a ridiculous 12 and a half minutes of control time in the 15 minute fight.
While four of his six UFC fights have ended in decisions, all 9 of his fights prior to joining the organization ended early, with seven KO wins, a submission win and a submission loss. Seven of those nine ended in the first round. Rakic is a powerful fighter who throws violent kicks on the feet and can overpower opponents on the ground.
Thiago Santos
21th UFC Fight (13-7)Four months removed from a third round submission loss to Glover Teixeira, Santos was previously sidelined for 16 months following his July 2019 title fight against Jon Jones where Santos not only lost, but also tore every ligament in his left knee. Despite suffering the devastating injury early in the fight, Santos was able to gut out a solid 25 minutes of output through sheer willpower and determination, so no one can question his toughness.
Upon Santos’ return to the Octagon following his knee surgery, he was taken down four times on seven attempts by Teixeira and assaulted with violent ground and pound. While the significant striking was close in that match, with Teixeira leading just 46-40, the total strikes were far more lopsided at 148-81. Teixeira also accrued nine minutes of control time before ending the fight early in the third round. The fight actually started off well for Santos as he landed several heavy shots in the first round and was able to knockdown Teixeira. However, as Teixeira often does, he survived and was able to get Santos down just 90 seconds into the match after getting rocked. Teixeira was also quickly able to take the fight back to the ground soon after the second round started, and Santos’ takedown defense looked nonexistent. Glover very nearly choked Santos out at the end of the second round but Santos was saved by the bell. Santos actually dropped Teixeira again at the start of the third round and was landing heavy strikes from top position. But again, 90 seconds into the round Teixeira dug deep and used his old man strength to push Santos off and reverse the position, while absorbing leather thumping punishment to his dome. Santos looked exhausted at that point and Teixeira was able to quickly take his back and submit him. For the record, Teixeira has a career 40% takedown accuracy and Santos has a career 64% takedown defense.
A black belt in Muay Thai, Santos won four in a row prior to the Jones fight, including a 2019 R3 KO of now Light Heavyweight champ Jan Blachowicz. His last three wins all came by KO as have six of his last seven and 15 of his 21 career wins. He also has one submission win, but it came all the way back in 2011. Six of his eight career losses have also notably come early, with three KOs and three submissions.
Santos fought at Middleweight (185 lb) until the 2018 Eryk Anders fight when he moved up to Light Heavyweight. He’s 3-2 since the switch. Now 37 years old, with a surgically repaired knee and coming off back-to-back losses, it’s fair to wonder if Santos is still the same fighter that knocked out Jan Blachowicz in early 2019.
Fight Prediction:
Rakic will have a 2” height and reach advantage and is eight years younger than the 38-year-old Santos.
While Santos fought most of his career at 185 lb, Rakic has been a 205 lifer and will be the bigger man here. After seeing how effective Teixeira was taking Santos to the ground, it’s hard to imagine Rakic not coming in with a similar game plan. With that said, Rakic doesn’t seem like the brightest guy, and maybe some of the criticism he drew for his last performance will encourage him to try and make this one more exciting by staying on the feet. While Rakic has never been knocked out, Santos has three KO losses on this record. Rakic has the ability to win this fight on the feet or the mat, but Santos will be reliant on knocking out Rakic or pointing his way to a decision to win. Rakic has notably never been knocked out. We see Rakic winning this one, most likely with another decision, but potentially with a KO. While he checks in as the -160 favorite it’s interesting to see both fighters have the same exact +190 ITD and +400 R1 win odds.
The two lines we’re primarily interested in are “Rakic Wins by Decision” at +260 and “Rakic Wins by R1 KO” at +470. All three of Santo’s career KO losses have come in the first round, as have seven of Rakic’s nine career KO wins. If you want to take a stab on Santo’s side, six of his last seven wins have come by KO, with five of those coming in the second or third rounds. Two of his last three wins have been R3 KOs. “Santos Wins by R2 KO” at +850 and “Santos Wins by R3 KO” at +1600 seem like the best bets.
DFS Implications:
Rakic is a major beneficiary of the new DraftKings scoring system, as he thoroughly enjoys laying on opponents, while throwing huge numbers of ground strikes. In his last two decisions wins (both three round fights), Rakic insanely combined for 24 and a half minutes of control time (out of a possible 30 minutes), 148 significant strikes and 404 total strikes. So while all the ground time/strikes do nothing on FanDuel, he’s practically a DraftKings cheat code. Those two decision wins went for 115 and 64 on FanDuel, but totalled 151 and 99 on DraftKings. Rakic still has eight R1 finishes among his 13 career wins, so he may not qualify as exclusively a DraftKings play, but he’s certainly safer over there and has a much higher upside if this fight doesn’t end early.
Santos has been a solid DFS producer and has scored at least 92 DraftKings points in six of his last seven wins. His only score below that was his most recent low-volume R3 KO of Jan Blachowicz where he scored just 81 points. His previous six wins scored 119, 101, 92, 129, 111 and 99 DraftKings points. Santos has recently made a habit of knocking opponents out in the second and third rounds, with five of his last seven wins coming in such a manner. His only decision win in his last 10 fights scored 92 DraftKings points. His 119 and 129 explosion spots have both resulted from R2 KOs. With a +190 ITD line, Santos has a 29% chance of landing a finish according to the oddsmakers. His R1 win line comes in at +400, implying a 15% chance.
Fight #4
Islam Makhachev
9th UFC Fight (7-1)Entering this match on a six fight winning streak, Makhachev hasn’t stepped inside the Octagon since September 2019. He had been scheduled to fight Alexander “The Average” Hernandez last April, but the event was canceled due to COVID. He was then booked to take on Rafael dos Anjos on the undercard for Khabib vs. Gaethje but RDA contracted COVID. The fight was rebooked as the main event on the November 14th card, but Makhachev withdrew citing an injury. You may remember Paul Felder then stepped in on less than a week’s notice.
Despite going the distance in four of his eight UFC fights, Makhachev has somehow absorbed just 57 total significant strikes in his 75 minutes of UFC Octagon time (0.76 SSA/min). Davi Ramos landed a pathetic 7 significant strikes in Makhachev’s last fight, which went the full 15 minutes, after Tsarukyan landed just 13 in the previous decision. It’s unclear if Makhachev is sedating his opponents before they enter the Octagon or what’s going on here, but he holds the UFC record for fewest strikes absorbed.
A Combat Sambo world champion, Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015 with a perfect 11-0 record. He won his debut with a R2 Rear-Naked Choke Submission, but then got knocked out less than two minutes into his second UFC match—which remains his only career loss. Since that loss, four of his six fights have ended in decisions, with a pair of R1 wins sandwiched in between.
However, 10 of his 18 career wins have come early, with three KOs and seven submissions. Two of his three KOs came in the first round of his first three pro fights back in 2011, but he did land another first round knockout in 2018, which is his only KO win in the UFC. Four of his submission wins have come in the first round, including two by Armbar.
A training partner of Khabib, Makhachev is an exceptional grappler and holds a 93% takedown defense as he’s only been taken down once in the UFC. He also owns a 68% takedown accuracy going against Dober’s 58% takedown defense. If this fight gets to the ground, Dober is in serious trouble, as seven of Makhachev‘s last eight finishes have come by submission.
Drew Dober
16th UFC Fight (9-5, NC)Coming in hot with three straight knockouts, including two in the first round, Dober most recently humbled Alexander Hernandez with a second round bludgeoning. Dober has now won six of his last seven fights, after starting his UFC career 1-3. His only loss in his last seven fights came in a R2 Armbar against a top opponent in Beneil Dariush.
Dober’s last four and 7 of his last 9 fights have ended early and he generally doesn’t require the judges. He’s knocked out two of his last three opponents in 70 seconds or less and 16 of his 23 pro wins have come early. On the other side of things, he’s only been knocked out in one of his nine losses, which came all the way back in 2011, but he’s been submitted in his last three losses. His other five career losses all ended in decisions.
Dober is an excellent striker with lethal punches. While he does have six submissions on this record, all but one of those came prior to joining the UFC and he really doesn’t have much of a ground game. While he can stand and strike with just about anybody, he does not want to end up on the mat here.
Fight Prediction:
Makhachev will have a 2” height advantage, but both fighters share a 70” reach.
With Dober’s last three losses all coming by submission, this matchup couldn’t get much worse for him. The lone reason for optimism is that Makhachev was knocked out in the first round of his only career loss, and knocking opponents out early is what Dober does best. Gameplans don’t come much easier for Makhachev, as he goes up against a powerful striker who’s shown he’s vulnerable on the ground. Makhachev should look to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible, but if he doesn’t, he deserves to get knocked out by Dober. Barring Dober landing a clean chin check as Makhachev looks to enter, look for Makhachev to submit Dober in the first two rounds.
Dober’s last three losses have all come by submission in the first two rounds, with the last two coming in R2. Seven of Makhachev‘s last eight finishes have also come by submission. We like Makhachev‘s Submission line at at +420 as well as his R1 Submission line at +1000 and R2 Submission line at +1400. On the other side of things, Makhachev‘s only career loss was a R1 KO and four of Dober’s last five knockouts came in the first round, so “Dober Wins by R1 KO” at +1500 is also in play. We also like “Under 1.5 Rounds” at +250.
DFS Implications:
Makhachev’s price tag, recent results, low striking volume and extended layoff will all likely lower his DFS ownership, but this actually sets up as a great spot for him to score well. Prior to his recent pair of decisions, Makhachev had scored 102 or more DraftKings points in three straight fights after also scoring 107 points in his 2015 UFC debut. The oddsmakers seem to think he most likely wins another decision here, but we don’t see it getting that far. Dober should push the pace of this fight, while also offering less resistance in the grappling game than Makhachev’s last two opponents, which is the perfect recipe for a Makhachev submission win. Considering his exorbitant price and non-existent striking volume—both landed and absorbed—this is a high-risk pivot off of other more heavily owned top priced fighters.
Dober has been a stud lately with three straight early knockouts. He’s notched DraftKings totals of 96, 105 and 107 in his last three outings and now checks in as the second cheapest fighter on the DraftKings slate. It will be interesting to see how heavily owned he is by the field given his exceptional recent track record but tough matchup. Makhachev has been doing his best MC Hammer impression since joining the UFC and gets touched less than a strip club buffet. So Dober’s only path to victory appears to be an early finish. With that said, the oddsmakers are still implying he has a 25% chance to win this fight, but just a 15% chance to end it early. At his price, a finish would almost certainly catapult him into the optimal lineup.
Fight #3
Petr Yan
8th UFC Fight (7-0)After winning the vacant Bantamweight belt back in July against Jose Aldo, Yan had been scheduled to make his first title defense against Sterling back in December, but withdrew for “Personal Reasons” and pushed it back three months.
Yan comes in on a 10 fight winning streak and 15-1 as a pro. His only career loss occurred prior to joining the UFC in a 2016 five round split decision against Magomed Magomedov. Yan avenged the loss a year later in another five round decision against Magomedov. He then fought once more, where he landed a R3 KO, before joining the UFC in 2018.
In his 2018 UFC debut, Yan was paired up with Teruto Ishihara, who came in having lost three of his last four fights and has now lost six of his last seven. Yan knocked out Ishihara in the first round, which remains his only R1 win since his 4th pro fight back in 2015. Following his near perfect debut, Yan took on Jin Soo Son, who was making his own debut. Yan won a unanimous decision, winning the striking battle 100-58 in significant strikes. For what it’s worth, Jin Soo Son is now 0-2 in the UFC.
Yan then got his first opponent with a winning record in the UFC, Douglas Silva de Andrade, who came in 3-2 in the organization but also with an extensive 22 fight win streak prior to joining the UFC. Andrade had never been knocked out in his career, but following the second round his corner threw in the towel based on the beating he was taking, giving Yan his second TKO in the UFC. Yan then convincingly beat a tough John Dodson, who was the last person to take Yan down (2 for 8 on attempts). Yan outlanded Doson 80-30 in significant strikes and won a unanimous 30-27 decision, but Dodson was notably able to knock Yan down at one point.
Yan then won another decision, this time against Jimmie Rivera, who was coming off a decision loss to Sterling. After losing the significant striking battle 101-24 against Sterling, Rivera actually outlanded Yan 73-56. However, Yan was able to land a pair of knockdowns and a takedown on his way to winning a unanimous decision.
After winning that pair of decisions, Yan took on a 40-year-old Urijah Faber in a clear mismatch. Yan landed a crazy three knockdowns, two takedowns and outlanded Faber 54-18 in significant strikes before finishing him in the beginning of the third round. The fight was nearly stopped a round earlier as Faber was busted up bad, but the doctor let it continue. That win was enough to propel Yan into the recent Bantamweight title fight against Aldo.
Yan looked to hurt Aldo’s ribs early in the fight, but in terms of striking numbers they were actually extremely close early on. While the final significant striking total of 194-83 tells a different story, it wasn’t until late in that fight that Yan really pulled away in terms of the numbers. And if it wasn’t for the ref allowing Yan to land an extra 80 strikes or so on a bloodied, battered and bruised face down Aldo, the final tally wouldn’t have ended up nearly as high.
Yan is a patient boxer who wears on his opponents with his crisp, powerful striking, but rarely ends things in the opening minutes of fights. He has just two round one KOs in his career, and only one in his last 12 fights. In his seven UFC fights, he’s won three decisions and has four KOs (R1, R2, R3 & R5). He has an impressive 88% takedown defense, and his last three opponents have combined to go 0 for 7 on their attempts. While he’s not a submission threat (one career submission win by Guillotine Choke in 2015), he has landed nine takedowns of his own in his last five fights.
Aljamain Sterling
15th UFC Fight (11-3)Coming off his first R1 win in his 14 fight UFC career, Sterling submitted Cory Sandhagen in 88 seconds with a Rear-Naked Choke. He’s on an impressive five fight winning streak with consecutive wins over Sandhagen, Munhoz, Rivera, Stamann, and Johns. Three of those wins came in decisions, while the other two were submissions in the first two rounds. This upcoming match will be his first five round fight in the UFC.
The only time Sterling has been finished in 22 pro fights was when Marlon Moraes knocked him out cold with a perfect knee to the chin as Sterling shot in for a reckless takedown a minute into their 2017 match. His only other two career losses were a pair of decisions against Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
After the loss to Moraes, Sterling beat a 15-0 Brett Johns in a lopsided unanimous 30-27 decision, outlanding him 89-27 in significant strikes and 3-1 in takedowns. Next, Sterling took on a tough Cody Stamann, who was on a 10 fight winning streak and 3-0 in the UFC. Sterling showed just how impressive his grappling skills are against an elite wrestler in Stamann. Sterling ended the fight in R2 with a rare Kneebar, leaving Stamann writhing in agony on the mat.
Following the submission win, Sterling took on another highly ranked opponent in #5 Jimmie Rivera who had won 21 of his last 22 fights. Sterling was one of the few people to really make Rivera look bad. He masterfully used his length and reach advantage to control distance and badly outland Rivera 101-24 in significant strikes. Despite going 0 for 7 on takedowns against Rivera’s elite 92% takedown defense, Sterling easily cruised to another unanimous 30-27 decision.
Sterling then took on a surging Pedro Munhoz, who’s stock was at an all time high after he had just knocked out Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway in back-to-back first rounds and defeated Brett Johns in a decision. Again, Sterling did a great job of controlling distance and using his reach to his advantage. He also showcased his elusiveness to avoid the majority of Munhoz’s strikes, who landed with just a 39% accuracy. Once against Sterling went up against an opponent with an elite takedown defense, this time 80%, and once again he went 0 for 7 on takedowns. However, he showed that he’s not just a wrestler and impressively outlanded Munhoz 174-105 in significant strikes in this high-paced brawling three round decision, which Sterling won unanimously 30-27.
Most recently, Sterling took on another red hot opponent in #4 ranked Cory Sandhagen, who came in undefeated in the UFC and on a seven fight win streak. Sterling showed he doesn’t need to get opponents to the ground to take their backs, as he backpacked Sandhagen on his feet and went after his neck. After falling backwards onto the mat and then attempting to escape, Sandhagen tapped 88 seconds into the fight just as he lost consciousness.
Sterling has 11 UFC wins, with six decisions, a third round KO back in 2014, and four submissions (R1, R2 x2 & R3). Of his 19 career wins, 10 have come early with two knockouts and eight submissions. He’s an elite grappler, with an underrated standup game and good mobility.
Fight Prediction:
Both fighters are 5’7” but Sterling will have a 4” reach advantage.
Yan hasn’t been fighting bums, but Sterling has unquestionably fought tougher competition to this point. Sterling looks to be Yan’s toughest opponent to date. While this fight has been built up as the striking of Yan versus the grappling of Sterling, we think it could easily play out nearly entirely on the feet if Yan’s 88% takedown defense can continue to hold up. Sterling has gone 0 for 15 on takedowns in his last three fights and has just a 29% career takedown accuracy. However, he hasn’t needed to land takedowns to win any of those matches, so we shouldn’t assume he can’t win a striking battle here. Yan is certainly the superior boxer, but Sterling does a great job of maximizing his reach and controlling distance.
Spacing will be essential in this matchup as Sterling likes to keep opponents a little further away while Yan wants to fight in a phonebooth. That will likely result in Yan pushing forward and Sterling retreating for the duration of this match. Pedro Munhoz took that approach when he fought Sterling to a three round decision and that turned into an absolute barnburner with Sterling going 174 of 349 (11.6 SSL/min) on significant strikes and Munhoz going 105 of 265 (7 SSL/min). If we get anything close to that pace, this has the potential to be Fight of the Night. However, if Sterling is able to get this fight to the ground he’s a legitimate threat to end it early as he has elite grappling skills. That remains the wildcard in this matchup. With that said, we don’t see this fight ending in the early rounds and think a late round finish or a decision are more likely.
It will be interesting to see how Sterling’s cardio holds up in the championship rounds, as this will be his first five round fight in the UFC. He did have four five rounders before joining the UFC, but only one of those made it beyond the third round and that was all the way back in 2011. Yan has only had one five round fight in the UFC, but he went the full 25 minutes in two fights shortly before joining the organization and seemed fine in the 5th round in his last match. As the odds suggest, this one could go either way, but we give the edge to Yan if his takedown defense can hold up. We think he most likely either gets a late KO or wins by decision.
While this fight could go either way, we’re confident it makes it to the back half. So “Sterling/Yan Over 2.5 rounds” at -174 makes sense and to a slightly lesser extent “Sterling/Yan Ends in Decision” at +118. If you’re looking for a longer shot, check out “Yan R4 KO” at +2400 and/or “Yan R5 KO” at +2900.
DFS Implications:
Yan has been a knockdown machine, with six in his last three fights. Sterling notably has only been knocked down three times in 14 UFC fights, and two of those came in one round against Marlon Moraes. Yan has also consistently tacked on a takedown or two to help bolster his DFS scores, but he’s less likely to want to take this fight to the mat. Yan’s recent 154 point DraftKings explosion needs to be taken with some context, as Yan landed about 80 additional strikes after most refs would have already stopped the fight. While his three UFC decisions all scored just 78-79 DraftKings points, if you project that volume over five rounds it would still be good for about 112 points. And whether his KOs have come in the first, second, third or fifth rounds, he’s consistently scored well with totals of 121, 127, 111 and 154 on DraftKings. Those finishes score even better on FanDuel with totals of 145, 147, 139 and 162. With an elite 88% takedown defense, and very little time spent grappling, he’s really built to score better on FanDuel in general, but he’s shown he can be a solid scorer on both sites. While it’s tough to take a super hard stand on this fight, it makes total sense to have significantly more exposure to Yan on FanDuel, while being more balanced on DraftKings if you play on both sites.
Sterling has been a fairly consistent DFS scorer in his wins with DraftKings totals of 95, 100, 81, 104, 94, 82, and 100. While he hasn’t been one to put up massive scores, he also hasn’t been in any five round fights that would really allow him to show his true ceiling. His recent takedown accuracy—or really inaccuracy—has limited his ability to put up a complete performance that really fills up a stats sheet. This sets up as yet another brutal matchup for landing takedowns, so we can’t rely on him turning that around Saturday. With that said, after failing to land over 89 significant strikes in his first 11 UFC fights, Sterling now has totals of 101 and 174 in his last two fights to last longer than 90 seconds. He seems to have really improved his striking compared to earlier in his career. At his reasonable DFS price tag, it’s hard to see Sterling not ending up in the optimal lineup with a win, which is why we fully expect him to be the most popular underdog on the slate.
Fight #2
Amanda Nunes
14th UFC Fight (13-1)Looking at Nunes now, you would never guess that she had a stretch from 2011 to 2014 where she somehow went 3-3. However, since switching to American Top Team in 2014 Nunes has been unstoppable[if that’s not a ringing endorsement for her old team at MMA Masters we don’t know what is]. She’s won her last 11 fights, including R1 knockouts of Rounda Rousey, Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm. She also choked out Olympic wrestler Sara McMann as well as Miesha Tate in the first round and beat current Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko TWICE—to the extent that Shevchenko then smartly fled the Bantamweight division following the second loss. Nunes has also defeated Germaine de Randamie twice in her career.
After winning seven fights in a row at Bantamweight (135 lb), including winning the belt and then defending it three straight times, Nunes decided she was bored at 135 lb and decided to take on the Featherweights (145 lb). She made her 2018 Featherweight debut against Cris Cyborg for the Featherweight belt and knocked out the three time Featherweight champ in 51 seconds.
After claiming her second belt, Nunes dropped back to 135 lb to defend her first. She took on a tough Holly Holm, who came in having never been knocked out in her career. Nunes changed that just over four minutes into the fight with a violent head kick that sent Holm traveling through time.
Since she had already made the effort to cut back down to 135 lb, Nunes decided to make one more appearance before tending to her Featherweight foes. Nunes took on Germaine de Randamie, who she had already defeated once back in 2013. As the judges’ scores would suggest (44-49, 46-49, 45-49), Nunes controlled the fight, but did absorb some shots at times and looked a little reckless/vulnerable with upkicks from a grounded GDR. Nunes impressively landed eight takedowns and racked up over 18 minutes of control time, while also doubling the number of GDR’s significant strikes landed (79-40).
Nunes then moved back up to 145 lb and absolutely dominated Felicia Spencer in a five round decision. Nunes outlanded Spencer 124-42 in significant strikes and won the takedown battle 6-0, while also defending all seven of Spencer’s attempts and accruing eight minutes of control time. Based on the amount of damage Nunes handed out, the fight easily could have been stopped, but Spencer toughed it out to survive to see the judges.
This next fight will be Nunes’ fourth career bout at 145 lb and third in the UFC. A BJJ black belt and Judo brown belt, the pure joy and exuberance that Nunes finds in fighting is unmatched. Of her 20 career wins, 16 have come early, with 13 KOs and three submissions. Interestingly, three of her four career losses have also come early, although one of those was a 2008 R1 Armbar in her first pro fight. The other two were a 2011 R2 KO from ground and pound at the hands of Alexis Davis and a 2014 R3 KO against Cat Zingano which also ended in ground and pound. However, what was once a vulnerability for Nunes, with the ground game, she appears to have turned into a strength over the last half decade.
Megan Anderson
6th UFC Fight (3-2)Anderson came into the UFC in 2018 with an 8-2 pro record and was immediately matched up against Holly Holm—giving you an idea of how the UFC viewed her. Holm completely controlled Anderson in a wrestling heavy performance where she landed four takedowns and nearly 11 minutes of control time. She only outlanded Anderson 47-26 in significant strikes but that grew to 143-48 in total strikes. Following the loss in her debut, Anderson bounced back with a R1 KO win in her second UFc fight.
If you’re looking for shred of hope that Anderson has a chance to defeat the GOAT here, you could look at the fact that Anderson knocked out Cat Zingano in R1 of their 2018 match, and Zingano was the last person to defeat Nunes back in 2014. Although by that line of reasoning, you would then need to look at the fact that Anderson’s two UFC losses came against Felicia Spencer and Holly Holm—two of the recent victims to get mauled by the Lioness’. So probably best we don’t go down that path. Also Anderson’s finish of Zingano was super flukey as Anderson landed a toe to the eye of Zingano and the ref had to stop the fight immediately because Zingano couldn’t see and wasn’t defending herself. Really that just goes to show that anything can happen in a fight and if Anderson has been honing her eye-gouging kicks that could be her best weapon in this next match.
After transforming Zingano into a pirate, Anderson took on future Nunes training dummy, Felicia Spencer who was making her UFC debut. Spencer was able to submit Anderson midway through the first round with a Rear-Naked Choke, taking advantage of her vulnerable ground game.
Once again, Anderson bounced back from a loss, this time in her native Australia on the undercard for Whittaker vs. Adesanya. After getting submitted in her previous match, Anderson was the one looking to take the fight to the mat in this next one against another fighter making her UFC debut in Zarah Fairn dos Santos. Albeit in a meniscal sample size, Anderson’s ground game looked somewhat improved. However, after spending a few minutes in top position, Anderson got reversed, but was quickly able to throw up a Triangle Choke off her back and end the fight with a minute to go in the first round.
Anderson then took on Norma Dumont, another opponent making her UFC debut, and was able to put her down with a single right cross after spending a couple of minutes pushed up against the cage. Dumont struggled to get Anderson and her insanely long, powerful legs to the ground, but was able to land one brief takedown on three official attempts. Anderson, however, was able to get back up immediately and shortly thereafter ended the fight.
Anderson’s last four fights have all ended in the first round, with her winning three of those. It’s interesting that after giving Megan Anderson two very established UFC veterans in her first two UFC fights, they gave her three straight women making their UFC debuts. It’s almost like they wanted to build Anderson up for a title fight or something.
Anderson has just under 27 total minutes of Octagon time in her five fight UFC career—just slightly more than Nunes accrued in her last match. Anderson’s three UFC wins have come from an unfortunate eye injury, tripping into a Triangle Choke, and a single right cross. Barring another flukey finish, it’s hard to imagine Anderson outclassing Nunes over the duration of this match. With that said, we’ve seen so little from Anderson in the UFC that she remains somewhat of an unknown and clearly has solid striking ability. While she only landed 26 significant strikes in her 2018 debut, that’s still more than she landed in her next four fights combined (23), which all ended in the first round. She has successfully defended seven of the 13 takedown attempts against her so far in the UFC. The majority of those came in her UFC debut, where Holm (30% career takedown accuracy) landed 4 takedowns on eight attempts. Holm notably only had two takedowns combined in her previous eight UFC fights, before taking Anderson down four times.
In her 15 pro bouts, Anderson is 11-4 with nine finishes, including six KOs and three submissions. Six of those finishes came in the first round. Of her four pro losses, two have ended in decision and two came by submission—she has never been knocked out. Her two submission losses were a 2015 R2 Triangle Choke and a 2019 R1 Rear-Naked Choke.
Fight Prediction:
Anderson will have a considerable 4” height advantage and 3” reach advantage.
While Nunes has fought most of her career at 135 lb, Anderson is a giant and is a true 45er. However, the same could have been said when Nunes took on Cris Cyborg. The size difference really feels like the only thing you can point to when trying to find a reason to think that Anderson has a chance. Anderson has had a few flukey wins, but really hasn’t put on a single impressive performance in the UFC. She seems like a pretty raw fighter still, and hopefully the UFC isn’t stunting her growth by putting her in such a big spot so early on.
Nunes is a savage, but we don’t need to tell you that. Once she gets this fight to the mat Anderson will have no chance. The tougher question to answer is how does this fight end? Anderson looks most vulnerable to being submitted on the ground, but just 3 of Nunes’ 20 career wins have come by submission and the last one was in 2016. Since then, she has three decision wins and four knockouts—including three in the first round. Anderson has never been knocked out and we haven’t really seen her chin get tested at the UFC level. However it ends, all roads lead to Nunes.
Not much value stands out in the lines on this fight and it’s tough to say how/when Nunes will win this fight. With that said, you might consider “Nunes R1 KO” at +300, “Nunes Wins by Decision” at +440 or “Nunes R5 KO” +3100.
DFS Implications:
Nunes has been a DFS dominatrix, with DraftKings scores of 107 or more in her last eight fights against everyone not named Shevchenko, and four scores of 126 or more. Nunes’ first fight against Shevchenko was only a three round match so it’s understandable that it only scored 69 points in a decision. Her second match was just a lower volume five round decision (80 points) that lacked the knockdowns or high number of takedowns that have resulted in some of Nunes’ scoring explosions. Keep in mind, Shevchenko is absolutely terrorizing the Flyweight division, has a 75% career takedown defense and only absorbs 2.03 SS/min, so pretty understandable not to put up big DFS scores against her. Nunes has averaged 40% control time in her last five fights, which is great for the new DraftKings scoring system. She’s also landed 14 combined takedowns in her last two matches and now goes against an opponent with a 53% takedown defense.
This will be Nunes’ 9th straight title fight. In her previous eight, she went to three decisions, finished four opponents in the first round and had one 5th round knockout. She averaged 121.7 points in those three decisions (126, 159 & 80) and 119.6 points in those five finishes (107, 140, 118, 126 & 107). The last time Nunes fought, she was somehow just 59% owned on DraftKings on a 12 fight slate. This will be Nunes’ third UFC fight at 145 lb. In her 145 lb debut she knocked out Cris Cyborg in 51 seconds and scored 140 DraftsKings points. Her second 145 lb match came in her last Octagon appearance, where she dominated Felicia Spencer for five rounds and scored 126 DraftKings points. Whether this fight ends in the first round or goes to a decision, Nunes can put up a huge score in DFS. She’s easily the best play on the slate, which is why she’ll also be the highest owned.
Anderson has put up big DraftKings scores in her last two fights so hopefully that will convince a few people to play her. She looks like a decent prospect, but it feels like the UFC is rushing her into a title fight because they ran out of warm bodies. She’ll have no answer to Nune’s heavy top pressure on the ground—assuming the fight lasts long enough to get there. If you play Anderson, you’re really just hoping for a miracle finish or some sort of freak accident. Her R1 win line is set at a flatlined +2500, giving her roughly a 3% chance, which seems fair. Her ITD line is set at +1000, implying roughly a 8% chance. Her moneylines line is +650, implying a 13% chance. All of those lines seem generous if anything.
Fight #1
Israel Adesanya
10th UFC Fight (9-0)Bored with the Middleweight division, Adesanya has decided to take his talents to Light Heavyweight. This will be his first pro MMA fight at 205 lb, which adds an element of the unknown to this matchup. He comes in not only 9-0 in the UFC, but 20-0 as a pro. This will be his 5th straight title fight and 8th five round fight of his career (two were prior to joining the UFC). He landed a pair of R1 KOs in his two five round title fights before he joined the UFC, however, in his five UFC five round fights he beat Brad Tavares in a 2018 decision, then won the Interim Middleweight Belt against Kelvin Gastelum in a 2019 decision, followed by a R2 KO over Robert Whittaker for the Undisputed Middleweight Belt, and then defended the belt with a decision win over Yoel Romero, before finally defending the belt again with another R2 KO over Paulo Costa. So three of his five UFC five round fights have gone the distance, while he’s landed a pair of R2 knockouts in the other two.
After switching over from kickboxing, Adesanya won his first 11 pro fights by knockout—all in the first two rounds. He then came into the UFC in 2018 and continued that trend with another R2 KO. However, since then he has been to five decisions compared to just three knockouts. Three of his four UFC knockouts came in the second round, while his lone first round finish in the organization was a late KO against Derek Brunson with 9 seconds remaining in the period. Looking at his entire pro career, seven of his 15 knockouts have come in R1, while eight have occured in R2.
Adesanya’s calculated counter punching fighting style generally requires his opponent to be the aggressor for him to land a finish. Prior to his recent dismantlement of Paulo Costa, Adesanya fought Yoel Romero to a bizarre ultra low-volume, 25 minute stand-up decision, where we only saw a total of 88 significant strikes landed between the two fighters (Adesanya 48 total, 1.92 SS/min & Romero 40 total, 1.6 SS/min). For the majority of the fight, Romero was content with looking to land violent counter punches, just hoping Adesanya would walk into one. Adesanya mostly attacked Romero’s legs from the outside, smartly knowing that trading in a phone booth with a gorilla wasn’t his path to victory. From the reaction of the crowd (and anyone with eyes), it was clear that no one enjoyed the show. Adesanya was fully aware of the visuals and appeared to come into his next match with a chip on his shoulder.
Now having reestablished himself as an “exciting fighter” it will be interesting to see if he pushes the pace quite as hard, especially considering he’s moving up a weight class and now going against a more powerful opponent. One last thing to consider with the move up to 205 lb, Adesanya consistently weighed in below the 185 lb limit with weigh-in results of 184, 184.5, 184, and 183 lb in his last four fights. He’s mentioned in past interviews that he normally walks around at just over 200 lb, which would be small for a Light Heavyweight. Make sure to pay attention to how he looks on the scales Friday. UPDATE: Izzy weighed in at 200.5 lb.
Jan Blachowicz
16th UFC Fight (10-5)Looking to make his first title defense after winning the Light Heavyweight belt with a R2 knockout of Dominick Reyes last September, Blachowicz has the unenviable task of welcoming Adesanya to the division.
Now 38 years old, Jan is coming off back-to-back knockout victories with a violent R1 KO win over Corey Anderson followed by a R2 KO of Reyes to win the vacant belt. The R1 finish of Anderson was Blachowicz’s first R1 win since his 2014 UFC debut, but he has still landed knockouts in the first two rounds in three of his last four fights. He’s also won his last four fights and eight of his last nine. Two of those eight wins came by second round submissions, three were by knockout and the other three ended in decisions. His lone loss over that period was a R3 KO at the hands of Thiago Santos. His previous four losses to that all came in decisions.
While Jan’s knockout of Anderson was impressive, it’s not something that hasn’t been done before. Anderson’s last three losses were all by KO. However, finishing Reyes was something that we had never seen before. Reyes entered that fight 12-1 as a pro with his only career loss coming against Jon Jones in a controversial decision. Jan’s third most recent knockout was against Luke Rockhold who has been knocked out in three of his last four fights.
Because he has such power, people are quick to forget that Jan actually has more career submission wins (9) than KOs (8). He submitted a pair of grapplers in Devin Clark and Nikita Krylov, both in the second round, in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Interestingly, 7 of his 9 career submission wins have come in the second round. Adesanya has a legit 86% takedown defense and has only been taken down once in his last six fights, but if this fight were to get to the mat, he could be in trouble.
After starting his UFC career off with a R1 KO, Jan fought to five straight decisions, losing four of them. That’s when he seemed to turn a corner and began his most recent nine fight stretch with eight victories. Jan has only been finished in three of his eight career losses over 35 pro fights, and only once in his five UFC losses—the 2019 R3 KO against Thiago Santos. The other two early losses of his career were a 2011 Post R2 “Retirement” KO and a 2007 R1 Kimura Submission. So in the last decade, he’s just been finished one time. Now he faces an opponent moving up a weight class for the first time, who’s fought to decisions in 5 of his last 8 fights, including three that went five full rounds.
Adesanya vs. Blachowicz Fight Prediction:
Adesanya will have a 2” height and reach advantage.
This sets up as a pace down chess match between two counter strikers. Both fighters are exceptional at not absorbing many blows. In Jan’s last fight, Reyes did land 10 of 11 leg strikes on Jan in less than 10 minutes of action, which is important to note because that’s how we expect Adesanya to begin things in this next one. It likely goes without saying, but Adesanya is the quicker fighter, while Jan offers more power. Adesanya is so fast, it will be hard for Jan to land anything clean.
If this fight were to end early, it’s noteworthy that three of Adesanya’s four UFC KO wins and 8 of his 15 career KOs have come in the second round (his other 7 all came in R1). Jan has only been knocked out twice in his career—once in R2 and another time in R3 (only UFC early loss). On the other side of things, seven of Jan’s nine career submission wins have also come in the second round and all eight of his career knockouts have been in the first two rounds (5 in R1 & 3 in R2). Neither one of these fighters have ever landed a finish beyond the second round. We’re expecting a lower volume decision win for Adesanya, but if this does end early, look for things to wrap up in the second round.
We don’t really like any of the lines here, but if you insist on getting some skin in the game you can look at “Adesanya Wins by Decision” at +250, “Adesanya Wins by R2 KO” at +650 or “Blachowicz Wins by R2 Submission” at +3200 or “Blachowicz Wins in R2” at +1000.
DFS Implications:
Adesanya is able to rely on his elite evasiveness to avoid taking much damage in fights. With a kickboxing background and zero career takedowns, he’s heavily reliant on knockdowns to score well in DFS—in fact he’s never scored over 100 DraftKings points without one. With that said, this guy knocks more people down than icy parking lots. He amazingly has 10 knockdowns in his last six fights, and somehow knocked Derek Brunson down three times in less than a round. He also had a ridiculous four knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum over 25 minutes, two against Robert Whittaker in a little over eight minutes and most recently, one against Paulo Costa in nine minutes. However, Jan is a tough guy to knockdown and in his 15 UFC fights the only person to ever do so was Thiago Santos when he knocked Jan out in R3 of their 2019 main event. If we remove all of the knockdowns from Adesanya’s DraftKings scores, he would be left with totals of 92, 49, 86, 77, 56, 96, 82, 55 and 94 in the UFC. So if this goes to a decision and Adesanya fails to knock Jan down, it’s very easy to see him being left out of the optimal lineup. With that said the oddsmakers still expect it to end early, setting the overall ITD line at -200 (64%). Specifically looking at Adesanya’s +120 ITD line, he has roughly a 39% chance to get a finish once you account for the rake.
Jan has generally struggled to put up big scores in DFS, but has been fairly consistent in wins. He has just one R1 win in his last 10 fights and just two in his total 15 UFC fights. That 2020 R1 KO of Corey Anderson was the only time Jan broke the century mark on DraftKings and he didn’t exactly blow by it with a total of 105. His other totals in wins were 96, 65, 94, 91, 94, 88, and 96. So outside of his one low-volume five round decision win over Souza where he put up just 65 DraftKings points, he has consistently scored between 88 and 96 points in his other six wins, with four second round finishes (2 KOs & 2 Submissions) and a pair of three round decisions. At his price, a win would give Jan a great chance of ending up in the optimal, as long as it isn’t another 65 point performance similar to the Sozua result, which is possible. His +210 moneyline implies he has a 31% chance of winning, while his +290 ITD line implies roughly a 22% chance.
Good luck to everyone this week, we hope you win big! Tag us on Twitter with your winnings so we can see how you did! @dfs_mma